Carolina Hurricanes
Metropolitan Division, Eastern Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 36 | 15 | 6 | 78 | 197 | 163 | +34 | 68.4% |
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Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Feb 20, 2026
Analysis
Summary
The Carolina Hurricanes are all but locked into the playoffs with a 99.6% probability and are firmly in the race for the top of the conference. Their real drama down the stretch is less about making the postseason and more about whether they can chase down Tampa Bay for first place and secure home-ice advantage.
Record and Recent Performance
Carolina sits at 36-15-6 through 57 games, good for 78 points and a strong 68.4% points percentage, backed by a +34 goal differential with 197 goals for and 163 against. Their team strength rating of 68.2% reflects an elite profile, especially at home where they rate at 70.7%, and their recent form is red-hot at 90.0%, suggesting they are peaking at the right time. With a projected finish of 108.3 points, they are comfortably above the expected playoff cutoff of 96.7.
The Competition
At the top, Tampa Bay holds the tiebreaker in points with 78 in just 55 games and a higher projected finish of 111.3 points, making the division race still competitive but tilted slightly toward the Lightning. Behind Carolina, the pack is crowded but clearly a step down, with Montreal, Pittsburgh, and Detroit all projected between roughly 100 and 101 points, meaning the Hurricanes would need a significant collapse to fall into danger. The cutline teams like the Islanders and Bruins project in the high 90s, far enough back that Carolina’s margin for error remains large.
Remaining Schedule
The Hurricanes have 25 games left, with a road-heavy split of 15 away and 10 at home, which slightly tempers expectations given their stronger home performance. Their remaining opponents average a 55.0% strength rating, just above league average, resulting in an overall schedule difficulty graded as average. Based on that slate, Carolina is expected to collect about 30.3 more points, which aligns with their projection and keeps them well clear of the playoff bubble.
Outlook
Barring an extreme downturn, Carolina’s playoff spot is secure, and the focus should be on jockeying with Tampa Bay for division and conference positioning. If their recent form holds and they navigate the road-heavy schedule reasonably well, the Hurricanes look set up not just to make the playoffs but to enter them as a legitimate conference and Stanley Cup contender.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has already reached that threshold. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 99.7% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 105–111 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 95–97 points. Finishes above the cutline in 99.8% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Eastern Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 78 | 55 | 27 | 71.7% | 85.0% | 55.3% | 111.3 | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 78 | 57 | 25 | 68.2% | 90.0% | 55.0% | 108.3 | 99.7% | |
| 3 | 72 | 58 | 24 | 55.5% | 60.0% | 54.5% | 99.9 | 82.8% | |
| 4 | 72 | 57 | 25 | 58.5% | 65.0% | 54.7% | 101.2 | 87.5% | |
| 5 | 70 | 57 | 25 | 59.0% | 65.0% | 54.5% | 99.3 | 81.8% | |
| 6 | 70 | 56 | 26 | 62.9% | 80.0% | 55.4% | 101.2 | 91.3% | |
| 7 | 69 | 57 | 25 | 59.9% | 75.0% | 56.0% | 97.7 | 70.1% | |
| 8 | 69 | 58 | 24 | 55.9% | 60.0% | 54.0% | 96.6 | 63.9% | |
| 9 | 65 | 59 | 23 | 54.2% | 55.0% | 53.5% | 91.2 | 20.4% | |
| 10 | 65 | 56 | 26 | 60.7% | 90.0% | 54.6% | 95.9 | 56.3% | |
| 11 | 63 | 57 | 25 | 55.5% | 65.0% | 53.8% | 91.8 | 20.4% | |
| 12 | 63 | 57 | 25 | 49.8% | 45.0% | 54.3% | 89.8 | 9.1% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68.2% | 70.7% | 64.6% | 59.4% | 90.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Sebastian Aho | C | 57 | 20 | 37 | 57 | +12 | 0 | 51 | 18 | 19:45 | |
| 37 | Andrei Svechnikov | R | 57 | 21 | 28 | 49 | +6 | 0 | 99 | 11 | 16:57 | |
| 24 | Seth Jarvis | C | 49 | 25 | 18 | 43 | +10 | 0 | 70 | 22 | 19:02 | |
| 27 | Nikolaj Ehlers | L | 57 | 14 | 29 | 43 | +3 | 0 | 10 | 17 | 16:44 | |
| 4 | Shayne Gostisbehere | D | 40 | 9 | 29 | 38 | +9 | 0 | 14 | 46 | 19:52 | |
| 53 | Jackson Blake | R | 57 | 16 | 17 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 20 | 16:27 | |
| 71 | Taylor Hall | L | 57 | 12 | 15 | 27 | +1 | 0 | 36 | 23 | 14:05 | |
| 11 | Jordan Staal | C | 54 | 15 | 11 | 26 | +4 | 0 | 111 | 28 | 16:02 | |
| 22 | Logan Stankoven | C | 57 | 10 | 15 | 25 | +4 | 0 | 30 | 16 | 15:12 | |
| 19 | K'Andre Miller | D | 49 | 4 | 19 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 62 | 51 | 22:28 | |
| 21 | Alexander Nikishin | D | 56 | 7 | 15 | 22 | +9 | 0 | 100 | 64 | 18:19 | |
| 48 | Jordan Martinook | L | 54 | 7 | 11 | 18 | +4 | 0 | 91 | 37 | 14:46 | |
| 50 | Eric Robinson | L | 44 | 10 | 5 | 15 | +7 | 0 | 60 | 7 | 11:44 | |
| 26 | Sean Walker | D | 57 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -5 | 0 | 93 | 87 | 22:12 | |
| 77 | Mark Jankowski | L | 45 | 5 | 8 | 13 | +4 | 0 | 29 | 30 | 11:06 | |
| 5 | Jalen Chatfield | D | 50 | 1 | 12 | 13 | +20 | 0 | 25 | 43 | 20:04 | |
| 28 | William Carrier | L | 46 | 6 | 6 | 12 | +2 | 0 | 112 | 11 | 11:16 | |
| 82 | Jesperi Kotkaniemi | C | 36 | 2 | 7 | 9 | +1 | 0 | 57 | 14 | 10:59 | |
| 64 | Joel Nystrom | D | 37 | 1 | 8 | 9 | +5 | 0 | 9 | 21 | 15:10 | |
| 6 | Mike Reilly | D | 29 | 1 | 6 | 7 | +9 | 0 | 14 | 27 | 15:46 | |
| 74 | Jaccob Slavin | D | 17 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +9 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 20:11 | |
| 62 | Charles Alexis Legault | D | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 13:16 | |
| 15 | Noah Philp | C | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 9:13 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 05 | @ NYR | 0 - 2 | W |
| Feb 03 | vs OTT | 4 - 3 | W |
| Feb 01 | vs LAK | 3 - 2 | W (OT/SO) |
| Jan 31 | @ WSH | 4 - 3 | L (OT/SO) |
| Jan 29 | vs UTA | 5 - 4 | W |
| Jan 24 | @ OTT | 1 - 4 | W |
| Jan 22 | vs CHI | 3 - 4 | L (OT/SO) |
| Jan 19 | vs BUF | 2 - 1 | W |
| Jan 17 | @ NJD | 1 - 4 | W |
| Jan 16 | vs FLA | 9 - 1 | W |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 19:00 | vs Tampa Bay Lightning | Home | 71.7% | 1.11 | TBL (51%) |
| Feb 28, 19:00 | vs Detroit Red Wings | Home | 55.5% | 1.23 | CAR (56%) |
| Mar 02, 22:00 | @ Seattle Kraken | Away | 53.4% | 1.18 | CAR (53%) |
| Mar 04, 22:00 | @ Vancouver Canucks | Away | 32.8% | 1.46 | CAR (69%) |
| Mar 06, 21:00 | @ Edmonton Oilers | Away | 52.1% | 1.19 | CAR (54%) |
| Mar 07, 22:00 | @ Calgary Flames | Away | 44.6% | 1.20 | CAR (54%) |
| Mar 10, 19:00 | vs Pittsburgh Penguins | Home | 62.9% | 1.14 | CAR (51%) |
| Mar 12, 19:00 | vs St. Louis Blues | Home | 35.1% | 1.51 | CAR (72%) |
| Mar 14, 19:00 | @ Tampa Bay Lightning | Away | 71.7% | 1.10 | TBL (52%) |
| Mar 17, 19:00 | @ Columbus Blue Jackets | Away | 60.7% | 1.12 | CBJ (50%) |
| Total Expected (Next 10 games): | 12.2 pts | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.