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Nashville PredatorsNSH 4–1 Final Ottawa SenatorsOTT

Monday, October 13, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Nashville PredatorsNSH 013 4 26
Ottawa SenatorsOTT 001 1 32

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
12:11 NSH Jonathan Marchessault (1) Michael Bunting (1), Erik Haula (2) · wrist xG 0.16 1–0 ▶
3rd Period
14:38 NSH Ryan O'Reilly (2) Steven Stamkos (1), Filip Forsberg (2) · snap xG 0.24 2–0 ▶
17:57 OTT Ridly Greig (1)PP Dylan Cozens (1), Jake Sanderson (3) · deflected xG 0.13 2–1 ▶
19:06 NSH Jonathan Marchessault (2)EN Roman Josi (2) · wrist xG 0.82 3–1 ▶
19:48 NSH Cole Smith (1)EN Luke Evangelista (2) · wrist xG 0.90 4–1 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

NSH 32%Deserve to win68% OTT
NSHOTT
4.45Expected goals3.05
4Goals (no shootout)1
1.28Expected goals, 5 on 51.95
56Shot attempts66
37Unblocked attempts49
26Shots on goal32

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
4:15 OTT Deserve to win Deserve to win · OTT takes the lead, 62–38%
NSH had led since 10:28 of the 1st, by as much as 69%
14:28 NSH Goalie Goalie · Saros +2.0 goals saved
0 goals on 2.01 xG, 26 shots on goal
18:07 OTT Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Ullmark, down 2–1
With 1:53 left; NSH scored at 19:06 of the 3rd (3–1)
19:14 OTT Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Ullmark, down 3–1
With 0:46 left; NSH scored at 19:48 of the 3rd (4–1)

Shot map

NSH shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ OTT shoots
Jake Sanderson: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:56) Brady Skjei: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:32) Filip Forsberg: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 2:27) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 2:59) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 3:00) Jordan Spence: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 4:11) Claude Giroux: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 5:39) Tim Stützle: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 5:50) Cole Smith: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 6:48) Tim Stützle: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 7:23) Artem Zub: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:06) Artem Zub: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 8:44) Brady Skjei: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:01) Steven Stamkos: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 10:24) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 10:28) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 11:38) Roman Josi: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 12:06) Michael McCarron: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:54) Roman Josi: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:16) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:22) Jake Sanderson: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:32) Nick Perbix: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 4:12) Shane Pinto: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:34) Tyler Kleven: wrist, 73 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:18) Nick Cousins: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:28) Olle Lycksell: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 5:50) Jordan Spence: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 5:52) Artem Zub: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 5:56) Claude Giroux: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 6:23) Jonathan Marchessault: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:48) Roman Josi: wrap-around, 7 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:30) Ryan O'Reilly: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 10:33) Shane Pinto: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 10:51) Tyson Jost: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 11:29) Nick Jensen: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:38) Nick Jensen: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:43) Tim Stützle: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 14:00) Michael Amadio: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 15:17) Jake Sanderson: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:55) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 17:05) Jake Sanderson: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 17:13) Fabian Zetterlund: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 17:45) Jordan Spence: slap, 25 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 18:15) Roman Josi: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:17) Michael Amadio: backhand, 23 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:52) Fabian Zetterlund: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 0:44) Jordan Spence: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 1:07) Tyler Kleven: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:22) Dylan Cozens: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 1:41) Olle Lycksell: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 2:41) Spencer Stastney: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:51) Michael Amadio: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 4:15) Dylan Cozens: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:29) Ridly Greig: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 5:31) Ryan O'Reilly: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 5:54) Justin Barron: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 6:06) Fedor Svechkov: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 6:48) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 6:55) Luke Evangelista: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 7:05) Adam Wilsby: slap, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:44) Michael McCarron: wrist, 74 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 8:20) Fedor Svechkov: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 8:35) Tyson Jost: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 8:58) Tim Stützle: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 9:09) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 10:45) Nick Jensen: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 10:58) Steven Stamkos: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 12:28) Brady Skjei: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:33) Thomas Chabot: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:28) Tim Stützle: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 15:15) Tim Stützle: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.35 (P3 15:18) Claude Giroux: backhand, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:42) Michael McCarron: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 16:14) Fabian Zetterlund: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 16:33) Nick Perbix: wrist, 183 ft, xG 0.36 (P3 16:46) David Perron: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 17:13) Jake Sanderson: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:17) Dylan Cozens: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 17:51) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 79 ft, xG 0.34 (P3 18:22) Fabian Zetterlund: tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 19:33) Fabian Zetterlund: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 19:35) Jonathan Marchessault: GOAL, wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 12:11) Ryan O'Reilly: GOAL, snap, 21 ft, xG 0.24 (P3 14:38) Ridly Greig: GOAL, deflected, 10 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 17:57) Jonathan Marchessault: GOAL, wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.82 (P3 19:06) Cole Smith: GOAL, wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.90 (P3 19:48)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Nashville Predators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
90 Ryan O'Reilly 101 +1 30.39 1020:06
9 Filip Forsberg 011 +2 40.17 2019:42
81 Jonathan Marchessault 202 +2 60.99 3118:46
91 Steven Stamkos 011 +1 50.71 0117:22
47 Michael McCarron 000 +1 40.06 4116:23
22 Cole Smith 101 +1 51.09 1215:49
58 Michael Bunting 011 +1 10.00 1115:42
56 Erik Haula 011 +2 00.00 2114:01
77 Luke Evangelista 011 +1 30.17 0011:33
17 Tyson Jost 000 0 20.11 2011:11
9 Fedor Svechkov 000 0 20.12 0010:06
Defense
59 Roman Josi 011 +3 50.18 1124:54
76 Brady Skjei 000 0 60.03 0122:56
48 Nick Perbix 000 0 40.38 0217:15
2 Adam Wilsby 000 +2 20.01 0017:02
72 Justin Barron 000 +2 10.04 2115:35
24 Spencer Stastney 000 +1 20.01 0113:43
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Juuse Saros 32131 .969 3.05 +2.05

Ottawa Senators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
18 Tim Stützle 000 -1 110.61 3222:31
12 Shane Pinto 000 -1 20.07 2119:20
71 Ridly Greig 101 -1 20.23 0018:26
24 Dylan Cozens 011 -3 30.21 7016:43
28 Claude Giroux 000 -1 40.26 0016:34
20 Fabian Zetterlund 000 -2 50.45 2014:50
8 Brady Tkachuk 000 0 50.25 6013:53
22 Michael Amadio 000 -1 30.23 2013:29
20 Lars Eller 000 -2 10.00 0112:41
16 David Perron 000 -2 10.08 0012:24
21 Nick Cousins 000 0 10.01 1008:14
Defense
85 Jake Sanderson 011 -1 80.06 0225:58
72 Thomas Chabot 000 -2 20.01 0122:22
10 Jordan Spence 000 -2 80.29 0217:44
2 Artem Zub 000 0 30.01 1117:42
4 Nick Jensen 000 -1 30.03 2215:51
43 Tyler Kleven 000 -1 20.01 2313:53
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Linus Ullmark 24222 .917 2.04 +0.04

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Nashville Predators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
74 Juuse Saros G +2.05 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +2.05 60:00
81 Jonathan Marchessault R +1.80 +1.50 +0.64 -0.36 0.00 +0.01 +0.01 — 18:46
91 Steven Stamkos C +1.52 +0.70 +0.46 +0.33 0.00 -0.04 +0.07 — 17:22
90 Ryan O'Reilly C +1.10 +0.75 +0.25 +0.19 0.00 -0.07 -0.02 — 20:06
9 Filip Forsberg L +1.05 +0.55 +0.11 +0.25 +0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 19:42
77 Luke Evangelista R +0.98 +0.70 +0.11 +0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:33
36 Cole Smith R +0.92 +0.75 +0.71 -0.62 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 15:49
59 Roman Josi D +0.84 +0.70 +0.12 +0.14 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 24:54
58 Michael Bunting L +0.67 +0.70 0.00 -0.19 +0.15 -0.02 +0.03 — 15:42
25 Joakim Kemell R +0.11 0.00 0.00 +0.07 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 9:46
40 Fedor Svechkov C +0.08 0.00 +0.08 +0.20 -0.15 -0.03 -0.02 — 10:06
20 Justin Barron D +0.07 0.00 +0.02 -0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 15:35
24 Spencer Stastney D +0.05 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 13:43
83 Adam Wilsby D +0.01 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:02
56 Erik Haula L -0.08 +0.55 0.00 -0.31 -0.30 -0.07 +0.05 — 14:01
76 Brady Skjei D -0.26 0.00 +0.02 -0.58 +0.30 0.00 +0.01 — 22:56
48 Nick Perbix D -0.29 0.00 +0.25 -0.49 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 17:15
17 Tyson Jost C -0.37 0.00 +0.07 -0.47 0.00 +0.01 +0.02 — 11:11
47 Michael McCarron C -0.54 0.00 +0.04 -0.51 0.00 -0.10 +0.03 — 16:23

Ottawa Senators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
18 Tim Stützle C +1.32 0.00 +0.39 +0.65 +0.15 +0.08 +0.04 — 22:31
85 Jake Sanderson D +1.25 +0.55 +0.04 +0.56 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 25:58
22 Michael Amadio R +1.20 0.00 +0.15 +0.95 +0.15 -0.01 -0.04 — 13:29
71 Ridly Greig C +1.09 +0.75 +0.15 0.00 +0.15 +0.03 0.00 — 18:26
10 Jordan Spence D +0.67 0.00 +0.19 +0.37 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 17:44
15 Olle Lycksell R +0.52 0.00 +0.14 +0.38 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 8:18
7 Brady Tkachuk L +0.38 0.00 +0.16 +0.07 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 13:53
21 Nick Cousins C +0.37 0.00 +0.01 +0.25 +0.15 -0.02 -0.02 — 8:14
24 Dylan Cozens C +0.35 +0.70 +0.14 -0.51 0.00 +0.06 -0.04 — 16:43
28 Claude Giroux R +0.26 0.00 +0.17 +0.04 0.00 +0.07 -0.02 — 16:34
2 Artem Zub D +0.12 0.00 +0.01 +0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:42
43 Tyler Kleven D +0.06 0.00 +0.01 +0.09 -0.15 0.00 +0.11 — 13:53
35 Linus Ullmark G +0.04 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.04 57:07
3 Nick Jensen D -0.05 0.00 +0.02 -0.02 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 15:51
57 David Perron L -0.07 0.00 +0.05 +0.05 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 12:24
12 Shane Pinto C -0.07 0.00 +0.05 +0.07 -0.30 +0.08 +0.03 — 19:20
89 Lars Eller C -0.08 0.00 0.00 -0.16 0.00 +0.03 +0.05 — 12:41
72 Thomas Chabot D -0.17 0.00 +0.01 -0.23 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 22:22
20 Fabian Zetterlund L -0.18 0.00 +0.29 -0.48 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 14:50

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.