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Utah MammothUTA 1–2 Final Colorado AvalancheCOL

Thursday, October 9, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Utah MammothUTA 010 1 33
Colorado AvalancheCOL 101 2 27

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
10:57 COL Ross Colton (1) Jack Drury (1), Victor Olofsson (1) · snap xG 0.19 0–1 ▶
2nd Period
17:48 UTA Dylan Guenther (1)PP Clayton Keller (1), Nick Schmaltz (1) · slap xG 0.08 1–1 ▶
3rd Period
2:52 COL Nathan MacKinnon (1)PP Cale Makar (3), Martin Necas (1) · wrist xG 0.06 1–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

UTA 54%Deserve to win46% COL
UTACOL
2.47Expected goals2.71
1Goals (no shootout)2
1.87Expected goals, 5 on 51.62
62Shot attempts65
48Unblocked attempts42
33Shots on goal27

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
18:04 UTA Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Vejmelka, down 2–1
With 1:56 left

Shot map

UTA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ COL shoots
Artturi Lehkonen: tip-in, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 0:29) Nick Schmaltz: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:39) Sam Malinski: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:37) Ross Colton: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 1:43) Kevin Stenlund: wrist, 92 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 1:52) Andrew Agozzino: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:32) Mikhail Sergachev: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:56) Nick Schmaltz: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 3:41) Jack McBain: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 3:43) Nathan MacKinnon: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 4:34) Ross Colton: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:33) Brent Burns: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 6:46) Samuel Girard: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:52) Joel Kiviranta: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 6:54) Dylan Guenther: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:29) Jack McBain: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 7:44) Kailer Yamamoto: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 8:59) Nate Schmidt: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 10:26) Sean Durzi: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:39) Devon Toews: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:13) Devon Toews: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:50) Brock Nelson: tip-in, 24 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 13:24) Ross Colton: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 13:29) Dylan Guenther: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 14:32) Nick Schmaltz: poke, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:53) Devon Toews: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:26) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.30 (P1 16:29) Artturi Lehkonen: tip-in, 66 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 16:40) Artturi Lehkonen: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 16:57) Victor Olofsson: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:19) Dylan Guenther: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 19:10) Mikhail Sergachev: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:54) Lawson Crouse: backhand, 42 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 1:37) Ross Colton: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 2:15) Victor Olofsson: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 2:22) Clayton Keller: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 3:45) Mikhail Sergachev: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:02) Lawson Crouse: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 4:41) Logan Cooley: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 4:59) Nick Schmaltz: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 6:08) Martin Necas: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 7:10) Cale Makar: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:04) JJ Peterka: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 9:35) Brandon Tanev: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 9:36) Valeri Nichushkin: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:37) Brock Nelson: slap, 31 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 11:33) Mikhail Sergachev: wrist, 186 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 12:10) Dmitri Simashev: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:13) Joel Kiviranta: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 14:20) Brent Burns: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:26) Dylan Guenther: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 16:35) Kevin Stenlund: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:26) Kevin Stenlund: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 17:41) Dylan Guenther: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 18:40) Valeri Nichushkin: backhand, 25 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:51) Brent Burns: snap, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 18:55) Valeri Nichushkin: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 1:14) Sam Malinski: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:52) Cale Makar: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 2:08) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 2:27) Logan Cooley: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 3:16) Parker Kelly: tip-in, 25 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:38) Clayton Keller: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 5:56) JJ Peterka: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 6:17) Sean Durzi: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 6:40) Nate Schmidt: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:53) Dmitri Simashev: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:48) Dylan Guenther: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 9:13) Logan Cooley: backhand, 26 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 9:21) Nate Schmidt: snap, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:43) Victor Olofsson: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 11:33) Nathan MacKinnon: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 11:54) Cale Makar: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 12:14) Dylan Guenther: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 12:41) Artturi Lehkonen: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 13:07) Jack McBain: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 15:30) Nick Schmaltz: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 15:31) Clayton Keller: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:34) Mikhail Sergachev: snap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 15:59) Cale Makar: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:39) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 16:46) Josh Manson: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:01) Lawson Crouse: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 17:07) Brandon Tanev: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:34) Artturi Lehkonen: wrist, 112 ft, xG 0.45 (P3 18:30) Dylan Guenther: slap, 32 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:35) Dylan Guenther: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 19:48) Ross Colton: GOAL, snap, 23 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 10:57) Dylan Guenther: GOAL, slap, 46 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 17:48) Nathan MacKinnon: GOAL, wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 2:52)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Utah Mammoth

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
9 Clayton Keller 011 0 30.22 0122:17
92 Logan Cooley 000 -1 40.22 1121:49
11 Dylan Guenther 101 -1 120.67 0019:48
8 Nick Schmaltz 011 0 50.21 0019:40
10 JJ Peterka 000 -1 30.15 0017:50
22 Jack McBain 000 0 30.30 3217:01
82 Kevin Stenlund 000 0 30.14 0116:42
67 Lawson Crouse 000 0 50.26 2015:05
56 Kailer Yamamoto 000 0 20.05 0012:28
13 Brandon Tanev 000 0 20.06 5110:09
Defense
98 Mikhail Sergachev 000 0 70.05 0324:21
5 Sean Durzi 000 -1 20.05 1220:53
88 Nate Schmidt 000 -1 40.04 1319:12
6 John Marino 000 0 00.00 0018:00
28 Ian Cole 000 0 30.00 3517:44
3 Olli Maatta 000 0 00.00 0000:32
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Karel Vejmelka 27225 .926 2.26 +0.26

Colorado Avalanche

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
88 Martin Necas 011 0 20.04 0021:20
29 Nathan MacKinnon 101 0 70.72 2021:16
62 Artturi Lehkonen 000 0 50.67 0120:50
11 Brock Nelson 000 0 20.14 0018:51
18 Jack Drury 011 +1 10.00 1015:00
43 Valeri Nichushkin 000 0 30.18 0014:54
92 Gabriel Landeskog 000 0 00.00 3114:23
95 Victor Olofsson 011 +1 40.09 0012:20
17 Parker Kelly 000 0 20.03 6012:19
22 Joel Kiviranta 000 0 40.17 0011:58
79 Ross Colton 101 +1 60.37 2110:23
54 Gavin Brindley 000 0 00.00 2208:32
Defense
7 Devon Toews 000 0 40.05 0123:31
8 Cale Makar 011 0 80.16 1323:03
84 Brent Burns 000 +1 80.03 1121:28
49 Samuel Girard 000 +1 30.01 1018:47
70 Sam Malinski 000 0 50.03 0213:39
42 Josh Manson 000 0 10.02 1113:27
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Scott Wedgewood 33132 .970 2.47 +1.47

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Utah Mammoth

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
9 Clayton Keller R +1.43 +0.70 +0.14 +0.47 +0.15 +0.01 -0.05 — 22:17
8 Nick Schmaltz C +1.38 +0.55 +0.14 +0.77 0.00 -0.02 -0.06 — 19:40
50 Sean Durzi D +0.74 0.00 +0.03 +0.69 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 20:53
11 Dylan Guenther R +0.64 +0.75 +0.44 -0.51 0.00 +0.01 -0.04 — 19:48
22 Jack McBain C +0.58 0.00 +0.20 +0.49 -0.15 -0.06 +0.10 — 17:01
70 Karel Vejmelka G +0.26 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.26 58:10
88 Nate Schmidt D +0.24 0.00 +0.02 +0.25 -0.15 0.00 +0.11 — 19:12
28 Ian Cole D +0.22 0.00 0.00 +0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.21 — 17:44
13 Brandon Tanev L +0.12 0.00 +0.04 +0.23 -0.15 -0.01 +0.01 — 10:09
67 Lawson Crouse L +0.02 0.00 +0.17 -0.10 0.00 +0.01 -0.06 — 15:05
2 Olli Maatta D 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 0:32
98 Mikhail Sergachev D -0.01 0.00 +0.03 -0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.09 — 24:21
82 Kevin Stenlund C -0.03 0.00 +0.09 -0.08 0.00 -0.06 +0.01 — 16:42
26 Dmitri Simashev D -0.07 0.00 +0.02 -0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:25
36 Andrew Agozzino L -0.09 0.00 0.00 -0.12 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 6:55
77 JJ Peterka R -0.13 0.00 +0.10 -0.17 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 17:50
92 Logan Cooley C -0.19 0.00 +0.14 -0.24 0.00 -0.13 +0.03 — 21:49
56 Kailer Yamamoto R -0.22 0.00 +0.03 -0.33 +0.15 -0.01 -0.06 — 12:28
6 John Marino D -0.46 0.00 0.00 -0.44 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:00

Colorado Avalanche

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
20 Ross Colton C +1.68 +0.75 +0.24 +0.45 +0.15 +0.02 +0.07 — 10:23
29 Nathan MacKinnon C +1.52 +0.75 +0.47 +0.24 0.00 +0.12 -0.06 — 21:16
41 Scott Wedgewood G +1.47 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.47 59:55
8 Cale Makar D +1.12 +0.70 +0.10 +0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.11 — 23:03
18 Jack Drury C +1.07 +0.70 0.00 +0.28 0.00 +0.09 0.00 — 15:00
95 Victor Olofsson L +1.02 +0.55 +0.06 +0.43 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:20
62 Artturi Lehkonen L +0.74 0.00 +0.43 +0.25 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 20:50
88 Martin Necas C +0.68 +0.55 +0.03 +0.19 0.00 0.00 -0.08 — 21:20
84 Brent Burns D +0.27 0.00 +0.02 +0.24 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 21:28
7 Devon Toews D +0.15 0.00 +0.04 +0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 23:31
49 Samuel Girard D +0.10 0.00 +0.01 +0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:47
94 Joel Kiviranta L -0.06 0.00 +0.11 -0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:58
54 Gavin Brindley C -0.10 0.00 0.00 -0.21 0.00 +0.01 +0.10 — 8:32
70 Sam Malinski D -0.28 0.00 +0.02 -0.40 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 13:39
17 Parker Kelly C -0.30 0.00 +0.02 -0.18 -0.15 +0.01 0.00 — 12:19
13 Valeri Nichushkin R -0.39 0.00 +0.12 -0.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:54
11 Brock Nelson C -0.42 0.00 +0.09 -0.51 0.00 +0.04 -0.04 — 18:51
92 Gabriel Landeskog L -0.51 0.00 0.00 -0.64 +0.15 -0.01 -0.01 — 14:23
42 Josh Manson D -0.61 0.00 +0.01 -0.50 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 13:27

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.