Ottawa SenatorsOTT 2–6 Final Florida PanthersFLA

Saturday, October 11, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Ottawa SenatorsOTT 101 2 28
Florida PanthersFLA 222 6 27

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
6:08 FLA Brad Marchand (2) Seth Jones (1), Gustav Forsling (2) · backhand xG 0.06 0–1 ▶
9:54 FLA Evan Rodrigues (1) Aaron Ekblad (1) · snap xG 0.02 0–2 ▶
17:33 OTT Shane Pinto (3) Ridly Greig (1) · wrist xG 0.18 1–2 ▶
2nd Period
0:35 FLA Aaron Ekblad (1)PP Brad Marchand (1), Seth Jones (2) · snap xG 0.04 1–3 ▶
18:28 FLA Anton Lundell (2)PP Jeff Petry (2), Carter Verhaeghe (1) · tip-in xG 0.12 1–4 ▶
3rd Period
5:29 FLA Mackie Samoskevich (1)PP Anton Lundell (1) · wrist xG 0.21 1–5 ▶
11:14 FLA Sam Reinhart (1) Gustav Forsling (3) · wrist xG 0.17 1–6 ▶
17:35 OTT Shane Pinto (4) Claude Giroux (1) · wrist xG 0.08 2–6 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

OTT 27%Deserve to win73% FLA
OTTFLA
1.72Expected goals2.96
2Goals (no shootout)6
1.47Expected goals, 5 on 51.80
48Shot attempts54
37Unblocked attempts36
28Shots on goal27

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
0:35 OTT Goalie Goalie · Ullmark −2.1 goals saved
3 goals on 0.88 xG, 11 shots on goal
11:50 OTT No shift No shift · MacDermid, 10:30 on the bench
No shift from 18:07 of the 1st to 12:12 of the 2nd; 5 shifts (3:28) before that

Shot map

OTT shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ FLA shoots
Nick Jensen: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 0:14) Jake Sanderson: snap, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:35) Artem Zub: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 1:46) Jeff Petry: snap, 71 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 2:12) Evan Rodrigues: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:35) Jesper Boqvist: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 2:36) Brady Tkachuk: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 3:58) Sam Reinhart: snap, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:39) Brady Tkachuk: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 7:41) Jake Sanderson: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 8:15) Fabian Zetterlund: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 11:35) Sam Bennett: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 12:27) Aaron Ekblad: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 14:00) Evan Rodrigues: deflected, 10 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 14:15) Claude Giroux: backhand, 89 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 14:34) Brad Marchand: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 17:13) Shane Pinto: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 17:30) Donovan Sebrango: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 17:52) Dylan Cozens: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:58) Sam Reinhart: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 19:18) Seth Jones: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 0:15) Sam Bennett: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 1:53) Shane Pinto: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 3:45) Seth Jones: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 6:02) Mackie Samoskevich: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 7:17) Luke Kunin: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 7:48) Seth Jones: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 9:27) Jesper Boqvist: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:51) Shane Pinto: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 10:07) Fabian Zetterlund: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:56) Tim Stützle: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 11:08) Eetu Luostarinen: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:29) Dylan Cozens: backhand, 24 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:47) Dylan Cozens: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 14:48) Niko Mikkola: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 15:23) Carter Verhaeghe: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 15:50) Donovan Sebrango: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:26) Anton Lundell: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 18:18) Sam Reinhart: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 0:19) Niko Mikkola: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 0:21) Carter Verhaeghe: tip-in, 33 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 1:41) Artem Zub: wrist, 112 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 2:52) Nick Jensen: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:57) Brady Tkachuk: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:07) Tim Stützle: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:20) Brad Marchand: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 5:58) Anton Lundell: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 6:54) Carter Verhaeghe: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 7:16) Niko Mikkola: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 7:22) Nikolas Matinpalo: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:32) Kurtis MacDermid: tip-in, 81 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 11:47) Luke Kunin: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 12:00) Thomas Chabot: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 12:15) Thomas Chabot: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:24) Nick Jensen: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 12:33) Dylan Cozens: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:40) Jake Sanderson: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:44) Tim Stützle: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 12:51) Brady Tkachuk: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:52) Claude Giroux: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:26) Claude Giroux: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 14:43) Sam Bennett: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 15:05) Lars Eller: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 15:59) Jake Sanderson: backhand, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:51) Sam Reinhart: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 18:58) Brad Marchand: GOAL, backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 6:08) Evan Rodrigues: GOAL, snap, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 9:54) Shane Pinto: GOAL, wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 17:33) Aaron Ekblad: GOAL, snap, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 0:35) Anton Lundell: GOAL, tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 18:28) Mackie Samoskevich: GOAL, wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 5:29) Sam Reinhart: GOAL, wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 11:14) Shane Pinto: GOAL, wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 17:35)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Ottawa Senators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
18 Tim Stützle 000 -1 30.21 3118:50
24 Dylan Cozens 000 0 50.12 5017:23
20 Fabian Zetterlund 000 0 20.08 3017:16
8 Brady Tkachuk 000 0 70.17 1016:34
12 Shane Pinto 202 +1 60.63 0116:21
22 Michael Amadio 000 -1 00.00 0015:09
16 David Perron 000 0 00.00 1015:08
71 Ridly Greig 011 0 10.00 0014:37
28 Claude Giroux 011 0 40.10 0013:28
20 Lars Eller 000 -1 10.04 3012:35
21 Nick Cousins 000 -1 00.00 2111:04
23 Kurtis MacDermid 000 0 10.00 1206:47
Defense
85 Jake Sanderson 000 -1 40.09 0022:25
2 Artem Zub 000 -2 20.06 3420:57
72 Thomas Chabot 000 0 30.10 0220:41
4 Nick Jensen 000 +1 30.04 4119:06
33 Nikolas Matinpalo 000 0 30.01 1516:45
73 Donovan Sebrango 000 0 30.06 0016:09
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Linus Ullmark 27621 .778 2.96 -3.04

Florida Panthers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
13 Sam Reinhart 101 +1 50.42 1019:19
63 Brad Marchand 112 0 40.25 1016:57
9 Sam Bennett 000 -2 30.26 2016:47
15 Anton Lundell 112 +1 30.27 0116:29
17 Evan Rodrigues 101 +2 40.16 0016:11
27 Eetu Luostarinen 000 +1 20.02 1015:31
71 Luke Kunin 000 0 20.31 1215:07
23 Carter Verhaeghe 011 0 50.40 0014:55
11 Mackie Samoskevich 101 +1 20.32 2012:47
70 Jesper Boqvist 000 0 40.04 4012:23
18 A.J. Greer 000 -1 10.00 5012:07
12 Jonah Gadjovich 000 0 10.00 5010:17
Defense
5 Aaron Ekblad 112 +1 40.22 2022:55
3 Seth Jones 022 -1 40.19 1020:45
42 Gustav Forsling 022 +1 20.00 0219:53
2 Jeff Petry 011 +1 20.00 1118:45
26 Uvis Balinskis 000 +1 10.00 1017:40
77 Niko Mikkola 000 -1 50.09 1117:12
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Sergei Bobrovsky 28226 .929 1.72 -0.28

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Ottawa Senators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
12 Shane Pinto C +2.51 +1.50 +0.41 +0.41 0.00 +0.06 +0.13 — 16:21
28 Claude Giroux R +0.91 +0.70 +0.07 +0.13 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 13:28
71 Ridly Greig C +0.38 +0.70 0.00 -0.12 -0.15 -0.01 -0.04 — 14:37
57 David Perron L +0.27 0.00 0.00 +0.12 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 15:08
33 Nikolas Matinpalo D +0.26 0.00 +0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 +0.25 — 16:45
7 Brady Tkachuk L +0.20 0.00 +0.11 +0.20 -0.15 +0.05 -0.02 — 16:34
3 Nick Jensen D +0.14 0.00 +0.03 +0.13 0.00 0.00 -0.01 — 19:06
20 Fabian Zetterlund L +0.09 0.00 +0.05 +0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 17:16
72 Thomas Chabot D -0.11 0.00 +0.06 0.00 -0.30 0.00 +0.12 — 20:41
24 Dylan Cozens C -0.13 0.00 +0.08 -0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:23
18 Tim Stützle C -0.14 0.00 +0.14 -0.36 0.00 +0.07 +0.01 — 18:50
37 Donovan Sebrango D -0.19 0.00 +0.04 -0.20 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:09
22 Michael Amadio R -0.27 0.00 0.00 -0.29 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 15:09
85 Jake Sanderson D -0.27 0.00 +0.06 -0.31 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 22:25
23 Kurtis MacDermid L -0.28 0.00 0.00 -0.36 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 6:47
2 Artem Zub D -0.47 0.00 +0.04 -0.64 0.00 0.00 +0.14 — 20:57
89 Lars Eller C -0.51 0.00 +0.03 -0.55 0.00 +0.03 -0.02 — 12:35
21 Nick Cousins C -0.52 0.00 0.00 -0.55 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 11:04
35 Linus Ullmark G -3.04 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -3.04 59:59

Florida Panthers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
42 Gustav Forsling D +1.98 +1.25 0.00 +0.61 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 19:53
5 Aaron Ekblad D +1.94 +1.45 +0.14 +0.37 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 22:55
15 Anton Lundell C +1.87 +1.45 +0.18 +0.34 0.00 -0.06 -0.03 — 16:29
17 Evan Rodrigues C +1.51 +0.75 +0.11 +0.50 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 16:11
13 Sam Reinhart C +1.48 +0.75 +0.28 +0.50 0.00 -0.05 0.00 — 19:19
63 Brad Marchand L +1.36 +1.45 +0.17 -0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:57
3 Seth Jones D +1.14 +1.25 +0.12 -0.21 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 20:45
27 Eetu Luostarinen C +1.05 0.00 +0.01 +0.74 +0.30 0.00 0.00 — 15:31
11 Mackie Samoskevich R +1.04 +0.75 +0.21 +0.22 -0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 12:47
23 Carter Verhaeghe C +0.80 +0.55 +0.26 -0.06 0.00 -0.01 +0.06 — 14:55
2 Jeff Petry D +0.62 +0.70 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.00 -0.01 — 18:45
71 Luke Kunin C +0.53 0.00 +0.20 +0.28 0.00 -0.05 +0.10 — 15:07
26 Uvis Balinskis D +0.33 0.00 0.00 +0.35 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:40
70 Jesper Boqvist C +0.21 0.00 +0.03 +0.21 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 12:23
77 Niko Mikkola D +0.21 0.00 +0.06 -0.03 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 17:12
12 Jonah Gadjovich L 0.00 0.00 0.00 +0.02 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 10:17
72 Sergei Bobrovsky G -0.28 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.28 60:00
10 A.J. Greer L -0.39 0.00 0.00 -0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:07
9 Sam Bennett C -0.49 0.00 +0.17 -0.57 0.00 -0.01 -0.08 — 16:47

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.