Philadelphia Flyers
Metropolitan Division, Eastern Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 39 | 26 | 12 | 90 | 228 | 231 | -3 | 58.4% |
|
Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Apr 07, 2026
Likely First-Round Opponents
| Opponent | Probability | Likelihood |
|---|---|---|
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
58.3% | |
Carolina Hurricanes
|
2.7% | |
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1.7% |
Probabilities sum to 63.0% (= playoff probability). Remaining 37.0% = miss playoffs.
Analysis
Summary
The Philadelphia Flyers are clinging to the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference with a 62.8% chance to qualify, though that probability dropped 13 percentage points after recent results elsewhere. With five games remaining and a projected finish of 95.6 points, they are essentially in a toss-up battle to stay above the cut line.
Record and Recent Performance
At 39-26-12 (90 points through 77 games), the Flyers own a 58.4% points percentage and a slightly negative goal differential at 228 goals for and 231 against. Their underlying team strength rating of 56.2% suggests they are competitive but not dominant, performing better on the road (58.2%) than at home (54.0%), which is notable given their remaining schedule. Encouragingly, their recent form sits at 70.0%, indicating they’ve been playing some of their best hockey down the stretch, a critical factor as the margin for error shrinks.
The Competition
Philadelphia sits eighth in the conference, tied in points with Ottawa but technically holding the final spot, while Boston (95 points) and Pittsburgh (96) are nearly out of reach and Montreal has long since secured position. The real battle is with the Senators (projected 96.0 points), Islanders (89 points), Red Wings (88), and Blue Jackets (88), all within striking distance. Ottawa has a slightly stronger profile and higher playoff odds at 74.0%, making them the Flyers’ most direct threat, while the Islanders, Red Wings, and Blue Jackets need strong finishes and help. Washington, at 87 points, is fading. Realistically, this is a two-team race for one spot between Philadelphia and Ottawa, with the Flyers holding only a razor-thin projected edge.
Remaining Schedule
The Flyers have five games left, two at home and three on the road, with opponents averaging a 55.8% strength rating, slightly above the league average of 53.0%. While labeled as average difficulty overall, the road-heavy nature plays into Philadelphia’s relative strength away from home. Their expected 5.6 remaining points aligns almost exactly with the projected playoff cutoff of 95.6 points, meaning they likely need at least three wins or the equivalent of six points to feel secure. Anything less could open the door for Ottawa or a surging team from below.
Outlook
The Flyers control their fate but only barely, and the recent drop in playoff probability underscores how fragile their position is. If their strong recent play continues, especially on the road, they have a solid path to 96 or more points and a berth. But with virtually no cushion and several teams within two points, every period from here on out carries playoff-level stakes.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has mathematically clinched a playoff spot. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 63.0% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 94–97 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 95–96 points. Finishes above the cutline in 76.7% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Eastern Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 100 | 77 | 5 | 63.1% | 80.0% | 53.2% | 106.1 | 100.0% | |
| 5 | 96 | 78 | 4 | 58.3% | 60.0% | 53.5% | 100.6 | 100.0% | |
| 6 | 95 | 78 | 4 | 58.2% | 65.0% | 58.4% | 99.4 | 98.6% | |
| 7 | 90 | 77 | 5 | 57.5% | 65.0% | 51.9% | 96.0 | 74.1% | |
| 8 | 90 | 77 | 5 | 56.2% | 70.0% | 55.8% | 95.6 | 63.0% | |
| 9 | 89 | 78 | 4 | 47.8% | 30.0% | 57.9% | 93.3 | 22.8% | |
| 10 | 88 | 77 | 5 | 49.2% | 40.0% | 54.1% | 93.4 | 12.5% | |
| 11 | 88 | 77 | 5 | 49.5% | 35.0% | 57.2% | 93.4 | 24.0% | |
| 12 | 87 | 78 | 4 | 55.6% | 65.0% | 53.3% | 91.3 | 4.8% | |
Yesterday's Impact
| Result | Impact | |
|---|---|---|
| PHI 2 - BOS 1 (OT) | PHI played |
+12.9%
|
| NYR 8 - WSH 1 |
+2.8%
|
|
| OTT 6 - CAR 3 |
-1.9%
|
|
| DET 4 - MIN 5 |
+1.3%
|
|
| Net: | +15.1% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56.2% | 54.0% | 58.2% | 49.3% | 70.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Travis Konecny | R | 72 | 27 | 38 | 65 | +15 | 0 | 96 | 37 | 19:12 | |
| 46 | Trevor Zegras | C | 76 | 23 | 38 | 61 | -2 | 0 | 39 | 23 | 18:45 | |
| 74 | Owen Tippett | R | 76 | 27 | 22 | 49 | -10 | 0 | 158 | 49 | 16:49 | |
| 22 | Christian Dvorak | C | 75 | 16 | 32 | 48 | +7 | 0 | 35 | 47 | 18:26 | |
| 39 | Matvei Michkov | R | 75 | 17 | 25 | 42 | -7 | 0 | 28 | 17 | 14:48 | |
| 27 | Noah Cates | L | 76 | 16 | 26 | 42 | +20 | 0 | 92 | 47 | 16:16 | |
| 6 | Travis Sanheim | D | 76 | 9 | 25 | 34 | +10 | 0 | 43 | 137 | 24:14 | |
| 14 | Sean Couturier | C | 74 | 10 | 22 | 32 | -7 | 0 | 91 | 39 | 16:43 | |
| 9 | Jamie Drysdale | D | 73 | 8 | 22 | 30 | -9 | 0 | 16 | 84 | 21:38 | |
| 10 | Bobby Brink → MIN | R | 55 | 13 | 13 | 26 | -5 | 0 | 67 | 30 | 15:29 | |
| 8 | Cam York | D | 69 | 4 | 22 | 26 | -2 | 0 | 19 | 131 | 22:35 | |
| 71 | Tyson Foerster | R | 24 | 11 | 3 | 14 | +7 | 0 | 23 | 19 | 17:20 | |
| 52 | Denver Barkey | C | 38 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -11 | 0 | 38 | 19 | 13:22 | |
| 29 | Nikita Grebenkin | R | 54 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -8 | 0 | 86 | 17 | 11:19 | |
| 91 | Carl Grundstrom | R | 45 | 9 | 4 | 13 | +7 | 0 | 135 | 23 | 11:52 | |
| 36 | Emil Andrae | D | 55 | 2 | 11 | 13 | +14 | 0 | 65 | 54 | 15:31 | |
| 55 | Rasmus Ristolainen | D | 39 | 1 | 11 | 12 | +6 | 0 | 42 | 60 | 21:17 | |
| 18 | Rodrigo Abols | C | 42 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -1 | 0 | 49 | 24 | 10:30 | |
| 47 | Noah Juulsen | D | 50 | 1 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 0 | 99 | 43 | 13:45 | |
| 20 | Alex Bump | L | 13 | 4 | 4 | 8 | +5 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 12:36 | |
| 24 | Nick Seeler | D | 74 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 0 | 117 | 133 | 17:42 | |
| 41 | Luke Glendening ← NJD | C | 13 | 1 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 28 | 8 | 12:00 | |
| 19 | Garnet Hathaway | R | 62 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 0 | 240 | 53 | 10:19 | |
| 94 | Porter Martone | R | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 16:53 | |
| 44 | Nicolas Deslauriers → CAR | L | 24 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 86 | 8 | 8:04 | |
| 25 | Lane Pederson | C | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 8:51 | |
| 10 | Garrett Wilson | L | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 10:03 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Location | Score | Result | Opp Strength | Playoff Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 05 | Boston Bruins | Home | 2 - 1 (OT) | W | 58.2% | +12.9% |
| Apr 03 | New York Islanders | Away | 1 - 4 | W | 47.8% | +11.3% |
| Apr 02 | Detroit Red Wings | Home | 2 - 4 | L | 49.2% | -12.3% |
| Mar 31 | Washington Capitals | Away | 6 - 4 | L | 55.6% | -10.5% |
| Mar 29 | Dallas Stars | Home | 2 - 1 (OT) | W | 57.8% | +9.8% |
| Mar 28 | Detroit Red Wings | Away | 3 - 5 | W | 49.2% | +7.5% |
| Mar 26 | Chicago Blackhawks | Home | 5 - 1 | W | 40.9% | +5.0% |
| Mar 24 | Columbus Blue Jackets | Home | 2 - 3 | L | 49.5% | -7.9% |
| Mar 21 | San Jose Sharks | Away | 1 - 4 | W | 46.2% | +5.5% |
| Mar 19 | Los Angeles Kings | Away | 3 - 4 (OT) | W | 50.1% | +3.8% |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Playoff Swing | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 07, 19:00 | @ New Jersey Devils | Away | 52.4% | 1.15 | 27.7% | PHI (51%) |
| Apr 09, 19:00 | @ Detroit Red Wings | Away | 49.2% | 1.19 | - | PHI (54%) |
| Apr 11, 19:00 | @ Winnipeg Jets | Away | 50.5% | 1.15 | - | PHI (52%) |
| Apr 13, 19:00 | vs Carolina Hurricanes | Home | 63.9% | 1.09 | - | CAR (52%) |
| Apr 14, 19:00 | vs Montréal Canadiens | Home | 63.1% | 1.03 | - | MTL (56%) |
| Averages (Next 5 games): | 5.6 pts | 8.5% | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.