hockeystats.io

Utah MammothUTA 3–2 Final/OT Nashville PredatorsNSH

Saturday, October 11, 2025

Final/OT 1st2nd3rdOT T SOG
Utah MammothUTA 1011 3 23
Nashville PredatorsNSH 1100 2 23

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
2:21 UTA Logan Cooley (1) Dylan Guenther (1), JJ Peterka (1) · wrist xG 0.20 1–0 ▶
7:23 NSH Filip Forsberg (1) Brady Martin (1) · snap xG 0.05 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
13:13 NSH Erik Haula (1) Luke Evangelista (1), Jonathan Marchessault (1) · deflected xG 0.93 1–2 ▶
3rd Period
11:37 UTA Jack McBain (1) Nick Schmaltz (2), Sean Durzi (1) · wrist xG 0.53 2–2 ▶
Overtime
2:56 UTA Dylan Guenther (2) Unassisted · backhand xG 0.28 3–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

UTA 34%Deserve to win66% NSH
UTANSH
2.96Expected goals3.91
3Goals (no shootout)2
1.40Expected goals, 5 on 52.66
43Shot attempts60
30Unblocked attempts39
23Shots on goal23

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
13:10 NSH Deserve to win Deserve to win · NSH takes the lead, 60–40%
UTA had led since 2:21 of the 1st, by as much as 74%
13:10 NSH xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced UTA 2.24–0.05
In xG over 10 minutes, 4:50 to 14:50 of the 2nd; goals 1–0
3rd Period
12:50 UTA xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced NSH 1.29–0.26
In xG over 10 minutes, 2:50 to 12:50 of the 3rd; goals 1–0
18:50 UTA No shift No shift · Agozzino, 11:11 on the bench
No shift after 3:43 of the 3rd; 9 shifts (5:21) before that

Shot map

UTA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ NSH shoots
Luke Evangelista: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:10) Lawson Crouse: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 0:27) Jack McBain: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:47) Tyson Jost: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:50) Steven Stamkos: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 3:41) Logan Cooley: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:11) Michael McCarron: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 10:20) Nick Schmaltz: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 11:26) Erik Haula: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 11:47) Michael Bunting: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 11:50) Jonathan Marchessault: deflected, 97 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 12:10) Clayton Keller: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 13:04) Dylan Guenther: slap, 32 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 14:05) Dylan Guenther: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 14:29) Jack McBain: deflected, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 15:35) Nick Schmaltz: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 15:56) Tyson Jost: backhand, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:21) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:24) Dylan Guenther: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 18:56) Logan Cooley: backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 19:09) Clayton Keller: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 19:13) Nick Schmaltz: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 19:23) Nate Schmidt: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 0:45) Fedor Svechkov: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 1:38) Michael Bunting: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 5:17) JJ Peterka: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 7:04) Ian Cole: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:13) Spencer Stastney: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 8:24) Jonathan Marchessault: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 8:45) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:29) Fedor Svechkov: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 9:46) Michael Bunting: bat, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 11:01) Michael Bunting: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 11:44) Filip Forsberg: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 11:55) Ryan O'Reilly: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 12:11) Erik Haula: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.24 (P2 13:10) Filip Forsberg: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 14:43) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 14:46) Luke Evangelista: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 15:45) Michael Bunting: backhand, 24 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:56) Roman Josi: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 19:57) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 0:47) Dylan Guenther: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 1:19) Dylan Guenther: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 1:35) Michael Bunting: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:42) Luke Evangelista: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 2:44) Luke Evangelista: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 2:46) Brandon Tanev: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 3:18) Brandon Tanev: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 3:24) Ian Cole: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:46) Nick Schmaltz: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 5:56) Jack McBain: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 6:30) Kevin Stenlund: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 7:38) Brandon Tanev: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:42) Filip Forsberg: deflected, 26 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 8:55) Jonathan Marchessault: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 9:01) Kailer Yamamoto: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 9:54) Kailer Yamamoto: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 10:19) Tyson Jost: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:06) Fedor Svechkov: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 12:59) Jonathan Marchessault: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 14:16) Nick Perbix: wrist, 92 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 16:44) Jonathan Marchessault: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 17:26) Steven Stamkos: tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:02) Logan Cooley: GOAL, wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 2:21) Filip Forsberg: GOAL, snap, 33 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 7:23) Erik Haula: GOAL, deflected, 4 ft, xG 0.93 (P2 13:13) Jack McBain: GOAL, wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.53 (P3 11:37) Dylan Guenther: GOAL, backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.28 (OT 2:56)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Utah Mammoth

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
11 Dylan Guenther 112 +2 80.57 1323:54
9 Clayton Keller 000 -1 40.14 0123:05
92 Logan Cooley 101 +1 30.29 1022:40
8 Nick Schmaltz 011 0 70.51 0020:04
82 Kevin Stenlund 000 0 10.15 1117:28
22 Jack McBain 101 0 40.78 1117:08
67 Lawson Crouse 000 -1 30.12 5016:15
10 JJ Peterka 011 +1 30.03 0015:08
13 Brandon Tanev 000 0 30.11 6011:13
56 Kailer Yamamoto 000 0 20.21 0009:28
Defense
98 Mikhail Sergachev 000 0 00.00 0728:10
28 Ian Cole 000 +1 20.02 1119:11
88 Nate Schmidt 000 -1 10.02 0118:41
5 Sean Durzi 011 +1 10.00 2216:58
6 John Marino 000 -2 10.00 1116:31
3 Olli Maatta 000 +1 00.00 0009:42
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Karel Vejmelka 23221 .913 3.91 +1.91

Nashville Predators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
90 Ryan O'Reilly 000 +1 20.12 0121:21
9 Filip Forsberg 101 +1 80.42 4120:51
91 Steven Stamkos 000 0 40.10 0019:59
81 Jonathan Marchessault 011 0 70.47 5017:50
58 Michael Bunting 000 -1 60.57 1015:25
56 Erik Haula 101 0 41.25 3114:53
47 Michael McCarron 000 -1 20.00 3014:15
22 Cole Smith 000 -1 00.00 1013:34
77 Luke Evangelista 011 0 40.20 1013:28
9 Fedor Svechkov 000 -1 40.41 0113:28
17 Tyson Jost 000 -1 30.05 1010:47
Defense
59 Roman Josi 000 -1 50.18 0227:43
76 Brady Skjei 000 +2 40.00 0222:54
48 Nick Perbix 000 +2 50.00 1120:25
2 Adam Wilsby 000 -1 10.00 0117:00
24 Spencer Stastney 000 -2 10.15 0113:47
72 Justin Barron 000 -1 00.00 0112:44
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Juuse Saros 23320 .870 2.96 -0.04

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Utah Mammoth

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
11 Dylan Guenther R +2.82 +1.45 +0.37 +0.55 +0.30 0.00 +0.15 — 23:54
70 Karel Vejmelka G +1.91 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.91 62:16
92 Logan Cooley C +1.20 +0.75 +0.19 +0.34 0.00 -0.04 -0.04 — 22:40
50 Sean Durzi D +0.84 +0.55 0.00 +0.47 -0.30 0.00 +0.12 — 16:58
77 JJ Peterka R +0.81 +0.55 +0.02 +0.29 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 15:08
2 Olli Maatta D +0.71 0.00 0.00 +0.73 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 9:42
8 Nick Schmaltz C +0.67 +0.70 +0.33 -0.15 -0.15 -0.06 0.00 — 20:04
28 Ian Cole D +0.38 0.00 +0.01 +0.31 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 19:11
56 Kailer Yamamoto R +0.11 0.00 +0.14 -0.04 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 9:28
36 Andrew Agozzino L +0.06 0.00 0.00 -0.11 +0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 5:21
26 Dmitri Simashev D +0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.06 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 8:31
13 Brandon Tanev L -0.12 0.00 +0.07 -0.12 0.00 0.00 -0.08 — 11:13
82 Kevin Stenlund C -0.15 0.00 +0.10 -0.13 -0.15 +0.01 +0.03 — 17:28
22 Jack McBain C -0.15 +0.75 +0.51 -1.48 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 17:08
98 Mikhail Sergachev D -0.60 0.00 0.00 -0.91 0.00 0.00 +0.31 — 28:10
67 Lawson Crouse L -1.53 0.00 +0.08 -1.56 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 16:15
88 Nate Schmidt D -1.60 0.00 +0.01 -1.64 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 18:41
9 Clayton Keller R -1.61 0.00 +0.09 -1.73 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 23:05
6 John Marino D -1.75 0.00 0.00 -1.78 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 16:31

Nashville Predators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
77 Luke Evangelista R +2.56 +0.70 +0.13 +1.77 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 13:28
56 Erik Haula L +2.52 +0.75 +0.81 +1.02 -0.15 +0.04 +0.05 — 14:53
81 Jonathan Marchessault R +2.38 +0.55 +0.30 +1.55 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:50
76 Brady Skjei D +1.78 0.00 0.00 +1.68 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 22:54
48 Nick Perbix D +1.70 0.00 0.00 +1.67 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 20:25
9 Filip Forsberg L +1.23 +0.75 +0.27 +0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 20:51
44 Brady Martin C +0.88 +0.70 0.00 +0.21 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 10:40
58 Michael Bunting L +0.79 0.00 +0.37 +0.32 +0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 15:25
40 Fedor Svechkov C +0.68 0.00 +0.26 +0.40 0.00 -0.04 +0.05 — 13:28
59 Roman Josi D +0.61 0.00 +0.12 +0.32 +0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 27:43
90 Ryan O'Reilly C +0.38 0.00 +0.08 +0.21 0.00 +0.04 +0.05 — 21:21
91 Steven Stamkos C +0.31 0.00 +0.06 +0.40 -0.15 +0.02 -0.02 — 19:59
83 Adam Wilsby D +0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.31 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 17:00
74 Juuse Saros G -0.04 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.04 62:40
24 Spencer Stastney D -0.15 0.00 +0.10 -0.59 +0.30 0.00 +0.05 — 13:47
47 Michael McCarron C -0.46 0.00 0.00 -0.49 0.00 +0.05 -0.02 — 14:15
20 Justin Barron D -0.62 0.00 0.00 -0.61 0.00 0.00 -0.01 — 12:44
17 Tyson Jost C -0.63 0.00 +0.03 -0.67 0.00 -0.01 +0.02 — 10:47
36 Cole Smith R -0.77 0.00 0.00 -0.71 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 13:34

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.