Dallas StarsDAL 5–4 Final Winnipeg JetsWPG

Thursday, October 9, 2025

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Dallas StarsDAL	2	0	3	5	37
Winnipeg JetsWPG	1	0	3	4	25

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
3:15	DAL	Mikko Rantanen (1) Roope Hintz (1), Sam Steel (1) · snap xG 0.33	1–0 ▶
6:19	WPG	Kyle Connor (1) Mark Scheifele (1), Gabriel Vilardi (1) · wrist xG 0.07	1–1 ▶
15:24	DAL	Nils Lundkvist (1) Mikko Rantanen (1), Jason Robertson (1) · wrist xG 0.14	2–1 ▶
2nd Period
No scoring
3rd Period
1:01	DAL	Jason Robertson (1)PP Mikko Rantanen (2), Roope Hintz (2) · wrist xG 0.48	3–1 ▶
1:35	DAL	Tyler Seguin (1) Matt Duchene (1), Thomas Harley (1) · wrist xG 0.19	4–1 ▶
3:23	DAL	Wyatt Johnston (1) Nils Lundkvist (1), Thomas Harley (2) · wrist xG 0.13	5–1 ▶
9:53	WPG	Morgan Barron (1)SH Unassisted · backhand xG 0.21	5–2 ▶
11:09	WPG	Kyle Connor (2)SH Mark Scheifele (2), Dylan DeMelo (1) · wrist xG 0.06	5–3 ▶
16:57	WPG	Kyle Connor (3) Mark Scheifele (3), Dylan DeMelo (2) · wrist xG 0.13	5–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

DAL 76%Deserve to win24% WPG

DAL		WPG
4.74	Expected goals	2.53
5	Goals (no shootout)	4
2.50	Expected goals, 5 on 5	1.31
58	Shot attempts	56
49	Unblocked attempts	36
37	Shots on goal	25

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
6:58	WPG	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · WPG takes the lead, 60–40% DAL had led since 3:15 of the 1st, by as much as 70%
16:56	DAL	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · DAL takes the lead, 61–39% WPG had led since 6:58 of the 2nd, by as much as 61%
18:00	DAL	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced WPG 2.32–0.00 In xG over 10 minutes, 12:20 of the 2nd to 2:20 of the 3rd; goals 2–0
3rd Period
18:44	WPG	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Hellebuyck, down 5–4 With 1:16 left

Shot map

DAL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ WPG shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Dallas Stars

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
53	Wyatt Johnston	1	0	1	0	3	0.28	0	1	20:05
24	Roope Hintz	0	2	2	0	8	0.54	0	0	19:25
96	Mikko Rantanen	1	2	3	-1	7	0.68	0	0	18:48
21	Jason Robertson	1	1	2	0	9	1.07	1	1	18:09
91	Tyler Seguin	1	0	1	+1	5	0.70	1	0	15:27
95	Matt Duchene	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	0	15:25
18	Sam Steel	0	1	1	0	3	0.62	1	1	14:07
12	Radek Faksa	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	3	0	13:21
15	Colin Blackwell	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	3	1	11:53
22	Mavrik Bourque	0	0	0	+1	2	0.08	0	1	11:48
49	Justin Hryckowian	0	0	0	-1	1	0.06	3	1	08:47
11	Nathan Bastian	0	0	0	-1	1	0.09	2	1	07:46
Defense
4	Miro Heiskanen	0	0	0	-2	5	0.33	0	1	27:02
23	Esa Lindell	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	1	1	21:55
55	Thomas Harley	0	2	2	0	3	0.03	0	5	21:52
5	Nils Lundkvist	1	1	2	+3	5	0.20	1	1	16:45
6	Lian Bichsel	0	0	0	0	3	0.01	3	1	13:14
46	Ilya Lyubushkin	0	0	0	+1	1	0.01	2	2	12:14

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Jake Oettinger	25	4	21	.840	2.53	-1.47

Winnipeg Jets

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
55	Mark Scheifele	0	3	3	+2	3	0.21	0	0	21:16
81	Kyle Connor	3	0	3	+1	10	0.37	0	0	19:45
13	Gabriel Vilardi	0	1	1	-1	3	0.35	2	1	19:08
19	Jonathan Toews	0	0	0	0	3	0.22	0	0	18:19
9	Alex Iafallo	0	0	0	0	3	0.02	1	1	16:06
7	Vladislav Namestnikov	0	0	0	0	2	0.14	2	0	15:21
62	Nino Niederreiter	0	0	0	0	6	0.50	4	0	15:07
14	Gustav Nyquist	0	0	0	0	3	0.06	1	0	14:05
36	Morgan Barron	1	0	1	-1	1	0.21	2	1	10:03
70	Tanner Pearson	0	0	0	-1	2	0.24	1	0	07:33
45	Cole Koepke	0	0	0	-2	2	0.00	6	0	07:18
Defense
44	Josh Morrissey	0	0	0	+2	3	0.00	0	1	27:04
4	Neal Pionk	0	0	0	-1	5	0.07	3	0	23:28
2	Dylan DeMelo	0	2	2	0	2	0.00	1	1	21:03
24	Haydn Fleury	0	0	0	-1	3	0.10	4	2	19:38
2	Luke Schenn	0	0	0	0	3	0.01	3	1	11:33
8	Logan Stanley	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	10:33

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Connor Hellebuyck	37	5	32	.865	4.24	-0.76

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Dallas Stars

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
96 Mikko Rantanen R	+3.79	+2.15	+0.44	+0.93	+0.30	0.00	-0.02	—	18:48
21 Jason Robertson L	+2.59	+1.30	+0.70	+0.53	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	18:09
5 Nils Lundkvist D	+2.59	+1.45	+0.13	+0.96	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	16:45
91 Tyler Seguin C	+2.46	+0.75	+0.45	+1.27	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	15:27
24 Roope Hintz C	+2.17	+1.25	+0.35	+0.72	-0.15	-0.01	0.00	—	19:25
55 Thomas Harley D	+2.05	+1.10	+0.02	+0.68	0.00	0.00	+0.25	—	21:52
95 Matt Duchene C	+1.87	+0.70	0.00	+1.00	+0.15	+0.02	0.00	—	15:25
53 Wyatt Johnston C	+1.69	+0.75	+0.18	+0.70	0.00	+0.02	+0.03	—	20:05
18 Sam Steel C	+1.63	+0.55	+0.40	+0.61	0.00	+0.02	+0.05	—	14:07
23 Esa Lindell D	+0.90	0.00	+0.02	+0.85	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	21:55
22 Mavrik Bourque C	+0.62	0.00	+0.05	+0.54	0.00	-0.02	+0.05	—	11:48
4 Miro Heiskanen D	+0.54	0.00	+0.21	+0.12	+0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	27:02
46 Ilya Lyubushkin D	+0.53	0.00	+0.01	+0.61	-0.15	0.00	+0.06	—	12:14
6 Lian Bichsel D	+0.04	0.00	+0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	13:14
15 Colin Blackwell C	-0.28	0.00	0.00	-0.32	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	11:53
49 Justin Hryckowian C	-0.29	0.00	+0.04	-0.38	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	8:47
11 Nathan Bastian R	-0.32	0.00	+0.06	-0.42	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	7:46
12 Radek Faksa C	-0.33	0.00	+0.01	-0.34	0.00	+0.02	-0.02	—	13:21
29 Jake Oettinger G	-1.47	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-1.47	60:00

Winnipeg Jets

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
81 Kyle Connor L	+1.84	+2.25	+0.24	-0.63	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	19:45
55 Mark Scheifele C	+1.81	+2.10	+0.14	-0.41	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	21:16
44 Josh Morrissey D	+1.08	0.00	0.00	+1.16	-0.15	0.00	+0.07	—	27:04
2 Dylan DeMelo D	+1.03	+1.10	0.00	+0.07	-0.15	0.00	+0.01	—	21:03
62 Nino Niederreiter R	+0.41	0.00	+0.33	+0.08	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:07
36 Morgan Barron C	+0.32	+0.75	+0.14	-0.62	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	10:03
70 Tanner Pearson L	+0.20	0.00	+0.16	+0.08	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	7:33
14 Gustav Nyquist R	+0.02	0.00	+0.04	-0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	14:05
19 Jonathan Toews C	-0.07	0.00	+0.14	-0.22	0.00	-0.01	+0.02	—	18:19
7 Vladislav Namestnikov C	-0.33	0.00	+0.09	-0.38	0.00	-0.04	0.00	—	15:21
13 Gabriel Vilardi C	-0.35	+0.55	+0.23	-1.28	+0.15	+0.01	-0.01	—	19:08
9 Alex Iafallo L	-0.42	0.00	+0.01	-0.34	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	16:06
90 Nikita Chibrikov R	-0.53	0.00	0.00	-0.49	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	10:08
45 Cole Koepke L	-0.59	0.00	0.00	-0.57	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	7:18
37 Connor Hellebuyck G	-0.76	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.76	58:44
64 Logan Stanley D	-0.77	0.00	0.00	-0.75	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	10:33
4 Neal Pionk D	-0.93	0.00	+0.05	-0.80	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	23:28
5 Luke Schenn D	-1.27	0.00	+0.01	-1.32	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	11:33
24 Haydn Fleury D	-1.46	0.00	+0.07	-1.60	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	19:38

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.