Winnipeg Jets

Central Division, Western Conference

Current Standings

GP	W	L	OTL	PTS	GF	GA	DIFF	PTS %	Last 10
76	33	31	12	78	215	232	-17	51.3%

Playoff Probabilities

1.2%

Make Playoffs

0.0%

Win Division

0.0%

Win Conference

0.0%

Win Stanley Cup

Based on 100,000 simulations run on Apr 07, 2026

Likely First-Round Opponents

Opponent	Probability	Likelihood
Colorado Avalanche	1.2%

Probabilities sum to 1.2% (= playoff probability). Remaining 98.8% = miss playoffs.

Analysis

Summary

The Winnipeg Jets are on the brink, sitting at 76 points with just a 4.1% chance of reaching the playoffs after a sharp 6.9% drop. With seven games left and a projected finish of 83.7 points, they’re tracking well below the expected Western Conference cutoff of 87.9. At this stage, Winnipeg likely needs close to a perfect run to have any realistic shot.

Record and Recent Performance

At 32-31-12 through 75 games, Winnipeg’s 50.7% points percentage reflects a team that has hovered around .500 all season, reinforced by a -18 goal differential (213 scored, 231 allowed). Their underlying team strength rating of 50.2% paints them as essentially league average, stronger at home (54.7%) than on the road (46.9%). The recent 60.0% form offers some encouragement, suggesting they’ve been playing better of late, but the margin for error created by months of inconsistency is now razor thin.

The Competition

The Jets are 12th in the conference and five points back of Nashville, who currently hold the final playoff spot at 79 points, with San Jose and Los Angeles also sitting at 79. Even if Winnipeg jumps those three clubs, they would still need help to catch teams like Vegas and Utah at 84 points, let alone Edmonton and Anaheim at 87. With Nashville projected for 86.9 points and San Jose for 87.9, the math requires multiple teams to underperform simultaneously while Winnipeg surges, which explains the slim 4.1% odds.

Remaining Schedule

Winnipeg has seven games remaining, three at home and four on the road, with an average-strength slate (51.1% opponent strength compared to a 52.9% league average). The model expects 7.7 more points, which would leave them short of the projected cutoff. To reach 88 points — a likely safe number — they’d need to collect 12 of a possible 14 points, essentially going 6-1-0 or better. Given their road-heavy finish and middling away performance, that’s a tall order.

Outlook

The Jets’ path is clear but narrow: string together a near-flawless final stretch and hope the teams above them stumble. While their recent play shows life, their overall body of work and the crowded race ahead leave almost no margin for error. Winnipeg isn’t mathematically out of it, but realistically, their playoff hopes are hanging by a thread.

Generated Apr 04, 2026 7:00 AM — AI-generated, may contain inaccuracies

Bandwagon Options

Your team's playoff hopes are fading — here are some teams worth cheering for:

Carolina Hurricanes

Metropolitan · Eastern

W	L	OTL	PTS	Diff	Str	Playoff	Cup
49	22	6	104	+47	63.9%	100.0%	9.3%

If you love structure and speed, Carolina is an easy bandwagon. The Hurricanes roll four lines, pressure relentlessly, and feel a lot like the Jets at their best—just with a bit more finish right now. It’s a smart, deep team that’s built for a long run.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Atlantic · Eastern

W	L	OTL	PTS	Diff	Str	Playoff	Cup
48	22	6	102	+66	67.8%	100.0%	11.0%

Tampa Bay gives you star power and big-game pedigree. Watching Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point operate in the playoffs is pure entertainment, and Andrei Vasilevskiy can still steal a series. If you want a proven contender that knows how to flip the switch, this is it.

Buffalo Sabres

Atlantic · Eastern

W	L	OTL	PTS	Diff	Str	Playoff	Cup
46	23	8	100	+35	60.0%	100.0%	5.6%

Buffalo is the fun, up-and-coming East team with serious firepower. Their young core plays fast and attacks in waves, which should appeal to Jets fans who appreciate skill up front. There’s also something satisfying about backing a long-suffering market chasing a breakthrough.

Edmonton Oilers

Pacific · Western

W	L	OTL	PTS	Diff	Str	Playoff	Cup
39	29	9	87	+8	56.7%	98.4%	5.5%

If you’re staying in the West but avoiding the Central, Edmonton offers the superstar experience. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl can turn any game into must-watch TV, and a deep run would be all about offensive fireworks. It’s a low-effort, high-entertainment bandwagon.

Vegas Golden Knights

Pacific · Western

W	L	OTL	PTS	Diff	Str	Playoff	Cup
35	26	16	86	+7	52.5%	96.2%	3.8%

Vegas is always in the mix and built for playoff hockey—big, structured, and opportunistic. They don’t overwhelm with flash, but they’re relentless and hard to put away. If you want a team that feels sturdy and battle-tested without Central Division baggage, the Knights fit nicely.

Generated Mar 08, 2026 6:00 AM — AI-generated, may contain inaccuracies

Required Win Percentage for Playoffs

80.7%

Coin Flip (50%)

Even odds

—

Likely (75%)

Probable scenario

—

Near-Certain (95%)

Safe scenario

Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has mathematically clinched a playoff spot. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.

Playoff Probability Breakdown

Understanding the factors that drive the 1.2% playoff probability

📊 Schedule Context

Remaining Games: 2 home, 3 away (40% home)

Schedule Balance: Road-Heavy ⚠️

Opponent Strength: 52.6% (vs 53.0% avg)

Schedule Difficulty: Average

🎯 Key Factors

Conference Position: 12 in Western

Projected Points: 83.5 pts

Expected Points (Remaining): 5.5 pts

Based on: 100,000 simulations

🏒 Playoff Picture

8th Place Cutoff: ~88.1 pts (projected)

Points Gap: 4.6 pts below cutoff

Current Points: 78 pts

Analysis

⚠️ Road-heavy schedule ahead (3 away, 2 home) may impact playoff chances

⚠️ Extremely slim playoff chances remaining

Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.

Points Distribution vs. Cutline

Projected to finish with 82–85 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 88–90 points. Finishes above the cutline in 1.5% of simulations.

78 93

Team points Playoff cutline (8th place) Cutline middle 50% range

Team Projection

Low (10th pctile): 81 pts

Median (50th): 84 pts

High (90th pctile): 86 pts

Playoff Cutline

Low (10th pctile): 88 pts

Median (50th): 89 pts

High (90th pctile): 91 pts

Playoff Race — Western Conference

#	Team	PTS	GP	Left	STR	L10	SOS	Proj PTS	Playoff %
4	EDM	87	77	5	56.7%	70.0%	50.5%	92.8	98.4%
5	ANA	87	77	5	50.6%	50.0%	48.3%	92.8	96.8%
6	UTA	86	76	6	57.2%	60.0%	53.6%	93.1	98.3%
7	VGK	86	77	5	52.5%	50.0%	47.1%	92.0	96.2%
8	NSH	81	76	6	52.7%	70.0%	52.4%	87.9	44.2%

9	LAK	81	76	6	50.1%	60.0%	43.3%	88.1	36.8%
10	SJS	79	75	7	46.2%	45.0%	46.1%	86.7	22.3%
11	STL	78	76	6	50.7%	70.0%	55.9%	84.7	5.7%
12	WPG	78	76	6	50.5%	60.0%	52.6%	83.5	1.2%

Today's Impact

Game		Impact
LIVE WPG vs SEA	WPG playing	WPG win: +2.7% SEA win: -3.6%

Team Strength Metrics

Overall Strength	Home Strength	Away Strength	Pythagorean Win %	Recent Form
50.5%	54.4%	47.9%	46.2%	60.0%

Player Statistics

#	Player	Pos	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	HIT	BLK	TOI
55	Mark Scheifele	C	76	34	60	94	+4	32	42	21:34
81	Kyle Connor	L	76	36	51	87	+3	31	16	21:35
13	Gabriel Vilardi	C	76	28	34	62	-6	19	35	18:51
44	Josh Morrissey	D	71	13	39	52	+12	32	109	24:47
91	Cole Perfetti	C	62	12	19	31	-3	51	30	15:39
9	Alex Iafallo	L	76	12	15	27	+3	117	52	15:28
19	Jonathan Toews	C	76	9	16	25	-15	16	31	14:27
36	Morgan Barron	C	65	11	12	23	+5	132	40	12:48
64	Logan Stanley → BUF	D	59	9	12	21	-2	96	69	17:12
17	Adam Lowry	C	64	5	15	20	-1	139	42	14:55
62	Nino Niederreiter	R	55	8	11	19	-4	66	20	13:54
2	Dylan DeMelo	D	76	3	15	18	+13	106	104	21:29
45	Cole Koepke	L	60	7	8	15	0	170	12	10:13
54	Dylan Samberg	D	60	1	13	14	+7	48	110	21:48
7	Vladislav Namestnikov	C	57	7	6	13	-11	71	36	13:51
70	Tanner Pearson → BUF	L	52	7	6	13	+7	68	26	10:53
14	Gustav Nyquist	R	51	1	11	12	-8	28	19	12:40
4	Neal Pionk	D	48	3	8	11	+3	103	72	22:44
5	Luke Schenn → BUF	D	46	1	6	7	-11	139	54	13:44
57	Elias Salomonsson	D	28	1	4	5	-2	45	21	18:25
93	Brad Lambert	C	15	1	3	4	0	11	2	10:42
27	Isak Rosen ← BUF	R	15	2	0	2	0	8	8	10:22
24	Haydn Fleury	D	33	1	1	2	-15	49	50	13:51
78	Jacob Bryson ← BUF	D	10	0	2	2	-6	2	4	12:02
53	Danil Zhilkin	C	6	0	1	1	+3	5	4	7:35
6	Colin Miller	D	15	0	1	1	-8	25	10	13:45
34	Ville Heinola	D	3	0	0	0	0	5	3	13:14
25	Parker Ford	C	4	0	0	0	0	7	1	9:33
3	Isaak Phillips	D	3	0	0	0	0	3	1	9:31
71	Walker Duehr	R	3	0	0	0	-1	10	2	9:30

Recent Games (Last 10)

Date	Opponent	Score	Result
Apr 04	@ CBJ	1 - 2	W
Apr 02	@ DAL	3 - 0	L
Mar 31	@ CHI	3 - 4	W (OT/SO)
Mar 28	@ COL	2 - 4	W
Mar 26	vs COL	2 - 3	L
Mar 24	vs VGK	4 - 1	W
Mar 22	@ NYR	2 - 3	W (OT/SO)
Mar 21	@ PIT	5 - 4	L (OT/SO)
Mar 19	@ BOS	6 - 1	L
Mar 17	vs NSH	3 - 4	L (OT/SO)

Upcoming Games

Date	Opponent	Location	Opp Strength	Exp Pts	Playoff Swing	Predicted Winner
Apr 09, 20:00	@ St. Louis Blues	Away	50.7%	1.04	2.2%	STL (55%)
Apr 11, 19:00	vs Philadelphia Flyers	Home	56.2%	1.10	1.9%	PHI (52%)
Apr 13, 22:00	@ Vegas Golden Knights	Away	52.5%	1.07	-	VGK (53%)
Apr 14, 21:00	@ Utah Mammoth	Away	57.2%	1.03	-	UTA (56%)
Apr 16, 20:00	vs San Jose Sharks	Home	46.2%	1.25	-	WPG (57%)
Averages (Next 5 games):				5.5 pts	2.1%

Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.