| Final | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 28 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 33 |
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 15:47 | Timo Meier (2)PP Jack Hughes (2), Jesper Bratt (2) · wrist xG 0.06 | 1–0 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 8:49 | Kirill Marchenko (4) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.26 | 1–1 ▶ | |
| 11:09 | Dawson Mercer (1)PP Arseny Gritsyuk (3), Ondrej Palat (1) · slap xG 0.18 | 2–1 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 19:03 | Dawson Mercer (2)EN Nico Hischier (2), Brenden Dillon (1) · wrist xG 0.51 | 3–1 ▶ | |
| 19:39 | Dmitri Voronkov (2) Ivan Provorov (2) · poke xG 0.22 | 3–2 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| NJD | CBJ | |
|---|---|---|
| 3.89 | Expected goals | 3.71 |
| 3 | Goals (no shootout) | 2 |
| 2.29 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 2.39 |
| 56 | Shot attempts | 70 |
| 43 | Unblocked attempts | 49 |
| 28 | Shots on goal | 33 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | CBJ | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced NJD 1.42–0.03
In xG over 10 minutes, 1:00 to 11:00 of the 1st; neither team scored |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 1:00 | NJD | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced CBJ 1.72–0.20
In xG over 10 minutes, 11:30 of the 1st to 1:30 of the 2nd; goals 1–0 |
| 4:30 | CBJ | No shift | No shift · Wood, 37:19 on the bench
No shift after 6:08 of the 1st; 3 shifts (1:17) before that |
| 20:00 | NJD | Goalie change | Goalie change · Markstrom in for Allen
The start of the 3rd; Allen had allowed 1 goal on 24 shots (2.43 xG) |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 17:35 | CBJ | Pulled goalie | Pulled goalie · Pulled Greaves, down 2–1
With 2:25 left; NJD scored at 19:03 of the 3rd (3–1) |
| 19:20 | CBJ | Pulled goalie | Pulled goalie · Pulled Greaves, down 3–1
With 0:40 left; CBJ scored at 19:39 of the 3rd (3–2) |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 13 | Nico Hischier | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 6 | 0.43 | 0 | 2 | 19:27 |
| 86 | Jack Hughes | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 3 | 0.07 | 0 | 2 | 18:40 |
| 16 | Connor Brown | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.84 | 0 | 2 | 16:55 |
| 63 | Jesper Bratt | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 | 0.25 | 1 | 0 | 16:50 |
| 91 | Dawson Mercer | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 7 | 0.84 | 1 | 1 | 16:35 |
| 28 | Timo Meier | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 7 | 0.38 | 0 | 0 | 16:02 |
| 81 | Arseny Gritsyuk | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.13 | 1 | 0 | 14:25 |
| 12 | Cody Glass | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.16 | 0 | 0 | 13:47 |
| 81 | Ondrej Palat | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 0.15 | 1 | 1 | 13:08 |
| 41 | Luke Glendening | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 10:24 |
| 47 | Paul Cotter | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 5 | 0 | 08:37 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 43 | Luke Hughes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.10 | 0 | 0 | 22:42 |
| 71 | Jonas Siegenthaler | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 21:42 |
| 7 | Dougie Hamilton | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 6 | 0.44 | 0 | 2 | 21:00 |
| 22 | Brett Pesce | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 0.05 | 0 | 2 | 20:19 |
| 5 | Brenden Dillon | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4 | 2 | 18:28 |
| 71 | Simon Nemec | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0 | 3 | 14:05 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen | 24 | 1 | 23 | .958 | 2.43 | +1.43 |
| Jacob Markstrom | 9 | 1 | 8 | .889 | 1.28 | +0.28 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 86 | Kirill Marchenko | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 0.85 | 1 | 1 | 24:24 |
| 23 | Sean Monahan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 1 | 1 | 22:45 |
| 91 | Kent Johnson | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0 | 0 | 19:23 |
| 22 | Boone Jenner | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.04 | 3 | 1 | 19:08 |
| 3 | Charlie Coyle | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.11 | 2 | 1 | 17:49 |
| 19 | Adam Fantilli | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 0.69 | 0 | 1 | 17:10 |
| 10 | Dmitri Voronkov | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 6 | 0.66 | 2 | 0 | 17:09 |
| 24 | Mathieu Olivier | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0.06 | 6 | 1 | 14:48 |
| 4 | Cole Sillinger | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 13:33 |
| 21 | Isac Lundeström | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 0 | 11:00 |
| 21 | Zachary Aston-Reese | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 1 | 0 | 07:51 |
| 18 | Miles Wood | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 0 | 01:17 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 8 | Zach Werenski | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0.38 | 1 | 0 | 29:14 |
| 9 | Ivan Provorov | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 0.06 | 0 | 1 | 21:05 |
| 78 | Damon Severson | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 0.17 | 0 | 2 | 20:42 |
| 15 | Dante Fabbro | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 0.01 | 0 | 3 | 19:56 |
| 5 | Denton Mateychuk | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0 | 0 | 13:16 |
| 2 | Jake Christiansen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 07:44 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jet Greaves | 27 | 2 | 25 | .926 | 3.10 | +1.10 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Brenden Dillon D | +1.74 | +0.55 | 0.00 | +1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | — | 18:28 |
| 91 Dawson Mercer C | +1.67 | +1.50 | +0.55 | -0.56 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 16:35 |
| 34 Jake Allen G | +1.43 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +1.43 | 40:00 |
| 16 Connor Brown R | +1.35 | 0.00 | +0.55 | +0.69 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.10 | — | 16:55 |
| 81 Arseny Gritsyuk R | +1.33 | +0.70 | +0.08 | +0.71 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 14:25 |
| 28 Timo Meier R | +1.19 | +0.75 | +0.25 | +0.19 | 0.00 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 16:02 |
| 63 Jesper Bratt L | +0.69 | +0.55 | +0.16 | -0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 16:50 |
| 86 Jack Hughes C | +0.57 | +0.70 | +0.04 | -0.13 | 0.00 | -0.07 | +0.02 | — | 18:40 |
| 14 Luke Glendening C | +0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 10:24 |
| 13 Nico Hischier C | +0.51 | +0.70 | +0.28 | -0.57 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.08 | — | 19:27 |
| 43 Luke Hughes D | +0.36 | 0.00 | +0.06 | +0.17 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 22:42 |
| 18 Ondrej Palat L | +0.31 | +0.55 | +0.10 | -0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 13:08 |
| 25 Jacob Markstrom G | +0.28 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +0.28 | 20:00 |
| 22 Brett Pesce D | +0.11 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.13 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 20:19 |
| 12 Cody Glass C | -0.12 | 0.00 | +0.10 | -0.14 | 0.00 | -0.08 | 0.00 | — | 13:47 |
| 7 Dougie Hamilton D | -0.26 | 0.00 | +0.29 | -0.35 | -0.30 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 21:00 |
| 48 Brian Halonen L | -0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 6:54 |
| 17 Simon Nemec D | -0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.35 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.11 | — | 14:05 |
| 47 Paul Cotter L | -0.75 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 8:37 |
| 71 Jonas Siegenthaler D | -1.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.03 | — | 21:42 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Dmitri Voronkov L | +2.08 | +0.75 | +0.43 | +0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 17:09 |
| 86 Kirill Marchenko R | +1.94 | +0.75 | +0.55 | +0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 24:24 |
| 15 Dante Fabbro D | +1.27 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +1.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.13 | — | 19:56 |
| 11 Miles Wood L | +1.15 | 0.00 | +0.24 | +0.61 | +0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 1:17 |
| 23 Sean Monahan C | +1.15 | 0.00 | +0.06 | +1.06 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | — | 22:45 |
| 73 Jet Greaves G | +1.10 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +1.10 | 57:52 |
| 8 Zach Werenski D | +0.99 | 0.00 | +0.25 | +0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.08 | — | 29:14 |
| 9 Ivan Provorov D | +0.85 | +0.70 | +0.04 | +0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 21:05 |
| 2 Jake Christiansen D | +0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 7:44 |
| 4 Cole Sillinger C | +0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.32 | -0.15 | -0.01 | -0.02 | — | 13:33 |
| 21 Isac Lundeström C | +0.04 | 0.00 | +0.07 | +0.01 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.06 | — | 11:00 |
| 19 Adam Fantilli C | -0.04 | 0.00 | +0.45 | -0.57 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.07 | — | 17:10 |
| 3 Charlie Coyle C | -0.07 | 0.00 | +0.07 | -0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 17:49 |
| 24 Mathieu Olivier R | -0.10 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.34 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 14:48 |
| 91 Kent Johnson C | -0.23 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 19:23 |
| 27 Zachary Aston-Reese C | -0.53 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 7:51 |
| 38 Boone Jenner C | -0.57 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.84 | +0.15 | +0.05 | +0.05 | — | 19:08 |
| 78 Damon Severson D | -0.80 | 0.00 | +0.11 | -0.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 | — | 20:42 |
| 5 Denton Mateychuk D | -0.87 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 13:16 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.