Winnipeg Jets ELIMINATED
Central Division, Western Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82 | 35 | 35 | 12 | 82 | 231 | 260 | -29 | 50.0% |
|
Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Apr 17, 2026
Likely First-Round Opponents
| Opponent | Probability | Likelihood |
|---|---|---|
Colorado Avalanche
|
1.9% |
Probabilities sum to 0.0% (= playoff probability). Remaining 100.0% = miss playoffs.
Analysis
Summary
The Winnipeg Jets are hanging by a mathematical thread, sitting at 82 points with a 0.4% playoff probability and three games remaining. Even with a slight uptick in their odds, they would need a near-perfect finish and significant help to reach a projected cutoff of 90.9 points. Realistically, their postseason hopes are all but extinguished.
Record and Recent Performance
At 35-32-12 through 79 games, Winnipeg’s 82 points translate to a 51.9% points percentage, a middling mark that reflects their season-long inconsistency. Their -18 goal differential (225 goals for, 243 against) underscores that they’ve been outscored by a meaningful margin, often putting themselves in tight games without enough finishing or defensive insulation. The underlying team strength rating of 52.6% suggests they’re slightly above average overall, stronger at home (55.8%) than on the road (50.7%), and their recent form at 70.0% indicates a late push. Unfortunately, that surge has come too late to meaningfully shift their playoff outlook.
The Competition
The Jets sit 10th in the conference race, five points back of the final playoff spot currently held by the Los Angeles Kings at 87 points, with Anaheim (89), Edmonton (90), Utah (90), and Vegas (91) all effectively locked in at 95% to 100% playoff odds. Even Nashville at 86 points has better positioning with 20.2% odds. Winnipeg would need to leapfrog at least three teams, including Los Angeles, whose projected finish is 90.9 points—the estimated cutoff. Given that the Kings, Ducks, and Oilers are all projected above 92 points and have stronger overall team ratings, the odds of multiple collapses aligning with a Jets surge are extremely slim.
Remaining Schedule
Winnipeg has three games left, one at home and two on the road, with an opponent strength of 54.5%, slightly above the league average of 52.7%, making this an average-to-tough closing stretch. Their road-heavy finish is notable given their weaker away strength rating of 50.7%. The model projects them to earn 3.4 points over these final three contests, bringing them to 85.4 points—well short of the 90.9-point projected cutoff. Even a perfect 6-point finish would only bring them to 88 points, which still likely wouldn’t be enough without widespread losses from the teams above them.
Outlook
The Jets’ late-season push has improved their form but not their fate, as the math and the standings both stand firmly against them. With a projected finish nearly six points shy of the playoff line and multiple teams needing to stumble simultaneously, Winnipeg’s path requires an extraordinary sequence of results. Barring a miracle, this week will mark the end of their 2025-26 season.
Bandwagon Options
Your team's playoff hopes are fading — here are some teams worth cheering for:
Carolina Hurricanes
Metropolitan · Eastern| W | L | OTL | PTS | Diff | Str | Playoff | Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 22 | 7 | 113 | +56 | 65.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
If you love structure and speed, Carolina is an easy bandwagon. The Hurricanes roll four lines, pressure relentlessly, and feel a lot like the Jets at their best—just with a bit more finish right now. It’s a smart, deep team that’s built for a long run.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Atlantic · Eastern| W | L | OTL | PTS | Diff | Str | Playoff | Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 26 | 6 | 106 | +59 | 60.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
Tampa Bay gives you star power and big-game pedigree. Watching Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point operate in the playoffs is pure entertainment, and Andrei Vasilevskiy can still steal a series. If you want a proven contender that knows how to flip the switch, this is it.
Buffalo Sabres
Atlantic · Eastern| W | L | OTL | PTS | Diff | Str | Playoff | Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 23 | 9 | 109 | +47 | 62.3% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
Buffalo is the fun, up-and-coming East team with serious firepower. Their young core plays fast and attacks in waves, which should appeal to Jets fans who appreciate skill up front. There’s also something satisfying about backing a long-suffering market chasing a breakthrough.
Edmonton Oilers
Pacific · Western| W | L | OTL | PTS | Diff | Str | Playoff | Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 30 | 11 | 93 | +13 | 57.2% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
If you’re staying in the West but avoiding the Central, Edmonton offers the superstar experience. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl can turn any game into must-watch TV, and a deep run would be all about offensive fireworks. It’s a low-effort, high-entertainment bandwagon.
Vegas Golden Knights
Pacific · Western| W | L | OTL | PTS | Diff | Str | Playoff | Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 26 | 17 | 95 | +15 | 60.8% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
Vegas is always in the mix and built for playoff hockey—big, structured, and opportunistic. They don’t overwhelm with flash, but they’re relentless and hard to put away. If you want a team that feels sturdy and battle-tested without Central Division baggage, the Knights fit nicely.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has mathematically clinched a playoff spot. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 82–82 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 90–90 points. Finishes above the cutline in 0.0% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Western Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 95 | 82 | 0 | 60.8% | 85.0% | 50.0% | 95.0 | 100.0% | |
| 5 | 93 | 82 | 0 | 57.2% | 70.0% | 50.0% | 93.0 | 100.0% | |
| 6 | 92 | 82 | 0 | 56.6% | 60.0% | 50.0% | 92.0 | 100.0% | |
| 7 | 92 | 82 | 0 | 46.5% | 30.0% | 50.0% | 92.0 | 100.0% | |
| 8 | 90 | 82 | 0 | 53.1% | 70.0% | 50.0% | 90.0 | 100.0% | |
| 9 | 86 | 82 | 0 | 51.0% | 65.0% | 50.0% | 86.0 | 0.0% | |
| 10 | 86 | 82 | 0 | 47.6% | 45.0% | 50.0% | 86.0 | 0.0% | |
| 11 | 86 | 82 | 0 | 48.0% | 55.0% | 50.0% | 86.0 | 0.0% | |
| 12 | 82 | 82 | 0 | 47.1% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 82.0 | 0.0% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47.1% | 50.5% | 44.8% | 44.1% | 50.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | Mark Scheifele | C | 82 | 36 | 67 | 103 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 46 | 21:30 | |
| 81 | Kyle Connor | L | 82 | 39 | 53 | 92 | -2 | 0 | 36 | 19 | 21:30 | |
| 13 | Gabriel Vilardi | C | 82 | 30 | 38 | 68 | -12 | 0 | 20 | 35 | 18:44 | |
| 44 | Josh Morrissey | D | 77 | 14 | 41 | 55 | +6 | 0 | 36 | 118 | 24:43 | |
| 91 | Cole Perfetti | C | 68 | 12 | 20 | 32 | -9 | 0 | 54 | 33 | 15:37 | |
| 19 | Jonathan Toews | C | 82 | 11 | 18 | 29 | -19 | 0 | 17 | 34 | 14:29 | |
| 9 | Alex Iafallo | L | 79 | 13 | 15 | 28 | +3 | 0 | 120 | 55 | 15:35 | |
| 36 | Morgan Barron | C | 65 | 11 | 12 | 23 | +5 | 0 | 132 | 40 | 12:48 | |
| 64 | Logan Stanley → BUF | D | 59 | 9 | 12 | 21 | -2 | 0 | 96 | 69 | 17:12 | |
| 17 | Adam Lowry | C | 70 | 5 | 16 | 21 | -6 | 0 | 150 | 48 | 14:58 | |
| 62 | Nino Niederreiter | R | 61 | 8 | 11 | 19 | -7 | 0 | 70 | 20 | 13:46 | |
| 2 | Dylan DeMelo | D | 82 | 3 | 15 | 18 | +7 | 0 | 115 | 109 | 21:27 | |
| 45 | Cole Koepke | L | 66 | 8 | 9 | 17 | +1 | 0 | 186 | 19 | 10:27 | |
| 7 | Vladislav Namestnikov | C | 60 | 8 | 6 | 14 | -13 | 0 | 76 | 37 | 13:46 | |
| 54 | Dylan Samberg | D | 66 | 1 | 13 | 14 | +5 | 0 | 53 | 115 | 21:49 | |
| 70 | Tanner Pearson → BUF | L | 52 | 7 | 6 | 13 | +7 | 0 | 68 | 26 | 10:53 | |
| 4 | Neal Pionk | D | 51 | 3 | 9 | 12 | +1 | 0 | 111 | 75 | 22:42 | |
| 14 | Gustav Nyquist | R | 51 | 1 | 11 | 12 | -8 | 0 | 28 | 19 | 12:40 | |
| 5 | Luke Schenn → BUF | D | 46 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -11 | 0 | 139 | 54 | 13:44 | |
| 93 | Brad Lambert | C | 21 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 0 | 19 | 5 | 11:08 | |
| 57 | Elias Salomonsson | D | 28 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 0 | 45 | 21 | 18:25 | |
| 24 | Haydn Fleury | D | 38 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -18 | 0 | 54 | 56 | 13:55 | |
| 27 | Isak Rosen ← BUF | R | 21 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 10:41 | |
| 78 | Jacob Bryson ← BUF | D | 15 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -8 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 12:47 | |
| 6 | Colin Miller | D | 18 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -8 | 0 | 29 | 13 | 14:16 | |
| 53 | Danil Zhilkin | C | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 7:35 | |
| 90 | Nikita Chibrikov | R | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 9:10 | |
| 25 | Parker Ford | C | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 9:33 | |
| 3 | Isaak Phillips | D | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9:31 | |
| 71 | Walker Duehr | R | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 9:30 | |
| 34 | Ville Heinola | D | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 14:06 | |
| 29 | Brayden Yager | C | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:59 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Location | Score | Result | Opp Strength | Playoff Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | San Jose Sharks | Home | 1 - 6 | L | 48.0% | 0.0% |
| Apr 14 | Utah Mammoth | Away | 5 - 3 | L | 56.6% | 0.0% |
| Apr 13 | Vegas Golden Knights | Away | 6 - 2 | L | 60.8% | -1.6% |
| Apr 11 | Philadelphia Flyers | Home | 1 - 7 | L | 57.6% | -10.6% |
| Apr 09 | St. Louis Blues | Away | 2 - 3 | W | 51.0% | +4.4% |
| Apr 06 | Seattle Kraken | Home | 6 - 2 | W | 41.1% | +2.7% |
| Apr 04 | Columbus Blue Jackets | Away | 1 - 2 | W | 46.8% | +3.1% |
| Apr 02 | Dallas Stars | Away | 3 - 0 | L | 65.7% | -6.0% |
| Mar 31 | Chicago Blackhawks | Away | 3 - 4 (OT) | W | 36.9% | +4.1% |
| Mar 28 | Colorado Avalanche | Away | 2 - 4 | W | 69.3% | +3.0% |