| Final | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 28 | |
| 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 27 |
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 6:08 | Brad Marchand (2) Seth Jones (1), Gustav Forsling (2) · backhand xG 0.06 | 0–1 ▶ | |
| 9:54 | Evan Rodrigues (1) Aaron Ekblad (1) · snap xG 0.02 | 0–2 ▶ | |
| 17:33 | Shane Pinto (3) Ridly Greig (1) · wrist xG 0.18 | 1–2 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 0:35 | Aaron Ekblad (1)PP Brad Marchand (1), Seth Jones (2) · snap xG 0.04 | 1–3 ▶ | |
| 18:28 | Anton Lundell (2)PP Jeff Petry (2), Carter Verhaeghe (1) · tip-in xG 0.12 | 1–4 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 5:29 | Mackie Samoskevich (1)PP Anton Lundell (1) · wrist xG 0.21 | 1–5 ▶ | |
| 11:14 | Sam Reinhart (1) Gustav Forsling (3) · wrist xG 0.17 | 1–6 ▶ | |
| 17:35 | Shane Pinto (4) Claude Giroux (1) · wrist xG 0.08 | 2–6 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| OTT | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.72 | Expected goals | 2.96 |
| 2 | Goals (no shootout) | 6 |
| 1.47 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 1.80 |
| 48 | Shot attempts | 54 |
| 37 | Unblocked attempts | 36 |
| 28 | Shots on goal | 27 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 2nd Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 0:35 | OTT | Goalie | Goalie · Ullmark −2.1 goals saved
3 goals on 0.88 xG, 11 shots on goal |
| 11:50 | OTT | No shift | No shift · MacDermid, 10:30 on the bench
No shift from 18:07 of the 1st to 12:12 of the 2nd; 5 shifts (3:28) before that |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 18 | Tim Stützle | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.21 | 3 | 1 | 18:50 |
| 24 | Dylan Cozens | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.12 | 5 | 0 | 17:23 |
| 20 | Fabian Zetterlund | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 3 | 0 | 17:16 |
| 8 | Brady Tkachuk | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0.17 | 1 | 0 | 16:34 |
| 12 | Shane Pinto | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 6 | 0.63 | 0 | 1 | 16:21 |
| 22 | Michael Amadio | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 15:09 |
| 16 | David Perron | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 15:08 |
| 71 | Ridly Greig | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 14:37 |
| 28 | Claude Giroux | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.10 | 0 | 0 | 13:28 |
| 20 | Lars Eller | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.04 | 3 | 0 | 12:35 |
| 21 | Nick Cousins | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 1 | 11:04 |
| 23 | Kurtis MacDermid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 1 | 2 | 06:47 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 85 | Jake Sanderson | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 0.09 | 0 | 0 | 22:25 |
| 2 | Artem Zub | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 0.06 | 3 | 4 | 20:57 |
| 72 | Thomas Chabot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.10 | 0 | 2 | 20:41 |
| 4 | Nick Jensen | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 0.04 | 4 | 1 | 19:06 |
| 33 | Nikolas Matinpalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.01 | 1 | 5 | 16:45 |
| 73 | Donovan Sebrango | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.06 | 0 | 0 | 16:09 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark | 27 | 6 | 21 | .778 | 2.96 | -3.04 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 13 | Sam Reinhart | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 0.42 | 1 | 0 | 19:19 |
| 63 | Brad Marchand | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.25 | 1 | 0 | 16:57 |
| 9 | Sam Bennett | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 3 | 0.26 | 2 | 0 | 16:47 |
| 15 | Anton Lundell | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 1 | 16:29 |
| 17 | Evan Rodrigues | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 0.16 | 0 | 0 | 16:11 |
| 27 | Eetu Luostarinen | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0.02 | 1 | 0 | 15:31 |
| 71 | Luke Kunin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 2 | 15:07 |
| 23 | Carter Verhaeghe | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.40 | 0 | 0 | 14:55 |
| 11 | Mackie Samoskevich | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.32 | 2 | 0 | 12:47 |
| 70 | Jesper Boqvist | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.04 | 4 | 0 | 12:23 |
| 18 | A.J. Greer | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.00 | 5 | 0 | 12:07 |
| 12 | Jonah Gadjovich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 5 | 0 | 10:17 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 5 | Aaron Ekblad | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 0.22 | 2 | 0 | 22:55 |
| 3 | Seth Jones | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 4 | 0.19 | 1 | 0 | 20:45 |
| 42 | Gustav Forsling | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 0.00 | 0 | 2 | 19:53 |
| 2 | Jeff Petry | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 18:45 |
| 26 | Uvis Balinskis | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 17:40 |
| 77 | Niko Mikkola | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 0.09 | 1 | 1 | 17:12 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky | 28 | 2 | 26 | .929 | 1.72 | -0.28 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Shane Pinto C | +2.51 | +1.50 | +0.41 | +0.41 | 0.00 | +0.06 | +0.13 | — | 16:21 |
| 28 Claude Giroux R | +0.91 | +0.70 | +0.07 | +0.13 | 0.00 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 13:28 |
| 71 Ridly Greig C | +0.38 | +0.70 | 0.00 | -0.12 | -0.15 | -0.01 | -0.04 | — | 14:37 |
| 57 David Perron L | +0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 15:08 |
| 33 Nikolas Matinpalo D | +0.26 | 0.00 | +0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.25 | — | 16:45 |
| 7 Brady Tkachuk L | +0.20 | 0.00 | +0.11 | +0.20 | -0.15 | +0.05 | -0.02 | — | 16:34 |
| 3 Nick Jensen D | +0.14 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.01 | — | 19:06 |
| 20 Fabian Zetterlund L | +0.09 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 17:16 |
| 72 Thomas Chabot D | -0.11 | 0.00 | +0.06 | 0.00 | -0.30 | 0.00 | +0.12 | — | 20:41 |
| 24 Dylan Cozens C | -0.13 | 0.00 | +0.08 | -0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 17:23 |
| 18 Tim Stützle C | -0.14 | 0.00 | +0.14 | -0.36 | 0.00 | +0.07 | +0.01 | — | 18:50 |
| 37 Donovan Sebrango D | -0.19 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 16:09 |
| 22 Michael Amadio R | -0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 15:09 |
| 85 Jake Sanderson D | -0.27 | 0.00 | +0.06 | -0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 22:25 |
| 23 Kurtis MacDermid L | -0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 6:47 |
| 2 Artem Zub D | -0.47 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.14 | — | 20:57 |
| 89 Lars Eller C | -0.51 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.55 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.02 | — | 12:35 |
| 21 Nick Cousins C | -0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 11:04 |
| 35 Linus Ullmark G | -3.04 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -3.04 | 59:59 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42 Gustav Forsling D | +1.98 | +1.25 | 0.00 | +0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | — | 19:53 |
| 5 Aaron Ekblad D | +1.94 | +1.45 | +0.14 | +0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 22:55 |
| 15 Anton Lundell C | +1.87 | +1.45 | +0.18 | +0.34 | 0.00 | -0.06 | -0.03 | — | 16:29 |
| 17 Evan Rodrigues C | +1.51 | +0.75 | +0.11 | +0.50 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 16:11 |
| 13 Sam Reinhart C | +1.48 | +0.75 | +0.28 | +0.50 | 0.00 | -0.05 | 0.00 | — | 19:19 |
| 63 Brad Marchand L | +1.36 | +1.45 | +0.17 | -0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 16:57 |
| 3 Seth Jones D | +1.14 | +1.25 | +0.12 | -0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 20:45 |
| 27 Eetu Luostarinen C | +1.05 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.74 | +0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 15:31 |
| 11 Mackie Samoskevich R | +1.04 | +0.75 | +0.21 | +0.22 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 12:47 |
| 23 Carter Verhaeghe C | +0.80 | +0.55 | +0.26 | -0.06 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.06 | — | 14:55 |
| 2 Jeff Petry D | +0.62 | +0.70 | 0.00 | -0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.01 | — | 18:45 |
| 71 Luke Kunin C | +0.53 | 0.00 | +0.20 | +0.28 | 0.00 | -0.05 | +0.10 | — | 15:07 |
| 26 Uvis Balinskis D | +0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 17:40 |
| 70 Jesper Boqvist C | +0.21 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.21 | 0.00 | -0.03 | 0.00 | — | 12:23 |
| 77 Niko Mikkola D | +0.21 | 0.00 | +0.06 | -0.03 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 17:12 |
| 12 Jonah Gadjovich L | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 10:17 |
| 72 Sergei Bobrovsky G | -0.28 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -0.28 | 60:00 |
| 10 A.J. Greer L | -0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 12:07 |
| 9 Sam Bennett C | -0.49 | 0.00 | +0.17 | -0.57 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.08 | — | 16:47 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.