Detroit Red Wings
Atlantic Division, Eastern Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 33 | 19 | 6 | 72 | 174 | 175 | -1 | 62.1% |
|
Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Feb 20, 2026
Analysis
Summary
Detroit sits in a strong but not comfortable playoff position, holding an 82.7% chance to qualify with a projected 99.9 points, a few points above the expected cutline. They are firmly in the mix for a top-three divisional spot, but the margin for error is thinner than their current rank suggests given how crowded the race is behind them.
Record and Recent Performance
The Red Wings are 33-19-6 through 58 games, good for 72 points and a 62.1% points percentage, which places them third in the conference standings snapshot. Their goal differential is essentially even at minus-one, indicating a team that wins close games rather than dominating territorially. A team strength rating of 55.5% and recent form of 60.0% suggest steady but unspectacular play, with home performance slightly stronger than on the road and no clear surge or collapse trend at the moment.
The Competition
Carolina is comfortably ahead with 78 points and a projected 108.3 finish, making it unrealistic for Detroit to catch them without a major swing. The real pressure comes from Montreal, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Boston, all within three points of Detroit and all projecting between roughly 97 and 101 points. Montreal and Pittsburgh in particular rate stronger by underlying metrics, meaning Detroit is more likely defending position than climbing, while teams like Columbus and the Islanders loom near the cutline and could tighten the race with a good run.
Remaining Schedule
Detroit has 24 games left, split 11 at home and 13 on the road, with an opponent strength of 54.5% that grades out as roughly average. The schedule balance offers no major advantage, so their fate will largely depend on maintaining their current pace rather than exploiting soft stretches. With 27.9 expected remaining points, they are projected to finish just over 99 points, about three points clear of the projected 96.7 cutoff, leaving limited cushion if they stumble.
Outlook
The Red Wings are more likely in than out, but this is shaping up as a grind to the finish rather than a comfortable coast. If they continue playing at their current level, they should secure a playoff spot, though a slide could quickly drop them into a wild-card dogfight. Detroit’s path is clear: bank points early, especially at home, and avoid letting the deeper, stronger-charging teams behind them dictate the race.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has already reached that threshold. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 82.8% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 97–103 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 95–97 points. Finishes above the cutline in 86.9% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Eastern Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 78 | 57 | 25 | 68.2% | 90.0% | 55.0% | 108.3 | 99.7% | |
| 3 | 72 | 58 | 24 | 55.5% | 60.0% | 54.5% | 99.9 | 82.8% | |
| 4 | 72 | 57 | 25 | 58.5% | 65.0% | 54.7% | 101.2 | 87.5% | |
| 5 | 70 | 57 | 25 | 59.0% | 65.0% | 54.5% | 99.3 | 81.8% | |
| 6 | 70 | 56 | 26 | 62.9% | 80.0% | 55.4% | 101.2 | 91.3% | |
| 7 | 69 | 57 | 25 | 59.9% | 75.0% | 56.0% | 97.7 | 70.1% | |
| 8 | 69 | 58 | 24 | 55.9% | 60.0% | 54.0% | 96.6 | 63.9% | |
| 9 | 65 | 59 | 23 | 54.2% | 55.0% | 53.5% | 91.2 | 20.4% | |
| 10 | 65 | 56 | 26 | 60.7% | 90.0% | 54.6% | 95.9 | 56.3% | |
| 11 | 63 | 57 | 25 | 55.5% | 65.0% | 53.8% | 91.8 | 20.4% | |
| 12 | 63 | 57 | 25 | 49.8% | 45.0% | 54.3% | 89.8 | 9.1% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55.5% | 57.7% | 55.5% | 49.7% | 60.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Lucas Raymond | L | 56 | 19 | 41 | 60 | +10 | 0 | 30 | 24 | 18:31 | |
| 93 | Alex DeBrincat | R | 58 | 30 | 27 | 57 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 25 | 18:05 | |
| 71 | Dylan Larkin | C | 58 | 26 | 25 | 51 | +8 | 0 | 32 | 29 | 20:16 | |
| 53 | Moritz Seider | D | 58 | 7 | 31 | 38 | +13 | 0 | 88 | 130 | 25:41 | |
| 18 | Andrew Copp | C | 58 | 8 | 25 | 33 | -1 | 0 | 34 | 43 | 16:06 | |
| 88 | Patrick Kane | R | 43 | 8 | 24 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 17 | 17:07 | |
| 21 | James van Riemsdyk | L | 49 | 14 | 11 | 25 | -11 | 0 | 8 | 23 | 12:28 | |
| 58 | Emmitt Finnie | C | 58 | 9 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 0 | 86 | 31 | 15:31 | |
| 37 | J.T. Compher | L | 58 | 8 | 11 | 19 | -5 | 0 | 19 | 35 | 15:08 | |
| 44 | Axel Sandin-Pellikka | D | 58 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -20 | 0 | 15 | 51 | 16:38 | |
| 77 | Simon Edvinsson | D | 48 | 6 | 11 | 17 | +7 | 0 | 63 | 104 | 22:38 | |
| 27 | Michael Rasmussen | C | 53 | 6 | 8 | 14 | -4 | 0 | 53 | 44 | 12:44 | |
| 92 | Marco Kasper | C | 57 | 6 | 7 | 13 | -11 | 0 | 131 | 34 | 13:37 | |
| 8 | Ben Chiarot | D | 58 | 5 | 7 | 12 | -3 | 0 | 118 | 119 | 20:57 | |
| 22 | Mason Appleton | C | 48 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -4 | 0 | 64 | 21 | 13:39 | |
| 20 | Albert Johansson | D | 58 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -10 | 0 | 43 | 81 | 16:16 | |
| 29 | Jonatan Berggren → STL | R | 15 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -3 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 11:59 | |
| 43 | John Leonard | L | 9 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 12:01 | |
| 25 | Jacob Bernard-Docker | D | 42 | 0 | 4 | 4 | +8 | 0 | 51 | 61 | 14:58 | |
| 85 | Elmer Soderblom | L | 38 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 0 | 62 | 11 | 10:45 | |
| 52 | Travis Hamonic | D | 25 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -10 | 0 | 27 | 41 | 14:16 | |
| 56 | Erik Gustafsson | D | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:06 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 04 | @ UTA | 4 - 1 | L |
| Feb 02 | @ COL | 0 - 2 | W |
| Jan 31 | vs COL | 0 - 5 | L |
| Jan 29 | vs WSH | 3 - 4 | L (OT/SO) |
| Jan 27 | vs LAK | 1 - 3 | L |
| Jan 24 | @ WPG | 1 - 5 | W |
| Jan 22 | @ MIN | 4 - 3 | L (OT/SO) |
| Jan 21 | @ TOR | 1 - 2 | W (OT/SO) |
| Jan 18 | vs OTT | 4 - 3 | W (OT/SO) |
| Jan 16 | vs SJS | 4 - 2 | W |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 19:00 | @ Ottawa Senators | Away | 55.5% | 1.11 | OTT (51%) |
| Feb 28, 19:00 | @ Carolina Hurricanes | Away | 68.2% | 1.02 | CAR (56%) |
| Mar 02, 14:00 | @ Nashville Predators | Away | 45.6% | 1.17 | DET (53%) |
| Mar 04, 19:00 | vs Vegas Golden Knights | Home | 52.5% | 1.17 | DET (53%) |
| Mar 06, 19:00 | vs Florida Panthers | Home | 46.7% | 1.23 | DET (56%) |
| Mar 08, 19:00 | @ New Jersey Devils | Away | 43.8% | 1.22 | DET (55%) |
| Mar 10, 19:00 | @ Florida Panthers | Away | 46.7% | 1.19 | DET (54%) |
| Mar 12, 19:00 | @ Tampa Bay Lightning | Away | 71.7% | 1.03 | TBL (55%) |
| Mar 14, 20:00 | @ Dallas Stars | Away | 63.9% | 1.06 | DAL (54%) |
| Mar 16, 19:00 | vs Calgary Flames | Home | 44.6% | 1.38 | DET (64%) |
| Total Expected (Next 10 games): | 11.6 pts | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.