OTT

Ottawa Senators

Atlantic Division, Eastern Conference

Current Standings

GP W L OTL PTS GF GA DIFF PTS % Last 10
77 40 27 10 90 258 238 +20 58.4%

Playoff Probabilities

74.0%
Make Playoffs
0.0%
Win Division
0.0%
Win Conference
3.6%
Win Stanley Cup

Based on 100,000 simulations run on Apr 07, 2026

Likely First-Round Opponents

Opponent Probability Likelihood
CAR Carolina Hurricanes 44.6%
TBL Tampa Bay Lightning 22.9%
MTL Montréal Canadiens 4.8%
BUF Buffalo Sabres 1.6%

Probabilities sum to 74.0% (= playoff probability). Remaining 26.0% = miss playoffs.

Analysis

Summary

The Ottawa Senators enter the final week of the regular season with a 74.0% chance of making the playoffs, sitting right on the edge of the Eastern Conference wild-card picture. Projected to finish with 96 points, they’re narrowly above the estimated cutoff of 95.6, but there’s very little margin for error with five games remaining.

Record and Recent Performance

At 40-27-10 (90 points in 77 games), Ottawa owns a 58.4% points percentage and a +20 goal differential (258 GF, 238 GA), solid indicators of a legitimate playoff-caliber team. Their overall team strength rating of 57.5% aligns closely with that profile, and they’ve been notably better at home (59.6%) than on the road (55.2%). Encouragingly, their recent form sits at 65.0%, suggesting they’ve been playing above their season baseline down the stretch — a key factor with such a tight race.

The Competition

Montreal (100 points) and Pittsburgh (96) have effectively locked up spots, while Boston (95) is close behind and highly likely to clinch. That leaves Ottawa battling directly with Philadelphia (90 points, 62.8% playoff odds) for the final spot, with the Islanders (89), Red Wings (88), Blue Jackets (88), and Capitals (87) still mathematically alive but needing strong finishes. The Senators are projected one-tenth of a point above Philadelphia (96.0 to 95.6), illustrating how razor-thin the gap is; even a single overtime loss versus regulation loss could swing the race.

Remaining Schedule

Ottawa has five games left, including three at home, and faces opponents with a combined strength of 51.9%, slightly below the league average of 53.0%. The schedule grades out as average overall, and models expect about 6.0 points from the final 10 available, which would land them right at 96 points. Hitting that projection likely secures a berth, but falling short — say, earning only four or five points — would open the door for Philadelphia or a surging chaser.

Outlook

The Senators control their fate but not by much. With strong recent play and a home-heavy, manageable schedule, they’re in a favorable position, yet the slim projected cushion means scoreboard-watching will be unavoidable. If they maintain their current form and secure at least six more points, Ottawa should return to the playoffs — but anything less turns the final week into a coin flip.

Generated Apr 06, 2026 7:00 AM — AI-generated, may contain inaccuracies

Required Win Percentage for Playoffs

37.6%
Coin Flip (50%)
Even odds
72.7%
Likely (75%)
Probable scenario
—
Near-Certain (95%)
Safe scenario

Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has mathematically clinched a playoff spot. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.

Playoff Probability Breakdown

Understanding the factors that drive the 74.0% playoff probability

📊 Schedule Context

Remaining Games: 3 home, 2 away (60% home)
Schedule Balance: Home-Heavy ✓
Opponent Strength: 51.9% (vs 53.0% avg)
Schedule Difficulty: Average

🎯 Key Factors

Conference Position: 7 in Eastern
Projected Points: 96.0 pts
Expected Points (Remaining): 6.0 pts
Based on: 100,000 simulations

🏒 Playoff Picture

8th Place Cutoff: ~95.6 pts (projected)
Points Gap: 0.4 pts above cutoff ✓
Current Points: 90 pts

Analysis

✓ Home-heavy schedule (3 home, 2 away) provides advantage
In the playoff race - each game matters significantly
Projected to finish near the cutoff line (0.4 pts from 8th place)

Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.

Points Distribution vs. Cutline

Projected to finish with 94–98 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 95–96 points. Finishes above the cutline in 77.3% of simulations.

90 100
Team points Playoff cutline (8th place) Cutline middle 50% range

Team Projection

Low (10th pctile): 93 pts
Median (50th): 96 pts
High (90th pctile): 98 pts

Playoff Cutline

Low (10th pctile): 94 pts
Median (50th): 96 pts
High (90th pctile): 97 pts

Playoff Race — Eastern Conference

# Team PTS GP Left STR L10 SOS Proj PTS Playoff %
4
MTL
100 77 5 63.1% 80.0% 53.2% 106.1 100.0%
5
PIT
96 78 4 58.3% 60.0% 53.5% 100.6 100.0%
6
BOS
95 78 4 58.2% 65.0% 58.4% 99.5 98.5%
7
OTT
90 77 5 57.5% 65.0% 51.9% 96.0 74.0%
8
PHI
90 77 5 56.2% 70.0% 55.8% 95.6 62.7%
9
NYI
89 78 4 47.8% 30.0% 57.9% 93.3 22.9%
10
DET
88 77 5 49.2% 40.0% 54.1% 93.5 12.8%
11
CBJ
88 77 5 49.5% 35.0% 57.2% 93.4 24.1%
12
WSH
87 78 4 55.6% 65.0% 53.3% 91.3 4.9%

Yesterday's Impact

Result Impact
OTT 6 - CAR 3 OTT played
+13.3%
DET 4 - MIN 5
+5.7%
NYR 8 - WSH 1
+1.7%
PHI 2 - BOS 1 (OT)
-1.4%
Net: +19.3%

Team Strength Metrics

Overall Strength Home Strength Away Strength Pythagorean Win % Recent Form
57.5% 59.6% 55.2% 54.0% 65.0%

Player Statistics

# Player Pos GP G A PTS +/- SOG HIT BLK TOI Performance
18 Tim Stützle C 77 33 46 79 +7 0 125 42 20:19
19 Drake Batherson R 74 31 33 64 -6 0 116 20 17:24
24 Dylan Cozens C 77 28 27 55 -8 0 205 24 17:02
7 Brady Tkachuk L 57 21 32 53 +3 0 150 18 17:04
85 Jake Sanderson D 64 11 39 50 +10 0 28 122 24:50
28 Claude Giroux R 77 13 33 46 +19 0 65 26 16:22
12 Shane Pinto C 67 21 21 42 +2 0 87 48 18:44
71 Ridly Greig C 72 12 21 33 +11 0 89 50 16:35
22 Michael Amadio R 77 13 19 32 +8 0 99 47 16:03
72 Thomas Chabot D 55 7 23 30 +6 0 36 109 22:34
20 Fabian Zetterlund L 77 13 15 28 -3 0 145 29 12:57
10 Jordan Spence D 68 6 22 28 +14 0 50 56 18:27
2 Artem Zub D 76 4 23 27 +15 0 65 109 20:34
57 David Perron → DET L 49 10 15 25 +2 0 64 18 13:26
21 Nick Cousins C 76 9 13 22 +7 0 165 39 11:19
43 Tyler Kleven D 70 3 15 18 +2 0 126 95 17:19
3 Nick Jensen D 61 4 13 17 -2 0 39 66 17:00
89 Lars Eller C 63 5 9 14 +4 0 47 32 11:22
83 Stephen Halliday C 28 4 7 11 +2 0 28 8 8:11
37 Warren Foegele ← LAK L 16 5 2 7 +4 0 16 7 11:19
33 Nikolas Matinpalo D 45 0 5 5 -2 0 43 50 15:27
58 Carter Yakemchuk D 4 1 1 2 -1 0 0 5 14:32
60 Lassi Thomson D 6 0 2 2 +4 0 3 5 13:30
23 Kurtis MacDermid L 17 0 1 1 -4 0 13 5 3:54
6 Dennis Gilbert D 5 0 1 1 +1 0 5 11 10:52
53 Xavier Bourgault R 1 0 0 0 -1 0 2 0 4:05
6 Donovan Sebrango → FLA D 2 0 0 0 -1 0 1 0 15:13
5 Cameron Crotty D 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 14:45
56 Jorian Donovan D 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 7:02

Recent Games (Last 10)

Date Opponent Score Result
Apr 05 vs CAR 6 - 3 W
Apr 04 vs MIN 1 - 4 L
Apr 02 vs BUF 4 - 1 W
Mar 31 @ FLA 6 - 3 L
Mar 28 @ TBL 4 - 2 L
Mar 26 vs PIT 3 - 4 L (OT/SO)
Mar 24 @ DET 2 - 3 W
Mar 23 @ NYR 1 - 2 W
Mar 21 vs TOR 5 - 2 W
Mar 19 vs NYI 3 - 2 W

Upcoming Games

Date Opponent Location Opp Strength Exp Pts Playoff Swing Predicted Winner
Apr 07, 19:00 vs Tampa Bay Lightning Home 67.8% 1.07 23.5% TBL (53%)
Apr 09, 19:00 vs Florida Panthers Home 44.8% 1.33 - OTT (62%)
Apr 11, 13:00 @ New York Islanders Away 47.8% 1.17 - OTT (53%)
Apr 12, 19:00 @ New Jersey Devils Away 52.4% 1.13 - OTT (50%)
Apr 15, 19:30 vs Toronto Maple Leafs Home 47.0% 1.29 - OTT (59%)
Averages (Next 5 games): 6.0 pts 6.6%

Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.