hockeystats.io

Calgary FlamesCGY 4–3 Final/SO Edmonton OilersEDM

Wednesday, October 8, 2025

Final/SO 1st2nd3rdOTSO T SOG
Calgary FlamesCGY 02102 4 22
Edmonton OilersEDM 21001 3 35

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
9:53 EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (1)PP Leon Draisaitl (1), Connor McDavid (1) · wrist xG 0.17 0–1 ▶
16:11 EDM Andrew Mangiapane (1) Connor McDavid (2), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (1) · snap xG 0.10 0–2 ▶
2nd Period
8:32 EDM Leon Draisaitl (1)PP David Tomasek (1), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2) · wrist xG 0.14 0–3 ▶
12:40 CGY Matvei Gridin (1) Nazem Kadri (1), Matt Coronato (1) · wrist xG 0.03 1–3 ▶
14:47 CGY Connor Zary (1)PP Adam Klapka (1) · bat xG 0.82 2–3 ▶
3rd Period
0:40 CGY Blake Coleman (1) Unassisted · poke xG 0.19 3–3 ▶
Overtime
No scoring
Shootout
EDM Connor McDavid vs Dustin Wolf Saved
CGY Justin Kirkland vs Stuart Skinner Saved
EDM Leon Draisaitl vs Dustin Wolf Goal
CGY Morgan Frost vs Stuart Skinner Goal
EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins vs Dustin Wolf Saved
CGY Rasmus Andersson vs Stuart Skinner Saved
EDM David Tomasek vs Dustin Wolf Saved
CGY Matt Coronato vs Stuart Skinner Missed
EDM Isaac Howard vs Dustin Wolf Missed
CGY Matvei Gridin vs Stuart Skinner Saved
EDM Matt Savoie vs Dustin Wolf Saved
CGY Yegor Sharangovich vs Stuart Skinner Missed
EDM Evan Bouchard vs Dustin Wolf Saved
CGY Connor Zary vs Stuart Skinner Saved
EDM Kasperi Kapanen vs Dustin Wolf Missed
CGY Nazem Kadri vs Stuart Skinner Goal

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

CGY 35%Deserve to win65% EDM
CGYEDM
2.63Expected goals3.48
3Goals (no shootout)3
0.75Expected goals, 5 on 51.75
57Shot attempts66
36Unblocked attempts47
22Shots on goal35

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
18:40 CGY xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced EDM 1.12–0.02
In xG over 10 minutes, 9:20 to 19:20 of the 2nd; goals 2–0

Shot map

CGY shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ EDM shoots
Vasily Podkolzin: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:02) Matvei Gridin: wrist, 170 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 1:51) Matvei Gridin: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 2:24) Rasmus Andersson: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:53) Ty Emberson: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:00) Isaac Howard: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:23) Joel Farabee: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 7:42) Leon Draisaitl: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 8:56) Kasperi Kapanen: backhand, 26 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 10:31) Morgan Frost: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 11:23) Morgan Frost: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 11:25) Ty Emberson: wrist, 167 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 13:39) Connor McDavid: poke, 31 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 14:46) David Tomasek: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:15) Isaac Howard: backhand, 24 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 15:17) Evan Bouchard: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 16:39) Mikael Backlund: wrist, 78 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 18:53) Isaac Howard: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 19:03) Adam Klapka: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:37) Rasmus Andersson: slap, 97 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 19:57) Evan Bouchard: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 1:34) Mattias Ekholm: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 1:39) Matvei Gridin: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:51) Jake Bean: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:05) Matt Coronato: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:23) Connor Zary: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:56) Vasily Podkolzin: tip-in, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 4:05) Nazem Kadri: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 4:27) Noah Philp: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.37 (P2 4:55) Connor McDavid: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 6:54) Leon Draisaitl: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 7:13) Mikael Backlund: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:50) David Tomasek: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 8:23) Alec Regula: wrist, 75 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 8:38) Andrew Mangiapane: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 9:20) Rasmus Andersson: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:22) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 11:34) Matt Coronato: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 13:42) Alec Regula: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:34) Darnell Nurse: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:44) Joel Farabee: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 18:11) Leon Draisaitl: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:26) Leon Draisaitl: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 19:30) Matt Coronato: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:54) Connor Zary: wrist, 87 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 0:36) Noah Philp: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:58) Alec Regula: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 1:02) MacKenzie Weegar: snap, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:43) Rasmus Andersson: snap, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:27) Rasmus Andersson: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:39) Kevin Bahl: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:45) Blake Coleman: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 4:46) Ty Emberson: wrist, 161 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 6:09) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 9:09) Connor McDavid: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 9:35) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 9:55) Darnell Nurse: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 10:45) Adam Henrique: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 11:56) MacKenzie Weegar: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:01) Darnell Nurse: snap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:34) Brayden Pachal: wrist, 70 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 16:12) Leon Draisaitl: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 16:58) Evan Bouchard: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 18:07) Connor McDavid: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 18:09) Matt Coronato: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 18:27) Matt Coronato: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 18:59) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 19:49) Nazem Kadri: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.15 (OT 0:13) Morgan Frost: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.18 (OT 0:21) Evan Bouchard: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.09 (OT 0:48) Connor McDavid: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.13 (OT 1:03) Leon Draisaitl: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.09 (OT 2:48) Matvei Gridin: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.12 (OT 3:11) Leon Draisaitl: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.07 (OT 4:00) David Tomasek: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.21 (OT 4:27) Evan Bouchard: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.10 (OT 4:47) Evan Bouchard: slap, 27 ft, xG 0.16 (OT 4:55) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: GOAL, wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 9:53) Andrew Mangiapane: GOAL, snap, 28 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 16:11) Leon Draisaitl: GOAL, wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 8:32) Matvei Gridin: GOAL, wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:40) Connor Zary: GOAL, bat, 8 ft, xG 0.82 (P2 14:47) Blake Coleman: GOAL, poke, 6 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 0:40)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Calgary Flames

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
91 Nazem Kadri 011 +1 70.28 1224:02
86 Joel Farabee 000 -1 20.13 3120:30
11 Mikael Backlund 000 0 60.01 2019:38
27 Matt Coronato 011 0 90.31 0018:46
20 Blake Coleman 101 +1 20.23 2118:21
16 Morgan Frost 000 0 40.43 0117:18
47 Connor Zary 101 0 30.84 0014:22
17 Yegor Sharangovich 000 0 00.00 1112:47
43 Adam Klapka 011 0 30.02 6012:31
94 Ryan Lomberg 000 0 00.00 7010:18
28 Justin Kirkland 000 0 00.00 2208:12
Defense
4 Rasmus Andersson 000 +1 50.05 1326:20
52 MacKenzie Weegar 000 +1 50.01 6126:01
7 Kevin Bahl 000 +2 20.02 2024:42
44 Joel Hanley 000 0 00.00 1116:46
24 Jake Bean 000 -1 20.02 0314:00
94 Brayden Pachal 000 -1 10.00 1012:12
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Dustin Wolf 35332 .914 3.48 +0.48

Edmonton Oilers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
97 Connor McDavid 022 +1 60.61 0026:21
29 Leon Draisaitl 112 0 100.78 1024:40
93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 123 0 40.43 0018:56
10 Trent Frederic 000 +1 00.00 2016:46
26 Andrew Mangiapane 101 0 20.18 0114:47
42 Kasperi Kapanen 000 -2 20.02 1113:26
19 Adam Henrique 000 0 10.04 2313:04
22 Matt Savoie 000 0 00.00 0112:32
92 Vasily Podkolzin 000 -1 20.03 7012:23
15 Noah Philp 000 -2 40.39 1110:58
53 Isaac Howard 000 0 40.09 0010:43
Defense
2 Evan Bouchard 000 0 100.50 1428:42
14 Mattias Ekholm 000 +1 30.03 1221:45
27 Brett Kulak 000 0 20.00 0020:44
25 Darnell Nurse 000 -1 40.04 5220:12
49 Ty Emberson 000 0 50.02 1215:28
75 Alec Regula 000 -2 40.01 0115:03
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Stuart Skinner 22319 .864 2.63 -0.37

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Calgary Flames

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
47 Connor Zary C +1.28 +0.75 +0.55 -0.16 +0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 14:22
92 Matvei Gridin R +1.18 +0.75 +0.17 +0.28 0.00 -0.02 +0.01 — 15:25
20 Blake Coleman L +1.04 +0.75 +0.15 -0.05 +0.15 -0.01 +0.05 — 18:21
32 Dustin Wolf G +0.48 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.48 64:25
27 Matt Coronato R +0.40 +0.55 +0.20 -0.36 0.00 -0.01 +0.02 — 18:46
91 Nazem Kadri C +0.36 +0.70 +0.18 -0.59 0.00 -0.03 +0.10 — 24:02
23 Justin Kirkland C +0.17 0.00 0.00 +0.06 0.00 +0.01 +0.10 — 8:12
16 Morgan Frost C +0.07 0.00 +0.28 -0.14 -0.15 +0.03 +0.05 — 17:18
44 Joel Hanley D -0.05 0.00 0.00 -0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 16:46
17 Yegor Sharangovich C -0.06 0.00 0.00 -0.11 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 12:47
11 Mikael Backlund C -0.07 0.00 +0.01 -0.28 +0.15 +0.07 -0.02 — 19:38
43 Adam Klapka R -0.08 +0.70 +0.01 -0.44 -0.30 -0.01 -0.04 — 12:31
7 Kevin Bahl D -0.08 0.00 +0.01 -0.08 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 24:42
52 MacKenzie Weegar D -0.21 0.00 +0.01 -0.06 -0.15 0.00 -0.01 — 26:01
70 Ryan Lomberg L -0.28 0.00 0.00 -0.23 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 10:18
94 Brayden Pachal D -0.29 0.00 0.00 -0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:12
4 Rasmus Andersson D -0.34 0.00 +0.04 -0.58 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 26:20
24 Jake Bean D -0.66 0.00 +0.01 -0.83 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 14:00
86 Joel Farabee L -0.69 0.00 +0.09 -0.84 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 20:30

Edmonton Oilers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
97 Connor McDavid C +3.13 +1.25 +0.39 +1.20 +0.30 0.00 -0.02 — 26:21
29 Leon Draisaitl C +3.04 +1.45 +0.51 +0.97 +0.15 -0.02 -0.02 — 24:40
93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C +1.72 +1.85 +0.28 -0.22 -0.15 -0.04 0.00 — 18:56
14 Mattias Ekholm D +1.70 0.00 +0.02 +1.62 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 21:45
2 Evan Bouchard D +1.60 0.00 +0.32 +1.13 0.00 0.00 +0.14 — 28:42
10 Trent Frederic C +1.00 0.00 0.00 +1.15 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 16:46
88 Andrew Mangiapane L +0.88 +0.75 +0.12 -0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:47
86 David Tomasek R +0.73 +0.70 +0.21 +0.12 -0.30 0.00 0.00 — 13:20
19 Adam Henrique C +0.27 0.00 +0.02 +0.11 0.00 +0.02 +0.11 — 13:04
48 Noah Philp C +0.20 0.00 +0.25 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 +0.07 — 10:58
53 Isaac Howard L +0.15 0.00 +0.06 +0.11 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 10:43
49 Ty Emberson D +0.13 0.00 +0.01 +0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 15:28
92 Vasily Podkolzin R +0.01 0.00 +0.02 +0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:23
42 Kasperi Kapanen R -0.12 0.00 +0.01 -0.16 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 13:26
25 Darnell Nurse D -0.17 0.00 +0.02 -0.29 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 20:12
27 Brett Kulak D -0.18 0.00 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.00 -0.08 — 20:44
22 Matt Savoie C -0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.26 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 12:32
74 Stuart Skinner G -0.37 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.37 65:00
75 Alec Regula D -0.42 0.00 +0.01 -0.48 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 15:03

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.