St. Louis Blues
Central Division, Western Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 50.0% |
|
Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Oct 04, 2026
Likely First-Round Opponents
| Opponent | Probability | Likelihood |
|---|---|---|
Dallas Stars
|
8.1% | |
Chicago Blackhawks
|
7.7% | |
Calgary Flames
|
4.4% | |
Colorado Avalanche
|
3.8% | |
Vegas Golden Knights
|
2.7% | |
Utah Mammoth
|
2.5% | |
Minnesota Wild
|
2.4% | |
Seattle Kraken
|
1.7% | |
Los Angeles Kings
|
0.6% |
Probabilities sum to 35.0% (= playoff probability). Remaining 65.0% = miss playoffs.
Analysis
Summary
The St. Louis Blues are on the brink, sitting at 73 points with just a 4.7% playoff probability despite a recent surge. Their odds jumped by 6.5%, but they still project to finish about three points shy of the expected 86.2-point cutoff in the Western Conference. With nine games left, the margin for error is effectively gone.
Record and Recent Performance
At 31-31-11 through 73 games, the Blues own a 50.0% points percentage and a -37 goal differential (195 scored, 232 allowed), both indicators of a team that has hovered around mediocrity for most of the season. Their overall team strength rating of 49.7% reflects that profile, though the split is dramatic: 58.9% at home versus just 43.0% on the road. The bright spot is recent form, tracking at 70.0%, which explains the uptick in playoff odds. Still, the underlying numbers suggest they’ve been outscored consistently, and sustaining a hot streak is essential given their projected finish of 82.8 points.
The Competition
The Western Conference race is crowded and unforgiving. Nashville currently holds the final playoff spot at 77 points, projected for 86.0, while Los Angeles (76), Seattle (75), San Jose (75), and Winnipeg (74) are all packed tightly between 74 and 76 points. St. Louis sits 13th, four points back of the cutline with no games in hand on most of the teams ahead. Anaheim, Edmonton, Utah, and Vegas are effectively out of reach, all projected above 90 points. Realistically, the Blues would need to leapfrog at least five teams to claim the eighth seed, and several of those clubs project right around the 86-point threshold, meaning St. Louis likely needs closer to 88 or more to feel safe.
Remaining Schedule
The Blues have nine games remaining, with a road-heavy 5-4 split and opponents carrying a 55.3% average strength, slightly above the league average of 53.2%. While the schedule is labeled as average in difficulty, their 43.0% road strength is a concern given the extra away game. They’re projected to earn 9.8 more points, which would leave them short of the 86.2-point cutoff. To control their fate, they likely need at least 13 or 14 points out of a possible 18, something like a 6-1-2 or 7-2-0 finish, and they’ll need help in the form of multiple teams ahead of them stalling out.
Outlook
The Blues have given themselves a pulse with improved play, but the math remains daunting. At 4.7% playoff odds and a projected finish below the cutline, they need both a near-elite closing run and widespread regression from a tightly packed group above them. It’s not impossible, but St. Louis is firmly in long-shot territory entering the final stretch.
Bandwagon Options
Your team's playoff hopes are fading — here are some teams worth cheering for:
Carolina Hurricanes
Metropolitan · Eastern| W | L | OTL | PTS | Diff | Str | Playoff | Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 44.0% | 76.3% | 3.9% |
Carolina plays a fast, structured game that Blues fans can appreciate — heavy forecheck, strong blue line, and depth throughout the lineup. Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov bring the skill, while the Canes’ relentless pace makes every series feel intense. They’re a legitimate contender without any Central Division baggage.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Atlantic · Eastern| W | L | OTL | PTS | Diff | Str | Playoff | Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 41.4% | 48.5% | 1.0% |
If you want proven playoff performers, Tampa Bay is an easy bandwagon. Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point can take over games, and the Lightning still know how to manage a long postseason run. It’s a chance to watch high-end skill and big-game experience in the Eastern Conference.
Buffalo Sabres
Atlantic · Eastern| W | L | OTL | PTS | Diff | Str | Playoff | Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 43.8% | 59.9% | 1.8% |
Buffalo offers the fun mix of contender and rising-core energy. Tage Thompson headlines an explosive offense, and the Sabres play an up-tempo style that makes for entertaining hockey. They haven’t had sustained playoff success in years, so there’s a fresh-story feel here.
Edmonton Oilers
Pacific · Western| W | L | OTL | PTS | Diff | Str | Playoff | Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | +3 | 70.8% | 41.0% | 0.5% |
If you’re just in it for superstar brilliance, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are must-watch. Edmonton’s power play can flip a series in a week, and their push to finally break through adds real drama. They’re Western Conference, but outside the Central, so it’s easier to get on board.
Anaheim Ducks
Pacific · Western| W | L | OTL | PTS | Diff | Str | Playoff | Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 71.0% | 11.0% | 0.0% |
Anaheim is a sneakier pick — a team that’s outperformed expectations and leaned into a speed-and-skill identity. With a young core driving the offense, they’re the kind of group that can get hot and make things chaotic. If you like rooting for a dangerous underdog, this is your ride.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has mathematically clinched a playoff spot. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 35.0% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 86–98 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 94–98 points. Finishes above the cutline in 38.1% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Western Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | 2 | 80 | 86.2% | 50.0% | 50.3% | 96.7 | 58.0% | |
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 79 | 58.1% | 50.0% | 51.9% | 77.7 | 2.0% | |
| 6 | 4 | 2 | 80 | 75.2% | 70.0% | 51.2% | 85.8 | 13.1% | |
| 7 | 2 | 2 | 80 | 57.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | 103.8 | 86.3% | |
| 8 | 2 | 1 | 81 | 71.0% | 45.0% | 51.2% | 84.6 | 11.0% | |
| 9 | 2 | 2 | 80 | 62.7% | 50.0% | 51.9% | 100.7 | 77.3% | |
| 10 | 2 | 2 | 80 | 47.5% | 60.0% | 52.2% | 92.0 | 35.0% | |
| 11 | 2 | 2 | 80 | 39.0% | 30.0% | 52.6% | 84.1 | 9.2% | |
| 12 | 1 | 1 | 81 | 39.0% | 30.0% | 53.0% | 82.0 | 5.9% | |
Today's Impact
| Game | Impact | |
|---|---|---|
| NYR vs UTA |
NYR win:
+0.9%
UTA win:
-0.8%
|
|
| LIVE DET vs WPG |
DET win:
+0.4%
WPG win:
-0.8%
|
Yesterday's Impact
| Result | Impact | |
|---|---|---|
| COL 6 - STL 1 | STL played |
-3.5%
|
| MIN 4 - BOS 1 |
-0.5%
|
|
| Net: | -4.0% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47.5% | 55.0% | 44.4% | 41.0% | 60.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Robert Thomas | C | 65 | 25 | 38 | 63 | +23 | 0 | 10 | 41 | 19:02 | |
| 21 | Jimmy Snuggerud | R | 71 | 21 | 31 | 52 | +17 | 0 | 73 | 38 | 16:41 | |
| 81 | Dylan Holloway | L | 60 | 22 | 28 | 50 | +11 | 0 | 132 | 43 | 18:14 | |
| 89 | Pavel Buchnevich | L | 82 | 20 | 27 | 47 | -7 | 0 | 31 | 41 | 17:55 | |
| 6 | Philip Broberg | D | 82 | 6 | 29 | 35 | +11 | 0 | 36 | 98 | 23:20 | |
| 63 | Jake Neighbours | L | 70 | 15 | 19 | 34 | -8 | 0 | 157 | 38 | 15:11 | |
| 22 | Pius Suter | C | 65 | 14 | 16 | 30 | +13 | 0 | 45 | 23 | 15:53 | |
| 17 | Cam Fowler | D | 83 | 3 | 26 | 29 | -11 | 0 | 9 | 75 | 21:09 | |
| 15 | Dalibor Dvorsky | R | 72 | 13 | 9 | 22 | -6 | 0 | 78 | 24 | 14:18 | |
| 55 | Colton Parayko | D | 78 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -7 | 0 | 97 | 177 | 22:09 | |
| 29 | Jonatan Berggren | R | 37 | 6 | 8 | 14 | -5 | 0 | 32 | 11 | 14:36 | |
| 13 | Alexey Toropchenko | R | 65 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -13 | 0 | 129 | 56 | 11:50 | |
| 4 | Theo Lindstein | D | 18 | 2 | 3 | 5 | +7 | 0 | 8 | 14 | 15:32 | |
| 83 | Mason McTavish ← ANA | C | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 14:46 | |
| 77 | Connor McMichael ← WSH | L | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:11 | |
| 25 | Brandon Carlo ← TOR | D | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 16:31 | |
| 49 | Ross Johnston ← ANA | L | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 9:56 | |
| 65 | Dillon Dube | C | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13:16 | |
| 36 | Adam Jiricek | D | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 18:09 | |
| 52 | Zach Dean | C | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 12:37 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Location | Score | Result | Opp Strength | Playoff Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 03 | Colorado Avalanche | Away | 6 - 1 | L | 82.3% | -3.5% |
| Oct 02 | Dallas Stars | Away | 0 - 4 | W | 12.4% | +4.8% |
| Sep 26 | Chicago Blackhawks | Away | 3 - 2 | L | 12.0% | - |
| Sep 24 | Chicago Blackhawks | Home | 1 - 0 | W | 12.0% | - |
| Sep 21 | Dallas Stars | Away | 2 - 1 | L | 12.4% | - |
| Sep 19 | Dallas Stars | Home | 1 - 2 | L | 12.4% | - |
| Apr 16 | Utah Mammoth | Away | 3 - 5 | W | 92.5% | 0.0% |
| Apr 14 | Pittsburgh Penguins | Home | 7 - 5 | W | 86.6% | 0.0% |
| Apr 13 | Minnesota Wild | Home | 6 - 3 | W | 86.2% | 0.0% |
| Apr 11 | Chicago Blackhawks | Away | 3 - 5 | W | 12.0% | 0.0% |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Playoff Swing | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 06, 20:00 | @ Chicago Blackhawks | Away | 12.0% | 0.87 | 7.9% | CHI (64%) |
| Oct 08, 20:00 | vs San Jose Sharks | Home | 75.2% | 1.32 | - | STL (61%) |
| Oct 10, 19:00 | vs Columbus Blue Jackets | Home | 50.0% | 1.15 | - | STL (51%) |
| Oct 13, 19:30 | @ Ottawa Senators | Away | 70.6% | 1.15 | - | STL (51%) |
| Oct 15, 20:00 | @ Minnesota Wild | Away | 86.2% | 1.01 | - | MIN (56%) |
| Oct 17, 20:00 | @ Nashville Predators | Away | 39.0% | 1.14 | - | STL (51%) |
| Oct 20, 20:00 | vs Winnipeg Jets | Home | 39.0% | 1.31 | - | STL (61%) |
| Oct 22, 20:00 | vs Vegas Golden Knights | Home | 57.0% | 1.03 | - | VGK (55%) |
| Oct 24, 19:00 | vs Carolina Hurricanes | Home | 44.0% | 1.08 | - | CAR (53%) |
| Oct 27, 20:00 | vs Montréal Canadiens | Home | 59.5% | 1.13 | - | STL (50%) |
| Averages (Next 10 games): | 11.2 pts | 2.7% | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.