St. Louis Blues
Central Division, Western Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 20 | 28 | 9 | 49 | 147 | 203 | -56 | 43.0% |
|
Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Feb 20, 2026
Analysis
Summary
The St. Louis Blues are effectively out of the playoff race, with their postseason probability sitting at 0.0% and a projected finish well short of the cutoff. At 49 points through 57 games, the gap to relevance is too large and the underlying performance offers little hope of a late surge.
Record and Recent Performance
St. Louis owns a 20-28-9 record and a 43.0% points percentage, which ranks near the bottom of the Western Conference and reflects a season-long struggle to generate consistent results. Their goal differential of minus-56, driven by 203 goals against versus 147 scored, underscores systemic issues at both ends of the ice. A team strength rating of 35.1%, with a stark split between a passable 44.8% at home and a poor 27.7% on the road, aligns with a recent form of just 25.0%, signaling that things have not improved as the season has worn on.
The Competition
The playoff cutline in the conference is currently held by the Anaheim Ducks at 63 points, projecting to 94.9 points, while even fringe contenders like the Los Angeles Kings at 60 points and the Nashville Predators at 59 points are tracking well above St. Louis. The projected cutoff of 90.6 points is more than 40 points beyond where the Blues sit now, and every team ahead of them from Chicago upward has both a higher strength rating and a higher projected finish. With multiple clubs between 63 and 68 points and playoff odds north of 75% in several cases, there is no realistic path for St. Louis to gain enough ground.
Remaining Schedule
The Blues have 25 games left, split into 11 at home and 14 on the road, which is a concern given their significant road struggles. The remaining opponents average a 53.3% strength rating, essentially league average, making the schedule difficulty neutral rather than forgiving. Based on current performance levels, St. Louis is expected to earn about 23.6 more points, which would leave them at a projected final total of 72.6 points, far below any meaningful playoff benchmark.
Outlook
Barring an unprecedented turnaround, the Blues’ final two months are about evaluation and development rather than standings watching. Their projected finish places them firmly in the conference’s bottom tier, and the math simply does not support a playoff chase. For fans, the focus shifts to roster decisions, young player growth, and setting a foundation for a more competitive season ahead.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has already reached that threshold. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 0.0% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 69–76 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 89–92 points. Finishes above the cutline in 0.0% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Western Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 68 | 57 | 25 | 52.5% | 40.0% | 53.2% | 96.3 | 91.1% | |
| 5 | 64 | 57 | 25 | 59.6% | 70.0% | 52.3% | 94.4 | 86.1% | |
| 6 | 64 | 58 | 24 | 52.1% | 50.0% | 53.3% | 90.6 | 58.5% | |
| 7 | 63 | 56 | 26 | 53.4% | 60.0% | 52.7% | 92.9 | 76.5% | |
| 8 | 63 | 56 | 26 | 56.6% | 80.0% | 49.1% | 94.9 | 86.2% | |
| 9 | 60 | 56 | 26 | 49.6% | 55.0% | 49.4% | 89.5 | 43.6% | |
| 10 | 59 | 57 | 25 | 45.6% | 45.0% | 53.0% | 85.7 | 19.3% | |
| 11 | 58 | 55 | 27 | 46.8% | 45.0% | 49.3% | 88.1 | 33.9% | |
| 12 | 53 | 57 | 25 | 42.4% | 40.0% | 52.9% | 78.7 | 1.0% | |
| 13 | 52 | 56 | 26 | 45.7% | 45.0% | 51.3% | 80.5 | 2.8% | |
| 14 | 52 | 56 | 26 | 44.6% | 50.0% | 54.5% | 78.3 | 1.1% | |
| 15 | 49 | 57 | 25 | 35.1% | 25.0% | 53.3% | 72.5 | 0.0% | |
| 16 | 42 | 57 | 25 | 32.8% | 25.0% | 53.2% | 65.3 | 0.0% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35.1% | 44.8% | 27.7% | 34.4% | 25.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | Pavel Buchnevich | L | 57 | 12 | 22 | 34 | -14 | 0 | 24 | 25 | 18:20 | |
| 18 | Robert Thomas | C | 42 | 11 | 22 | 33 | -2 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 18:57 | |
| 25 | Jordan Kyrou | R | 47 | 13 | 19 | 32 | -7 | 0 | 11 | 17 | 16:12 | |
| 72 | Justin Faulk | D | 57 | 11 | 19 | 30 | -3 | 0 | 44 | 97 | 22:28 | |
| 63 | Jake Neighbours | L | 44 | 14 | 10 | 24 | -9 | 0 | 110 | 23 | 15:48 | |
| 10 | Brayden Schenn | C | 57 | 12 | 12 | 24 | -25 | 0 | 128 | 25 | 16:45 | |
| 21 | Jimmy Snuggerud | R | 45 | 10 | 14 | 24 | -4 | 0 | 49 | 28 | 16:06 | |
| 6 | Philip Broberg | D | 56 | 3 | 16 | 19 | -2 | 0 | 24 | 79 | 23:01 | |
| 17 | Cam Fowler | D | 57 | 1 | 17 | 18 | -22 | 0 | 8 | 53 | 21:21 | |
| 81 | Dylan Holloway | L | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | -13 | 0 | 91 | 27 | 17:43 | |
| 54 | Dalibor Dvorsky | R | 47 | 9 | 6 | 15 | -5 | 0 | 65 | 18 | 14:30 | |
| 22 | Pius Suter | C | 40 | 7 | 8 | 15 | -2 | 0 | 30 | 16 | 16:31 | |
| 70 | Oskar Sundqvist | C | 43 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -18 | 0 | 53 | 24 | 13:14 | |
| 75 | Tyler Tucker | D | 52 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -6 | 0 | 76 | 38 | 14:09 | |
| 55 | Colton Parayko | D | 57 | 1 | 12 | 13 | -16 | 0 | 65 | 140 | 22:24 | |
| 26 | Nathan Walker | L | 37 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 0 | 144 | 27 | 12:15 | |
| 71 | Mathieu Joseph | R | 39 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -5 | 0 | 86 | 28 | 12:40 | |
| 29 | Jonatan Berggren ← DET | R | 20 | 5 | 3 | 8 | -1 | 0 | 13 | 5 | 14:36 | |
| 28 | Otto Stenberg | C | 18 | 1 | 7 | 8 | +4 | 0 | 33 | 10 | 13:59 | |
| 72 | Nick Bjugstad | C | 35 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -7 | 0 | 73 | 22 | 11:38 | |
| 13 | Alexey Toropchenko | R | 41 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -11 | 0 | 89 | 39 | 12:11 | |
| 9 | Robby Fabbri | C | 15 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 0 | 35 | 8 | 12:35 | |
| 51 | Matthew Kessel | D | 22 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 9 | 15 | 11:58 | |
| 23 | Logan Mailloux | D | 42 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -22 | 0 | 53 | 26 | 13:54 | |
| 85 | Alexandre Texier → MTL | L | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 10:15 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 04 | @ DAL | 5 - 4 | L |
| Feb 02 | @ NSH | 6 - 5 | L |
| Jan 31 | vs CBJ | 3 - 5 | L |
| Jan 29 | vs FLA | 5 - 4 | W |
| Jan 27 | vs DAL | 3 - 4 | L |
| Jan 24 | vs LAK | 4 - 5 | L (OT/SO) |
| Jan 23 | @ DAL | 3 - 2 | L |
| Jan 20 | @ WPG | 3 - 1 | L |
| Jan 18 | @ EDM | 5 - 0 | L |
| Jan 16 | vs TBL | 3 - 2 | W (OT/SO) |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 20:00 | vs Seattle Kraken | Home | 53.4% | 1.07 | SEA (53%) |
| Feb 28, 17:00 | vs New Jersey Devils | Home | 43.8% | 1.13 | STL (50%) |
| Mar 01, 17:00 | @ Minnesota Wild | Away | 65.9% | 0.76 | MIN (71%) |
| Mar 04, 22:00 | @ Seattle Kraken | Away | 53.4% | 0.82 | SEA (67%) |
| Mar 06, 22:00 | @ San Jose Sharks | Away | 46.8% | 0.87 | SJS (65%) |
| Mar 08, 21:00 | @ Anaheim Ducks | Away | 56.6% | 0.76 | ANA (71%) |
| Mar 10, 19:30 | vs New York Islanders | Home | 55.9% | 1.03 | NYI (56%) |
| Mar 12, 19:00 | @ Carolina Hurricanes | Away | 68.2% | 0.74 | CAR (72%) |
| Mar 13, 20:00 | vs Edmonton Oilers | Home | 52.1% | 1.10 | EDM (51%) |
| Mar 15, 15:00 | @ Winnipeg Jets | Away | 45.7% | 0.87 | WPG (65%) |
| Total Expected (Next 10 games): | 9.1 pts | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.