hockeystats.io

Dallas StarsDAL 5–4 Final/SO Colorado AvalancheCOL

Saturday, October 11, 2025

Final/SO 1st2nd3rdOTSO T SOG
Dallas StarsDAL 12102 5 22
Colorado AvalancheCOL 02201 4 39

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
18:51 DAL Thomas Harley (1) Mikko Rantanen (3), Nils Lundkvist (2) · slap xG 0.06 1–0 ▶
2nd Period
3:54 COL Martin Necas (3) Nathan MacKinnon (3), Sam Malinski (1) · wrist xG 0.05 1–1 ▶
10:07 COL Gavin Brindley (1) Victor Olofsson (2) · snap xG 0.21 1–2 ▶
15:22 DAL Nathan Bastian (1) Esa Lindell (1), Miro Heiskanen (1) · wrist xG 0.87 2–2 ▶
18:25 DAL Jason Robertson (2) Thomas Harley (3), Ilya Lyubushkin (1) · tip-in xG 0.07 3–2 ▶
3rd Period
0:34 COL Artturi Lehkonen (2) Nathan MacKinnon (4), Martin Necas (2) · snap xG 0.21 3–3 ▶
1:58 DAL Wyatt Johnston (2) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.31 4–3 ▶
10:46 COL Nathan MacKinnon (2)PP Martin Necas (3), Brent Burns (1) · snap xG 0.13 4–4 ▶
Overtime
No scoring
Shootout
DAL Jason Robertson vs Scott Wedgewood Goal
COL Victor Olofsson vs Jake Oettinger Saved
DAL Matt Duchene vs Scott Wedgewood Saved
COL Valeri Nichushkin vs Jake Oettinger Goal
DAL Mikko Rantanen vs Scott Wedgewood Goal
COL Nathan MacKinnon vs Jake Oettinger Saved

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

DAL 43%Deserve to win57% COL
DALCOL
3.15Expected goals3.60
4Goals (no shootout)4
2.54Expected goals, 5 on 52.34
41Shot attempts84
33Unblocked attempts58
22Shots on goal39

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
0:10 DAL xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced COL 1.27–0.10
In xG over 10 minutes, 10:10 of the 2nd to 0:10 of the 3rd; goals 2–0

Shot map

DAL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ COL shoots
Thomas Harley: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 3:28) Miro Heiskanen: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:50) Valeri Nichushkin: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 4:37) Gabriel Landeskog: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 4:49) Roope Hintz: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 5:54) Valeri Nichushkin: tip-in, 24 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:12) Thomas Harley: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:51) Valeri Nichushkin: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 7:58) Cale Makar: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:13) Artturi Lehkonen: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 8:41) Cale Makar: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 8:46) Brock Nelson: slap, 27 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 8:55) Victor Olofsson: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 9:27) Cale Makar: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 9:33) Brent Burns: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:17) Jack Drury: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 11:17) Mikko Rantanen: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 12:22) Wyatt Johnston: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 12:42) Mavrik Bourque: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 13:39) Brock Nelson: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 15:10) Cale Makar: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:35) Nathan MacKinnon: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 15:51) Nathan MacKinnon: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 15:59) Gabriel Landeskog: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 16:58) Jason Robertson: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 17:17) Gabriel Landeskog: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:00) Wyatt Johnston: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:29) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 19:56) Cale Makar: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 0:55) Devon Toews: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:24) Valeri Nichushkin: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:16) Sam Malinski: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:21) Nathan Bastian: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 7:29) Cale Makar: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 8:23) Artturi Lehkonen: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 8:35) Brock Nelson: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 9:07) Valeri Nichushkin: tip-in, 25 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 9:14) Sam Malinski: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:34) Thomas Harley: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:38) Mikko Rantanen: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 12:45) Mikko Rantanen: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 12:50) Devon Toews: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 14:10) Wyatt Johnston: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:33) Nils Lundkvist: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:36) Jason Robertson: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 15:13) Ross Colton: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 16:00) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 16:29) Brent Burns: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:44) Victor Olofsson: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 1:30) Jack Drury: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 1:32) Miro Heiskanen: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:02) Brock Nelson: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 3:47) Sam Malinski: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 4:04) Matt Duchene: backhand, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:33) Jason Robertson: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 5:12) Cale Makar: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 7:33) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 7:44) Artturi Lehkonen: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 8:03) Esa Lindell: wrist, 159 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 8:35) Roope Hintz: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:19) Brent Burns: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:43) Josh Manson: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:49) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 12:18) Artturi Lehkonen: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 12:18) Artturi Lehkonen: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 12:33) Ilya Solovyov: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 12:39) Josh Manson: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 13:31) Devon Toews: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 13:38) Sam Steel: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 15:33) Esa Lindell: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 15:42) Jack Drury: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 16:48) Martin Necas: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 17:36) Sam Steel: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 18:09) Wyatt Johnston: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 18:48) Jason Robertson: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.27 (P3 18:50) Jason Robertson: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 18:51) Mikko Rantanen: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 18:57) Gabriel Landeskog: wrist, 96 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 19:16) Valeri Nichushkin: tip-in, 26 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 19:20) Valeri Nichushkin: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 19:32) Brock Nelson: slap, 5 ft, xG 0.12 (OT 2:41) Mikko Rantanen: backhand, 25 ft, xG 0.04 (OT 3:05) Martin Necas: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.09 (OT 4:19) Thomas Harley: GOAL, slap, 44 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 18:51) Martin Necas: GOAL, wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 3:54) Gavin Brindley: GOAL, snap, 7 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 10:07) Nathan Bastian: GOAL, wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.87 (P2 15:22) Jason Robertson: GOAL, tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 18:25) Artturi Lehkonen: GOAL, snap, 6 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 0:34) Wyatt Johnston: GOAL, wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.31 (P3 1:58) Nathan MacKinnon: GOAL, snap, 31 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 10:46)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Dallas Stars

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
24 Roope Hintz 000 +1 20.09 1222:26
53 Wyatt Johnston 101 +1 50.57 0221:29
96 Mikko Rantanen 011 +1 50.37 0021:15
21 Jason Robertson 101 +3 90.74 1020:21
91 Tyler Seguin 000 +1 00.00 1118:21
95 Matt Duchene 000 +1 20.01 1316:46
18 Sam Steel 000 -1 20.13 0114:49
12 Radek Faksa 000 -2 10.00 0213:21
15 Colin Blackwell 000 -1 00.00 2011:40
22 Mavrik Bourque 000 0 10.10 1010:37
11 Nathan Bastian 101 -1 20.90 3107:04
49 Justin Hryckowian 000 0 00.00 2006:23
Defense
55 Thomas Harley 112 0 60.18 0425:52
4 Miro Heiskanen 011 +1 20.02 0225:07
23 Esa Lindell 011 0 20.03 3224:46
5 Nils Lundkvist 011 -2 10.01 0117:09
6 Lian Bichsel 000 +1 00.00 2414:49
46 Ilya Lyubushkin 011 +2 10.00 0013:37
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jake Oettinger 39435 .897 3.60 -0.40

Colorado Avalanche

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
29 Nathan MacKinnon 123 +2 90.50 2025:01
11 Brock Nelson 000 -2 50.45 1024:01
88 Martin Necas 123 +2 40.31 0023:11
62 Artturi Lehkonen 101 +2 80.54 0022:16
43 Valeri Nichushkin 000 -2 80.39 0018:01
92 Gabriel Landeskog 000 -1 50.15 5016:14
18 Jack Drury 000 -1 40.25 1014:45
95 Victor Olofsson 011 -1 30.10 0113:45
17 Parker Kelly 000 -1 10.00 1010:55
79 Ross Colton 000 -1 30.06 3010:41
22 Joel Kiviranta 000 0 00.00 2009:23
54 Gavin Brindley 101 0 10.21 0006:25
Defense
7 Devon Toews 000 -1 60.07 0028:00
8 Cale Makar 000 +1 120.34 2126:23
84 Brent Burns 011 -2 50.08 0120:35
42 Josh Manson 000 +2 50.06 2216:11
70 Sam Malinski 011 -1 30.08 0015:39
7 Ilya Solovyov 000 -1 20.02 0309:34
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Scott Wedgewood 22418 .818 3.15 -0.85

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Dallas Stars

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
21 Jason Robertson L +2.85 +0.75 +0.48 +1.53 +0.15 0.00 -0.06 — 20:21
53 Wyatt Johnston C +2.64 +0.75 +0.37 +1.25 +0.15 +0.03 +0.08 — 21:29
11 Nathan Bastian R +1.74 +0.75 +0.58 +0.36 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 7:04
55 Thomas Harley D +1.67 +1.45 +0.12 +0.05 -0.15 0.00 +0.20 — 25:52
4 Miro Heiskanen D +1.50 +0.55 +0.02 +0.83 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 25:07
23 Esa Lindell D +1.38 +0.70 +0.02 +0.59 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 24:46
91 Tyler Seguin C +0.77 0.00 0.00 +0.74 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 18:21
46 Ilya Lyubushkin D +0.56 +0.55 0.00 +0.45 -0.30 0.00 -0.14 — 13:37
95 Matt Duchene C +0.50 0.00 0.00 +0.34 0.00 -0.02 +0.17 — 16:46
96 Mikko Rantanen R +0.15 +0.70 +0.24 -0.61 -0.15 -0.01 -0.02 — 21:15
49 Justin Hryckowian C -0.06 0.00 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 6:23
24 Roope Hintz C -0.13 0.00 +0.06 -0.34 0.00 +0.05 +0.10 — 22:26
15 Colin Blackwell C -0.23 0.00 0.00 -0.21 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 11:40
6 Lian Bichsel D -0.30 0.00 0.00 -0.29 -0.15 0.00 +0.14 — 14:49
5 Nils Lundkvist D -0.31 +0.55 +0.01 -0.90 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:09
22 Mavrik Bourque C -0.32 0.00 +0.07 -0.38 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 10:37
29 Jake Oettinger G -0.40 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.40 65:00
18 Sam Steel C -0.51 0.00 +0.08 -0.63 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 14:49
12 Radek Faksa C -0.79 0.00 0.00 -0.93 0.00 +0.04 +0.10 — 13:21

Colorado Avalanche

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
29 Nathan MacKinnon C +3.39 +2.15 +0.33 +0.91 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 25:01
88 Martin Necas C +2.82 +2.00 +0.20 +0.54 +0.15 0.00 -0.06 — 23:11
62 Artturi Lehkonen L +1.94 +0.75 +0.35 +0.87 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 22:16
8 Cale Makar D +0.88 0.00 +0.22 +0.57 0.00 0.00 +0.09 — 26:23
54 Gavin Brindley C +0.86 +0.75 +0.14 -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 6:25
70 Sam Malinski D +0.67 +0.55 +0.05 +0.09 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:39
42 Josh Manson D +0.66 0.00 +0.04 +0.70 -0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 16:11
95 Victor Olofsson L +0.50 +0.70 +0.07 -0.32 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 13:45
94 Joel Kiviranta L +0.47 0.00 0.00 +0.18 +0.30 +0.01 -0.02 — 9:23
17 Parker Kelly C +0.12 0.00 0.00 +0.14 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 10:55
18 Jack Drury C -0.09 0.00 +0.16 -0.25 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 14:45
7 Devon Toews D -0.10 0.00 +0.05 -0.13 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 28:00
13 Valeri Nichushkin R -0.30 0.00 +0.25 -0.53 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:01
84 Brent Burns D -0.48 +0.55 +0.05 -1.11 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 20:35
20 Ross Colton C -0.58 0.00 +0.04 -0.60 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 10:41
28 Ilya Solovyov D -0.69 0.00 +0.01 -0.85 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 9:34
92 Gabriel Landeskog L -0.75 0.00 +0.09 -0.84 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:14
11 Brock Nelson C -0.77 0.00 +0.29 -1.18 +0.15 -0.01 -0.02 — 24:01
41 Scott Wedgewood G -0.85 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.85 65:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.