Winnipeg Jets

Central Division, Western Conference

Current Standings

GP	W	L	OTL	PTS	GF	GA	DIFF	PTS %	Last 10
2	1	0	1	3	6	6	0	75.0%

Playoff Probabilities

4.7%

Make Playoffs

0.1%

Win Division

0.0%

Win Conference

0.0%

Win Stanley Cup

Based on 100,000 simulations run on Oct 05, 2026

Likely First-Round Opponents

Opponent	Probability	Likelihood
Dallas Stars	1.0%
Calgary Flames	0.9%
Chicago Blackhawks	0.9%

Probabilities sum to 4.7% (= playoff probability). Remaining 95.3% = miss playoffs.

Analysis

Summary

The Winnipeg Jets are hanging by a mathematical thread, sitting at 82 points with a 0.4% playoff probability and three games remaining. Even with a slight uptick in their odds, they would need a near-perfect finish and significant help to reach a projected cutoff of 90.9 points. Realistically, their postseason hopes are all but extinguished.

Record and Recent Performance

At 35-32-12 through 79 games, Winnipeg’s 82 points translate to a 51.9% points percentage, a middling mark that reflects their season-long inconsistency. Their -18 goal differential (225 goals for, 243 against) underscores that they’ve been outscored by a meaningful margin, often putting themselves in tight games without enough finishing or defensive insulation. The underlying team strength rating of 52.6% suggests they’re slightly above average overall, stronger at home (55.8%) than on the road (50.7%), and their recent form at 70.0% indicates a late push. Unfortunately, that surge has come too late to meaningfully shift their playoff outlook.

The Competition

The Jets sit 10th in the conference race, five points back of the final playoff spot currently held by the Los Angeles Kings at 87 points, with Anaheim (89), Edmonton (90), Utah (90), and Vegas (91) all effectively locked in at 95% to 100% playoff odds. Even Nashville at 86 points has better positioning with 20.2% odds. Winnipeg would need to leapfrog at least three teams, including Los Angeles, whose projected finish is 90.9 points—the estimated cutoff. Given that the Kings, Ducks, and Oilers are all projected above 92 points and have stronger overall team ratings, the odds of multiple collapses aligning with a Jets surge are extremely slim.

Remaining Schedule

Winnipeg has three games left, one at home and two on the road, with an opponent strength of 54.5%, slightly above the league average of 52.7%, making this an average-to-tough closing stretch. Their road-heavy finish is notable given their weaker away strength rating of 50.7%. The model projects them to earn 3.4 points over these final three contests, bringing them to 85.4 points—well short of the 90.9-point projected cutoff. Even a perfect 6-point finish would only bring them to 88 points, which still likely wouldn’t be enough without widespread losses from the teams above them.

Outlook

The Jets’ late-season push has improved their form but not their fate, as the math and the standings both stand firmly against them. With a projected finish nearly six points shy of the playoff line and multiple teams needing to stumble simultaneously, Winnipeg’s path requires an extraordinary sequence of results. Barring a miracle, this week will mark the end of their 2025-26 season.

Generated Apr 12, 2026 7:00 AM — AI-generated, may contain inaccuracies

Bandwagon Options

Your team's playoff hopes are fading — here are some teams worth cheering for:

Carolina Hurricanes

Metropolitan · Eastern

W	L	OTL	PTS	Diff	Str	Playoff	Cup
1	1	1	3	-3	44.0%	75.9%	3.8%

If you love structure and speed, Carolina is an easy bandwagon. The Hurricanes roll four lines, pressure relentlessly, and feel a lot like the Jets at their best—just with a bit more finish right now. It’s a smart, deep team that’s built for a long run.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Atlantic · Eastern

W	L	OTL	PTS	Diff	Str	Playoff	Cup
1	1	0	2	-2	41.4%	48.5%	1.1%

Tampa Bay gives you star power and big-game pedigree. Watching Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point operate in the playoffs is pure entertainment, and Andrei Vasilevskiy can still steal a series. If you want a proven contender that knows how to flip the switch, this is it.

Buffalo Sabres

Atlantic · Eastern

W	L	OTL	PTS	Diff	Str	Playoff	Cup
1	1	0	2	-2	43.8%	59.5%	1.9%

Buffalo is the fun, up-and-coming East team with serious firepower. Their young core plays fast and attacks in waves, which should appeal to Jets fans who appreciate skill up front. There’s also something satisfying about backing a long-suffering market chasing a breakthrough.

Edmonton Oilers

Pacific · Western

W	L	OTL	PTS	Diff	Str	Playoff	Cup
2	0	1	5	+3	70.8%	43.8%	0.6%

If you’re staying in the West but avoiding the Central, Edmonton offers the superstar experience. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl can turn any game into must-watch TV, and a deep run would be all about offensive fireworks. It’s a low-effort, high-entertainment bandwagon.

Vegas Golden Knights

Pacific · Western

W	L	OTL	PTS	Diff	Str	Playoff	Cup
2	1	0	4	+3	62.7%	66.1%	1.9%

Vegas is always in the mix and built for playoff hockey—big, structured, and opportunistic. They don’t overwhelm with flash, but they’re relentless and hard to put away. If you want a team that feels sturdy and battle-tested without Central Division baggage, the Knights fit nicely.

Generated Mar 08, 2026 6:00 AM — AI-generated, may contain inaccuracies

Required Win Percentage for Playoffs

52.4%

Coin Flip (50%)

Even odds

54.1%

Likely (75%)

Probable scenario

56.2%

Near-Certain (95%)

Safe scenario

Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has mathematically clinched a playoff spot. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.

Playoff Probability Breakdown

Understanding the factors that drive the 4.7% playoff probability

📊 Schedule Context

Remaining Games: 41 home, 41 away (50% home)

Schedule Balance: Balanced

Opponent Strength: 52.4% (vs 52.1% avg)

Schedule Difficulty: Average

🎯 Key Factors

Conference Position: 10 in Western

Projected Points: 81.3 pts

Expected Points (Remaining): 78.3 pts

Based on: 100,000 simulations

🏒 Playoff Picture

8th Place Cutoff: ~96.7 pts (projected)

Points Gap: 15.4 pts below cutoff

Current Points: 3 pts

Analysis

⚠️ Extremely slim playoff chances remaining

Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.

Points Distribution vs. Cutline

Projected to finish with 76–87 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 94–97 points. Finishes above the cutline in 6.3% of simulations.

46 118

Team points Playoff cutline (8th place) Cutline middle 50% range

Team Projection

Low (10th pctile): 71 pts

Median (50th): 81 pts

High (90th pctile): 92 pts

Playoff Cutline

Low (10th pctile): 92 pts

Median (50th): 96 pts

High (90th pctile): 99 pts

Playoff Race — Western Conference

#	Team	PTS	GP	Left	STR	L10	SOS	Proj PTS	Playoff %
4	UTA	4	3	79	73.6%	55.0%	51.3%	101.7	79.3%
5	VGK	4	3	79	62.7%	50.0%	52.3%	97.8	66.1%
6	SEA	4	3	79	73.6%	50.0%	52.3%	97.6	65.3%
7	ANA	4	2	80	72.1%	45.0%	51.4%	86.3	15.5%
8	VAN	4	4	78	49.4%	40.0%	52.6%	81.0	5.1%

9	SJS	4	2	80	75.2%	70.0%	51.7%	85.9	14.4%
10	WPG	3	2	80	53.5%	30.0%	52.4%	81.3	4.7%
11	STL	2	2	80	47.5%	60.0%	52.5%	92.1	34.8%
12	NSH	2	2	80	39.0%	30.0%	52.9%	84.2	8.9%

Today's Impact

Game		Impact
PIT vs WPG	WPG playing	PIT win: -0.8% WPG win: +1.3%

Yesterday's Impact

Result		Impact
DET 2 - WPG 3	WPG played	+1.8%
Net:		+1.8%

Team Strength Metrics

Overall Strength	Home Strength	Away Strength	Pythagorean Win %	Recent Form
53.5%	38.9%	33.3%	50.0%	30.0%

Player Statistics

#	Player	Pos	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	HIT	BLK	TOI
55	Mark Scheifele	C	84	36	67	103	-2	32	46	21:28
81	Kyle Connor	L	84	42	55	97	-4	38	21	21:29
13	Gabriel Vilardi	C	84	30	40	70	-14	20	35	18:41
44	Josh Morrissey	D	79	14	43	57	+4	37	122	24:41
91	Cole Perfetti	C	70	13	23	36	-11	57	35	15:40
9	Alex Iafallo	L	81	13	15	28	+4	122	58	15:30
36	Morgan Barron	C	67	11	13	24	+5	139	42	12:55
17	Adam Lowry	C	72	5	18	23	-7	153	50	14:59
62	Nino Niederreiter	R	63	8	11	19	-6	72	20	13:42
2	Dylan DeMelo	D	84	4	15	19	+6	116	111	21:28
7	Vladislav Namestnikov	C	62	8	6	14	-13	76	38	13:44
54	Dylan Samberg	D	68	1	13	14	+5	54	120	21:48
4	Neal Pionk	D	53	3	9	12	-1	114	80	22:46
93	Brad Lambert	C	23	2	3	5	-4	22	5	11:08
27	Isak Rosen	R	23	3	0	3	-3	10	12	10:47
38	Mario Ferraro ← SJS	D	2	1	0	1	0	4	3	19:08
61	Viggo Björck	C	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:28
6	Jack St. Ivany ← PIT	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
77	Tyrel Bauer	D	2	0	0	0	0	5	2	7:17
29	Brayden Yager	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
45	Cole Koepke	L	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Colin Miller	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
53	Danil Zhilkin	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
57	Elias Salomonsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Gustav Nyquist	R	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	Haydn Fleury	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Isaak Phillips	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Jonathan Toews	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
90	Nikita Chibrikov	R	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	Parker Ford	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
71	Walker Duehr	R	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Ville Heinola	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
78	Jacob Bryson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
70	Tanner Pearson	L	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Luke Schenn	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Logan Stanley	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Recent Games (Last 10)

Date	Opponent	Location	Score	Result	Opp Strength	Playoff Impact
Oct 04	Detroit Red Wings	Away	2 - 3	W	14.9%	+1.8%
Oct 02	Boston Bruins	Home	3 - 4 (OT)	OTL	59.3%	-2.5%
Sep 25	Colorado Avalanche	Away	5 - 2	L	82.3%	-
Sep 22	Edmonton Oilers	Home	1 - 2 (OT)	OTL	70.8%	-
Sep 21	Colorado Avalanche	Home	3 - 1	W	82.3%	-
Sep 19	Edmonton Oilers	Away	5 - 2	L	70.8%	-
Apr 16	San Jose Sharks	Home	1 - 6	L	75.2%	0.0%
Apr 14	Utah Mammoth	Away	5 - 3	L	73.6%	0.0%
Apr 13	Vegas Golden Knights	Away	6 - 2	L	62.7%	-1.6%
Apr 11	Philadelphia Flyers	Home	1 - 7	L	20.3%	-10.6%

Upcoming Games

Date	Opponent	Location	Opp Strength	Exp Pts	Playoff Swing	Predicted Winner
Oct 05, 19:30	@ Pittsburgh Penguins	Away	86.6%	0.95	2.1%	PIT (60%)
Oct 07, 19:30	vs Colorado Avalanche	Home	82.3%	0.97	2.2%	COL (59%)
Oct 09, 20:00	vs Anaheim Ducks	Home	72.1%	1.18	1.8%	WPG (53%)
Oct 13, 20:15	vs Minnesota Wild	Home	86.2%	1.01	-	MIN (57%)
Oct 15, 20:00	@ Chicago Blackhawks	Away	12.0%	0.76	-	CHI (71%)
Oct 17, 15:30	vs Carolina Hurricanes	Home	44.0%	0.93	-	CAR (61%)
Oct 20, 20:00	@ St. Louis Blues	Away	47.5%	0.91	-	STL (62%)
Oct 22, 20:00	@ Dallas Stars	Away	12.4%	0.76	-	DAL (71%)
Oct 25, 19:00	vs Montréal Canadiens	Home	59.5%	0.98	-	MTL (58%)
Oct 27, 20:00	vs Florida Panthers	Home	57.2%	1.13	-	WPG (50%)
Averages (Next 10 games):				9.6 pts	2.0%

Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.