hockeystats.io

St. Louis BluesSTL 4–2 Final Calgary FlamesCGY

Saturday, October 11, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
St. Louis BluesSTL 022 4 28
Calgary FlamesCGY 110 2 29

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
14:49 CGY Matt Coronato (1)PP Joel Farabee (2), Nazem Kadri (2) · wrist xG 0.06 0–1 ▶
2nd Period
12:41 STL Jake Neighbours (1) Robert Thomas (1), Pavel Buchnevich (1) · backhand xG 0.14 1–1 ▶
14:25 STL Robert Thomas (1)PP Jimmy Snuggerud (1), Justin Faulk (1) · wrist xG 0.09 2–1 ▶
14:57 CGY Matt Coronato (2) Kevin Bahl (1) · wrist xG 0.05 2–2 ▶
3rd Period
11:07 STL Jake Neighbours (2) Colton Parayko (1), Cam Fowler (1) · tip-in xG 0.09 3–2 ▶
13:33 STL Pius Suter (1) Tyler Tucker (1), Nathan Walker (1) · tip-in xG 0.10 4–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

STL 36%Deserve to win64% CGY
STLCGY
2.56Expected goals3.39
4Goals (no shootout)2
1.79Expected goals, 5 on 52.00
57Shot attempts66
35Unblocked attempts49
28Shots on goal29

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
2:05 CGY Deserve to win Deserve to win · CGY takes the lead, 60–40%
STL had led since 5:55 of the 1st, by as much as 64%
6:10 CGY xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced STL 2.03–0.04
In xG over 10 minutes, 2:00 to 12:00 of the 2nd; neither team scored
3rd Period
13:40 STL xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced CGY 1.25–0.20
In xG over 10 minutes, 3:50 to 13:50 of the 3rd; goals 2–0
16:00 STL No shift No shift · Texier, 11:38 on the bench
No shift after 1:35 of the 3rd; 9 shifts (6:42) before that
17:00 STL No shift No shift · Snuggerud, 10:31 on the bench
No shift after 6:58 of the 3rd; 14 shifts (10:30) before that
17:11 CGY Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Wolf, down 4–2
With 2:49 left

Shot map

STL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ CGY shoots
Connor Zary: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 2:02) Connor Zary: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 2:08) Adam Klapka: tip-in, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 4:07) Samuel Honzek: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 4:44) Pavel Buchnevich: slap, 11 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 5:11) Jimmy Snuggerud: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 5:27) Pavel Buchnevich: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 5:55) Justin Faulk: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 6:39) Matt Coronato: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 7:13) Blake Coleman: wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 7:15) Rasmus Andersson: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 8:07) Pius Suter: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 8:47) Mathieu Joseph: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 10:03) Colton Parayko: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:18) Nazem Kadri: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 13:17) Brayden Pachal: backhand, 26 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:35) MacKenzie Weegar: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 14:06) Pius Suter: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:29) Nazem Kadri: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 17:34) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:19) Rasmus Andersson: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 18:37) Dylan Holloway: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 1:08) Matt Coronato: wrist, 74 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 1:56) Joel Farabee: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 2:03) Yegor Sharangovich: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 2:05) MacKenzie Weegar: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:09) Morgan Frost: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 2:14) Samuel Honzek: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 3:48) Dylan Holloway: wrist, 172 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 4:45) Philip Broberg: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:05) Yegor Sharangovich: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.29 (P2 5:36) Joel Farabee: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 6:01) Matt Coronato: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 6:19) Rasmus Andersson: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 6:36) Zayne Parekh: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 6:50) Rasmus Andersson: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 7:02) Nathan Walker: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:13) Adam Klapka: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 7:29) Blake Coleman: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 8:14) Samuel Honzek: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 8:16) Blake Coleman: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 8:49) Morgan Frost: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:20) Philip Broberg: slap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:36) Joel Farabee: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 11:54) Logan Mailloux: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 12:09) Cam Fowler: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:22) Dylan Holloway: poke, 6 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:23) Jordan Kyrou: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 14:40) Zayne Parekh: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:44) Jimmy Snuggerud: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:51) Jimmy Snuggerud: backhand, 21 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:52) Connor Zary: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 16:39) Rasmus Andersson: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:48) MacKenzie Weegar: snap, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:53) Joel Hanley: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 17:58) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 0:32) Zayne Parekh: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:27) Samuel Honzek: tip-in, 75 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 3:43) Justin Faulk: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 5:09) Cam Fowler: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 6:09) Jake Neighbours: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 6:10) Nathan Walker: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 7:32) Mathieu Joseph: bat, 6 ft, xG 0.29 (P3 7:34) Adam Klapka: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:50) Joel Hanley: snap, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:41) Matt Coronato: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 8:45) Matvei Gridin: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 9:00) Dylan Holloway: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 10:37) Jordan Kyrou: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 11:01) Pavel Buchnevich: tip-in, 75 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 11:15) Matvei Gridin: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 12:25) Pius Suter: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 13:06) Mathieu Joseph: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 13:28) Zayne Parekh: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 14:21) Pius Suter: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 15:30) Yegor Sharangovich: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 15:51) Colton Parayko: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:01) Matvei Gridin: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 19:09) Matt Coronato: GOAL, wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 14:49) Jake Neighbours: GOAL, backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 12:41) Robert Thomas: GOAL, wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 14:25) Matt Coronato: GOAL, wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 14:57) Jake Neighbours: GOAL, tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 11:07) Pius Suter: GOAL, tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 13:33)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

St. Louis Blues

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
18 Robert Thomas 112 +2 20.09 0221:00
81 Dylan Holloway 000 -1 90.28 4020:45
89 Pavel Buchnevich 011 +2 30.33 1020:00
22 Pius Suter 101 +1 80.37 3218:44
10 Brayden Schenn 000 -1 00.00 3017:52
25 Jordan Kyrou 000 -1 60.28 0116:57
63 Jake Neighbours 202 +2 30.28 6014:44
26 Nathan Walker 011 +1 20.06 0212:52
21 Jimmy Snuggerud 011 0 40.15 0010:30
21 Mathieu Joseph 000 +1 30.50 3109:59
85 Alexandre Texier 000 0 00.00 1006:42
72 Nick Bjugstad 000 0 00.00 1005:29
Defense
72 Justin Faulk 011 +1 40.11 3325:02
17 Cam Fowler 011 +2 40.06 1124:58
55 Colton Parayko 011 +1 30.02 1523:58
6 Philip Broberg 000 +1 40.03 0023:03
75 Tyler Tucker 011 0 10.00 1008:19
23 Logan Mailloux 000 -1 10.00 1008:18
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joel Hofer 29227 .931 3.39 +1.39

Calgary Flames

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
86 Joel Farabee 011 -1 30.43 0321:27
91 Nazem Kadri 011 +1 40.17 0021:16
27 Matt Coronato 202 +1 80.26 0118:27
16 Morgan Frost 000 -1 40.21 0118:21
17 Yegor Sharangovich 000 -1 40.51 0116:08
20 Blake Coleman 000 -2 50.17 1015:43
11 Mikael Backlund 000 -2 10.00 0014:39
29 Samuel Honzek 000 -2 40.34 3013:02
43 Adam Klapka 000 0 30.20 3112:22
47 Connor Zary 000 0 40.07 1010:24
94 Ryan Lomberg 000 0 00.00 2106:02
Defense
52 MacKenzie Weegar 000 -3 50.08 4225:25
4 Rasmus Andersson 000 +1 70.46 0223:51
7 Kevin Bahl 011 +1 10.00 1120:07
44 Joel Hanley 000 -3 30.01 1617:48
19 Zayne Parekh 000 0 50.25 0117:21
94 Brayden Pachal 000 0 10.01 5010:23
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Dustin Wolf 28424 .857 2.56 -1.44

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

St. Louis Blues

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
22 Pius Suter C +1.54 +0.75 +0.24 +0.58 -0.15 +0.01 +0.10 — 18:44
26 Nathan Walker L +1.50 +0.55 +0.04 +0.82 0.00 +0.01 +0.08 — 12:52
18 Robert Thomas C +1.46 +1.45 +0.06 -0.10 0.00 +0.02 +0.04 — 21:00
63 Jake Neighbours L +1.44 +1.50 +0.18 -0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:44
30 Joel Hofer G +1.39 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.39 59:58
71 Mathieu Joseph R +1.22 0.00 +0.32 +0.83 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 9:59
17 Cam Fowler D +1.17 +0.55 +0.04 +0.38 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 24:58
55 Colton Parayko D +1.01 +0.70 +0.01 +0.20 -0.15 0.00 +0.25 — 23:58
72 Justin Faulk D +0.95 +0.55 +0.07 +0.16 0.00 0.00 +0.17 — 25:02
89 Pavel Buchnevich L +0.78 +0.55 +0.21 +0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 20:00
75 Tyler Tucker D +0.71 +0.70 0.00 +0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 8:19
21 Jimmy Snuggerud R +0.34 +0.70 +0.10 -0.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:30
25 Jordan Kyrou R +0.30 0.00 +0.18 +0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.09 — 16:57
81 Dylan Holloway L +0.09 0.00 +0.18 -0.07 0.00 +0.01 -0.04 — 20:45
6 Philip Broberg D -0.01 0.00 +0.02 +0.16 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 23:03
10 Brayden Schenn C -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.22 +0.15 +0.08 -0.02 — 17:52
77 Nick Bjugstad C -0.47 0.00 0.00 -0.30 -0.15 -0.02 0.00 — 5:29
9 Alexandre Texier L -0.68 0.00 0.00 -0.68 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 6:42
23 Logan Mailloux D -0.73 0.00 0.00 -0.73 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 8:18

Calgary Flames

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
27 Matt Coronato R +2.17 +1.50 +0.17 +0.50 0.00 -0.03 +0.03 — 18:27
91 Nazem Kadri C +1.13 +0.55 +0.11 +0.65 -0.15 -0.03 0.00 — 21:16
86 Joel Farabee L +0.79 +0.70 +0.28 -0.30 0.00 -0.01 +0.11 — 21:27
92 Matvei Gridin R +0.76 0.00 +0.14 +0.57 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 13:38
44 Joel Hanley D +0.68 0.00 +0.01 +0.37 0.00 0.00 +0.30 — 17:48
7 Kevin Bahl D +0.51 +0.70 0.00 -0.24 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 20:07
52 MacKenzie Weegar D +0.44 0.00 +0.05 +0.29 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 25:25
20 Blake Coleman L +0.35 0.00 +0.11 +0.22 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 15:43
17 Yegor Sharangovich C +0.24 0.00 +0.33 -0.44 +0.30 0.00 +0.05 — 16:08
29 Samuel Honzek L +0.23 0.00 +0.22 -0.12 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 13:02
4 Rasmus Andersson D +0.13 0.00 +0.30 -0.23 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 23:51
94 Brayden Pachal D +0.07 0.00 +0.01 -0.12 +0.15 0.00 +0.04 — 10:23
19 Zayne Parekh D -0.04 0.00 +0.16 -0.22 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 17:21
43 Adam Klapka R -0.08 0.00 +0.13 -0.25 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 12:22
70 Ryan Lomberg L -0.12 0.00 0.00 -0.32 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 6:02
16 Morgan Frost C -0.17 0.00 +0.14 -0.35 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 18:21
11 Mikael Backlund C -0.28 0.00 0.00 -0.12 -0.15 -0.03 +0.02 — 14:39
47 Connor Zary C -0.35 0.00 +0.05 -0.26 -0.15 +0.01 0.00 — 10:24
32 Dustin Wolf G -1.44 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.44 56:45

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.