About hockeystats.io

What is this?

Inspired by the now defunct Sports Club Stats, hockeystats.io calculates each team's probability of making the playoffs, winning their division, winning their conference, and winning the Stanley Cup using Monte Carlo simulation.

How does it work?

The system uses a Monte Carlo simulation approach to calculate playoff probabilities:

  1. Data Collection: We fetch current standings, schedules, and statistics from the NHL API
  2. Team Strength Calculation: Each team is assigned a strength rating based on:
    • Pythagorean expectation (goals for/against ratio)
    • Actual win percentage
    • Recent form (last 10 games)
    • Home/away splits
  3. Season Simulation: We simulate the remainder of the regular season 100,000 times:
    • Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings
    • Home ice advantage is factored in (~55% win rate for home teams)
    • ~25% of games go to overtime/shootout (loser gets 1 point)
  4. Playoff Qualification: After each simulation, we determine which 16 teams make the playoffs using full NHL tiebreaker rules:
    • Top 3 teams from each division (12 teams)
    • 2 wildcard teams from each conference (4 teams)
    • Tiebreakers: Points, Regulation Wins, ROW, Games Played, Goal Differential, Goals For
  5. Probability Calculation: The percentage of simulations where each outcome occurs becomes the probability

What are the columns?

  • GP, W, L, OTL, PTS: Games played, wins, losses, overtime losses, and points (current season)
  • GF, GA, DIFF: Goals for, goals against, and goal differential
  • PO: Points out of a playoff spot (blank if already in one)
  • Last 10: Visual streak of the last 10 games (green = win, red = loss, yellow = OT loss)
  • Playoff %: Probability of making the playoffs
  • Div %: Probability of finishing first in the division
  • Conf %: Probability of winning the conference
  • Cup %: Probability of winning the Stanley Cup
  • WPN%: Win percentage needed in remaining games for a 95% chance of making the playoffs (checkmark if already above 95%)

Methodology

Our simulation methodology is inspired by the original Sports Club Stats website, which provided similar playoff probability calculations for NHL, NBA, MLB, and NFL. The key formula used is:

Pythagorean Win % = GF² / (GF² + GA²)

This is combined with actual performance metrics and recent form to create a comprehensive team strength rating.

Data Sources

All NHL data is fetched from the official NHL Stats API (api-web.nhle.com). The data is updated multiple times per day during the season to ensure accuracy.

Limitations

  • Simulations do not account for injuries, trades, or lineup changes
  • Team strength is based on past performance, which may not predict future results
  • Playoff bracket simulation is simplified and does not model specific matchups in detail
  • Results are probabilistic - low probability events can and do happen!