Florida Panthers
Atlantic Division, Eastern Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 29 | 25 | 3 | 61 | 174 | 191 | -17 | 53.5% |
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Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Feb 20, 2026
Analysis
Summary
The Florida Panthers are on the fringes of the Eastern Conference playoff picture, sitting 13th with a 5.8% chance to qualify and essentially no path to a division title. Their projected finish of 87.9 points leaves them well short of the expected 96.7-point cutoff, meaning they need a dramatic surge to stay relevant.
Record and Recent Performance
Florida’s 29-25-3 record translates to 61 points through 57 games and a middling 53.5% points percentage, dragged down by a -17 goal differential with 191 goals against. Their team strength rating of 46.7% ranks near the bottom of the conference race, and a recent form of just 40.0% suggests they have not been playing at the level needed to make up ground. Simply put, the Panthers have been closer to a sub-.500 team than a playoff-caliber one for much of the season.
The Competition
The Panthers have multiple teams to leapfrog, starting with the New York Islanders at the cutline with 69 points and a projected 96.7 finish, followed closely by Boston, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Montreal, all projecting near or above 98 points. Even teams behind the Islanders like Columbus project to 96.0 points, while Washington and Ottawa remain closer but still ahead of Florida in both standings and projections. With Florida already 8 points behind the cutoff and several stronger teams in between, the math is unforgiving.
Remaining Schedule
Florida has 25 games left, but the slate is road-heavy with 15 away games compared to 10 at home, a concern given their weaker 45.3% road strength. The opponent strength of 53.4% is roughly league average, so there is no easy stretch to exploit, and their expected remaining points total of 26.9 reflects that reality. Even playing to expectation leaves them nearly nine points shy of the projected playoff bar.
Outlook
For the Panthers to reach the postseason, they would need a sustained run well above their season-long performance while several competitors stumble simultaneously. With low underlying strength, shaky recent form, and limited schedule help, Florida’s playoff hopes are more theoretical than realistic, making this season increasingly about evaluating pieces rather than chasing a berth.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has already reached that threshold. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 5.7% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 85–91 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 95–97 points. Finishes above the cutline in 7.4% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Eastern Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 72 | 57 | 25 | 58.5% | 65.0% | 54.7% | 101.2 | 87.5% | |
| 5 | 70 | 57 | 25 | 59.0% | 65.0% | 54.5% | 99.3 | 81.8% | |
| 6 | 70 | 56 | 26 | 62.9% | 80.0% | 55.4% | 101.2 | 91.3% | |
| 7 | 69 | 57 | 25 | 59.9% | 75.0% | 56.0% | 97.7 | 70.1% | |
| 8 | 69 | 58 | 24 | 55.9% | 60.0% | 54.0% | 96.6 | 63.9% | |
| 9 | 65 | 59 | 23 | 54.2% | 55.0% | 53.5% | 91.2 | 20.4% | |
| 10 | 65 | 56 | 26 | 60.7% | 90.0% | 54.6% | 95.9 | 56.3% | |
| 11 | 63 | 57 | 25 | 55.5% | 65.0% | 53.8% | 91.8 | 20.4% | |
| 12 | 63 | 57 | 25 | 49.8% | 45.0% | 54.3% | 89.8 | 9.1% | |
| 13 | 61 | 57 | 25 | 46.7% | 40.0% | 53.4% | 87.9 | 5.7% | |
| 14 | 61 | 56 | 26 | 48.5% | 45.0% | 54.4% | 89.2 | 9.6% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46.7% | 47.8% | 45.3% | 45.4% | 40.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Sam Reinhart | C | 57 | 27 | 28 | 55 | -16 | 0 | 56 | 39 | 21:24 | |
| 63 | Brad Marchand | L | 46 | 25 | 25 | 50 | -15 | 0 | 34 | 16 | 18:11 | |
| 9 | Sam Bennett | C | 57 | 19 | 23 | 42 | -11 | 0 | 105 | 24 | 18:28 | |
| 23 | Carter Verhaeghe | C | 56 | 16 | 26 | 42 | -7 | 0 | 51 | 17 | 17:37 | |
| 15 | Anton Lundell | C | 54 | 16 | 24 | 40 | -9 | 0 | 64 | 33 | 19:17 | |
| 17 | Evan Rodrigues | C | 56 | 10 | 15 | 25 | -12 | 0 | 56 | 22 | 17:15 | |
| 3 | Seth Jones | D | 40 | 6 | 18 | 24 | -2 | 0 | 38 | 47 | 23:29 | |
| 27 | Eetu Luostarinen | C | 49 | 7 | 16 | 23 | +1 | 0 | 99 | 38 | 16:49 | |
| 5 | Aaron Ekblad | D | 55 | 3 | 19 | 22 | -10 | 0 | 67 | 88 | 22:24 | |
| 10 | A.J. Greer | L | 57 | 11 | 10 | 21 | +7 | 0 | 145 | 20 | 11:46 | |
| 11 | Mackie Samoskevich | R | 55 | 6 | 15 | 21 | -8 | 0 | 101 | 21 | 14:14 | |
| 42 | Gustav Forsling | D | 57 | 2 | 19 | 21 | -7 | 0 | 38 | 64 | 22:40 | |
| 26 | Uvis Balinskis | D | 48 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -10 | 0 | 63 | 36 | 16:25 | |
| 19 | Matthew Tkachuk | L | 10 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -7 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 18:40 | |
| 70 | Jesper Boqvist | C | 51 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -7 | 0 | 100 | 24 | 10:50 | |
| 77 | Niko Mikkola | D | 57 | 1 | 7 | 8 | +4 | 0 | 97 | 66 | 20:18 | |
| 2 | Jeff Petry | D | 55 | 0 | 8 | 8 | -9 | 0 | 53 | 54 | 14:51 | |
| 79 | Cole Schwindt | C | 21 | 3 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 24 | 7 | 8:54 | |
| 95 | Sandis Vilmanis | L | 14 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 3 | 10:27 | |
| 71 | Luke Kunin | C | 43 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 0 | 80 | 32 | 8:38 | |
| 18 | Noah Gregor | L | 24 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 0 | 27 | 7 | 8:04 | |
| 12 | Jonah Gadjovich | L | 10 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 30 | 3 | 7:56 | |
| 6 | Donovan Sebrango | D | 17 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 29 | 13 | 12:23 | |
| 96 | Mikulas Hovorka | D | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:27 | |
| 7 | Dmitry Kulikov | D | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10:46 | |
| 53 | Jack Studnicka | C | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 | 0 | 19 | 6 | 7:04 | |
| 22 | Tobias Bjornfot | D | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8:27 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 05 | @ TBL | 6 - 1 | L |
| Feb 04 | vs BOS | 5 - 4 | W (OT/SO) |
| Feb 02 | vs BUF | 3 - 5 | L |
| Jan 31 | vs WPG | 1 - 2 | L |
| Jan 29 | @ STL | 5 - 4 | L |
| Jan 27 | vs UTA | 3 - 4 | L |
| Jan 25 | @ CHI | 1 - 5 | W |
| Jan 24 | @ MIN | 3 - 4 | W (OT/SO) |
| Jan 22 | @ WPG | 1 - 2 | W (OT/SO) |
| Jan 19 | vs SJS | 1 - 4 | L |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 19:00 | vs Toronto Maple Leafs | Home | 49.8% | 1.17 | FLA (52%) |
| Feb 27, 19:00 | vs Buffalo Sabres | Home | 59.0% | 1.07 | BUF (53%) |
| Mar 01, 18:30 | @ New York Islanders | Away | 55.9% | 1.02 | NYI (56%) |
| Mar 03, 19:00 | @ New Jersey Devils | Away | 43.8% | 1.13 | FLA (50%) |
| Mar 05, 19:00 | @ Columbus Blue Jackets | Away | 60.7% | 0.96 | CBJ (59%) |
| Mar 06, 19:00 | @ Detroit Red Wings | Away | 55.5% | 1.02 | DET (56%) |
| Mar 10, 19:00 | vs Detroit Red Wings | Home | 55.5% | 1.06 | DET (54%) |
| Mar 12, 19:00 | vs Columbus Blue Jackets | Home | 60.7% | 1.07 | CBJ (53%) |
| Mar 15, 20:00 | @ Seattle Kraken | Away | 53.4% | 1.02 | SEA (56%) |
| Mar 17, 22:00 | @ Vancouver Canucks | Away | 32.8% | 1.32 | FLA (61%) |
| Total Expected (Next 10 games): | 10.8 pts | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.