Dallas Stars
Central Division, Western Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 34 | 14 | 9 | 77 | 193 | 160 | +33 | 67.5% |
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Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Feb 20, 2026
Analysis
Summary
The Dallas Stars are effectively locked into the playoffs with a 100.0% probability and are now focused on positioning rather than survival. With a projected 107.6 points, Dallas is firmly in the tier of true contenders, carrying meaningful odds to win the Central Division at 9.0% and the Western Conference at 17.9%.
Record and Recent Performance
Dallas sits at 34-14-9 for 77 points through 57 games, translating to a strong 67.5% points percentage that ranks among the West’s best. Their +33 goal differential, built on 193 goals for and 160 against, reflects a balanced roster that scores efficiently while limiting damage. A team strength rating of 63.9% aligns closely with Minnesota’s elite mark, and a 70.0% recent form suggests the Stars are trending upward rather than coasting.
The Competition
In the Central and broader Western Conference race, Dallas is effectively battling Minnesota for seeding, with the Wild holding a slim one-point edge at 78 points but projecting slightly lower at 107.3. Vegas sits nine points back at 68 and would need a major surge plus a Dallas stumble to close that gap, while Utah, Anaheim, and Seattle project in the mid-90s and are more focused on securing wild card spots. The realistic risk for Dallas is minimal, as the projected cutline of 90.6 points is far below their current trajectory.
Remaining Schedule
The Stars have 25 games remaining with a favorable 15 home and 10 road split, where their home strength of 64.8% should pay dividends. Their remaining opponents average a 53.2% strength rating, exactly league average, making this a manageable slate rather than a gauntlet. With an expected 30.6 additional points, Dallas is on pace to comfortably clear 105 points and potentially challenge for second in the conference depending on head-to-head results.
Outlook
Dallas’s playoff path is secure, and the emphasis now shifts to sharpening form and jockeying for matchup advantages. If their recent performance holds and home-ice results stay strong, the Stars are well positioned not just to make the postseason, but to enter it as a legitimate threat to come out of the West.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has already reached that threshold. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 100.0% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 105–111 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 89–92 points. Finishes above the cutline in 100.0% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Western Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 78 | 58 | 24 | 65.9% | 85.0% | 53.1% | 107.3 | 100.0% | |
| 3 | 77 | 57 | 25 | 63.9% | 70.0% | 53.2% | 107.6 | 100.0% | |
| 4 | 68 | 57 | 25 | 52.5% | 40.0% | 53.2% | 96.3 | 91.1% | |
| 5 | 64 | 57 | 25 | 59.6% | 70.0% | 52.3% | 94.4 | 86.1% | |
| 6 | 64 | 58 | 24 | 52.1% | 50.0% | 53.3% | 90.6 | 58.5% | |
| 7 | 63 | 56 | 26 | 53.4% | 60.0% | 52.7% | 92.9 | 76.5% | |
| 8 | 63 | 56 | 26 | 56.6% | 80.0% | 49.1% | 94.9 | 86.2% | |
| 9 | 60 | 56 | 26 | 49.6% | 55.0% | 49.4% | 89.5 | 43.6% | |
| 10 | 59 | 57 | 25 | 45.6% | 45.0% | 53.0% | 85.7 | 19.3% | |
| 11 | 58 | 55 | 27 | 46.8% | 45.0% | 49.3% | 88.1 | 33.9% | |
| 12 | 53 | 57 | 25 | 42.4% | 40.0% | 52.9% | 78.7 | 1.0% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63.9% | 64.8% | 64.1% | 59.3% | 70.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | Mikko Rantanen | R | 54 | 20 | 49 | 69 | +2 | 0 | 38 | 27 | 20:12 | |
| 21 | Jason Robertson | L | 57 | 32 | 34 | 66 | +20 | 0 | 38 | 22 | 19:52 | |
| 53 | Wyatt Johnston | C | 57 | 29 | 30 | 59 | -3 | 0 | 24 | 44 | 20:02 | |
| 4 | Miro Heiskanen | D | 55 | 7 | 39 | 46 | +7 | 0 | 17 | 102 | 25:58 | |
| 24 | Roope Hintz | C | 52 | 15 | 28 | 43 | +15 | 0 | 57 | 17 | 17:27 | |
| 18 | Sam Steel | C | 57 | 7 | 16 | 23 | -2 | 0 | 58 | 23 | 16:12 | |
| 55 | Thomas Harley | D | 45 | 5 | 18 | 23 | -2 | 0 | 31 | 102 | 23:07 | |
| 22 | Mavrik Bourque | C | 57 | 11 | 11 | 22 | -2 | 0 | 45 | 17 | 14:23 | |
| 14 | Jamie Benn | L | 35 | 9 | 13 | 22 | +10 | 0 | 47 | 11 | 12:32 | |
| 23 | Esa Lindell | D | 57 | 5 | 17 | 22 | +18 | 0 | 24 | 129 | 23:44 | |
| 95 | Matt Duchene | C | 32 | 10 | 10 | 20 | -3 | 0 | 10 | 13 | 15:49 | |
| 49 | Justin Hryckowian | C | 56 | 8 | 11 | 19 | -2 | 0 | 86 | 25 | 12:18 | |
| 91 | Tyler Seguin | C | 27 | 7 | 10 | 17 | +10 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 16:39 | |
| 12 | Radek Faksa | C | 56 | 2 | 15 | 17 | +1 | 0 | 75 | 42 | 11:41 | |
| 28 | Alexander Petrovic | D | 50 | 2 | 7 | 9 | +3 | 0 | 82 | 77 | 15:33 | |
| 10 | Oskar Bäck | C | 47 | 4 | 4 | 8 | +3 | 0 | 18 | 25 | 12:15 | |
| 5 | Nils Lundkvist | D | 30 | 3 | 4 | 7 | +8 | 0 | 21 | 31 | 16:17 | |
| 15 | Colin Blackwell | C | 46 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -5 | 0 | 70 | 23 | 11:32 | |
| 46 | Ilya Lyubushkin | D | 40 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 0 | 57 | 69 | 16:09 | |
| 20 | Kyle Capobianco | D | 31 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 26 | 12:10 | |
| 73 | Adam Erne | L | 24 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 82 | 10 | 9:26 | |
| 11 | Nathan Bastian | R | 24 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 55 | 6 | 8:21 | |
| 74 | Vladislav Kolyachonok → BOS | D | 11 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 12:37 | |
| 6 | Lian Bichsel | D | 26 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +6 | 0 | 85 | 24 | 15:48 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 04 | vs STL | 5 - 4 | W |
| Feb 02 | vs WPG | 4 - 3 | W (OT/SO) |
| Jan 31 | @ UTA | 2 - 3 | W |
| Jan 29 | @ VGK | 4 - 5 | W (OT/SO) |
| Jan 27 | @ STL | 3 - 4 | W |
| Jan 23 | vs STL | 3 - 2 | W |
| Jan 22 | @ CBJ | 1 - 0 | L |
| Jan 20 | vs BOS | 6 - 2 | W |
| Jan 18 | vs TBL | 1 - 4 | L |
| Jan 15 | @ UTA | 2 - 1 | L |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 20:00 | vs Seattle Kraken | Home | 53.4% | 1.23 | DAL (56%) |
| Feb 28, 20:00 | vs Nashville Predators | Home | 45.6% | 1.31 | DAL (60%) |
| Mar 02, 22:00 | @ Vancouver Canucks | Away | 32.8% | 1.46 | DAL (69%) |
| Mar 03, 21:00 | @ Calgary Flames | Away | 44.6% | 1.20 | DAL (54%) |
| Mar 06, 20:00 | vs Colorado Avalanche | Home | 66.8% | 1.19 | DAL (53%) |
| Mar 08, 18:00 | vs Chicago Blackhawks | Home | 42.4% | 1.31 | DAL (61%) |
| Mar 10, 20:00 | vs Vegas Golden Knights | Home | 52.5% | 1.22 | DAL (56%) |
| Mar 12, 20:00 | vs Edmonton Oilers | Home | 52.1% | 1.26 | DAL (58%) |
| Mar 14, 20:00 | vs Detroit Red Wings | Home | 55.5% | 1.19 | DAL (54%) |
| Mar 16, 20:00 | vs Utah Mammoth | Home | 59.6% | 1.24 | DAL (57%) |
| Total Expected (Next 10 games): | 12.6 pts | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.