Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 3–6 Final Detroit Red WingsDET

Saturday, October 11, 2025

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR	2	0	1	3	23
Detroit Red WingsDET	0	3	3	6	35

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
2:27	TOR	Calle Jarnkrok (2) Nicolas Roy (1), Chris Tanev (1) · wrist xG 0.38	1–0 ▶
12:29	TOR	Nicolas Roy (1) Morgan Rielly (2), William Nylander (3) · tip-in xG 0.09	2–0 ▶
2nd Period
8:56	DET	Marco Kasper (1) Patrick Kane (2), Alex DeBrincat (1) · snap xG 0.15	2–1 ▶
14:55	DET	Lucas Raymond (1) Dylan Larkin (1), Emmitt Finnie (1) · wrist xG 0.13	2–2 ▶
18:10	DET	Patrick Kane (1) Alex DeBrincat (2), Albert Johansson (1) · snap xG 0.17	2–3 ▶
3rd Period
2:38	TOR	Max Domi (1) Morgan Rielly (3) · wrist xG 0.24	3–3 ▶
6:45	DET	Lucas Raymond (2)PP Patrick Kane (3), Alex DeBrincat (3) · deflected xG 0.10	3–4 ▶
18:12	DET	Simon Edvinsson (1)EN Cam Talbot (1) · wrist xG 0.39	3–5 ▶
19:55	DET	Andrew Copp (1)EN Unassisted · wrist xG 0.50	3–6 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TOR 31%Deserve to win69% DET

TOR		DET
2.45	Expected goals	4.49
3	Goals (no shootout)	6
1.68	Expected goals, 5 on 5	3.02
48	Shot attempts	67
34	Unblocked attempts	50
23	Shots on goal	35

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
10:59	DET	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · DET takes the lead, 60–40% TOR had led since 2:27 of the 1st, by as much as 62%
2nd Period
2:20	TOR	No shift	No shift · Lorentz, 35:41 on the bench No shift after 9:24 of the 1st; 3 shifts (1:17) before that
18:10	DET	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced TOR 1.20–0.09 In xG over 10 minutes, 8:10 to 18:10 of the 2nd; goals 3–0
3rd Period
18:06	TOR	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Stolarz, down 4–3 With 1:54 left; DET scored at 18:12 of the 3rd (3–5)

Shot map

TOR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ DET shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Toronto Maple Leafs

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
34	Auston Matthews	0	0	0	-1	12	0.70	0	3	21:41
89	Matthew Knies	0	0	0	0	3	0.20	2	1	21:19
88	William Nylander	0	1	1	-1	2	0.06	0	0	21:13
91	John Tavares	0	0	0	-2	4	0.11	0	0	19:58
74	Bobby McMann	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	5	3	16:35
63	Matias Maccelli	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	1	15:45
11	Max Domi	1	0	1	-1	6	0.55	0	1	14:53
14	Nick Robertson	0	0	0	-1	3	0.07	2	0	13:01
81	Dakota Joshua	0	0	0	-2	4	0.07	2	1	11:22
10	Nicolas Roy	1	1	2	-1	4	0.22	0	1	10:47
19	Calle Jarnkrok	1	0	1	0	1	0.38	0	0	08:20
18	Steven Lorentz	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	0	01:17
Defense
44	Morgan Rielly	0	2	2	-1	4	0.09	1	1	22:15
25	Brandon Carlo	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	20:35
22	Jake McCabe	0	0	0	+1	1	0.00	1	2	19:38
95	Oliver Ekman-Larsson	0	0	0	-2	2	0.00	5	0	19:08
8	Chris Tanev	0	1	1	+1	1	0.00	0	1	17:46
44	Simon Benoit	0	0	0	-2	1	0.00	2	1	17:00

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Anthony Stolarz	33	4	29	.879	3.61	-0.39

Detroit Red Wings

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
71	Dylan Larkin	0	1	1	+2	7	0.61	0	1	21:56
23	Lucas Raymond	2	0	2	+3	4	0.29	1	0	20:41
93	Alex DeBrincat	0	3	3	+1	10	0.50	0	0	17:47
37	J.T. Compher	0	0	0	+1	2	0.23	0	2	16:45
88	Patrick Kane	1	2	3	+1	5	0.41	1	0	16:25
18	Andrew Copp	1	0	1	0	2	0.53	1	1	14:48
92	Marco Kasper	1	0	1	0	5	0.37	0	1	13:49
58	Emmitt Finnie	0	1	1	+2	2	0.20	1	0	13:46
22	Mason Appleton	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	0	1	13:07
27	Michael Rasmussen	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	2	1	10:17
29	Jonatan Berggren	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	1	0	08:47
Defense
53	Moritz Seider	0	0	0	-2	3	0.10	1	3	28:03
8	Ben Chiarot	0	0	0	-2	1	0.00	4	1	23:58
77	Simon Edvinsson	1	0	1	+1	4	0.40	1	1	20:35
44	Axel Sandin-Pellikka	0	0	0	0	4	0.15	0	1	18:20
20	Albert Johansson	0	1	1	+4	5	0.17	1	0	13:17
25	Jacob Bernard-Docker	0	0	0	+3	5	0.03	0	0	10:16

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Cam Talbot	23	3	20	.870	2.45	-0.55

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
55 Nicolas Roy C	+1.42	+1.45	+0.14	-0.17	0.00	-0.02	+0.01	—	10:47
19 Calle Jarnkrok C	+1.27	+0.75	+0.25	+0.27	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	8:20
8 Chris Tanev D	+1.22	+0.55	0.00	+0.64	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	17:46
22 Jake McCabe D	+0.94	0.00	0.00	+0.86	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	19:38
18 Steven Lorentz C	+0.58	0.00	0.00	+0.59	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	1:17
34 Auston Matthews C	+0.49	0.00	+0.46	+0.06	-0.15	-0.01	+0.13	—	21:41
11 Max Domi C	+0.46	+0.75	+0.36	-0.53	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	14:53
44 Morgan Rielly D	+0.37	+1.40	+0.06	-1.13	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	22:15
23 Matthew Knies L	+0.24	0.00	+0.13	+0.06	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	21:19
63 Matias Maccelli L	+0.05	0.00	0.00	+0.01	0.00	+0.01	+0.03	—	15:45
89 Nick Robertson L	-0.21	0.00	+0.05	-0.24	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	13:01
41 Anthony Stolarz G	-0.39	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.39	58:24
88 William Nylander R	-0.56	+0.55	+0.04	-1.14	0.00	+0.01	-0.02	—	21:13
81 Dakota Joshua C	-0.94	0.00	+0.05	-1.04	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	11:22
2 Simon Benoit D	-1.04	0.00	0.00	-1.22	+0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	17:00
91 John Tavares C	-1.14	0.00	+0.07	-1.36	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	19:58
25 Brandon Carlo D	-1.14	0.00	0.00	-0.99	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	20:35
74 Bobby McMann C	-1.23	0.00	0.00	-1.38	0.00	0.00	+0.15	—	16:35
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D	-1.56	0.00	0.00	-1.39	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	19:08

Detroit Red Wings

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
88 Patrick Kane R	+3.71	+2.15	+0.27	+1.31	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	16:25
93 Alex DeBrincat R	+3.63	+1.80	+0.33	+1.51	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	17:47
92 Marco Kasper C	+2.31	+0.75	+0.24	+1.31	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	13:49
23 Lucas Raymond L	+2.19	+1.50	+0.19	+0.32	+0.15	+0.01	+0.02	—	20:41
18 Andrew Copp C	+1.95	+0.75	+0.34	+0.84	0.00	-0.02	+0.03	—	14:48
77 Simon Edvinsson D	+1.67	+0.75	+0.26	+0.65	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	20:35
20 Albert Johansson D	+1.60	+0.55	+0.11	+0.94	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:17
71 Dylan Larkin C	+1.32	+0.70	+0.40	+0.18	0.00	+0.03	+0.01	—	21:56
28 Michael Brandsegg-Nygård R	+1.23	0.00	+0.32	+0.84	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	11:23
37 J.T. Compher L	+1.09	0.00	+0.15	+0.73	+0.15	-0.01	+0.08	—	16:45
25 Jacob Bernard-Docker D	+0.85	0.00	+0.02	+0.85	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	10:16
58 Emmitt Finnie C	+0.75	+0.55	+0.13	+0.06	0.00	-0.01	+0.02	—	13:46
44 Axel Sandin-Pellikka D	+0.64	0.00	+0.10	+0.65	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	18:20
53 Moritz Seider D	+0.31	0.00	+0.07	+0.11	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	28:03
8 Ben Chiarot D	+0.21	0.00	0.00	+0.03	+0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	23:58
39 Cam Talbot G	+0.15	+0.70	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.55	60:00
27 Michael Rasmussen C	-0.63	0.00	0.00	-0.70	0.00	+0.02	+0.05	—	10:17
22 Mason Appleton C	-0.71	0.00	0.00	-0.76	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	13:07
48 Jonatan Berggren R	-0.79	0.00	0.00	-0.79	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	8:47

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.