Calgary Flames
Pacific Division, Western Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 23 | 27 | 6 | 52 | 142 | 169 | -27 | 46.4% |
|
Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Feb 20, 2026
Analysis
Summary
The Calgary Flames are on the extreme fringe of the Western Conference playoff race, sitting with a 1.0% playoff probability and no realistic path to a division or conference title. At 52 points through 56 games, they would need a near-perfect finish combined with collapses from multiple teams ahead to even sniff the cutline.
Record and Recent Performance
Calgary’s 23-27-6 record translates to a 46.4% points percentage, well below playoff caliber, and their minus-27 goal differential underscores the gap between them and true contenders. The team strength rating of 44.6% reflects a split identity, as they have been respectable at home at 54.3% but extremely poor on the road at 32.0%. Recent form at 50.0% suggests they are playing essentially .500 hockey, which is far from enough given the ground they need to make up.
The Competition
The Flames are currently 14th in the conference, tied on points with Winnipeg at 52 but behind nearly everyone else in both strength and projection. The cutline is held by Anaheim at 63 points with a projected finish of 94.9 points, meaning Calgary trails by 11 points with no games in hand and weaker underlying numbers. Even teams like Los Angeles at 60 points and San Jose at 58 points project well ahead of Calgary, making it unrealistic for the Flames to leapfrog the five or six teams required to reach the postseason.
Remaining Schedule
Calgary has 26 games left, split fairly evenly with 12 at home and 14 on the road, and a schedule difficulty that rates as average with opponent strength at 54.5%. Based on team strength and opponent quality, the Flames are expected to earn about 26.3 more points, which would leave them at roughly 78.3 points. With the projected playoff cutoff sitting at 90.6 points, they would need roughly 12 more points than expected just to reach the bubble, an enormous overperformance.
Outlook
Barring a dramatic and sustained surge that the numbers do not support, the Flames’ playoff chances are effectively gone. The focus down the stretch is likely to shift toward player evaluation, trade deadline positioning, and setting up for a stronger future rather than chasing an increasingly distant postseason berth.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has already reached that threshold. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 1.1% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 75–81 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 89–92 points. Finishes above the cutline in 1.1% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Western Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 68 | 57 | 25 | 52.5% | 40.0% | 53.2% | 96.3 | 91.1% | |
| 5 | 64 | 57 | 25 | 59.6% | 70.0% | 52.3% | 94.4 | 86.1% | |
| 6 | 64 | 58 | 24 | 52.1% | 50.0% | 53.3% | 90.6 | 58.5% | |
| 7 | 63 | 56 | 26 | 53.4% | 60.0% | 52.7% | 92.9 | 76.5% | |
| 8 | 63 | 56 | 26 | 56.6% | 80.0% | 49.1% | 94.9 | 86.2% | |
| 9 | 60 | 56 | 26 | 49.6% | 55.0% | 49.4% | 89.5 | 43.6% | |
| 10 | 59 | 57 | 25 | 45.6% | 45.0% | 53.0% | 85.7 | 19.3% | |
| 11 | 58 | 55 | 27 | 46.8% | 45.0% | 49.3% | 88.1 | 33.9% | |
| 12 | 53 | 57 | 25 | 42.4% | 40.0% | 52.9% | 78.7 | 1.0% | |
| 13 | 52 | 56 | 26 | 45.7% | 45.0% | 51.3% | 80.5 | 2.8% | |
| 14 | 52 | 56 | 26 | 44.6% | 50.0% | 54.5% | 78.3 | 1.1% | |
| 15 | 49 | 57 | 25 | 35.1% | 25.0% | 53.3% | 72.5 | 0.0% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44.6% | 54.3% | 32.0% | 41.4% | 50.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | Nazem Kadri | C | 56 | 10 | 29 | 39 | -24 | 0 | 34 | 19 | 19:27 | |
| 11 | Mikael Backlund | C | 56 | 12 | 21 | 33 | +13 | 0 | 20 | 18 | 17:42 | |
| 4 | Rasmus Andersson | D | 48 | 10 | 20 | 30 | +3 | 0 | 29 | 90 | 24:14 | |
| 27 | Matt Coronato | R | 55 | 14 | 15 | 29 | -22 | 0 | 11 | 17 | 16:38 | |
| 16 | Morgan Frost | C | 56 | 12 | 15 | 27 | -15 | 0 | 37 | 25 | 15:18 | |
| 10 | Jonathan Huberdeau | L | 50 | 10 | 15 | 25 | -9 | 0 | 30 | 30 | 18:08 | |
| 86 | Joel Farabee | L | 56 | 12 | 11 | 23 | -11 | 0 | 38 | 38 | 16:49 | |
| 20 | Blake Coleman | L | 44 | 13 | 8 | 21 | +10 | 0 | 110 | 29 | 17:00 | |
| 47 | Connor Zary | C | 54 | 9 | 12 | 21 | -6 | 0 | 33 | 14 | 14:30 | |
| 17 | Yegor Sharangovich | C | 52 | 11 | 9 | 20 | -18 | 0 | 15 | 21 | 16:11 | |
| 52 | MacKenzie Weegar | D | 56 | 3 | 17 | 20 | -32 | 0 | 127 | 129 | 23:10 | |
| 7 | Kevin Bahl | D | 55 | 3 | 10 | 13 | +11 | 0 | 84 | 82 | 21:53 | |
| 43 | Adam Klapka | R | 55 | 5 | 7 | 12 | -3 | 0 | 202 | 33 | 10:36 | |
| 37 | Yan Kuznetsov | D | 42 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -7 | 0 | 56 | 72 | 20:14 | |
| 70 | Ryan Lomberg | L | 50 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 117 | 15 | 8:55 | |
| 44 | Joel Hanley | D | 53 | 0 | 7 | 7 | -5 | 0 | 34 | 67 | 14:26 | |
| 92 | Matvei Gridin | R | 9 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 13:48 | |
| 29 | Samuel Honzek | L | 18 | 2 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 35 | 6 | 12:20 | |
| 94 | Brayden Pachal | D | 26 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 65 | 22 | 13:06 | |
| 28 | Zach Whitecloud | D | 8 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 13 | 13 | 23:08 | |
| 24 | Jake Bean | D | 16 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 15:57 | |
| 23 | Justin Kirkland | C | 20 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 29 | 11 | 9:49 | |
| 48 | Hunter Brzustewicz | D | 18 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 13:59 | |
| 18 | John Beecher | C | 19 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 11 | 14 | 9:38 | |
| 19 | Zayne Parekh | D | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 14:59 | |
| 65 | William Stromgren | L | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:17 | |
| 76 | Martin Pospisil | C | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 10:44 | |
| 15 | Dryden Hunt | L | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5:35 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 04 | vs EDM | 4 - 3 | W |
| Feb 02 | vs TOR | 2 - 4 | L |
| Jan 31 | vs SJS | 3 - 2 | W |
| Jan 29 | @ MIN | 4 - 1 | L |
| Jan 25 | vs ANA | 3 - 4 | L (OT/SO) |
| Jan 23 | vs WSH | 1 - 3 | L |
| Jan 21 | vs PIT | 1 - 4 | L |
| Jan 19 | vs NJD | 1 - 2 | L (OT/SO) |
| Jan 17 | vs NYI | 4 - 2 | W |
| Jan 15 | @ CHI | 1 - 3 | W |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 22:00 | @ San Jose Sharks | Away | 46.8% | 0.93 | SJS (61%) |
| Feb 28, 19:00 | @ Los Angeles Kings | Away | 49.6% | 1.00 | LAK (57%) |
| Mar 01, 20:00 | @ Anaheim Ducks | Away | 56.6% | 0.81 | ANA (68%) |
| Mar 03, 21:00 | vs Dallas Stars | Home | 63.9% | 1.05 | DAL (54%) |
| Mar 05, 21:00 | vs Ottawa Senators | Home | 55.5% | 1.13 | CGY (50%) |
| Mar 07, 22:00 | vs Carolina Hurricanes | Home | 68.2% | 1.05 | CAR (54%) |
| Mar 09, 19:00 | @ Washington Capitals | Away | 54.2% | 0.86 | WSH (65%) |
| Mar 10, 19:00 | @ New York Rangers | Away | 37.8% | 1.21 | CGY (55%) |
| Mar 12, 19:00 | @ New Jersey Devils | Away | 43.8% | 0.98 | NJD (58%) |
| Mar 14, 19:00 | @ New York Islanders | Away | 55.9% | 0.88 | NYI (64%) |
| Total Expected (Next 10 games): | 9.9 pts | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.