hockeystats.io

Detroit Red WingsDET 3–2 Final Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

Monday, October 13, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Detroit Red WingsDET 102 3 15
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 002 2 40

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
18:55 DET Dylan Larkin (2)PP Alex DeBrincat (4), Lucas Raymond (1) · backhand xG 0.27 1–0 ▶
2nd Period
No scoring
3rd Period
4:25 DET James van Riemsdyk (1) Andrew Copp (1) · wrist xG 0.11 2–0 ▶
7:29 TOR Matthew Knies (1) Bobby McMann (1) · tip-in xG 0.14 2–1 ▶
13:42 TOR Calle Jarnkrok (3) Auston Matthews (1), Matthew Knies (2) · wrist xG 0.10 2–2 ▶
19:15 DET Mason Appleton (1) Ben Chiarot (1), Emmitt Finnie (2) · wrist xG 0.05 3–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

DET 27%Deserve to win73% TOR
DETTOR
1.93Expected goals3.28
3Goals (no shootout)2
1.19Expected goals, 5 on 52.40
39Shot attempts75
29Unblocked attempts53
15Shots on goal40

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
10:20 TOR Deserve to win Deserve to win · TOR takes the lead, 60–40%
DET had led since 2:29 of the 1st, by as much as 61%
2nd Period
2:43 DET Deserve to win Deserve to win · DET takes the lead, 61–39%
TOR had led since 10:20 of the 1st, by as much as 66%
3rd Period
4:15 DET Goalie Goalie · Talbot +2.0 goals saved
0 goals on 2.01 xG, 28 shots on goal
4:20 DET No shift No shift · Raymond, 21:10 on the bench
No shift after 8:45 of the 2nd; 13 shifts (7:58) before that
7:29 TOR Deserve to win Deserve to win · TOR takes the lead, 61–39%
DET had led since 2:43 of the 2nd, by as much as 61%
18:40 TOR No shift No shift · Robertson, 11:06 on the bench
No shift after 4:18 of the 3rd; 12 shifts (8:40) before that
19:24 TOR Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Stolarz, down 3–2
With 0:36 left

Shot map

DET shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TOR shoots
Patrick Kane: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 1:21) James van Riemsdyk: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 2:29) Lucas Raymond: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:28) Auston Matthews: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 3:36) John Tavares: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 4:19) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:30) Alex DeBrincat: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 5:01) John Tavares: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 7:59) Moritz Seider: backhand, 27 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:58) Calle Jarnkrok: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:29) Dakota Joshua: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.30 (P1 9:32) Dylan Larkin: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 9:56) Matthew Knies: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 10:16) Auston Matthews: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 10:20) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:25) Nicolas Roy: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 10:56) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:04) Nick Robertson: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 12:33) Ben Chiarot: snap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:54) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 14:41) Moritz Seider: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:57) Moritz Seider: wrist, 73 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:19) Simon Benoit: wrist, 117 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 17:48) Marco Kasper: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:25) Axel Sandin-Pellikka: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:31) Alex DeBrincat: slap, 17 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 18:49) Dylan Larkin: snap, 6 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 18:50) Dylan Larkin: snap, 6 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 18:51) Matthew Knies: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 0:14) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:12) Alex DeBrincat: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:47) Albert Johansson: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:00) Mason Appleton: tip-in, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 2:12) Jacob Bernard-Docker: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 2:43) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 153 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 4:48) Moritz Seider: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 6:03) Simon Benoit: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 7:40) Auston Matthews: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 8:56) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:12) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 11:20) Auston Matthews: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 11:42) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 11:44) Michael Rasmussen: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.24 (P2 12:55) Auston Matthews: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 13:13) Auston Matthews: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:19) Auston Matthews: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 14:53) Auston Matthews: slap, 28 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 16:13) Calle Jarnkrok: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 17:56) Bobby McMann: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:34) Andrew Copp: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:03) Simon Edvinsson: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 1:10) Bobby McMann: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:35) Nick Robertson: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 1:44) Bobby McMann: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 1:52) J.T. Compher: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 3:11) Bobby McMann: deflected, 17 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 4:15) Jake McCabe: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:55) Auston Matthews: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 5:16) Auston Matthews: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 5:17) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:11) William Nylander: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:23) Alex DeBrincat: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:35) Patrick Kane: backhand, 24 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:45) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 9:30) Matthew Knies: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 9:43) Simon Benoit: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:52) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 10:13) John Tavares: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 11:10) William Nylander: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 12:06) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 16:08) Bobby McMann: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 16:49) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:56) William Nylander: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 17:43) Mason Appleton: backhand, 26 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 18:56) Easton Cowan: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 19:41) Easton Cowan: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 19:42) John Tavares: bat, 14 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 19:58) Dylan Larkin: GOAL, backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.27 (P1 18:55) James van Riemsdyk: GOAL, wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 4:25) Matthew Knies: GOAL, tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 7:29) Calle Jarnkrok: GOAL, wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 13:42) Mason Appleton: GOAL, wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 19:15)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Detroit Red Wings

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
37 J.T. Compher 000 -2 20.09 0020:31
71 Dylan Larkin 101 +1 40.50 1018:39
93 Alex DeBrincat 011 -1 40.25 0218:35
88 Patrick Kane 000 -1 20.16 0117:47
92 Marco Kasper 000 0 10.04 2016:02
58 Emmitt Finnie 011 +1 00.00 6115:54
18 Andrew Copp 011 0 10.01 0114:58
22 Mason Appleton 101 +1 30.14 0013:36
27 Michael Rasmussen 000 +1 20.24 1311:03
21 James van Riemsdyk 101 +1 20.19 0110:09
23 Lucas Raymond 011 0 10.02 0007:58
Defense
53 Moritz Seider 000 +2 50.04 1126:22
44 Axel Sandin-Pellikka 000 -2 10.04 0322:12
8 Ben Chiarot 011 +2 40.01 2321:59
77 Simon Edvinsson 000 -2 20.04 0220:17
25 Jacob Bernard-Docker 000 0 10.16 1012:17
20 Albert Johansson 000 0 10.01 1112:12
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Cam Talbot 40238 .950 3.28 +1.28

Toronto Maple Leafs

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
34 Auston Matthews 011 +1 140.67 2322:34
89 Matthew Knies 112 +1 60.29 2022:31
88 William Nylander 000 -2 50.10 0119:42
91 John Tavares 000 -1 60.34 2016:30
53 Easton Cowan 000 0 40.19 3014:05
74 Bobby McMann 011 +1 50.31 3113:30
11 Max Domi 000 0 00.00 0012:50
63 Matias Maccelli 000 -1 20.04 0112:22
10 Nicolas Roy 000 0 10.08 1012:12
19 Calle Jarnkrok 101 +1 30.24 1012:04
81 Dakota Joshua 000 0 20.30 0009:18
14 Nick Robertson 000 0 20.09 1008:40
Defense
44 Morgan Rielly 000 -2 70.19 1022:21
22 Jake McCabe 000 +1 20.02 0021:41
8 Chris Tanev 000 +1 20.00 1119:00
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 000 0 40.13 1118:46
44 Simon Benoit 000 +1 50.18 3117:25
25 Brandon Carlo 000 -1 50.12 1117:12
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Anthony Stolarz 15312 .800 1.93 -1.07

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Detroit Red Wings

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
39 Cam Talbot G +1.28 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.28 59:47
21 James van Riemsdyk L +1.11 +0.75 +0.12 +0.18 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 10:09
8 Ben Chiarot D +0.78 +0.70 +0.01 -0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.17 — 21:59
22 Mason Appleton C +0.62 +0.75 +0.09 -0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:36
27 Michael Rasmussen C +0.54 0.00 +0.15 +0.24 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 11:03
93 Alex DeBrincat R +0.47 +0.70 +0.16 -0.47 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 18:35
18 Andrew Copp C +0.38 +0.70 +0.01 -0.30 0.00 -0.04 +0.01 — 14:58
23 Lucas Raymond L +0.36 +0.55 +0.01 -0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 7:58
71 Dylan Larkin C +0.21 +0.75 +0.32 -0.55 -0.30 +0.01 -0.02 — 18:39
58 Emmitt Finnie C +0.19 +0.55 0.00 -0.41 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 15:54
20 Albert Johansson D +0.03 0.00 +0.01 -0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.09 — 12:12
25 Jacob Bernard-Docker D -0.02 0.00 +0.10 -0.09 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 12:17
53 Moritz Seider D -0.07 0.00 +0.03 -0.16 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 26:22
37 J.T. Compher L -0.25 0.00 +0.06 -0.37 +0.15 -0.07 -0.02 — 20:31
28 Michael Brandsegg-Nygård R -0.48 0.00 0.00 -0.51 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 13:42
88 Patrick Kane R -0.55 0.00 +0.10 -0.85 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 17:47
92 Marco Kasper C -0.56 0.00 +0.03 -0.55 0.00 -0.04 0.00 — 16:02
77 Simon Edvinsson D -0.82 0.00 +0.03 -0.95 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 20:17
44 Axel Sandin-Pellikka D -1.16 0.00 +0.03 -1.32 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 22:12

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
23 Matthew Knies L +2.58 +1.30 +0.19 +0.90 +0.15 0.00 +0.04 — 22:31
34 Auston Matthews C +2.26 +0.70 +0.43 +0.90 0.00 +0.11 +0.11 — 22:34
19 Calle Jarnkrok C +1.60 +0.75 +0.15 +0.69 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:04
74 Bobby McMann C +1.44 +0.70 +0.20 +0.51 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 13:30
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D +1.07 0.00 +0.08 +0.83 +0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 18:46
2 Simon Benoit D +0.90 0.00 +0.11 +1.06 -0.30 0.00 +0.03 — 17:25
8 Chris Tanev D +0.77 0.00 0.00 +0.68 0.00 0.00 +0.09 — 19:00
22 Jake McCabe D +0.67 0.00 +0.01 +0.72 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 21:41
81 Dakota Joshua C +0.59 0.00 +0.20 +0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:18
53 Easton Cowan R +0.44 0.00 +0.12 +0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:05
55 Nicolas Roy C +0.32 0.00 +0.05 +0.36 0.00 -0.05 -0.04 — 12:12
89 Nick Robertson L +0.25 0.00 +0.06 +0.23 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 8:40
91 John Tavares C +0.21 0.00 +0.22 -0.08 0.00 +0.11 -0.04 — 16:30
11 Max Domi C +0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.17 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 12:50
63 Matias Maccelli L -0.10 0.00 +0.03 -0.18 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 12:22
25 Brandon Carlo D -0.12 0.00 +0.08 -0.23 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:12
88 William Nylander R -0.13 0.00 +0.06 -0.19 0.00 -0.01 +0.01 — 19:42
44 Morgan Rielly D -0.42 0.00 +0.12 -0.38 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 22:21
41 Anthony Stolarz G -1.07 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.07 59:04

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.