Ottawa Senators
Atlantic Division, Eastern Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 28 | 22 | 7 | 63 | 191 | 184 | +7 | 55.3% |
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Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Feb 20, 2026
Analysis
Summary
The Ottawa Senators are on the fringe of the Eastern Conference playoff race with a 20.3% chance of qualifying, needing a strong finish to close a meaningful gap. With a projected 91.8 points against an estimated cutoff of 96.7, Ottawa likely needs to outperform its baseline projection to sneak into a wild-card spot.
Record and Recent Performance
Ottawa sits at 28-22-7 through 57 games, good for 63 points and a 55.3% points percentage, which places them 11th in the conference standings. Their +7 goal differential with 191 goals for and 184 against suggests a competitive but not dominant profile, while a team strength rating of 55.5% aligns closely with that output. The Senators’ recent form has been encouraging at 65.0%, indicating they have played better than their season-long average and are at least trending in the right direction as the stretch run begins.
The Competition
The challenge for Ottawa is the number of teams they must leapfrog, starting with the New York Islanders at the cutline with 69 points and a 64.2% playoff probability. Boston, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Montreal are all ahead with projected totals between 97.7 and 101.2 points, making them difficult targets without a sustained surge. Even Washington at 65 points and Columbus at 65 points project similarly or better than Ottawa, meaning the Senators must not only gain ground but also hope for multiple teams ahead of them to stumble.
Remaining Schedule
The Senators have 25 games remaining, split almost evenly between 13 at home and 12 on the road, with a balanced schedule and average difficulty. Their opponents’ combined strength of 53.8% is close to league average, suggesting no clear scheduling advantage to exploit. Ottawa is expected to earn about 28.8 more points, which would leave them short of the projected playoff cutoff unless they can outperform expectations by several wins.
Outlook
Ottawa’s path to the playoffs is narrow but not impossible, hinging on continued strong play and a few favorable breaks in the standings. To raise their odds meaningfully above 20.3%, the Senators likely need to play at a near top-tier pace over the final two months and directly beat teams like the Islanders, Bruins, and Blue Jackets. Without that kind of push, their season is more likely to end just outside the playoff picture than inside it.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has already reached that threshold. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 20.4% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 89–95 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 95–97 points. Finishes above the cutline in 25.6% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Eastern Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 72 | 57 | 25 | 58.5% | 65.0% | 54.7% | 101.2 | 87.5% | |
| 5 | 70 | 57 | 25 | 59.0% | 65.0% | 54.5% | 99.3 | 81.8% | |
| 6 | 70 | 56 | 26 | 62.9% | 80.0% | 55.4% | 101.2 | 91.3% | |
| 7 | 69 | 57 | 25 | 59.9% | 75.0% | 56.0% | 97.7 | 70.1% | |
| 8 | 69 | 58 | 24 | 55.9% | 60.0% | 54.0% | 96.6 | 63.9% | |
| 9 | 65 | 59 | 23 | 54.2% | 55.0% | 53.5% | 91.2 | 20.4% | |
| 10 | 65 | 56 | 26 | 60.7% | 90.0% | 54.6% | 95.9 | 56.3% | |
| 11 | 63 | 57 | 25 | 55.5% | 65.0% | 53.8% | 91.8 | 20.4% | |
| 12 | 63 | 57 | 25 | 49.8% | 45.0% | 54.3% | 89.8 | 9.1% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55.5% | 57.4% | 53.5% | 51.9% | 65.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Tim Stützle | C | 57 | 28 | 33 | 61 | +6 | 0 | 89 | 38 | 20:31 | |
| 19 | Drake Batherson | R | 54 | 19 | 29 | 48 | -4 | 0 | 78 | 16 | 17:46 | |
| 85 | Jake Sanderson | D | 57 | 11 | 36 | 47 | +7 | 0 | 27 | 110 | 25:01 | |
| 24 | Dylan Cozens | C | 57 | 19 | 24 | 43 | -13 | 0 | 148 | 18 | 17:10 | |
| 28 | Claude Giroux | R | 57 | 11 | 29 | 40 | +15 | 0 | 52 | 22 | 17:05 | |
| 7 | Brady Tkachuk | L | 37 | 13 | 23 | 36 | -4 | 0 | 99 | 10 | 17:04 | |
| 12 | Shane Pinto | C | 47 | 15 | 14 | 29 | +2 | 0 | 62 | 29 | 18:46 | |
| 57 | David Perron | L | 49 | 10 | 15 | 25 | +2 | 0 | 64 | 18 | 13:26 | |
| 71 | Ridly Greig | C | 52 | 9 | 16 | 25 | +7 | 0 | 64 | 35 | 16:40 | |
| 20 | Fabian Zetterlund | L | 57 | 12 | 10 | 22 | -7 | 0 | 105 | 25 | 13:38 | |
| 22 | Michael Amadio | R | 57 | 8 | 14 | 22 | +4 | 0 | 79 | 31 | 15:45 | |
| 72 | Thomas Chabot | D | 42 | 5 | 16 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 84 | 21:50 | |
| 10 | Jordan Spence | D | 48 | 4 | 15 | 19 | +15 | 0 | 34 | 37 | 17:14 | |
| 2 | Artem Zub | D | 56 | 4 | 14 | 18 | +12 | 0 | 54 | 79 | 20:09 | |
| 21 | Nick Cousins | C | 56 | 8 | 8 | 16 | +8 | 0 | 116 | 28 | 10:48 | |
| 3 | Nick Jensen | D | 54 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -10 | 0 | 34 | 60 | 16:52 | |
| 83 | Stephen Halliday | C | 25 | 4 | 7 | 11 | +1 | 0 | 28 | 7 | 8:08 | |
| 43 | Tyler Kleven | D | 52 | 1 | 10 | 11 | -2 | 0 | 91 | 76 | 16:37 | |
| 89 | Lars Eller | C | 43 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 24 | 11:55 | |
| 33 | Nikolas Matinpalo | D | 30 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 33 | 15:13 | |
| 23 | Kurtis MacDermid | L | 16 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 13 | 5 | 4:01 | |
| 6 | Donovan Sebrango → FLA | D | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:13 | |
| 53 | Xavier Bourgault | R | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4:05 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 05 | @ PHI | 1 - 2 | W (OT/SO) |
| Feb 03 | @ CAR | 4 - 3 | L |
| Feb 02 | @ PIT | 2 - 3 | W |
| Jan 31 | vs NJD | 4 - 1 | W |
| Jan 28 | vs COL | 5 - 2 | W |
| Jan 25 | vs VGK | 7 - 1 | W |
| Jan 24 | vs CAR | 1 - 4 | L |
| Jan 22 | @ NSH | 5 - 3 | L |
| Jan 20 | @ CBJ | 1 - 4 | W |
| Jan 18 | @ DET | 4 - 3 | L (OT/SO) |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 19:00 | vs Detroit Red Wings | Home | 55.5% | 1.14 | OTT (51%) |
| Feb 28, 19:00 | @ Toronto Maple Leafs | Away | 49.8% | 1.12 | TOR (50%) |
| Mar 03, 21:00 | @ Edmonton Oilers | Away | 52.1% | 1.11 | EDM (51%) |
| Mar 05, 21:00 | @ Calgary Flames | Away | 44.6% | 1.12 | CGY (50%) |
| Mar 07, 22:00 | @ Seattle Kraken | Away | 53.4% | 1.09 | SEA (52%) |
| Mar 09, 21:00 | @ Vancouver Canucks | Away | 32.8% | 1.39 | OTT (65%) |
| Mar 11, 19:30 | vs Montréal Canadiens | Home | 58.5% | 1.09 | MTL (52%) |
| Mar 14, 13:00 | vs Anaheim Ducks | Home | 56.6% | 1.20 | OTT (54%) |
| Mar 15, 17:00 | vs San Jose Sharks | Home | 46.8% | 1.27 | OTT (58%) |
| Mar 18, 19:30 | @ Washington Capitals | Away | 54.2% | 1.08 | WSH (53%) |
| Total Expected (Next 10 games): | 11.6 pts | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.