Toronto Maple Leafs
Atlantic Division, Eastern Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 27 | 21 | 9 | 63 | 188 | 194 | -6 | 55.3% |
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Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Feb 20, 2026
Analysis
Summary
The Toronto Maple Leafs are on the outside looking in, with just a 9.1% chance of making the playoffs and no realistic path to a division title. At their current pace, they are tracking well below the projected cutoff and would need a significant surge combined with stumbles from multiple rivals to stay alive.
Record and Recent Performance
Toronto sits at 27-21-9 for 63 points through 57 games, translating to a middling 55.3% points percentage that places them 12th in the conference. Their -6 goal differential reflects a team hovering around break-even, while a 49.8% overall strength rating suggests they have been slightly below league average, particularly on the road where their strength drops to 43.4%. Recent form at 45.0% indicates the Leafs have not been building momentum at the point in the season when it is most needed.
The Competition
The playoff race in the Eastern Conference is crowded and unforgiving, with Montreal, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, and Boston all sitting at least six points ahead and projecting to finish between 97 and 101 points. The Islanders currently hold the cutline at a projected 96.7 points, while even teams behind Toronto earlier in the season like Columbus now project well clear of the Leafs. With several competitors boasting strength ratings near or above 60%, Toronto not only has to climb past multiple teams but do so against opponents that analytics suggest are simply better.
Remaining Schedule
The Leafs have 25 games remaining, split unfavorably with 15 on the road and only 10 at home, a concern given their pronounced home-road performance gap. Their remaining opponents average a 54.3% strength rating, slightly above league average, making the schedule difficult enough that there is little margin for error. Toronto is expected to collect just 26.8 more points, which would leave them around 89.8 points, well short of the projected playoff threshold.
Outlook
Barring a dramatic turnaround, Toronto’s playoff hopes are fading fast, as the math and the underlying performance both point toward a shortfall. To have any real chance, the Leafs would need to outperform their season-long baseline while hoping multiple teams ahead of them collapse, a combination that explains why their odds sit firmly in single digits.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has already reached that threshold. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 9.1% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 87–93 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 95–97 points. Finishes above the cutline in 14.0% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Eastern Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 72 | 57 | 25 | 58.5% | 65.0% | 54.7% | 101.2 | 87.5% | |
| 5 | 70 | 57 | 25 | 59.0% | 65.0% | 54.5% | 99.3 | 81.8% | |
| 6 | 70 | 56 | 26 | 62.9% | 80.0% | 55.4% | 101.2 | 91.3% | |
| 7 | 69 | 57 | 25 | 59.9% | 75.0% | 56.0% | 97.7 | 70.1% | |
| 8 | 69 | 58 | 24 | 55.9% | 60.0% | 54.0% | 96.6 | 63.9% | |
| 9 | 65 | 59 | 23 | 54.2% | 55.0% | 53.5% | 91.2 | 20.4% | |
| 10 | 65 | 56 | 26 | 60.7% | 90.0% | 54.6% | 95.9 | 56.3% | |
| 11 | 63 | 57 | 25 | 55.5% | 65.0% | 53.8% | 91.8 | 20.4% | |
| 12 | 63 | 57 | 25 | 49.8% | 45.0% | 54.3% | 89.8 | 9.1% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49.8% | 53.5% | 43.4% | 48.4% | 45.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | William Nylander | R | 40 | 18 | 34 | 52 | +2 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 18:32 | |
| 34 | Auston Matthews | C | 51 | 26 | 22 | 48 | +4 | 0 | 29 | 68 | 20:49 | |
| 91 | John Tavares | C | 57 | 20 | 27 | 47 | -16 | 0 | 52 | 14 | 17:52 | |
| 23 | Matthew Knies | L | 54 | 14 | 32 | 46 | -11 | 0 | 111 | 23 | 18:52 | |
| 95 | Oliver Ekman-Larsson | D | 57 | 8 | 26 | 34 | -1 | 0 | 69 | 48 | 20:45 | |
| 74 | Bobby McMann | C | 56 | 19 | 13 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 126 | 23 | 15:20 | |
| 11 | Max Domi | C | 55 | 9 | 22 | 31 | -17 | 0 | 26 | 25 | 15:04 | |
| 44 | Morgan Rielly | D | 54 | 7 | 24 | 31 | -17 | 0 | 21 | 74 | 21:33 | |
| 89 | Nicholas Robertson | L | 54 | 12 | 14 | 26 | -2 | 0 | 58 | 29 | 12:29 | |
| 63 | Matias Maccelli | L | 46 | 10 | 14 | 24 | -12 | 0 | 12 | 13 | 14:39 | |
| 55 | Nicolas Roy | C | 54 | 5 | 15 | 20 | +2 | 0 | 58 | 27 | 14:40 | |
| 22 | Jake McCabe | D | 55 | 3 | 15 | 18 | +17 | 0 | 79 | 133 | 22:18 | |
| 53 | Easton Cowan | R | 43 | 7 | 10 | 17 | +2 | 0 | 45 | 23 | 13:31 | |
| 18 | Steven Lorentz | C | 50 | 4 | 10 | 14 | +2 | 0 | 108 | 32 | 11:44 | |
| 24 | Scott Laughton | C | 39 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -1 | 0 | 71 | 27 | 13:41 | |
| 28 | Troy Stecher ← EDM | D | 38 | 3 | 8 | 11 | +6 | 0 | 20 | 48 | 20:15 | |
| 81 | Dakota Joshua | C | 36 | 6 | 4 | 10 | -2 | 0 | 127 | 26 | 12:19 | |
| 19 | Calle Jarnkrok | C | 37 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 0 | 23 | 6 | 11:27 | |
| 25 | Brandon Carlo | D | 34 | 0 | 5 | 5 | +4 | 0 | 34 | 67 | 19:36 | |
| 27 | Sammy Blais → MTL | L | 8 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 28 | 5 | 8:17 | |
| 2 | Simon Benoit | D | 49 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 0 | 128 | 79 | 17:19 | |
| 8 | Chris Tanev | D | 11 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +8 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 17:58 | |
| 51 | Philippe Myers | D | 27 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 0 | 40 | 32 | 13:52 | |
| 36 | Dakota Mermis | D | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 13:01 | |
| 26 | Jacob Quillan | C | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 7:37 | |
| 83 | Marshall Rifai | D | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9:40 | |
| 33 | Matt Benning | D | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12:26 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 03 | @ EDM | 2 - 5 | W |
| Feb 02 | @ CGY | 2 - 4 | W |
| Jan 31 | @ VAN | 2 - 3 | W (OT/SO) |
| Jan 29 | @ SEA | 5 - 2 | L |
| Jan 27 | vs BUF | 4 - 7 | L |
| Jan 25 | vs COL | 1 - 4 | L |
| Jan 23 | vs VGK | 3 - 6 | L |
| Jan 21 | vs DET | 1 - 2 | L (OT/SO) |
| Jan 19 | vs MIN | 3 - 6 | L |
| Jan 17 | @ WPG | 3 - 4 | W (OT/SO) |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 19:30 | @ Tampa Bay Lightning | Away | 71.7% | 0.93 | TBL (61%) |
| Feb 26, 19:00 | @ Florida Panthers | Away | 46.7% | 1.08 | FLA (52%) |
| Feb 28, 19:00 | vs Ottawa Senators | Home | 55.5% | 1.13 | TOR (50%) |
| Mar 02, 19:30 | vs Philadelphia Flyers | Home | 48.5% | 1.19 | TOR (54%) |
| Mar 04, 19:00 | @ New Jersey Devils | Away | 43.8% | 1.11 | NJD (51%) |
| Mar 05, 19:00 | @ New York Rangers | Away | 37.8% | 1.34 | TOR (62%) |
| Mar 07, 19:00 | vs Tampa Bay Lightning | Home | 71.7% | 0.99 | TBL (58%) |
| Mar 10, 19:00 | @ Montréal Canadiens | Away | 58.5% | 1.04 | MTL (55%) |
| Mar 12, 19:00 | vs Anaheim Ducks | Home | 56.6% | 1.17 | TOR (52%) |
| Mar 14, 19:00 | @ Buffalo Sabres | Away | 59.0% | 0.98 | BUF (59%) |
| Total Expected (Next 10 games): | 10.9 pts | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.