Philadelphia Flyers
Metropolitan Division, Eastern Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 25 | 20 | 11 | 61 | 167 | 180 | -13 | 54.5% |
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Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Feb 20, 2026
Analysis
Summary
The Philadelphia Flyers sit on the fringes of the Eastern Conference playoff race with a 9.6% chance to qualify, reflecting how narrow their path has become. While they remain mathematically alive, their projected 89.2 points falls well short of the estimated 96.7-point cutoff, meaning they likely need both a strong finish and help from multiple teams ahead of them.
Record and Recent Performance
Philadelphia is 25-20-11 through 56 games, good for 61 points and a 54.5% points percentage, which places them 14th in the conference standings. Their goal differential of minus-13 (167 goals for, 180 against) and middling team strength rating of 48.5% underline a roster that has struggled to consistently tilt the ice, especially on the road where their strength drops to 46.1%. Recent form at 45.0% suggests the Flyers have not gained momentum at a time when they would need a sustained surge.
The Competition
The Flyers are chasing a crowded pack, with the New York Islanders holding the cutline at 69 points and projecting to 96.7 points, while teams like Boston, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo all project between 97.7 and 101.2 points. Even clubs just ahead such as Washington at 65 points and Columbus at 65 points have higher projected totals or stronger underlying ratings, making it difficult for Philadelphia to gain ground. Realistically, the Flyers would need to leapfrog at least four teams, several of which have playoff probabilities north of 50%, to sneak into the top eight.
Remaining Schedule
Philadelphia has 26 games remaining, split fairly evenly with 12 at home and 14 on the road, and a schedule considered average in difficulty. Their opponents carry a combined strength of 54.4%, slightly above league average, which limits the opportunity for easy points. Based on current performance levels, the Flyers are expected to collect about 28.2 points down the stretch, a pace that leaves them roughly seven to eight points shy of the projected playoff cutoff.
Outlook
For the Flyers to make the playoffs, they would likely need to outperform their season-long metrics and push closer to a 105-point pace over the final 26 games, while also seeing several rivals falter. Given their modest team strength, negative goal differential, and the depth of competition ahead of them, the odds remain long despite a slight recent uptick in probability. The more realistic outlook is a competitive finish that falls just short, positioning Philadelphia closer to the bubble than the bracket.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has already reached that threshold. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 9.6% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 86–92 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 95–97 points. Finishes above the cutline in 12.4% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Eastern Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 72 | 57 | 25 | 58.5% | 65.0% | 54.7% | 101.2 | 87.5% | |
| 5 | 70 | 57 | 25 | 59.0% | 65.0% | 54.5% | 99.3 | 81.8% | |
| 6 | 70 | 56 | 26 | 62.9% | 80.0% | 55.4% | 101.2 | 91.3% | |
| 7 | 69 | 57 | 25 | 59.9% | 75.0% | 56.0% | 97.7 | 70.1% | |
| 8 | 69 | 58 | 24 | 55.9% | 60.0% | 54.0% | 96.6 | 63.9% | |
| 9 | 65 | 59 | 23 | 54.2% | 55.0% | 53.5% | 91.2 | 20.4% | |
| 10 | 65 | 56 | 26 | 60.7% | 90.0% | 54.6% | 95.9 | 56.3% | |
| 11 | 63 | 57 | 25 | 55.5% | 65.0% | 53.8% | 91.8 | 20.4% | |
| 12 | 63 | 57 | 25 | 49.8% | 45.0% | 54.3% | 89.8 | 9.1% | |
| 13 | 61 | 57 | 25 | 46.7% | 40.0% | 53.4% | 87.9 | 5.7% | |
| 14 | 61 | 56 | 26 | 48.5% | 45.0% | 54.4% | 89.2 | 9.6% | |
| 15 | 58 | 57 | 25 | 43.8% | 40.0% | 52.2% | 84.9 | 1.5% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48.5% | 50.2% | 46.1% | 46.3% | 45.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Travis Konecny | R | 55 | 22 | 32 | 54 | +8 | 0 | 73 | 27 | 18:58 | |
| 46 | Trevor Zegras | C | 56 | 20 | 29 | 49 | -7 | 0 | 27 | 15 | 18:43 | |
| 74 | Owen Tippett | R | 56 | 19 | 16 | 35 | -7 | 0 | 104 | 28 | 16:25 | |
| 22 | Christian Dvorak | C | 55 | 12 | 23 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 33 | 18:00 | |
| 39 | Matvei Michkov | R | 55 | 13 | 16 | 29 | -7 | 0 | 21 | 16 | 14:34 | |
| 27 | Noah Cates | L | 56 | 10 | 16 | 26 | +15 | 0 | 64 | 38 | 16:22 | |
| 14 | Sean Couturier | C | 55 | 5 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 0 | 62 | 34 | 17:06 | |
| 10 | Bobby Brink | R | 50 | 13 | 11 | 24 | -5 | 0 | 60 | 29 | 15:17 | |
| 6 | Travis Sanheim | D | 56 | 6 | 18 | 24 | +2 | 0 | 32 | 106 | 24:02 | |
| 9 | Jamie Drysdale | D | 53 | 5 | 18 | 23 | -6 | 0 | 12 | 59 | 21:31 | |
| 8 | Cam York | D | 49 | 4 | 18 | 22 | -3 | 0 | 8 | 101 | 22:51 | |
| 71 | Tyson Foerster | R | 21 | 10 | 3 | 13 | +7 | 0 | 20 | 18 | 17:26 | |
| 29 | Nikita Grebenkin | R | 42 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -7 | 0 | 67 | 11 | 11:20 | |
| 36 | Emil Andrae | D | 40 | 1 | 10 | 11 | +11 | 0 | 46 | 39 | 16:54 | |
| 91 | Carl Grundstrom | R | 27 | 8 | 2 | 10 | +3 | 0 | 80 | 15 | 12:26 | |
| 18 | Rodrigo Abols | C | 42 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -1 | 0 | 49 | 24 | 10:30 | |
| 52 | Denver Barkey | C | 22 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -6 | 0 | 17 | 12 | 13:33 | |
| 47 | Noah Juulsen | D | 42 | 1 | 8 | 9 | +2 | 0 | 88 | 36 | 13:56 | |
| 24 | Nick Seeler | D | 56 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -5 | 0 | 91 | 105 | 18:42 | |
| 55 | Rasmus Ristolainen | D | 19 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -4 | 0 | 20 | 26 | 19:53 | |
| 19 | Garnet Hathaway | R | 47 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 0 | 183 | 35 | 10:17 | |
| 44 | Nicolas Deslauriers | L | 21 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 76 | 8 | 8:18 | |
| 25 | Lane Pederson | C | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 8:51 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 05 | vs OTT | 1 - 2 | L (OT/SO) |
| Feb 03 | vs WSH | 4 - 2 | W |
| Jan 31 | vs LAK | 2 - 3 | L (OT/SO) |
| Jan 29 | @ BOS | 6 - 3 | L |
| Jan 28 | @ CBJ | 5 - 3 | L |
| Jan 26 | vs NYI | 0 - 4 | L |
| Jan 23 | @ COL | 3 - 7 | W |
| Jan 21 | @ UTA | 5 - 4 | L (OT/SO) |
| Jan 19 | @ VGK | 1 - 2 | W |
| Jan 17 | vs NYR | 3 - 6 | L |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 19:00 | @ Washington Capitals | Away | 54.2% | 1.01 | WSH (56%) |
| Feb 26, 20:00 | @ New York Rangers | Away | 37.8% | 1.36 | PHI (63%) |
| Feb 28, 15:00 | vs Boston Bruins | Home | 59.9% | 1.13 | PHI (50%) |
| Mar 02, 19:30 | @ Toronto Maple Leafs | Away | 49.8% | 1.06 | TOR (54%) |
| Mar 05, 19:00 | vs Utah Mammoth | Home | 59.6% | 1.13 | PHI (50%) |
| Mar 07, 17:30 | @ Pittsburgh Penguins | Away | 62.9% | 1.01 | PIT (57%) |
| Mar 09, 19:00 | vs New York Rangers | Home | 37.8% | 1.18 | PHI (53%) |
| Mar 11, 19:30 | vs Washington Capitals | Home | 54.2% | 1.15 | PHI (51%) |
| Mar 12, 20:00 | @ Minnesota Wild | Away | 65.9% | 0.96 | MIN (59%) |
| Mar 14, 19:30 | vs Columbus Blue Jackets | Home | 60.7% | 1.09 | CBJ (52%) |
| Total Expected (Next 10 games): | 11.1 pts | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.