Winnipeg Jets
Central Division, Western Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 22 | 26 | 8 | 52 | 160 | 175 | -15 | 46.4% |
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Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Feb 20, 2026
Analysis
Summary
The Winnipeg Jets are on the fringes of the Western Conference race with just a 2.8% chance of making the playoffs and essentially no path to a division or conference title. At 52 points through 56 games, they sit well below the cutline and would need a near-perfect finish combined with help from multiple teams ahead of them.
Record and Recent Performance
Winnipeg’s 22-26-8 record translates to a 46.4% points percentage, which is not playoff-caliber in the West this season. Their goal differential of minus-15 reflects a team that has struggled to control games consistently, and that shows up in a modest overall strength rating of 45.7%, with a noticeable drop-off on the road at 42.4%. Recent form at 45.0% suggests they are playing slightly below league average hockey, offering little evidence of the kind of surge needed to climb the standings quickly.
The Competition
The Jets are currently 13th in the conference, eight points back of the playoff cutline held by Anaheim at 63 points, with the Ducks projected to finish around 94.9 points. Even teams just outside the playoffs like Los Angeles at 60 points and San Jose at 58 points are projected closer to the cutoff than Winnipeg, while Edmonton, Seattle, and Utah all sit in the mid-60s with much stronger playoff odds. Realistically, Winnipeg would need to leapfrog at least five teams, most of whom have higher strength ratings and better projections, making upward movement extremely difficult.
Remaining Schedule
The Jets have 26 games left with an even 13 home and 13 road split, and a balanced, average-difficulty schedule featuring opponents with a combined strength of 51.3%. Based on current performance levels, they are expected to earn about 28.5 more points, which would bring them to a projected total of 80.5 points. With the projected playoff cutoff sitting at roughly 90.6 points, Winnipeg would need to outperform expectations by around 10 points just to get into the conversation.
Outlook
Barring a dramatic and sustained turnaround, the Jets are far more likely headed toward a non-playoff finish than a late-season miracle. Their remaining schedule is not overly punishing, but the math of the standings and the number of teams to pass leave almost no margin for error. At this stage, the focus is shifting from chasing a playoff spot to evaluating the roster and building momentum for next season.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has already reached that threshold. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 2.8% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 77–84 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 89–92 points. Finishes above the cutline in 3.0% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Western Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 68 | 57 | 25 | 52.5% | 40.0% | 53.2% | 96.3 | 91.1% | |
| 5 | 64 | 57 | 25 | 59.6% | 70.0% | 52.3% | 94.4 | 86.1% | |
| 6 | 64 | 58 | 24 | 52.1% | 50.0% | 53.3% | 90.6 | 58.5% | |
| 7 | 63 | 56 | 26 | 53.4% | 60.0% | 52.7% | 92.9 | 76.5% | |
| 8 | 63 | 56 | 26 | 56.6% | 80.0% | 49.1% | 94.9 | 86.2% | |
| 9 | 60 | 56 | 26 | 49.6% | 55.0% | 49.4% | 89.5 | 43.6% | |
| 10 | 59 | 57 | 25 | 45.6% | 45.0% | 53.0% | 85.7 | 19.3% | |
| 11 | 58 | 55 | 27 | 46.8% | 45.0% | 49.3% | 88.1 | 33.9% | |
| 12 | 53 | 57 | 25 | 42.4% | 40.0% | 52.9% | 78.7 | 1.0% | |
| 13 | 52 | 56 | 26 | 45.7% | 45.0% | 51.3% | 80.5 | 2.8% | |
| 14 | 52 | 56 | 26 | 44.6% | 50.0% | 54.5% | 78.3 | 1.1% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45.7% | 51.0% | 42.4% | 45.5% | 45.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | Mark Scheifele | C | 56 | 27 | 41 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 29 | 21:04 | |
| 81 | Kyle Connor | L | 56 | 25 | 39 | 64 | -3 | 0 | 14 | 9 | 21:08 | |
| 13 | Gabriel Vilardi | C | 56 | 21 | 29 | 50 | -2 | 0 | 14 | 24 | 18:39 | |
| 44 | Josh Morrissey | D | 56 | 10 | 32 | 42 | +10 | 0 | 25 | 94 | 24:37 | |
| 9 | Alex Iafallo | L | 56 | 9 | 11 | 20 | +1 | 0 | 77 | 40 | 15:10 | |
| 62 | Nino Niederreiter | R | 55 | 8 | 11 | 19 | -4 | 0 | 66 | 20 | 13:54 | |
| 19 | Jonathan Toews | C | 56 | 7 | 12 | 19 | -17 | 0 | 14 | 26 | 15:07 | |
| 64 | Logan Stanley | D | 55 | 9 | 9 | 18 | -4 | 0 | 91 | 68 | 16:33 | |
| 91 | Cole Perfetti | C | 42 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -8 | 0 | 33 | 19 | 14:39 | |
| 36 | Morgan Barron | C | 47 | 7 | 10 | 17 | +5 | 0 | 104 | 24 | 12:33 | |
| 2 | Dylan DeMelo | D | 56 | 3 | 14 | 17 | +10 | 0 | 83 | 82 | 21:32 | |
| 17 | Adam Lowry | C | 44 | 4 | 10 | 14 | +2 | 0 | 86 | 31 | 14:26 | |
| 7 | Vladislav Namestnikov | C | 55 | 7 | 6 | 13 | -10 | 0 | 70 | 35 | 14:03 | |
| 45 | Cole Koepke | L | 40 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 122 | 9 | 9:57 | |
| 70 | Tanner Pearson | L | 47 | 7 | 3 | 10 | +4 | 0 | 63 | 24 | 10:50 | |
| 54 | Dylan Samberg | D | 40 | 0 | 9 | 9 | -1 | 0 | 36 | 66 | 21:15 | |
| 14 | Gustav Nyquist | R | 35 | 0 | 9 | 9 | -4 | 0 | 21 | 16 | 12:58 | |
| 4 | Neal Pionk | D | 40 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 0 | 84 | 64 | 22:47 | |
| 5 | Luke Schenn | D | 42 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -9 | 0 | 132 | 53 | 13:45 | |
| 6 | Colin Miller | D | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -8 | 0 | 25 | 10 | 13:45 | |
| 57 | Elias Salomonsson | D | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 17:57 | |
| 53 | Danil Zhilkin | C | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8:14 | |
| 24 | Haydn Fleury | D | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7 | 0 | 23 | 26 | 13:55 | |
| 3 | Isaak Phillips | D | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8:11 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 04 | vs MTL | 1 - 5 | L |
| Feb 02 | @ DAL | 4 - 3 | L (OT/SO) |
| Jan 31 | @ FLA | 1 - 2 | W |
| Jan 29 | @ TBL | 4 - 1 | L |
| Jan 27 | @ NJD | 3 - 4 | W |
| Jan 24 | vs DET | 1 - 5 | L |
| Jan 22 | vs FLA | 1 - 2 | L (OT/SO) |
| Jan 20 | vs STL | 3 - 1 | W |
| Jan 19 | @ CHI | 2 - 0 | L |
| Jan 17 | vs TOR | 3 - 4 | L (OT/SO) |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 22:00 | @ Vancouver Canucks | Away | 32.8% | 1.30 | WPG (60%) |
| Feb 27, 22:00 | @ Anaheim Ducks | Away | 56.6% | 0.92 | ANA (61%) |
| Mar 01, 16:00 | @ San Jose Sharks | Away | 46.8% | 1.04 | SJS (55%) |
| Mar 03, 20:00 | vs Chicago Blackhawks | Home | 42.4% | 1.21 | WPG (55%) |
| Mar 05, 20:00 | vs Tampa Bay Lightning | Home | 71.7% | 0.97 | TBL (59%) |
| Mar 07, 19:00 | vs Vancouver Canucks | Home | 32.8% | 1.23 | WPG (56%) |
| Mar 10, 20:30 | vs Anaheim Ducks | Home | 56.6% | 1.14 | WPG (51%) |
| Mar 12, 20:00 | vs New York Rangers | Home | 37.8% | 1.19 | WPG (53%) |
| Mar 14, 16:00 | vs Colorado Avalanche | Home | 66.8% | 1.08 | COL (53%) |
| Mar 15, 15:00 | vs St. Louis Blues | Home | 35.1% | 1.38 | WPG (65%) |
| Total Expected (Next 10 games): | 11.5 pts | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.