Utah Mammoth CLINCHED
Central Division, Western Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82 | 43 | 33 | 6 | 92 | 268 | 240 | +28 | 56.1% |
|
Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Jun 15, 2026
Likely First-Round Opponents
| Opponent | Probability | Likelihood |
|---|---|---|
Vegas Golden Knights
|
100.0% |
Analysis
Summary
The Utah Mammoth have officially locked up a playoff berth, sitting at 90 points with a 100.0% playoff probability and a projected finish of 94.8 points. While a division title is out of reach at 0.0%, their 15.6% chance to win the conference and 7.8% Stanley Cup odds show they’re viewed as a legitimate, if not elite, contender heading into the postseason.
Record and Recent Performance
At 42-30-6 through 78 games, Utah’s 90 points translate to a 57.7% points percentage, solidly in playoff-caliber territory. Their +34 goal differential (258 GF, 224 GA) supports that record and suggests they’ve earned their spot rather than backed into it. The underlying team strength rating of 59.8% — including a strong 63.5% at home — reinforces that they’re comfortably above average, and a 70.0% recent form mark indicates they’re trending upward at exactly the right time.
The Competition
Utah sits fourth in the conference race, tied with Edmonton at 90 points but with a game in hand, and just ahead of Vegas and Anaheim at 89. The Oilers project slightly lower at 93.6 points, while the Golden Knights and Ducks are clustered in the 92–93 range, meaning home-ice positioning in the first round is very much in play. Behind them, Los Angeles sits at 85 points with a projected 89.9, right on the cutoff, but with Utah already locked in, the focus is more on seeding than survival. Realistically, the Mammoth can still finish anywhere from fourth to sixth, but they’ve created a small cushion over the teams chasing from below.
Remaining Schedule
Utah has four games left, three at home and one on the road, with an average schedule difficulty and opponents carrying a combined 53.5% strength rating, slightly above league average. That home-heavy finish plays to their 63.5% home strength and supports the projection of 4.8 more points, which would land them around 95 points. Given the projected playoff cutoff of 89.9 points, they’ve already cleared the bar, so these final games are about sharpening form and potentially securing better seeding rather than fighting for entry.
Outlook
With strong recent play, a positive goal differential, and favorable home-ice splits, the Mammoth enter the playoffs in a stable and somewhat dangerous position. They’re not among the very top-tier favorites, but a 15.6% conference title chance and nearly 8% Cup odds show they’re firmly in the contender mix. If they maintain their current form and capitalize on home ice in the first round, Utah has a realistic path to make noise this spring.
Bandwagon Case
Why you should jump on the bandwagon:
Utah is easy to get behind because they’re both competitive now and still clearly building toward something bigger. Clayton Keller remains the engine — a dynamic winger who drives play and can take over stretches with his puck skill — and Logan Cooley gives them legit game-breaking speed down the middle. Dylan Guenther’s finishing ability adds another layer, and the addition of Mikhail Sergachev on the back end has given them a true minute-munching defenseman who can move the puck and steady things late in games. In net, Connor Ingram has been calm and reliable, which matters for a team that doesn’t always play low-event hockey.
There’s also something compelling about the timing. This is a relocated franchise carving out an identity in a new market, and they’re doing it with a young core that feels like it’s arriving ahead of schedule. They’re not leaning on fading stars — they’re growing into contention, and that makes every playoff game feel like part of a longer story.
On the ice, Utah plays with pace. They’re comfortable trading chances because their skill can tilt the ice quickly, but the +24 goal differential shows they’re not just run-and-gun. When they’re on, the transition game is sharp, the power play can hum, and their top six can overwhelm teams in waves. If you’re looking for a team that’s good now, still ascending, and genuinely fun to watch, this is a pretty easy wagon to hop on.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has mathematically clinched a playoff spot. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 100.0% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 92–92 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 90–90 points. Finishes above the cutline in 100.0% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Western Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 95 | 82 | 0 | 60.8% | 85.0% | 50.0% | 95.0 | 100.0% | |
| 5 | 93 | 82 | 0 | 57.2% | 70.0% | 50.0% | 93.0 | 100.0% | |
| 6 | 92 | 82 | 0 | 56.6% | 60.0% | 50.0% | 92.0 | 100.0% | |
| 7 | 92 | 82 | 0 | 46.5% | 30.0% | 50.0% | 92.0 | 100.0% | |
| 8 | 90 | 82 | 0 | 53.1% | 70.0% | 50.0% | 90.0 | 100.0% | |
| 9 | 86 | 82 | 0 | 51.0% | 65.0% | 50.0% | 86.0 | 0.0% | |
| 10 | 86 | 82 | 0 | 47.6% | 45.0% | 50.0% | 86.0 | 0.0% | |
| 11 | 86 | 82 | 0 | 48.0% | 55.0% | 50.0% | 86.0 | 0.0% | |
| 12 | 82 | 82 | 0 | 47.1% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 82.0 | 0.0% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56.6% | 59.8% | 55.3% | 55.5% | 60.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Clayton Keller | R | 82 | 26 | 62 | 88 | +21 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 19:05 | |
| 11 | Dylan Guenther | R | 79 | 39 | 34 | 73 | +7 | 0 | 66 | 28 | 17:23 | |
| 8 | Nick Schmaltz | C | 82 | 33 | 40 | 73 | +17 | 0 | 23 | 52 | 19:43 | |
| 98 | Mikhail Sergachev | D | 78 | 10 | 48 | 58 | +2 | 0 | 38 | 125 | 24:17 | |
| 77 | JJ Peterka | R | 82 | 25 | 22 | 47 | +6 | 0 | 16 | 19 | 15:59 | |
| 67 | Lawson Crouse | L | 81 | 24 | 20 | 44 | +20 | 0 | 212 | 52 | 16:35 | |
| 92 | Logan Cooley | C | 54 | 24 | 19 | 43 | +3 | 0 | 54 | 27 | 17:19 | |
| 6 | John Marino | D | 80 | 4 | 32 | 36 | +42 | 0 | 28 | 67 | 20:12 | |
| 53 | Michael Carcone | L | 79 | 16 | 15 | 31 | +4 | 0 | 147 | 16 | 12:43 | |
| 50 | Sean Durzi | D | 60 | 5 | 22 | 27 | -12 | 0 | 39 | 87 | 19:15 | |
| 27 | Barrett Hayton | C | 67 | 11 | 15 | 26 | +3 | 0 | 34 | 29 | 15:07 | |
| 22 | Jack McBain | C | 75 | 9 | 16 | 25 | +11 | 0 | 271 | 43 | 13:50 | |
| 56 | Kailer Yamamoto | R | 59 | 13 | 10 | 23 | +11 | 0 | 47 | 19 | 11:47 | |
| 28 | Ian Cole | D | 82 | 3 | 20 | 23 | +16 | 0 | 73 | 151 | 18:16 | |
| 88 | Nate Schmidt | D | 82 | 5 | 17 | 22 | +31 | 0 | 78 | 95 | 19:41 | |
| 82 | Kevin Stenlund | C | 80 | 4 | 14 | 18 | -9 | 0 | 43 | 61 | 14:28 | |
| 15 | Alexander Kerfoot | C | 34 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 27 | 12:47 | |
| 57 | Nick DeSimone | D | 40 | 2 | 6 | 8 | +4 | 0 | 19 | 31 | 14:12 | |
| 52 | MacKenzie Weegar ← CGY | D | 19 | 1 | 6 | 7 | +2 | 0 | 38 | 32 | 20:24 | |
| 19 | Daniil But | L | 29 | 3 | 3 | 6 | +1 | 0 | 16 | 18 | 12:28 | |
| 38 | Liam O'Brien | C | 38 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 0 | 115 | 14 | 9:08 | |
| 13 | Brandon Tanev | L | 56 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -15 | 0 | 155 | 34 | 9:21 | |
| 3 | Olli Maatta → CGY | D | 22 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 12:10 | |
| 26 | Dmitri Simashev | D | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 12:55 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Location | Score | Result | Opp Strength | Playoff Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 01 | Vegas Golden Knights | Home | 1 - 5 | L | 60.8% | - |
| Apr 29 | Vegas Golden Knights | Away | 5 - 4 (OT) | OTL | 60.8% | - |
| Apr 27 | Vegas Golden Knights | Home | 4 - 5 (OT) | OTL | 60.8% | - |
| Apr 24 | Vegas Golden Knights | Home | 4 - 2 | W | 60.8% | - |
| Apr 21 | Vegas Golden Knights | Away | 2 - 3 | W | 60.8% | - |
| Apr 19 | Vegas Golden Knights | Away | 4 - 2 | L | 60.8% | - |
| Apr 16 | St. Louis Blues | Home | 3 - 5 | L | 51.0% | 0.0% |
| Apr 14 | Winnipeg Jets | Home | 5 - 3 | W | 47.1% | 0.0% |
| Apr 12 | Calgary Flames | Away | 4 - 1 | L | 43.1% | 0.0% |
| Apr 11 | Carolina Hurricanes | Home | 1 - 4 | L | 65.8% | 0.0% |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Playoff Swing | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 03, 12:00 | @ Vegas Golden Knights | Away | 60.8% | 1.07 | - | VGK (53%) |
| Averages (Next 1 games): | 1.1 pts | — | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.