New Jersey Devils
Metropolitan Division, Eastern Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 28 | 27 | 2 | 58 | 146 | 175 | -29 | 50.9% |
|
Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Feb 20, 2026
Analysis
Summary
The New Jersey Devils are on the fringes of the Eastern Conference race with just a 1.5% playoff probability, reflecting how steep their climb has become. At 58 points through 57 games, they would need a near-perfect finish and significant help from multiple teams ahead of them to stay alive.
Record and Recent Performance
New Jersey’s 28-27-2 record translates to a 50.9% points percentage, well below typical playoff pace, and their minus-29 goal differential underscores season-long defensive issues. The team strength rating of 43.8% places them near the bottom of the conference, and recent form at 40.0% suggests they have not shown the sustained surge required to close gaps in the standings. Even with modestly better home (44.6%) and away (44.4%) splits, the Devils have played like a sub-.500 team overall.
The Competition
The Devils sit 15th in the conference, already 11 points behind the Islanders at the current cutline of 69 points and projected to finish at 96.7. Teams directly ahead such as Washington (65 points), Columbus (65), and Ottawa (63) all project well above New Jersey’s 84.9-point finish, while stronger contenders like Boston, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo are tracking near or above 100 points. With so many teams to pass and several of them posting significantly higher strength ratings, gaining ground is highly unrealistic at this stage.
Remaining Schedule
New Jersey has 25 games left with a favorable 14 at home and an average overall schedule difficulty, facing opponents with a 52.2% strength rating. That said, the model expects just 26.9 additional points from those games, which would leave them more than 10 points short of the projected playoff cutoff. Even outperforming expectations by several wins would still require multiple teams above them to collapse simultaneously.
Outlook
While the Devils are not mathematically eliminated, their playoff path is extremely narrow and depends on a dramatic and sustained turnaround that has not appeared all season. Realistically, the final stretch is more about player development, evaluating the roster, and building momentum for next year rather than chasing a postseason berth.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has already reached that threshold. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 1.5% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 82–88 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 95–97 points. Finishes above the cutline in 1.9% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Eastern Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 72 | 57 | 25 | 58.5% | 65.0% | 54.7% | 101.2 | 87.5% | |
| 5 | 70 | 57 | 25 | 59.0% | 65.0% | 54.5% | 99.3 | 81.8% | |
| 6 | 70 | 56 | 26 | 62.9% | 80.0% | 55.4% | 101.2 | 91.3% | |
| 7 | 69 | 57 | 25 | 59.9% | 75.0% | 56.0% | 97.7 | 70.1% | |
| 8 | 69 | 58 | 24 | 55.9% | 60.0% | 54.0% | 96.6 | 63.9% | |
| 9 | 65 | 59 | 23 | 54.2% | 55.0% | 53.5% | 91.2 | 20.4% | |
| 10 | 65 | 56 | 26 | 60.7% | 90.0% | 54.6% | 95.9 | 56.3% | |
| 11 | 63 | 57 | 25 | 55.5% | 65.0% | 53.8% | 91.8 | 20.4% | |
| 12 | 63 | 57 | 25 | 49.8% | 45.0% | 54.3% | 89.8 | 9.1% | |
| 13 | 61 | 57 | 25 | 46.7% | 40.0% | 53.4% | 87.9 | 5.7% | |
| 14 | 61 | 56 | 26 | 48.5% | 45.0% | 54.4% | 89.2 | 9.6% | |
| 15 | 58 | 57 | 25 | 43.8% | 40.0% | 52.2% | 84.9 | 1.5% | |
| 16 | 50 | 57 | 25 | 37.8% | 20.0% | 52.7% | 73.1 | 0.0% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43.8% | 44.6% | 44.4% | 41.0% | 40.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nico Hischier | C | 57 | 19 | 23 | 42 | -10 | 0 | 42 | 47 | 20:54 | |
| 63 | Jesper Bratt | L | 57 | 13 | 28 | 41 | -19 | 0 | 53 | 20 | 18:55 | |
| 86 | Jack Hughes | C | 36 | 12 | 24 | 36 | -6 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 20:57 | |
| 91 | Dawson Mercer | C | 57 | 13 | 17 | 30 | -1 | 0 | 23 | 35 | 18:15 | |
| 28 | Timo Meier | R | 52 | 14 | 14 | 28 | -20 | 0 | 91 | 31 | 18:39 | |
| 43 | Luke Hughes | D | 49 | 5 | 21 | 26 | -8 | 0 | 13 | 40 | 23:03 | |
| 81 | Arseny Gritsyuk | R | 53 | 9 | 14 | 23 | -5 | 0 | 50 | 16 | 15:12 | |
| 16 | Connor Brown | R | 50 | 10 | 12 | 22 | -8 | 0 | 17 | 29 | 16:45 | |
| 7 | Dougie Hamilton | D | 52 | 7 | 14 | 21 | -6 | 0 | 52 | 51 | 21:41 | |
| 17 | Simon Nemec | D | 43 | 8 | 12 | 20 | -2 | 0 | 12 | 65 | 19:38 | |
| 12 | Cody Glass | C | 45 | 13 | 6 | 19 | +3 | 0 | 30 | 27 | 13:39 | |
| 5 | Brenden Dillon | D | 57 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -12 | 0 | 143 | 73 | 17:58 | |
| 47 | Paul Cotter | L | 54 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -15 | 0 | 150 | 18 | 11:31 | |
| 81 | Ondrej Palat | L | 51 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -5 | 0 | 89 | 41 | 12:44 | |
| 11 | Stefan Noesen | R | 38 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -12 | 0 | 33 | 15 | 11:45 | |
| 71 | Jonas Siegenthaler | D | 57 | 0 | 7 | 7 | -12 | 0 | 76 | 94 | 19:47 | |
| 22 | Brett Pesce | D | 33 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -9 | 0 | 11 | 73 | 20:22 | |
| 29 | Lenni Hameenaho | R | 9 | 2 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 13:11 | |
| 14 | Luke Glendening | C | 52 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -11 | 0 | 66 | 45 | 9:54 | |
| 45 | Colton White | D | 23 | 0 | 4 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 23 | 16 | 12:15 | |
| 83 | Juho Lammikko | C | 24 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 40 | 14 | 9:52 | |
| 8 | Johnathan Kovacevic | D | 11 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 0 | 19 | 14 | 17:10 | |
| 44 | Dennis Cholowski | D | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 14:27 | |
| 72 | Nick Bjugstad | C | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10:42 | |
| 33 | Evgenii Dadonov | L | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 11:06 | |
| 15 | Zack MacEwen | R | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 6:20 | |
| 42 | Maxim Tsyplakov | R | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 8:21 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 05 | vs NYI | 1 - 3 | L |
| Feb 03 | vs CBJ | 0 - 3 | L |
| Jan 31 | @ OTT | 4 - 1 | L |
| Jan 29 | vs NSH | 3 - 2 | W (OT/SO) |
| Jan 27 | vs WPG | 3 - 4 | L |
| Jan 25 | @ SEA | 4 - 2 | L |
| Jan 23 | @ VAN | 4 - 5 | W |
| Jan 20 | @ EDM | 1 - 2 | W |
| Jan 19 | @ CGY | 1 - 2 | W (OT/SO) |
| Jan 17 | vs CAR | 1 - 4 | L |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 19:00 | vs Buffalo Sabres | Home | 59.0% | 1.04 | BUF (55%) |
| Feb 26, 19:00 | @ Pittsburgh Penguins | Away | 62.9% | 0.99 | PIT (58%) |
| Feb 28, 17:00 | @ St. Louis Blues | Away | 35.1% | 1.12 | STL (50%) |
| Mar 03, 19:00 | vs Florida Panthers | Home | 46.7% | 1.12 | FLA (50%) |
| Mar 04, 19:00 | vs Toronto Maple Leafs | Home | 49.8% | 1.14 | NJD (51%) |
| Mar 07, 15:00 | vs New York Rangers | Home | 37.8% | 1.13 | NJD (50%) |
| Mar 08, 19:00 | vs Detroit Red Wings | Home | 55.5% | 1.03 | DET (55%) |
| Mar 12, 19:00 | vs Calgary Flames | Home | 44.6% | 1.27 | NJD (58%) |
| Mar 14, 19:00 | vs Los Angeles Kings | Home | 49.6% | 1.03 | LAK (55%) |
| Mar 16, 19:00 | vs Boston Bruins | Home | 59.9% | 1.08 | BOS (53%) |
| Total Expected (Next 10 games): | 10.9 pts | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.