Colorado Avalanche
Central Division, Western Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 37 | 9 | 9 | 83 | 212 | 138 | +74 | 75.5% |
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Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Feb 20, 2026
Analysis
Summary
The Colorado Avalanche are not just a playoff lock at 100.0% probability, they are firmly in control of the Western Conference race with legitimate Stanley Cup aspirations. With a projected 115.9 points and an 84.1% chance to win the division, the focus has shifted from qualifying to seeding and postseason readiness.
Record and Recent Performance
Colorado sits at 37-9-9 through 55 games for 83 points and an elite 75.5% points percentage, backed by a dominant +74 goal differential from 212 goals for and just 138 against. Their overall team strength rating of 66.8% is best in the conference, driven by a crushing 72.7% home strength and a solid 56.4% on the road. Recent form at 45.0% suggests they have cooled slightly compared to their peak, but even a modest stretch is more than enough given their established cushion.
The Competition
The Avalanche’s closest division challengers are the Minnesota Wild at 78 points and the Dallas Stars at 77 points, but both have played more games and project to finish around 107 points, leaving a sizeable gap. Further down, Vegas, Utah, and Anaheim are fighting just to secure playoff spots and lack the consistency or strength to threaten Colorado at the top. Realistically, the only danger for the Avalanche is complacency; losing the division would require an extended slump combined with near-perfect runs from both Minnesota and Dallas.
Remaining Schedule
Colorado has 27 games remaining, split almost evenly with 13 at home and 14 on the road, and a balanced schedule with average difficulty. Their remaining opponents average a 51.5% strength rating, slightly below league average, setting them up well to continue banking points. The model expects 32.9 more points, which would push them comfortably past the projected playoff cutoff of 90.6 and into the high teens in wins among remaining games.
Outlook
With playoff qualification long secured and a commanding lead in the standings, the Avalanche are now playing for home-ice advantage and optimal playoff matchups. If they maintain even league-average form the rest of the way, Colorado should enter the postseason as the Central Division champion and one of the West’s clear favorites to make a deep Stanley Cup run.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has already reached that threshold. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 100.0% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 113–119 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 89–92 points. Finishes above the cutline in 100.0% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Western Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 83 | 55 | 27 | 66.8% | 45.0% | 51.5% | 115.9 | 100.0% | |
| 2 | 78 | 58 | 24 | 65.9% | 85.0% | 53.1% | 107.3 | 100.0% | |
| 3 | 77 | 57 | 25 | 63.9% | 70.0% | 53.2% | 107.6 | 100.0% | |
| 4 | 68 | 57 | 25 | 52.5% | 40.0% | 53.2% | 96.3 | 91.1% | |
| 5 | 64 | 57 | 25 | 59.6% | 70.0% | 52.3% | 94.4 | 86.1% | |
| 6 | 64 | 58 | 24 | 52.1% | 50.0% | 53.3% | 90.6 | 58.5% | |
| 7 | 63 | 56 | 26 | 53.4% | 60.0% | 52.7% | 92.9 | 76.5% | |
| 8 | 63 | 56 | 26 | 56.6% | 80.0% | 49.1% | 94.9 | 86.2% | |
| 9 | 60 | 56 | 26 | 49.6% | 55.0% | 49.4% | 89.5 | 43.6% | |
| 10 | 59 | 57 | 25 | 45.6% | 45.0% | 53.0% | 85.7 | 19.3% | |
| 11 | 58 | 55 | 27 | 46.8% | 45.0% | 49.3% | 88.1 | 33.9% | |
| 12 | 53 | 57 | 25 | 42.4% | 40.0% | 52.9% | 78.7 | 1.0% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66.8% | 72.7% | 56.4% | 70.2% | 45.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Nathan MacKinnon | C | 55 | 40 | 53 | 93 | +48 | 0 | 45 | 29 | 22:11 | |
| 88 | Martin Necas | C | 52 | 22 | 40 | 62 | +35 | 0 | 57 | 19 | 20:58 | |
| 8 | Cale Makar | D | 55 | 15 | 42 | 57 | +28 | 0 | 28 | 90 | 25:05 | |
| 11 | Brock Nelson | C | 55 | 29 | 20 | 49 | +7 | 0 | 28 | 42 | 19:14 | |
| 62 | Artturi Lehkonen | L | 55 | 19 | 23 | 42 | +34 | 0 | 41 | 27 | 19:09 | |
| 13 | Valeri Nichushkin | R | 46 | 12 | 22 | 34 | +7 | 0 | 41 | 17 | 18:04 | |
| 84 | Brent Burns | D | 55 | 9 | 17 | 26 | +28 | 0 | 12 | 62 | 19:30 | |
| 70 | Sam Malinski | D | 55 | 3 | 22 | 25 | +30 | 0 | 25 | 63 | 16:53 | |
| 95 | Victor Olofsson | L | 55 | 10 | 14 | 24 | +2 | 0 | 11 | 13 | 13:32 | |
| 42 | Josh Manson | D | 55 | 5 | 19 | 24 | +37 | 0 | 129 | 76 | 18:09 | |
| 20 | Ross Colton | C | 52 | 7 | 15 | 22 | +14 | 0 | 109 | 21 | 13:00 | |
| 92 | Gabriel Landeskog | L | 41 | 7 | 15 | 22 | +18 | 0 | 60 | 18 | 15:50 | |
| 17 | Parker Kelly | C | 55 | 12 | 9 | 21 | +9 | 0 | 121 | 37 | 12:29 | |
| 18 | Jack Drury | C | 55 | 8 | 11 | 19 | +11 | 0 | 24 | 45 | 14:50 | |
| 7 | Devon Toews | D | 42 | 1 | 12 | 13 | +27 | 0 | 16 | 59 | 22:22 | |
| 49 | Samuel Girard | D | 40 | 3 | 9 | 12 | +12 | 0 | 15 | 38 | 17:41 | |
| 54 | Gavin Brindley | C | 42 | 5 | 6 | 11 | +6 | 0 | 29 | 13 | 10:09 | |
| 93 | Zakhar Bardakov | C | 42 | 1 | 8 | 9 | +7 | 0 | 39 | 17 | 7:08 | |
| 94 | Joel Kiviranta | L | 28 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 10 | 10:00 | |
| 7 | Ilya Solovyov | D | 16 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 20 | 19 | 11:33 | |
| 15 | Jack Ahcan | D | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11:37 | |
| 0 | Alex Barré-Boulet | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3:46 | |
| 67 | Keaton Middleton | D | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 10:23 | |
| 82 | Ivan Ivan | C | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7:18 | |
| 16 | Taylor Makar | L | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 6:12 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 04 | vs SJS | 4 - 2 | W |
| Feb 02 | vs DET | 0 - 2 | L |
| Jan 31 | @ DET | 0 - 5 | W |
| Jan 29 | @ MTL | 7 - 3 | L |
| Jan 28 | @ OTT | 5 - 2 | L |
| Jan 25 | @ TOR | 1 - 4 | W |
| Jan 23 | vs PHI | 3 - 7 | L |
| Jan 21 | vs ANA | 1 - 2 | L (OT/SO) |
| Jan 19 | vs WSH | 5 - 2 | W |
| Jan 16 | vs NSH | 3 - 7 | L |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 21:00 | @ Utah Mammoth | Away | 59.6% | 1.01 | UTA (56%) |
| Feb 26, 21:00 | vs Minnesota Wild | Home | 65.9% | 1.17 | COL (52%) |
| Feb 28, 18:00 | vs Chicago Blackhawks | Home | 42.4% | 1.36 | COL (63%) |
| Mar 02, 22:30 | @ Los Angeles Kings | Away | 49.6% | 1.24 | COL (57%) |
| Mar 03, 22:00 | @ Anaheim Ducks | Away | 56.6% | 1.05 | ANA (55%) |
| Mar 06, 20:00 | @ Dallas Stars | Away | 63.9% | 1.06 | DAL (53%) |
| Mar 08, 14:00 | vs Minnesota Wild | Home | 65.9% | 1.17 | COL (52%) |
| Mar 10, 22:00 | vs Edmonton Oilers | Home | 52.1% | 1.31 | COL (61%) |
| Mar 12, 22:00 | @ Seattle Kraken | Away | 53.4% | 1.12 | SEA (50%) |
| Mar 14, 16:00 | @ Winnipeg Jets | Away | 45.7% | 1.17 | COL (53%) |
| Total Expected (Next 10 games): | 11.7 pts | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.