Utah Mammoth
Central Division, Western Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 30 | 23 | 4 | 64 | 183 | 157 | +26 | 56.1% |
|
Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Feb 20, 2026
Analysis
Summary
The Utah Mammoth are in a strong playoff position with an 86.2% chance of qualifying and a projected finish comfortably above the cutline. While a division title is off the table, Utah looks well positioned to secure a wild card or lower seed with outside upside if things break right.
Record and Recent Performance
Utah sits at 30-23-4 through 57 games, good for 64 points and a 56.1% points percentage, supported by a solid +26 goal differential with 183 goals for and 157 against. Their underlying team strength rates at an impressive 59.6%, driven heavily by dominant home play at 73.3%, while road performance has been closer to average at 49.6%. Recent form is encouraging, with a 70.0% trend indicating they’ve been banking points at a pace well above their season average.
The Competition
The Mammoth currently occupy fifth in the conference race, tied on points with Edmonton but holding a stronger projection at 94.4 points versus the Oilers’ 90.6. Vegas sits ahead with 68 points and a 96.3-point projection, making them difficult to catch, while Anaheim looms as the cutline team at a projected 94.9 points with identical playoff odds. Seattle remains a real threat just behind Utah, while Los Angeles, Nashville, and San Jose would need significant surges to re-enter the picture realistically.
Remaining Schedule
Utah has 25 games remaining, with a favorable 14 at home and 11 on the road, reinforcing their biggest strength. The opponent strength averages 52.3%, slightly below league average, and the overall schedule difficulty is rated as average. With an expected 30.4 points still to be gained, the Mammoth are projected to reach 94.4 points, nearly four points clear of the projected playoff cutoff of 90.6.
Outlook
If Utah continues anything close to its recent form and takes advantage of its home-heavy schedule, it should secure a playoff spot without needing help. The margin for error isn’t massive given how crowded the middle of the conference is, but the numbers suggest the Mammoth control their own fate and are on track for postseason hockey.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has already reached that threshold. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 86.1% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 91–97 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 89–92 points. Finishes above the cutline in 86.5% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Western Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 68 | 57 | 25 | 52.5% | 40.0% | 53.2% | 96.3 | 91.1% | |
| 5 | 64 | 57 | 25 | 59.6% | 70.0% | 52.3% | 94.4 | 86.1% | |
| 6 | 64 | 58 | 24 | 52.1% | 50.0% | 53.3% | 90.6 | 58.5% | |
| 7 | 63 | 56 | 26 | 53.4% | 60.0% | 52.7% | 92.9 | 76.5% | |
| 8 | 63 | 56 | 26 | 56.6% | 80.0% | 49.1% | 94.9 | 86.2% | |
| 9 | 60 | 56 | 26 | 49.6% | 55.0% | 49.4% | 89.5 | 43.6% | |
| 10 | 59 | 57 | 25 | 45.6% | 45.0% | 53.0% | 85.7 | 19.3% | |
| 11 | 58 | 55 | 27 | 46.8% | 45.0% | 49.3% | 88.1 | 33.9% | |
| 12 | 53 | 57 | 25 | 42.4% | 40.0% | 52.9% | 78.7 | 1.0% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59.6% | 73.3% | 49.6% | 57.6% | 70.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Clayton Keller | R | 57 | 17 | 37 | 54 | +22 | 0 | 8 | 22 | 19:01 | |
| 8 | Nick Schmaltz | C | 57 | 23 | 30 | 53 | +21 | 0 | 16 | 35 | 19:44 | |
| 11 | Dylan Guenther | R | 55 | 24 | 23 | 47 | +8 | 0 | 43 | 19 | 17:11 | |
| 77 | JJ Peterka | R | 57 | 20 | 18 | 38 | +11 | 0 | 13 | 16 | 16:32 | |
| 98 | Mikhail Sergachev | D | 57 | 9 | 28 | 37 | +1 | 0 | 25 | 96 | 24:23 | |
| 67 | Lawson Crouse | L | 56 | 14 | 15 | 29 | +20 | 0 | 147 | 39 | 16:32 | |
| 6 | John Marino | D | 57 | 4 | 24 | 28 | +37 | 0 | 19 | 51 | 20:25 | |
| 92 | Logan Cooley | C | 29 | 14 | 9 | 23 | +6 | 0 | 34 | 13 | 17:49 | |
| 27 | Barrett Hayton | C | 52 | 8 | 14 | 22 | +9 | 0 | 22 | 24 | 15:20 | |
| 53 | Michael Carcone | L | 55 | 11 | 10 | 21 | +6 | 0 | 92 | 14 | 12:31 | |
| 22 | Jack McBain | C | 57 | 6 | 13 | 19 | +7 | 0 | 196 | 37 | 14:06 | |
| 50 | Sean Durzi | D | 36 | 5 | 14 | 19 | -6 | 0 | 19 | 63 | 20:14 | |
| 88 | Nate Schmidt | D | 57 | 4 | 14 | 18 | +28 | 0 | 58 | 65 | 20:04 | |
| 56 | Kailer Yamamoto | R | 35 | 9 | 8 | 17 | +12 | 0 | 21 | 10 | 11:37 | |
| 28 | Ian Cole | D | 57 | 2 | 14 | 16 | +19 | 0 | 55 | 115 | 18:21 | |
| 82 | Kevin Stenlund | C | 56 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 0 | 28 | 44 | 14:43 | |
| 19 | Daniil But | L | 28 | 3 | 3 | 6 | +2 | 0 | 16 | 18 | 12:35 | |
| 57 | Nick DeSimone | D | 32 | 2 | 3 | 5 | +4 | 0 | 16 | 19 | 14:10 | |
| 38 | Liam O'Brien | C | 32 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 0 | 93 | 11 | 9:00 | |
| 13 | Brandon Tanev | L | 44 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -13 | 0 | 120 | 26 | 9:24 | |
| 15 | Alexander Kerfoot | C | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10:20 | |
| 2 | Olli Määttä | D | 19 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 11:54 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 04 | vs DET | 4 - 1 | W |
| Feb 02 | vs VAN | 6 - 2 | W |
| Jan 31 | vs DAL | 2 - 3 | L |
| Jan 29 | @ CAR | 5 - 4 | L |
| Jan 27 | @ FLA | 3 - 4 | W |
| Jan 26 | @ TBL | 2 - 0 | L |
| Jan 24 | @ NSH | 2 - 5 | W |
| Jan 21 | vs PHI | 5 - 4 | W (OT/SO) |
| Jan 17 | vs SEA | 6 - 3 | W |
| Jan 15 | vs DAL | 2 - 1 | W |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 21:00 | vs Colorado Avalanche | Home | 66.8% | 1.24 | UTA (56%) |
| Feb 27, 21:00 | vs Minnesota Wild | Home | 65.9% | 1.17 | UTA (53%) |
| Mar 01, 16:00 | vs Chicago Blackhawks | Home | 42.4% | 1.36 | UTA (64%) |
| Mar 03, 19:00 | @ Washington Capitals | Away | 54.2% | 1.04 | WSH (55%) |
| Mar 05, 19:00 | @ Philadelphia Flyers | Away | 48.5% | 1.12 | PHI (50%) |
| Mar 07, 19:00 | @ Columbus Blue Jackets | Away | 60.7% | 1.00 | CBJ (57%) |
| Mar 09, 20:30 | @ Chicago Blackhawks | Away | 42.4% | 1.22 | UTA (55%) |
| Mar 10, 20:00 | @ Minnesota Wild | Away | 65.9% | 0.99 | MIN (57%) |
| Mar 12, 21:00 | vs Chicago Blackhawks | Home | 42.4% | 1.36 | UTA (64%) |
| Mar 14, 21:00 | vs Pittsburgh Penguins | Home | 62.9% | 1.16 | UTA (52%) |
| Total Expected (Next 10 games): | 11.7 pts | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.