Philadelphia Flyers

Metropolitan Division, Eastern Conference

Current Standings

GP	W	L	OTL	PTS	GF	GA	DIFF	PTS %	Last 10
77	39	26	12	90	228	231	-3	58.4%

Playoff Probabilities

62.7%

Make Playoffs

0.0%

Win Division

0.0%

Win Conference

2.8%

Win Stanley Cup

Based on 100,000 simulations run on Apr 07, 2026

Likely First-Round Opponents

Opponent	Probability	Likelihood
Pittsburgh Penguins	58.0%
Carolina Hurricanes	2.7%
Tampa Bay Lightning	1.8%

Probabilities sum to 62.7% (= playoff probability). Remaining 37.3% = miss playoffs.

Analysis

Summary

The Philadelphia Flyers are clinging to the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference with a 62.8% chance to qualify, though that probability dropped 13 percentage points after recent results elsewhere. With five games remaining and a projected finish of 95.6 points, they are essentially in a toss-up battle to stay above the cut line.

Record and Recent Performance

At 39-26-12 (90 points through 77 games), the Flyers own a 58.4% points percentage and a slightly negative goal differential at 228 goals for and 231 against. Their underlying team strength rating of 56.2% suggests they are competitive but not dominant, performing better on the road (58.2%) than at home (54.0%), which is notable given their remaining schedule. Encouragingly, their recent form sits at 70.0%, indicating they’ve been playing some of their best hockey down the stretch, a critical factor as the margin for error shrinks.

The Competition

Philadelphia sits eighth in the conference, tied in points with Ottawa but technically holding the final spot, while Boston (95 points) and Pittsburgh (96) are nearly out of reach and Montreal has long since secured position. The real battle is with the Senators (projected 96.0 points), Islanders (89 points), Red Wings (88), and Blue Jackets (88), all within striking distance. Ottawa has a slightly stronger profile and higher playoff odds at 74.0%, making them the Flyers’ most direct threat, while the Islanders, Red Wings, and Blue Jackets need strong finishes and help. Washington, at 87 points, is fading. Realistically, this is a two-team race for one spot between Philadelphia and Ottawa, with the Flyers holding only a razor-thin projected edge.

Remaining Schedule

The Flyers have five games left, two at home and three on the road, with opponents averaging a 55.8% strength rating, slightly above the league average of 53.0%. While labeled as average difficulty overall, the road-heavy nature plays into Philadelphia’s relative strength away from home. Their expected 5.6 remaining points aligns almost exactly with the projected playoff cutoff of 95.6 points, meaning they likely need at least three wins or the equivalent of six points to feel secure. Anything less could open the door for Ottawa or a surging team from below.

Outlook

The Flyers control their fate but only barely, and the recent drop in playoff probability underscores how fragile their position is. If their strong recent play continues, especially on the road, they have a solid path to 96 or more points and a berth. But with virtually no cushion and several teams within two points, every period from here on out carries playoff-level stakes.

Generated Apr 06, 2026 7:00 AM — AI-generated, may contain inaccuracies

Required Win Percentage for Playoffs

37.6%

Coin Flip (50%)

Even odds

72.7%

Likely (75%)

Probable scenario

—

Near-Certain (95%)

Safe scenario

Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has mathematically clinched a playoff spot. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.

Playoff Probability Breakdown

Understanding the factors that drive the 62.7% playoff probability

📊 Schedule Context

Remaining Games: 2 home, 3 away (40% home)

Schedule Balance: Road-Heavy ⚠️

Opponent Strength: 55.8% (vs 53.0% avg)

Schedule Difficulty: Average

🎯 Key Factors

Conference Position: 8 in Eastern

Projected Points: 95.6 pts

Expected Points (Remaining): 5.6 pts

Based on: 100,000 simulations

🏒 Playoff Picture

8th Place Cutoff: ~95.6 pts (projected)

Points Gap: Right on the cutoff line

Current Points: 90 pts

Analysis

⚠️ Road-heavy schedule ahead (3 away, 2 home) may impact playoff chances

In the playoff race - each game matters significantly

Projected to finish near the cutoff line (0.0 pts from 8th place)

Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.

Points Distribution vs. Cutline

Projected to finish with 94–97 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 95–96 points. Finishes above the cutline in 76.4% of simulations.

90 100

Team points Playoff cutline (8th place) Cutline middle 50% range

Team Projection

Low (10th pctile): 93 pts

Median (50th): 96 pts

High (90th pctile): 98 pts

Playoff Cutline

Low (10th pctile): 94 pts

Median (50th): 96 pts

High (90th pctile): 97 pts

Playoff Race — Eastern Conference

#	Team	PTS	GP	Left	STR	L10	SOS	Proj PTS	Playoff %
4	MTL	100	77	5	63.1%	80.0%	53.2%	106.1	100.0%
5	PIT	96	78	4	58.3%	60.0%	53.5%	100.6	100.0%
6	BOS	95	78	4	58.2%	65.0%	58.4%	99.5	98.5%
7	OTT	90	77	5	57.5%	65.0%	51.9%	96.0	74.0%
8	PHI	90	77	5	56.2%	70.0%	55.8%	95.6	62.7%

9	NYI	89	78	4	47.8%	30.0%	57.9%	93.3	22.9%
10	DET	88	77	5	49.2%	40.0%	54.1%	93.5	12.8%
11	CBJ	88	77	5	49.5%	35.0%	57.2%	93.4	24.1%
12	WSH	87	78	4	55.6%	65.0%	53.3%	91.3	4.9%

Yesterday's Impact

Result		Impact
PHI 2 - BOS 1 (OT)	PHI played	+12.9%
NYR 8 - WSH 1		+2.8%
OTT 6 - CAR 3		-1.9%
DET 4 - MIN 5		+1.3%
Net:		+15.1%

Team Strength Metrics

Overall Strength	Home Strength	Away Strength	Pythagorean Win %	Recent Form
56.2%	54.0%	58.2%	49.3%	70.0%

Player Statistics

#	Player	Pos	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	HIT	BLK	TOI
11	Travis Konecny	R	72	27	38	65	+15	96	37	19:12
46	Trevor Zegras	C	76	23	38	61	-2	39	23	18:45
74	Owen Tippett	R	76	27	22	49	-10	158	49	16:49
22	Christian Dvorak	C	75	16	32	48	+7	35	47	18:26
39	Matvei Michkov	R	75	17	25	42	-7	28	17	14:48
27	Noah Cates	L	76	16	26	42	+20	92	47	16:16
6	Travis Sanheim	D	76	9	25	34	+10	43	137	24:14
14	Sean Couturier	C	74	10	22	32	-7	91	39	16:43
9	Jamie Drysdale	D	73	8	22	30	-9	16	84	21:38
10	Bobby Brink → MIN	R	55	13	13	26	-5	67	30	15:29
8	Cam York	D	69	4	22	26	-2	19	131	22:35
71	Tyson Foerster	R	24	11	3	14	+7	23	19	17:20
52	Denver Barkey	C	38	5	9	14	-11	38	19	13:22
29	Nikita Grebenkin	R	54	4	10	14	-8	86	17	11:19
91	Carl Grundstrom	R	45	9	4	13	+7	135	23	11:52
36	Emil Andrae	D	55	2	11	13	+14	65	54	15:31
55	Rasmus Ristolainen	D	39	1	11	12	+6	42	60	21:17
18	Rodrigo Abols	C	42	3	7	10	-1	49	24	10:30
47	Noah Juulsen	D	50	1	8	9	+1	99	43	13:45
20	Alex Bump	L	13	4	4	8	+5	7	5	12:36
24	Nick Seeler	D	74	2	6	8	-2	117	133	17:42
41	Luke Glendening ← NJD	C	13	1	3	4	+1	28	8	12:00
19	Garnet Hathaway	R	62	1	2	3	-7	240	53	10:19
94	Porter Martone	R	4	1	2	3	+2	5	0	16:53
44	Nicolas Deslauriers → CAR	L	24	0	1	1	-3	86	8	8:04
25	Lane Pederson	C	5	0	0	0	0	16	3	8:51
10	Garrett Wilson	L	1	0	0	0	-1	4	0	10:03

Recent Games (Last 10)

Date	Opponent	Score	Result
Apr 05	vs BOS	2 - 1	W (OT/SO)
Apr 03	@ NYI	1 - 4	W
Apr 02	vs DET	2 - 4	L
Mar 31	@ WSH	6 - 4	L
Mar 29	vs DAL	2 - 1	W (OT/SO)
Mar 28	@ DET	3 - 5	W
Mar 26	vs CHI	5 - 1	W
Mar 24	vs CBJ	2 - 3	L
Mar 21	@ SJS	1 - 4	W
Mar 19	@ LAK	3 - 4	W (OT/SO)

Upcoming Games

Date	Opponent	Location	Opp Strength	Exp Pts	Playoff Swing	Predicted Winner
Apr 07, 19:00	@ New Jersey Devils	Away	52.4%	1.15	27.9%	PHI (51%)
Apr 09, 19:00	@ Detroit Red Wings	Away	49.2%	1.19	-	PHI (54%)
Apr 11, 19:00	@ Winnipeg Jets	Away	50.5%	1.15	-	PHI (52%)
Apr 13, 19:00	vs Carolina Hurricanes	Home	63.9%	1.09	-	CAR (52%)
Apr 14, 19:00	vs Montréal Canadiens	Home	63.1%	1.03	-	MTL (56%)
Averages (Next 5 games):				5.6 pts	10.3%

Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.