hockeystats.io

Montréal CanadiensMTL 2–5 Final Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

Wednesday, October 8, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Montréal CanadiensMTL 110 2 31
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 113 5 27

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
1:00 TOR Bobby McMann (1) William Nylander (1), John Tavares (1) · tip-in xG 0.08 0–1 ▶
5:39 MTL Oliver Kapanen (1)SH Unassisted · wrist xG 0.04 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
1:30 MTL Zachary Bolduc (1) Brendan Gallagher (1), Kirby Dach (1) · backhand xG 0.23 2–1 ▶
5:40 TOR Calle Jarnkrok (1) Morgan Rielly (1), Steven Lorentz (1) · wrist xG 0.11 2–2 ▶
3rd Period
9:02 TOR Morgan Rielly (1) Matthew Knies (1), Matias Maccelli (1) · wrist xG 0.20 2–3 ▶
18:28 TOR Auston Matthews (1)EN William Nylander (2) · wrist xG 0.75 2–4 ▶
19:45 TOR William Nylander (1)EN Steven Lorentz (2), John Tavares (2) · backhand xG 0.92 2–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

MTL 75%Deserve to win25% TOR
MTLTOR
3.35Expected goals3.57
2Goals (no shootout)5
2.38Expected goals, 5 on 51.78
68Shot attempts49
47Unblocked attempts35
31Shots on goal27

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
11:44 MTL Deserve to win Deserve to win · MTL takes the lead, 62–38%
TOR had led since 1:00 of the 1st, by as much as 61%
2nd Period
19:20 MTL xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced TOR 1.22–0.16
In xG over 10 minutes, 9:20 to 19:20 of the 2nd; neither team scored
3rd Period
18:11 MTL Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Montembeault, down 3–2
With 1:49 left; TOR scored at 18:28 of the 3rd (2–4)

Shot map

MTL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TOR shoots
Jake McCabe: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 0:27) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 0:54) Arber Xhekaj: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:23) Juraj Slafkovský: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:16) Juraj Slafkovský: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 2:33) Nick Robertson: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:07) Josh Anderson: backhand, 24 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 5:22) Max Domi: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 5:50) Bobby McMann: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 6:12) Alex Newhook: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 6:28) Nick Suzuki: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 7:16) Juraj Slafkovský: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:50) Zachary Bolduc: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.36 (P1 11:44) Max Domi: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 12:17) Cole Caufield: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:06) John Tavares: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 16:35) Kirby Dach: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 16:47) Lane Hutson: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:47) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 19:58) Auston Matthews: tip-in, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 0:45) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:48) Oliver Kapanen: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:09) Brendan Gallagher: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 1:28) Lane Hutson: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 1:47) Chris Tanev: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:55) Arber Xhekaj: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:03) Morgan Rielly: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 5:27) Josh Anderson: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 5:54) Nick Suzuki: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 7:00) Nick Robertson: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 7:21) Max Domi: slap, 27 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 7:23) Simon Benoit: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:02) Simon Benoit: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 8:05) Morgan Rielly: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:43) John Tavares: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 9:02) Juraj Slafkovský: tip-in, 25 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 10:18) Mike Matheson: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:00) William Nylander: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:50) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:04) Matthew Knies: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 13:08) Kirby Dach: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:33) Lane Hutson: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 14:38) Zachary Bolduc: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 14:39) Cole Caufield: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 14:40) Cole Caufield: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 14:53) Jake Evans: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 16:55) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:25) John Tavares: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 18:24) Juraj Slafkovský: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 18:51) Juraj Slafkovský: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 18:52) Mike Matheson: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:00) Juraj Slafkovský: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 19:15) Nick Suzuki: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 19:16) Nick Suzuki: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:18) Cole Caufield: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 0:27) Bobby McMann: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 0:55) Jake Evans: backhand, 163 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 5:18) Cole Caufield: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 7:58) Noah Dobson: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 8:16) Juraj Slafkovský: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 8:22) Lane Hutson: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 8:48) Matthew Knies: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 8:57) Ivan Demidov: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 10:25) Brandon Carlo: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 10:47) Nick Robertson: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 11:09) Nick Robertson: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 11:10) Dakota Joshua: tip-in, 92 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 13:29) Arber Xhekaj: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:57) Alex Newhook: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:09) Juraj Slafkovský: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 16:16) Max Domi: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:52) Cole Caufield: tip-in, 4 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 18:16) Nick Suzuki: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:47) Patrik Laine: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:56) Patrik Laine: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 19:08) Bobby McMann: GOAL, tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 1:00) Oliver Kapanen: GOAL, wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 5:39) Zachary Bolduc: GOAL, backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.23 (P2 1:30) Calle Jarnkrok: GOAL, wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 5:40) Morgan Rielly: GOAL, wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 9:02) Auston Matthews: GOAL, wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.75 (P3 18:28) William Nylander: GOAL, backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.92 (P3 19:45)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Montréal Canadiens

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
14 Nick Suzuki 000 -3 70.25 1120:42
13 Cole Caufield 000 -3 80.63 1020:23
20 Juraj Slafkovský 000 -3 90.61 2119:42
15 Alex Newhook 000 +1 30.09 2015:15
71 Jake Evans 000 0 30.08 3014:19
76 Zachary Bolduc 101 -1 50.73 2013:34
7 Brendan Gallagher 011 -1 10.06 2113:32
93 Ivan Demidov 000 -1 20.16 1013:21
91 Oliver Kapanen 101 +1 30.06 3013:19
17 Josh Anderson 000 0 30.12 4012:59
92 Patrik Laine 000 -2 70.05 0012:51
77 Kirby Dach 011 -1 20.21 0311:47
Defense
53 Noah Dobson 000 -1 20.02 0122:56
8 Mike Matheson 000 0 30.04 1022:32
48 Lane Hutson 000 -2 40.20 1221:03
21 Kaiden Guhle 000 -1 00.00 2220:40
45 Alexandre Carrier 000 -1 20.00 1017:24
72 Arber Xhekaj 000 0 40.04 1211:08
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Samuel Montembeault 25322 .880 1.89 -1.11

Toronto Maple Leafs

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
34 Auston Matthews 101 +1 40.77 0320:31
89 Matthew Knies 011 0 20.25 8019:30
88 William Nylander 123 +2 40.95 0018:40
91 John Tavares 022 +2 40.20 1017:33
74 Bobby McMann 101 +1 40.21 4015:54
63 Matias Maccelli 011 +1 00.00 0014:37
10 Nicolas Roy 000 +1 00.00 1113:43
11 Max Domi 000 -1 40.24 0012:52
81 Dakota Joshua 000 -1 10.00 3012:18
18 Steven Lorentz 022 +2 00.00 6212:09
19 Calle Jarnkrok 101 +1 20.11 0011:10
14 Nick Robertson 000 -1 40.09 2010:40
Defense
22 Jake McCabe 000 +2 10.08 2324:05
8 Chris Tanev 000 0 30.02 1323:03
44 Morgan Rielly 112 +2 90.48 1220:47
25 Brandon Carlo 000 +3 20.02 0217:27
44 Simon Benoit 000 +1 30.13 5115:58
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 000 -1 20.02 1015:21
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Anthony Stolarz 31229 .935 3.35 +1.35

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Montréal Canadiens

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
76 Zachary Bolduc R +1.54 +0.75 +0.48 +0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:34
13 Cole Caufield R +1.16 0.00 +0.41 +0.72 0.00 -0.01 +0.04 — 20:23
53 Noah Dobson D +1.04 0.00 +0.01 +1.00 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 22:56
11 Brendan Gallagher R +0.98 +0.70 +0.04 +0.20 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 13:32
20 Juraj Slafkovský L +0.86 0.00 +0.40 +0.41 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 19:42
8 Mike Matheson D +0.63 0.00 +0.03 +0.49 +0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 22:32
14 Nick Suzuki C +0.58 0.00 +0.16 +0.38 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 20:42
77 Kirby Dach C +0.55 +0.55 +0.13 -0.20 0.00 -0.08 +0.15 — 11:47
91 Oliver Kapanen C +0.45 +0.75 +0.04 -0.32 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:19
72 Arber Xhekaj D +0.25 0.00 +0.03 +0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 11:08
71 Jake Evans C +0.19 0.00 +0.05 +0.13 0.00 +0.02 -0.02 — 14:19
17 Josh Anderson R +0.14 0.00 +0.08 +0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:59
92 Patrik Laine L -0.08 0.00 +0.03 +0.05 -0.15 +0.01 -0.02 — 12:51
21 Kaiden Guhle D -0.11 0.00 0.00 -0.30 +0.15 0.00 +0.04 — 20:40
48 Lane Hutson D -0.15 0.00 +0.13 -0.34 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 21:03
45 Alexandre Carrier D -0.24 0.00 0.00 -0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:24
15 Alex Newhook C -0.33 0.00 +0.06 -0.34 0.00 -0.05 0.00 — 15:15
93 Ivan Demidov R -0.35 0.00 +0.10 -0.30 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 13:21
35 Samuel Montembeault G -1.11 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.11 58:33

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
44 Morgan Rielly D +3.05 +1.45 +0.31 +1.20 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 20:47
88 William Nylander R +3.01 +2.15 +0.62 +0.39 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 18:40
91 John Tavares C +1.69 +1.10 +0.13 +0.45 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 17:33
18 Steven Lorentz C +1.43 +1.25 0.00 +0.09 0.00 +0.01 +0.08 — 12:09
41 Anthony Stolarz G +1.35 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.35 59:42
25 Brandon Carlo D +1.11 0.00 +0.01 +0.99 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 17:27
74 Bobby McMann C +1.06 +0.75 +0.14 +0.19 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:54
19 Calle Jarnkrok C +0.85 +0.75 +0.07 +0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:10
34 Auston Matthews C +0.67 +0.75 +0.50 -0.72 0.00 +0.01 +0.13 — 20:31
2 Simon Benoit D +0.42 0.00 +0.08 +0.29 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 15:58
63 Matias Maccelli L +0.30 +0.55 0.00 -0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:37
23 Matthew Knies L +0.11 +0.70 +0.16 -0.56 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 19:30
55 Nicolas Roy C +0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.03 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 13:43
11 Max Domi C -0.03 0.00 +0.16 -0.41 +0.15 +0.07 0.00 — 12:52
81 Dakota Joshua C -0.11 0.00 0.00 -0.09 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:18
89 Nick Robertson L -0.16 0.00 +0.06 -0.20 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 10:40
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D -0.43 0.00 +0.01 -0.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:21
22 Jake McCabe D -0.84 0.00 +0.05 -1.02 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 24:05
8 Chris Tanev D -1.45 0.00 +0.01 -1.76 +0.15 0.00 +0.15 — 23:03

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.