Columbus Blue Jackets
Metropolitan Division, Eastern Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 29 | 20 | 7 | 65 | 179 | 177 | +2 | 58.0% |
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Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Feb 20, 2026
Analysis
Summary
The Columbus Blue Jackets are right in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race, sitting just below the cutline with a 56.4% chance of qualifying. Their projected finish of 96.0 points is narrowly under the estimated cutoff of 96.7, meaning the margin for error is slim but the path is very real if current form holds.
Record and Recent Performance
Columbus is 29-20-7 through 56 games for 65 points and a solid 58.0% points percentage, supported by a modest +2 goal differential with 179 goals for and 177 against. Their overall team strength sits at a strong 60.7%, driven by excellent home performance at 65.8% and respectable road play at 54.0%. Most encouraging is their recent form rating of 90.0%, indicating they have been one of the hottest teams in the conference over the last stretch and are outperforming many direct rivals at the right time.
The Competition
The Blue Jackets currently sit 10th in the conference, but the gap is manageable with the New York Islanders holding the final playoff spot at 69 points and a projected 96.7 finish. Boston is just ahead at 69 points with a projection of 97.7, while Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Montreal have built small cushions and project above 99 points, making them tougher to chase down. Behind Columbus, Washington, Ottawa, and Toronto all project below 92 points, meaning the Jackets are far more likely to be fighting to climb past the Islanders and Bruins than worrying about being overtaken from below.
Remaining Schedule
Columbus has 26 games remaining, split favorably with 14 at home and 12 on the road, and their schedule is rated as average with opponent strength at 54.6%, only slightly above league average. With an expected 30.9 points still to be earned, the math puts them right on the bubble, as those points would leave them just shy of the projected cutoff. Given their strong home strength and current momentum, outperforming that expectation by even a couple of wins could be enough to swing the race in their favor.
Outlook
The Blue Jackets’ playoff hopes hinge on sustaining their recent surge and capitalizing on home ice, because the race around the cutline is extremely tight. If they play to their 60.7% team strength instead of merely league average down the stretch, Columbus has a realistic path to sneaking into the postseason, but any prolonged slump would likely leave them just on the outside looking in.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has already reached that threshold. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 56.3% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 93–99 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 95–97 points. Finishes above the cutline in 61.7% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Eastern Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 72 | 57 | 25 | 58.5% | 65.0% | 54.7% | 101.2 | 87.5% | |
| 5 | 70 | 57 | 25 | 59.0% | 65.0% | 54.5% | 99.3 | 81.8% | |
| 6 | 70 | 56 | 26 | 62.9% | 80.0% | 55.4% | 101.2 | 91.3% | |
| 7 | 69 | 57 | 25 | 59.9% | 75.0% | 56.0% | 97.7 | 70.1% | |
| 8 | 69 | 58 | 24 | 55.9% | 60.0% | 54.0% | 96.6 | 63.9% | |
| 9 | 65 | 59 | 23 | 54.2% | 55.0% | 53.5% | 91.2 | 20.4% | |
| 10 | 65 | 56 | 26 | 60.7% | 90.0% | 54.6% | 95.9 | 56.3% | |
| 11 | 63 | 57 | 25 | 55.5% | 65.0% | 53.8% | 91.8 | 20.4% | |
| 12 | 63 | 57 | 25 | 49.8% | 45.0% | 54.3% | 89.8 | 9.1% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60.7% | 65.8% | 54.0% | 50.6% | 90.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Zach Werenski | D | 52 | 20 | 41 | 61 | +8 | 0 | 21 | 65 | 26:21 | |
| 86 | Kirill Marchenko | R | 50 | 19 | 27 | 46 | +7 | 0 | 40 | 30 | 18:45 | |
| 3 | Charlie Coyle | C | 56 | 15 | 27 | 42 | +4 | 0 | 76 | 35 | 17:42 | |
| 19 | Adam Fantilli | C | 56 | 13 | 23 | 36 | -8 | 0 | 87 | 36 | 18:43 | |
| 10 | Dmitri Voronkov | L | 56 | 17 | 15 | 32 | -2 | 0 | 96 | 25 | 14:31 | |
| 23 | Sean Monahan | C | 52 | 10 | 17 | 27 | +2 | 0 | 27 | 25 | 17:33 | |
| 38 | Boone Jenner | C | 42 | 8 | 19 | 27 | +1 | 0 | 92 | 42 | 16:35 | |
| 4 | Cole Sillinger | C | 55 | 6 | 20 | 26 | +5 | 0 | 70 | 29 | 15:26 | |
| 5 | Denton Mateychuk | D | 49 | 9 | 13 | 22 | +9 | 0 | 19 | 64 | 20:01 | |
| 78 | Damon Severson | D | 55 | 4 | 17 | 21 | +7 | 0 | 35 | 66 | 20:43 | |
| 9 | Ivan Provorov | D | 56 | 6 | 14 | 20 | +15 | 0 | 23 | 95 | 25:23 | |
| 91 | Kent Johnson | C | 55 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -8 | 0 | 8 | 30 | 13:38 | |
| 24 | Mathieu Olivier | R | 43 | 8 | 9 | 17 | +9 | 0 | 158 | 30 | 14:30 | |
| 17 | Mason Marchment | L | 14 | 9 | 4 | 13 | +9 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 17:58 | |
| 11 | Miles Wood | L | 37 | 8 | 5 | 13 | -5 | 0 | 45 | 11 | 12:49 | |
| 15 | Dante Fabbro | D | 50 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -11 | 0 | 42 | 84 | 16:04 | |
| 21 | Isac Lundeström | C | 42 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -4 | 0 | 19 | 18 | 12:20 | |
| 59 | Egor Chinakhov → PIT | R | 29 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 0 | 28 | 8 | 10:18 | |
| 16 | Brendan Gaunce | C | 25 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -1 | 0 | 44 | 21 | 11:54 | |
| 27 | Zachary Aston-Reese | L | 26 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 71 | 17 | 9:36 | |
| 43 | Danton Heinen | L | 13 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 21 | 6 | 9:59 | |
| 44 | Erik Gudbranson | D | 14 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 0 | 18 | 18 | 18:04 | |
| 2 | Jake Christiansen | D | 32 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -9 | 0 | 25 | 15 | 10:11 | |
| 7 | Brendan Smith | D | 15 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12 | 11 | 11:04 | |
| 6 | Egor Zamula | D | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 14:31 | |
| 37 | Dysin Mayo | D | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8:24 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 04 | vs CHI | 4 - 0 | W |
| Feb 03 | @ NJD | 0 - 3 | W |
| Jan 31 | @ STL | 3 - 5 | W |
| Jan 30 | @ CHI | 2 - 4 | W |
| Jan 28 | vs PHI | 5 - 3 | W |
| Jan 24 | vs TBL | 8 - 5 | W |
| Jan 22 | vs DAL | 1 - 0 | W |
| Jan 20 | vs OTT | 1 - 4 | L |
| Jan 17 | @ PIT | 3 - 4 | W (OT/SO) |
| Jan 15 | vs VAN | 4 - 1 | W |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 19:00 | @ Boston Bruins | Away | 59.9% | 1.00 | BOS (57%) |
| Feb 28, 18:00 | vs New York Islanders | Home | 55.9% | 1.20 | CBJ (54%) |
| Mar 02, 19:00 | @ New York Rangers | Away | 37.8% | 1.42 | CBJ (67%) |
| Mar 03, 19:00 | vs Nashville Predators | Home | 45.6% | 1.31 | CBJ (61%) |
| Mar 05, 19:00 | vs Florida Panthers | Home | 46.7% | 1.29 | CBJ (59%) |
| Mar 07, 19:00 | vs Utah Mammoth | Home | 59.6% | 1.25 | CBJ (57%) |
| Mar 09, 16:00 | vs Los Angeles Kings | Home | 49.6% | 1.20 | CBJ (54%) |
| Mar 10, 19:00 | @ Tampa Bay Lightning | Away | 71.7% | 1.02 | TBL (56%) |
| Mar 12, 19:00 | @ Florida Panthers | Away | 46.7% | 1.18 | CBJ (53%) |
| Mar 14, 19:30 | @ Philadelphia Flyers | Away | 48.5% | 1.16 | CBJ (52%) |
| Total Expected (Next 10 games): | 12.0 pts | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.