Philadelphia FlyersPHI 3–4 Final/OT Carolina HurricanesCAR

Saturday, October 11, 2025

Final/OT	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T	SOG
Philadelphia FlyersPHI	1	1	1	0	3	23
Carolina HurricanesCAR	0	3	0	1	4	39

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
19:38	PHI	Owen Tippett (1)PP Travis Konecny (1), Trevor Zegras (1) · wrist xG 0.41	1–0
2nd Period
3:46	CAR	Logan Stankoven (1) Jackson Blake (2), Alexander Nikishin (2) · snap xG 0.36	1–1 ▶
6:18	PHI	Bobby Brink (1) Noah Cates (1), Nikita Grebenkin (1) · snap xG 0.08	2–1 ▶
9:07	CAR	Taylor Hall (2) Eric Robinson (1) · backhand xG 0.18	2–2 ▶
18:30	CAR	Jordan Staal (1) Jordan Martinook (2) · snap xG 0.15	2–3 ▶
3rd Period
16:00	PHI	Travis Sanheim (1) Bobby Brink (1), Tyson Foerster (2) · snap xG 0.08	3–3 ▶
Overtime
4:43	CAR	Seth Jarvis (3) Sebastian Aho (3), Shayne Gostisbehere (3) · slap xG 0.17	3–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

PHI 22%Deserve to win78% CAR

PHI		CAR
3.35	Expected goals	5.53
3	Goals (no shootout)	4
2.27	Expected goals, 5 on 5	3.01
52	Shot attempts	87
36	Unblocked attempts	65
23	Shots on goal	39

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
12:00	CAR	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced PHI 1.30–0.10 In xG over 10 minutes, 2:30 to 12:30 of the 1st; neither team scored
2nd Period
2:16	PHI	Goalie	Goalie · Ersson +2.0 goals saved 0 goals on 2.03 xG, 16 shots on goal
15:40	PHI	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced CAR 1.50–0.23 In xG over 10 minutes, 7:50 to 17:50 of the 2nd; goals 0–1
3rd Period
5:40	CAR	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced PHI 1.54–0.10 In xG over 10 minutes, 16:30 of the 2nd to 6:30 of the 3rd; goals 1–0

Shot map

PHI shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ CAR shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Philadelphia Flyers

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
14	Sean Couturier	0	0	0	-2	2	0.02	2	2	20:05
46	Trevor Zegras	0	1	1	0	3	0.06	0	0	19:22
22	Christian Dvorak	0	0	0	0	3	0.22	1	1	18:41
74	Owen Tippett	1	0	1	0	5	0.47	2	1	18:09
10	Bobby Brink	1	1	2	0	6	0.81	2	0	17:44
71	Tyson Foerster	0	1	1	+1	7	0.41	1	1	17:37
11	Travis Konecny	0	1	1	-1	4	0.38	1	2	16:49
27	Noah Cates	0	1	1	+1	7	0.59	1	0	16:20
39	Matvei Michkov	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	13:27
21	Garnet Hathaway	0	0	0	-1	1	0.20	7	1	10:32
17	Nikita Grebenkin	0	1	1	-1	2	0.06	1	1	08:36
Defense
6	Travis Sanheim	1	0	1	-1	4	0.13	0	4	29:34
9	Jamie Drysdale	0	0	0	-1	2	0.00	1	1	23:08
24	Nick Seeler	0	0	0	-1	2	0.00	6	2	22:56
47	Noah Juulsen	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0	3	14:22

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Samuel Ersson	39	4	35	.897	5.53	+1.53

Carolina Hurricanes

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
24	Seth Jarvis	1	0	1	0	7	0.64	0	1	20:50
20	Sebastian Aho	0	1	1	0	6	0.54	0	0	20:35
27	Nikolaj Ehlers	0	0	0	-1	6	0.31	0	1	19:59
53	Jackson Blake	0	1	1	+1	9	1.05	2	1	19:27
22	Logan Stankoven	1	0	1	+1	5	0.46	0	1	18:19
37	Andrei Svechnikov	0	0	0	+1	6	0.56	1	0	16:56
11	Jordan Staal	1	0	1	+1	4	0.20	1	0	14:50
48	Jordan Martinook	0	1	1	+1	3	0.30	6	0	13:42
71	Taylor Hall	1	0	1	0	3	0.41	1	0	13:28
28	William Carrier	0	0	0	+1	3	0.30	4	0	11:22
82	Jesperi Kotkaniemi	0	0	0	0	1	0.10	0	0	10:26
50	Eric Robinson	0	1	1	0	2	0.12	1	0	07:56
Defense
19	K'Andre Miller	0	0	0	+1	6	0.11	0	3	25:56
26	Sean Walker	0	0	0	-1	6	0.02	3	1	23:00
4	Shayne Gostisbehere	0	1	1	+2	4	0.10	1	2	20:25
5	Jalen Chatfield	0	0	0	+1	4	0.04	0	2	19:15
21	Alexander Nikishin	0	1	1	0	4	0.19	4	1	16:48
74	Jaccob Slavin	0	0	0	0	8	0.08	0	0	16:48

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Frederik Andersen	23	3	20	.870	3.35	+0.35

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Philadelphia Flyers

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
10 Bobby Brink R	+1.99	+1.45	+0.53	-0.11	+0.15	-0.01	-0.02	—	17:44
33 Samuel Ersson G	+1.53	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.53	64:43
27 Noah Cates L	+1.25	+0.70	+0.38	+0.11	+0.15	-0.07	-0.02	—	16:20
74 Owen Tippett R	+0.91	+0.75	+0.31	-0.16	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	18:09
71 Tyson Foerster R	+0.84	+0.55	+0.27	-0.03	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	17:37
6 Travis Sanheim D	+0.71	+0.75	+0.08	-0.34	0.00	0.00	+0.22	—	29:34
46 Trevor Zegras C	+0.42	+0.55	+0.04	-0.15	0.00	+0.01	-0.02	—	19:22
29 Nikita Grebenkin R	+0.32	+0.55	+0.04	-0.26	0.00	0.00	-0.01	—	8:36
11 Travis Konecny R	+0.28	+0.70	+0.25	-0.57	-0.15	-0.01	+0.06	—	16:49
47 Noah Juulsen D	+0.25	0.00	0.00	+0.08	0.00	0.00	+0.17	—	14:22
13 Adam Ginning D	+0.13	0.00	0.00	+0.08	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	14:21
22 Christian Dvorak C	+0.09	0.00	+0.14	-0.09	0.00	+0.01	+0.03	—	18:41
17 Jett Luchanko C	-0.07	0.00	0.00	-0.05	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	7:40
19 Garnet Hathaway R	-0.07	0.00	+0.13	-0.25	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	10:32
14 Sean Couturier C	-0.13	0.00	+0.01	-0.27	0.00	+0.02	+0.10	—	20:05
5 Egor Zamula D	-0.25	0.00	0.00	-0.15	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	16:46
9 Jamie Drysdale D	-0.50	0.00	0.00	-0.53	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	23:08
39 Matvei Michkov R	-0.88	0.00	0.00	-0.73	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	13:27
24 Nick Seeler D	-1.29	0.00	0.00	-1.37	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	22:56

Carolina Hurricanes

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
53 Jackson Blake R	+2.23	+0.70	+0.68	+0.50	+0.30	0.00	+0.05	—	19:27
4 Shayne Gostisbehere D	+2.08	+0.55	+0.07	+1.36	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	20:25
22 Logan Stankoven C	+1.98	+0.75	+0.30	+0.86	0.00	+0.02	+0.05	—	18:19
11 Jordan Staal C	+1.84	+0.75	+0.13	+0.94	0.00	+0.02	0.00	—	14:50
48 Jordan Martinook L	+1.74	+0.70	+0.19	+0.85	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:42
37 Andrei Svechnikov R	+1.39	0.00	+0.37	+1.05	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	16:56
28 William Carrier L	+1.39	0.00	+0.19	+1.02	+0.15	0.00	+0.02	—	11:22
24 Seth Jarvis C	+1.20	+0.75	+0.42	+0.02	0.00	-0.01	+0.03	—	20:50
71 Taylor Hall L	+1.06	+0.75	+0.27	+0.07	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	13:28
20 Sebastian Aho C	+0.98	+0.70	+0.35	-0.08	0.00	+0.03	-0.02	—	20:35
74 Jaccob Slavin D	+0.69	0.00	+0.05	+0.64	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	16:48
21 Alexander Nikishin D	+0.51	+0.55	+0.12	-0.20	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	16:48
26 Sean Walker D	+0.49	0.00	+0.01	+0.43	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	23:00
31 Frederik Andersen G	+0.35	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.35	64:41
50 Eric Robinson L	+0.30	+0.70	+0.08	-0.47	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	7:56
27 Nikolaj Ehlers L	-0.02	0.00	+0.20	-0.27	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	19:59
19 K'Andre Miller D	-0.08	0.00	+0.07	-0.13	-0.15	0.00	+0.13	—	25:56
82 Jesperi Kotkaniemi C	-0.65	0.00	+0.07	-0.69	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	10:26
5 Jalen Chatfield D	-0.85	0.00	+0.02	-0.78	-0.15	0.00	+0.06	—	19:15

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.