Edmonton Oilers
Pacific Division, Western Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 28 | 22 | 8 | 64 | 198 | 194 | +4 | 55.2% |
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Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Feb 20, 2026
Analysis
Summary
The Edmonton Oilers sit right on the playoff bubble with a 58.5% chance of qualifying, essentially coin-flip territory as the season enters its final third. Their projected 90.6 points matches the expected cutoff, meaning even small swings in form could decide their fate.
Record and Recent Performance
Edmonton’s 28-22-8 record through 58 games translates to 64 points and a 55.2% points percentage, which is barely playoff caliber in a tight Western Conference. Their +4 goal differential, driven by 198 goals for against 194 allowed, suggests a team that is competitive but not dominant. A team strength rating of 52.1% places them just above average overall, with a notable split between solid home play at 55.3% and shakier road results at 47.2%, while their recent form at exactly 50.0% shows no clear upward or downward momentum.
The Competition
The Oilers are currently sixth in the conference race but face intense pressure from both directions. Vegas sits four points ahead with a much stronger playoff probability at 91.1% and a projection of 96.3 points, making them a tough target to catch, while Utah and Anaheim both project into the mid-90s and look more secure than Edmonton despite similar current point totals. Seattle, Anaheim, and Utah are the biggest threats, as all project above 92 points, while Los Angeles at 89.5 projected points remains close enough to challenge if Edmonton slips, making the margin for error extremely thin.
Remaining Schedule
Edmonton has 24 games left with a perfectly even 12 home and 12 away split, and the overall schedule difficulty is rated as average with opponent strength at 53.3%, almost identical to the league norm. Based on this slate, they are expected to collect about 26.6 more points, which would land them exactly at the projected cutoff of 90.6 points. This means their playoff hopes likely hinge on outperforming expectations slightly, particularly by maximizing home games and avoiding costly regulation losses against direct rivals.
Outlook
The Oilers control much of their own destiny, but only barely, as their current trajectory leaves no cushion. To feel comfortable, they likely need a modest surge above their season-long 55.2% pace, especially given the strength and depth of the teams around them. If they can turn average form into a strong finish, the path is there, but any prolonged slump could quickly push them out of the playoff picture.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has already reached that threshold. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 58.5% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 88–94 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 89–92 points. Finishes above the cutline in 60.7% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Western Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 68 | 57 | 25 | 52.5% | 40.0% | 53.2% | 96.3 | 91.1% | |
| 5 | 64 | 57 | 25 | 59.6% | 70.0% | 52.3% | 94.4 | 86.1% | |
| 6 | 64 | 58 | 24 | 52.1% | 50.0% | 53.3% | 90.6 | 58.5% | |
| 7 | 63 | 56 | 26 | 53.4% | 60.0% | 52.7% | 92.9 | 76.5% | |
| 8 | 63 | 56 | 26 | 56.6% | 80.0% | 49.1% | 94.9 | 86.2% | |
| 9 | 60 | 56 | 26 | 49.6% | 55.0% | 49.4% | 89.5 | 43.6% | |
| 10 | 59 | 57 | 25 | 45.6% | 45.0% | 53.0% | 85.7 | 19.3% | |
| 11 | 58 | 55 | 27 | 46.8% | 45.0% | 49.3% | 88.1 | 33.9% | |
| 12 | 53 | 57 | 25 | 42.4% | 40.0% | 52.9% | 78.7 | 1.0% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52.1% | 55.3% | 47.2% | 51.0% | 50.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | Connor McDavid | C | 58 | 34 | 62 | 96 | +11 | 0 | 25 | 23 | 23:06 | |
| 29 | Leon Draisaitl | C | 55 | 29 | 51 | 80 | +12 | 0 | 26 | 14 | 22:05 | |
| 2 | Evan Bouchard | D | 58 | 15 | 48 | 63 | +11 | 0 | 23 | 78 | 24:44 | |
| 93 | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | C | 49 | 13 | 32 | 45 | -6 | 0 | 16 | 19 | 19:12 | |
| 18 | Zach Hyman | L | 39 | 22 | 14 | 36 | +10 | 0 | 36 | 13 | 20:10 | |
| 14 | Mattias Ekholm | D | 58 | 6 | 21 | 27 | +18 | 0 | 52 | 91 | 20:55 | |
| 92 | Vasily Podkolzin | R | 58 | 12 | 13 | 25 | +15 | 0 | 165 | 29 | 15:20 | |
| 28 | Jack Roslovic | C | 45 | 15 | 9 | 24 | -8 | 0 | 20 | 15 | 16:02 | |
| 22 | Matt Savoie | C | 58 | 9 | 9 | 18 | -2 | 0 | 10 | 28 | 13:49 | |
| 25 | Darnell Nurse | D | 58 | 7 | 11 | 18 | -11 | 0 | 84 | 128 | 20:49 | |
| 96 | Jake Walman | D | 29 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -7 | 0 | 8 | 48 | 19:49 | |
| 88 | Andrew Mangiapane | L | 49 | 6 | 6 | 12 | -21 | 0 | 48 | 18 | 12:42 | |
| 42 | Kasperi Kapanen | R | 19 | 5 | 7 | 12 | +8 | 0 | 38 | 8 | 14:08 | |
| 49 | Ty Emberson | D | 53 | 1 | 10 | 11 | +4 | 0 | 80 | 90 | 15:57 | |
| 19 | Adam Henrique | C | 43 | 2 | 8 | 10 | -9 | 0 | 24 | 57 | 13:49 | |
| 13 | Mattias Janmark | C | 42 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -8 | 0 | 10 | 13 | 12:04 | |
| 20 | Curtis Lazar | C | 34 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 | 68 | 16 | 8:53 | |
| 53 | Isaac Howard | L | 28 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 10:19 | |
| 15 | Noah Philp → CAR | C | 15 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 0 | 24 | 2 | 10:02 | |
| 10 | Trent Frederic | C | 55 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 0 | 134 | 14 | 10:47 | |
| 75 | Alec Regula | D | 29 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -16 | 0 | 15 | 44 | 14:28 | |
| 77 | Brett Kulak → PIT | D | 31 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 0 | 4 | 38 | 17:42 | |
| 81 | Josh Samanski | C | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9:09 | |
| 24 | Spencer Stastney ← NSH | D | 27 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -7 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 15:56 | |
| 61 | Riley Stillman | D | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 12:02 | |
| 28 | Troy Stecher → TOR | D | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 13:37 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 04 | @ CGY | 4 - 3 | L |
| Feb 03 | vs TOR | 2 - 5 | L |
| Jan 31 | vs MIN | 3 - 7 | L |
| Jan 29 | vs SJS | 4 - 3 | W (OT/SO) |
| Jan 26 | vs ANA | 7 - 4 | W |
| Jan 24 | vs WSH | 6 - 5 | W (OT/SO) |
| Jan 22 | vs PIT | 2 - 6 | L |
| Jan 20 | vs NJD | 1 - 2 | L |
| Jan 18 | vs STL | 5 - 0 | W |
| Jan 17 | @ VAN | 0 - 6 | W |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 22:30 | @ Anaheim Ducks | Away | 56.6% | 0.97 | ANA (59%) |
| Feb 26, 22:30 | @ Los Angeles Kings | Away | 49.6% | 1.17 | EDM (52%) |
| Feb 28, 16:00 | @ San Jose Sharks | Away | 46.8% | 1.09 | SJS (52%) |
| Mar 03, 21:00 | vs Ottawa Senators | Home | 55.5% | 1.14 | EDM (51%) |
| Mar 06, 21:00 | vs Carolina Hurricanes | Home | 68.2% | 1.06 | CAR (54%) |
| Mar 08, 21:30 | @ Vegas Golden Knights | Away | 52.5% | 1.08 | VGK (53%) |
| Mar 10, 22:00 | @ Colorado Avalanche | Away | 66.8% | 0.94 | COL (61%) |
| Mar 12, 20:00 | @ Dallas Stars | Away | 63.9% | 0.99 | DAL (58%) |
| Mar 13, 20:00 | @ St. Louis Blues | Away | 35.1% | 1.15 | EDM (51%) |
| Mar 15, 20:00 | vs Nashville Predators | Home | 45.6% | 1.24 | EDM (57%) |
| Total Expected (Next 10 games): | 10.8 pts | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.