Montréal Canadiens
Atlantic Division, Eastern Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 32 | 17 | 8 | 72 | 199 | 187 | +12 | 63.2% |
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Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Feb 20, 2026
Analysis
Summary
The Montréal Canadiens are in a strong position, sitting fourth in the conference with an 87.4% chance of making the playoffs and a projected finish above 100 points. While they are not favorites to win the division or conference, their odds are solidly in “likely playoff team” territory rather than bubble danger.
Record and Recent Performance
Montréal’s 32-17-8 record translates to 72 points in 57 games and a healthy 63.2% points percentage, which is comfortably above the typical playoff threshold. Their +12 goal differential, with 199 goals for and 187 against, suggests a team that wins more often than not but isn’t blowing teams out nightly. A team strength rating of 58.5% combined with a strong recent form of 65.0% indicates they are playing slightly better than their season-long baseline, with particularly impressive results away from home where their strength jumps to 62.3%.
The Competition
The Canadiens are right in the thick of a crowded race, with Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Boston, and the Islanders all within three points of each other. Pittsburgh looms as the most dangerous chaser given its 62.9% strength rating and identical projected finish of 101.2 points, while Buffalo and Boston are close enough that a short slump could flip positions quickly. The cutline is currently projected at 96.7 points, meaning teams like the Islanders and Blue Jackets remain legitimate threats, but Washington, Ottawa, and Toronto would need near-perfect finishes to seriously challenge Montréal.
Remaining Schedule
Montréal has 25 games left, split almost evenly with 13 at home and 12 on the road, and their remaining opponents average a 54.7% strength rating, only slightly above league average. With an expected 29.2 points still to be earned, the schedule is unlikely to either hand them a free ride or derail them outright. If they play to expectation, they should land around 101 points, giving them a cushion of roughly four to five points above the projected playoff cutoff.
Outlook
Barring a significant collapse, the Canadiens are on track to secure a playoff berth and possibly challenge for a higher seed if things break right. The margin for error is not massive given the quality of teams around them, but their current form and balanced schedule put them in control of their own postseason fate.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has already reached that threshold. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 87.5% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 98–104 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 95–97 points. Finishes above the cutline in 91.3% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Eastern Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 72 | 57 | 25 | 58.5% | 65.0% | 54.7% | 101.2 | 87.5% | |
| 5 | 70 | 57 | 25 | 59.0% | 65.0% | 54.5% | 99.3 | 81.8% | |
| 6 | 70 | 56 | 26 | 62.9% | 80.0% | 55.4% | 101.2 | 91.3% | |
| 7 | 69 | 57 | 25 | 59.9% | 75.0% | 56.0% | 97.7 | 70.1% | |
| 8 | 69 | 58 | 24 | 55.9% | 60.0% | 54.0% | 96.6 | 63.9% | |
| 9 | 65 | 59 | 23 | 54.2% | 55.0% | 53.5% | 91.2 | 20.4% | |
| 10 | 65 | 56 | 26 | 60.7% | 90.0% | 54.6% | 95.9 | 56.3% | |
| 11 | 63 | 57 | 25 | 55.5% | 65.0% | 53.8% | 91.8 | 20.4% | |
| 12 | 63 | 57 | 25 | 49.8% | 45.0% | 54.3% | 89.8 | 9.1% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58.5% | 52.7% | 62.3% | 53.1% | 65.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nick Suzuki | C | 57 | 18 | 47 | 65 | +25 | 0 | 45 | 48 | 20:42 | |
| 48 | Lane Hutson | D | 57 | 10 | 48 | 58 | +22 | 0 | 23 | 90 | 23:41 | |
| 13 | Cole Caufield | R | 57 | 32 | 25 | 57 | +18 | 0 | 43 | 14 | 18:12 | |
| 93 | Ivan Demidov | R | 57 | 12 | 34 | 46 | +8 | 0 | 23 | 21 | 15:24 | |
| 20 | Juraj Slafkovský | L | 57 | 21 | 24 | 45 | +8 | 0 | 83 | 53 | 18:03 | |
| 53 | Noah Dobson | D | 57 | 10 | 28 | 38 | +12 | 0 | 39 | 139 | 22:43 | |
| 91 | Oliver Kapanen | C | 57 | 18 | 13 | 31 | +5 | 0 | 21 | 56 | 15:00 | |
| 8 | Mike Matheson | D | 54 | 5 | 23 | 28 | +15 | 0 | 34 | 113 | 24:50 | |
| 76 | Zachary Bolduc | R | 57 | 10 | 13 | 23 | -11 | 0 | 115 | 30 | 13:33 | |
| 17 | Josh Anderson | R | 51 | 12 | 8 | 20 | -6 | 0 | 95 | 30 | 14:24 | |
| 11 | Brendan Gallagher | R | 57 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 68 | 12 | 12:51 | |
| 45 | Alexandre Carrier | D | 57 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -3 | 0 | 26 | 124 | 19:32 | |
| 85 | Alexandre Texier | L | 30 | 7 | 10 | 17 | +9 | 0 | 31 | 12 | 14:45 | |
| 71 | Jake Evans | C | 43 | 7 | 6 | 13 | -11 | 0 | 48 | 33 | 15:14 | |
| 77 | Kirby Dach | C | 23 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 22 | 14:05 | |
| 15 | Alex Newhook | C | 17 | 6 | 6 | 12 | +7 | 0 | 26 | 5 | 14:38 | |
| 24 | Phillip Danault | C | 21 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 0 | 18 | 18 | 15:58 | |
| 47 | Jayden Struble | D | 39 | 0 | 8 | 8 | -2 | 0 | 73 | 17 | 14:03 | |
| 27 | Sammy Blais | L | 13 | 2 | 3 | 5 | +4 | 0 | 50 | 7 | 8:30 | |
| 90 | Joe Veleno | C | 49 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 0 | 119 | 24 | 12:13 | |
| 21 | Kaiden Guhle | D | 17 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 35 | 22 | 18:49 | |
| 72 | Arber Xhekaj | D | 50 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 0 | 135 | 33 | 11:21 | |
| 62 | Owen Beck | C | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 0 | 24 | 8 | 9:11 | |
| 92 | Patrik Laine | R | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 12:36 | |
| 42 | Adam Engstrom | D | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 12:32 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 04 | @ WPG | 1 - 5 | W |
| Feb 02 | @ MIN | 4 - 3 | L (OT/SO) |
| Jan 31 | @ BUF | 2 - 4 | W |
| Jan 29 | vs COL | 7 - 3 | W |
| Jan 27 | vs VGK | 3 - 2 | W (OT/SO) |
| Jan 24 | @ BOS | 4 - 3 | L |
| Jan 22 | vs BUF | 2 - 4 | L |
| Jan 20 | vs MIN | 4 - 3 | W |
| Jan 17 | @ OTT | 5 - 6 | W (OT/SO) |
| Jan 15 | @ BUF | 5 - 3 | L |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 19:00 | vs New York Islanders | Home | 55.9% | 1.10 | NYI (52%) |
| Feb 28, 19:00 | vs Washington Capitals | Home | 54.2% | 1.17 | MTL (53%) |
| Mar 03, 22:00 | @ San Jose Sharks | Away | 46.8% | 1.21 | MTL (55%) |
| Mar 06, 21:00 | @ Anaheim Ducks | Away | 56.6% | 1.09 | ANA (52%) |
| Mar 07, 19:00 | @ Los Angeles Kings | Away | 49.6% | 1.29 | MTL (59%) |
| Mar 10, 19:00 | vs Toronto Maple Leafs | Home | 49.8% | 1.21 | MTL (55%) |
| Mar 11, 19:30 | @ Ottawa Senators | Away | 55.5% | 1.16 | MTL (52%) |
| Mar 14, 19:00 | vs San Jose Sharks | Home | 46.8% | 1.23 | MTL (56%) |
| Mar 15, 19:00 | vs Anaheim Ducks | Home | 56.6% | 1.16 | MTL (52%) |
| Mar 17, 19:00 | vs Boston Bruins | Home | 59.9% | 1.15 | MTL (52%) |
| Total Expected (Next 10 games): | 11.8 pts | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.