Nashville Predators
Central Division, Western Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 26 | 24 | 7 | 59 | 169 | 198 | -29 | 51.8% |
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Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Feb 20, 2026
Analysis
Summary
The Nashville Predators are on the fringes of the Western Conference playoff race with a 19.3% chance of qualifying, effectively needing a near-perfect final two months to get in. With no realistic path to a division title and long odds to make noise beyond simply qualifying, their margin for error is extremely thin.
Record and Recent Performance
Nashville sits at 26-24-7 for 59 points through 57 games, translating to a 51.8% points percentage that places them 10th in the conference race. Their goal differential of minus-29, driven by 198 goals against, reflects a team that has struggled to control play consistently, which aligns with a modest 45.6% overall strength rating. Recent form at 45.0% suggests they have not gained meaningful momentum, and their road performance in particular at 42.4% strength continues to drag down their overall outlook.
The Competition
The Predators are chasing a crowded pack, with Anaheim holding the current cutline at 63 points and a projected 94.9-point finish, while Seattle, Utah, and Vegas all project comfortably above 92 points. Edmonton and Los Angeles are closer in raw points, but both project near or above Nashville’s projected ceiling, and even San Jose just behind them carries a higher projected finish at 88.0 points. To climb from 10th into the top eight, Nashville would likely need to pass at least three teams, several of whom are stronger by both underlying metrics and playoff probability.
Remaining Schedule
Nashville has 25 games left, with a road-heavy split of 14 away and 11 at home, which is a concern given their weaker road profile. The remaining opponents average a 53.0% strength rating, making the schedule roughly league average in difficulty, but not forgiving enough to hide inconsistency. With an expected 26.7 points still to be earned, the Predators project to finish around 85.7 points, well short of the estimated 90.6-point playoff cutoff.
Outlook
For the Predators to reach the postseason, they would need a sharp turnaround defensively and a points pace closer to a top-three team down the stretch. While not mathematically out of reach, the combination of mediocre form, road-heavy games, and stronger competition ahead makes their playoff path unlikely without a sustained surge that they have yet to show this season.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has already reached that threshold. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 19.3% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 83–89 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 89–92 points. Finishes above the cutline in 21.4% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Western Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 68 | 57 | 25 | 52.5% | 40.0% | 53.2% | 96.3 | 91.1% | |
| 5 | 64 | 57 | 25 | 59.6% | 70.0% | 52.3% | 94.4 | 86.1% | |
| 6 | 64 | 58 | 24 | 52.1% | 50.0% | 53.3% | 90.6 | 58.5% | |
| 7 | 63 | 56 | 26 | 53.4% | 60.0% | 52.7% | 92.9 | 76.5% | |
| 8 | 63 | 56 | 26 | 56.6% | 80.0% | 49.1% | 94.9 | 86.2% | |
| 9 | 60 | 56 | 26 | 49.6% | 55.0% | 49.4% | 89.5 | 43.6% | |
| 10 | 59 | 57 | 25 | 45.6% | 45.0% | 53.0% | 85.7 | 19.3% | |
| 11 | 58 | 55 | 27 | 46.8% | 45.0% | 49.3% | 88.1 | 33.9% | |
| 12 | 53 | 57 | 25 | 42.4% | 40.0% | 52.9% | 78.7 | 1.0% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45.6% | 49.7% | 42.4% | 42.1% | 45.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | Ryan O'Reilly | C | 57 | 20 | 36 | 56 | +8 | 0 | 10 | 44 | 20:09 | |
| 9 | Filip Forsberg | L | 57 | 24 | 23 | 47 | -5 | 0 | 103 | 18 | 18:49 | |
| 91 | Steven Stamkos | C | 57 | 28 | 16 | 44 | -16 | 0 | 65 | 21 | 17:37 | |
| 77 | Luke Evangelista | R | 56 | 8 | 34 | 42 | +8 | 0 | 10 | 15 | 16:47 | |
| 59 | Roman Josi | D | 45 | 11 | 28 | 39 | -8 | 0 | 15 | 68 | 24:21 | |
| 58 | Michael Bunting | L | 57 | 12 | 18 | 30 | -12 | 0 | 31 | 21 | 14:52 | |
| 56 | Erik Haula | L | 57 | 9 | 20 | 29 | -16 | 0 | 70 | 34 | 16:33 | |
| 37 | Nick Blankenburg | D | 45 | 6 | 15 | 21 | -11 | 0 | 41 | 46 | 17:58 | |
| 81 | Jonathan Marchessault | C | 38 | 10 | 7 | 17 | -18 | 0 | 51 | 6 | 16:29 | |
| 71 | Matthew Wood | R | 46 | 9 | 8 | 17 | -3 | 0 | 36 | 17 | 11:51 | |
| 76 | Brady Skjei | D | 57 | 1 | 16 | 17 | -10 | 0 | 46 | 56 | 22:27 | |
| 47 | Michael McCarron | R | 56 | 5 | 7 | 12 | -13 | 0 | 157 | 56 | 14:31 | |
| 83 | Adam Wilsby | D | 43 | 1 | 11 | 12 | -4 | 0 | 17 | 35 | 16:55 | |
| 41 | Nicolas Hague | D | 43 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -11 | 0 | 54 | 37 | 19:16 | |
| 36 | Cole Smith | L | 38 | 6 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 0 | 111 | 11 | 14:29 | |
| 48 | Nick Perbix | D | 54 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -14 | 0 | 24 | 56 | 19:21 | |
| 40 | Fedor Svechkov | C | 49 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -8 | 0 | 41 | 20 | 12:02 | |
| 24 | Spencer Stastney → EDM | D | 30 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 14:51 | |
| 17 | Tyson Jost | C | 44 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -16 | 0 | 49 | 13 | 11:15 | |
| 49 | Reid Schaefer | L | 27 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 0 | 68 | 20 | 10:13 | |
| 20 | Justin Barron | D | 32 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 0 | 22 | 32 | 13:58 | |
| 89 | Ozzy Wiesblatt | C | 30 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 0 | 74 | 14 | 10:19 | |
| 8 | Andreas Englund | D | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 8:49 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 05 | @ WSH | 4 - 2 | L |
| Feb 04 | vs MIN | 5 - 6 | L (OT/SO) |
| Feb 02 | vs STL | 6 - 5 | W |
| Jan 31 | @ NYI | 3 - 4 | W |
| Jan 29 | @ NJD | 3 - 2 | L (OT/SO) |
| Jan 27 | @ BOS | 3 - 2 | L (OT/SO) |
| Jan 24 | vs UTA | 2 - 5 | L |
| Jan 22 | vs OTT | 5 - 3 | W |
| Jan 20 | vs BUF | 3 - 5 | L |
| Jan 17 | @ VGK | 7 - 2 | L |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 20:00 | vs Chicago Blackhawks | Home | 42.4% | 1.20 | NSH (54%) |
| Feb 28, 20:00 | @ Dallas Stars | Away | 63.9% | 0.94 | DAL (60%) |
| Mar 02, 14:00 | vs Detroit Red Wings | Home | 55.5% | 1.08 | DET (53%) |
| Mar 03, 19:00 | @ Columbus Blue Jackets | Away | 60.7% | 0.94 | CBJ (61%) |
| Mar 05, 20:00 | vs Boston Bruins | Home | 59.9% | 1.13 | NSH (50%) |
| Mar 07, 17:30 | @ Buffalo Sabres | Away | 59.0% | 0.97 | BUF (59%) |
| Mar 10, 22:00 | @ Seattle Kraken | Away | 53.4% | 0.99 | SEA (57%) |
| Mar 12, 22:00 | @ Vancouver Canucks | Away | 32.8% | 1.30 | NSH (60%) |
| Mar 15, 20:00 | @ Edmonton Oilers | Away | 52.1% | 1.01 | EDM (57%) |
| Mar 17, 20:00 | @ Winnipeg Jets | Away | 45.7% | 1.04 | WPG (55%) |
| Total Expected (Next 10 games): | 10.6 pts | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.