hockeystats.io

Nashville PredatorsNSH 4–7 Final Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

Tuesday, October 14, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Nashville PredatorsNSH 022 4 30
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 223 7 28

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
8:42 TOR Jake McCabe (1) Dakota Joshua (1), John Tavares (3) · wrist xG 0.01 0–1 ▶
13:34 TOR Oliver Ekman-Larsson (1) William Nylander (4), Simon Benoit (1) · wrist xG 0.02 0–2 ▶
2nd Period
3:21 NSH Michael McCarron (1) Brady Skjei (1), Nick Perbix (1) · wrist xG 0.05 1–2 ▶
4:05 NSH Erik Haula (2) Ozzy Wiesblatt (1) · wrist xG 0.10 2–2 ▶
8:49 TOR John Tavares (1) William Nylander (5), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (1) · wrist xG 0.25 2–3 ▶
16:24 TOR Bobby McMann (2) Nick Robertson (1), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (2) · wrist xG 0.02 2–4 ▶
3rd Period
10:42 TOR Auston Matthews (2) Matthew Knies (3), Easton Cowan (1) · wrist xG 0.18 2–5 ▶
16:06 NSH Roman Josi (1) Adam Wilsby (1), Jonathan Marchessault (2) · wrist xG 0.03 3–5 ▶
16:50 TOR Auston Matthews (3)EN John Tavares (4), Matthew Knies (4) · wrist xG 0.92 3–6 ▶
18:49 NSH Nick Perbix (1) Adam Wilsby (2), Ozzy Wiesblatt (2) · wrist xG 0.05 4–6 ▶
19:36 TOR William Nylander (2)EN Matthew Knies (5), Jake McCabe (1) · wrist xG 0.66 4–7 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

NSH 35%Deserve to win65% TOR
NSHTOR
2.33Expected goals4.76
4Goals (no shootout)7
1.62Expected goals, 5 on 52.55
71Shot attempts57
44Unblocked attempts45
30Shots on goal28

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
16:24 NSH Goalie Goalie · Annunen −2.3 goals saved
4 goals on 1.75 xG, 14 shots on goal
3rd Period
19:01 NSH Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Annunen, down 6–4
With 0:59 left; TOR scored at 19:36 of the 3rd (4–7)

Shot map

NSH shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TOR shoots
John Tavares: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 0:30) Chris Tanev: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:55) Matthew Knies: tip-in, 72 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 1:10) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:51) Matthew Knies: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 4:51) Auston Matthews: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 5:17) Bobby McMann: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 5:51) Cole Smith: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:23) Roman Josi: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:49) Simon Benoit: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 7:43) Steven Stamkos: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 10:28) Jake McCabe: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:51) John Tavares: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 12:11) Auston Matthews: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.22 (P1 12:16) Ozzy Wiesblatt: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:44) Dakota Joshua: poke, 8 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 14:15) Fedor Svechkov: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 15:00) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 15:38) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 16:18) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 16:30) Bobby McMann: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 18:13) Auston Matthews: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 18:50) Jonathan Marchessault: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 19:31) Roman Josi: wrist, 94 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 19:57) Jonathan Marchessault: backhand, 23 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 0:33) Luke Evangelista: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 1:38) Bobby McMann: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 2:13) Brady Skjei: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 3:20) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:09) Jonathan Marchessault: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 5:51) Fedor Svechkov: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 6:55) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 7:40) William Nylander: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 8:47) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:53) Brandon Carlo: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 10:48) Max Domi: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 11:15) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:27) John Tavares: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:39) Cole Smith: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 14:29) Nick Robertson: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 15:57) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:07) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 16:28) Brady Skjei: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:32) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:35) Tyson Jost: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 16:56) Ozzy Wiesblatt: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 17:43) Ryan O'Reilly: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.23 (P2 17:58) Adam Wilsby: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 18:08) Jonathan Marchessault: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 19:45) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:51) William Nylander: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 0:11) William Nylander: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.30 (P3 0:14) John Tavares: slap, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 0:18) Brady Skjei: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:59) Nick Perbix: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:47) Ryan O'Reilly: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 3:00) Cole Smith: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:25) Matthew Knies: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 4:20) Nick Robertson: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 5:16) Matias Maccelli: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 5:28) Calle Jarnkrok: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 6:00) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:15) Justin Barron: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:33) Tyson Jost: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 6:39) William Nylander: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 6:59) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:33) Roman Josi: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 10:08) Calle Jarnkrok: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 10:50) Auston Matthews: tip-in, 24 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 11:45) Matthew Knies: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 11:50) Morgan Rielly: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 12:05) William Nylander: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 12:51) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:23) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 15:22) Roman Josi: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 15:48) Roman Josi: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 15:51) Bobby McMann: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 17:50) Spencer Stastney: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:49) Jake McCabe: GOAL, wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:42) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: GOAL, wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 13:34) Michael McCarron: GOAL, wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 3:21) Erik Haula: GOAL, wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 4:05) John Tavares: GOAL, wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.25 (P2 8:49) Bobby McMann: GOAL, wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:24) Auston Matthews: GOAL, wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 10:42) Roman Josi: GOAL, wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 16:06) Auston Matthews: GOAL, wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.92 (P3 16:50) Nick Perbix: GOAL, wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 18:49) William Nylander: GOAL, wrist, 86 ft, xG 0.66 (P3 19:36)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Nashville Predators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
90 Ryan O'Reilly 000 -3 30.37 0118:57
81 Jonathan Marchessault 011 -3 60.27 0017:30
9 Filip Forsberg 000 -3 80.12 4017:29
56 Erik Haula 101 -1 10.10 1017:29
91 Steven Stamkos 000 -2 50.26 0117:23
58 Michael Bunting 000 0 00.00 0015:30
9 Fedor Svechkov 000 +1 40.20 1014:30
22 Cole Smith 000 0 30.14 5013:05
77 Luke Evangelista 000 0 70.25 0012:51
47 Michael McCarron 101 0 10.05 2012:48
17 Tyson Jost 000 0 30.15 0011:24
89 Ozzy Wiesblatt 022 0 20.04 2009:30
Defense
59 Roman Josi 101 -3 80.14 1323:13
76 Brady Skjei 011 -1 60.07 0222:50
48 Nick Perbix 112 +2 50.07 1021:45
2 Adam Wilsby 022 0 40.09 1018:15
24 Spencer Stastney 000 -2 30.01 0215:44
72 Justin Barron 000 -2 20.01 0214:37
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Justus Annunen 26521 .808 3.18 -1.82

Toronto Maple Leafs

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
34 Auston Matthews 202 +3 61.52 1321:31
89 Matthew Knies 033 +2 50.23 2218:55
88 William Nylander 123 +1 71.19 0118:51
91 John Tavares 123 +2 60.54 3016:37
74 Bobby McMann 101 +1 70.39 2115:04
53 Easton Cowan 011 +2 00.00 2014:05
11 Max Domi 000 +1 20.06 1112:48
14 Nick Robertson 011 +1 20.21 3012:26
63 Matias Maccelli 000 +1 20.12 0012:23
19 Calle Jarnkrok 000 -2 20.06 0011:46
10 Nicolas Roy 000 -2 10.00 2011:34
81 Dakota Joshua 011 -1 10.11 2111:28
Defense
22 Jake McCabe 112 +2 20.02 3321:30
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 123 +2 20.03 0420:17
44 Morgan Rielly 000 -1 40.08 0120:01
8 Chris Tanev 000 +2 40.01 0119:42
44 Simon Benoit 011 +2 10.10 0118:02
25 Brandon Carlo 000 -1 30.10 0117:00
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Cayden Primeau 30426 .867 2.33 -1.67

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Nashville Predators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
48 Nick Perbix D +1.43 +1.30 +0.04 +0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 21:45
89 Ozzy Wiesblatt C +1.05 +1.25 +0.03 -0.06 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 9:30
47 Michael McCarron C +1.01 +0.75 +0.03 +0.22 0.00 +0.02 -0.02 — 12:48
76 Brady Skjei D +0.94 +0.70 +0.04 +0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 22:50
40 Fedor Svechkov C +0.70 0.00 +0.13 +0.28 +0.30 -0.01 0.00 — 14:30
83 Adam Wilsby D +0.64 +1.40 +0.06 -0.64 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 18:15
59 Roman Josi D +0.39 +0.75 +0.09 -0.56 0.00 0.00 +0.11 — 23:13
77 Luke Evangelista R +0.31 0.00 +0.16 +0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 12:51
56 Erik Haula L +0.10 +0.75 +0.06 -0.66 0.00 -0.03 -0.02 — 17:29
36 Cole Smith R +0.03 0.00 +0.09 -0.04 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 13:05
91 Steven Stamkos C -0.03 0.00 +0.17 -0.28 0.00 +0.03 +0.05 — 17:23
17 Tyson Jost C -0.16 0.00 +0.09 -0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:24
81 Jonathan Marchessault R -0.19 +0.55 +0.18 -0.90 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:30
9 Filip Forsberg L -0.32 0.00 +0.08 -0.37 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:29
90 Ryan O'Reilly C -0.52 0.00 +0.24 -0.79 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 18:57
58 Michael Bunting L -0.63 0.00 0.00 -0.63 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:30
24 Spencer Stastney D -0.66 0.00 0.00 -0.72 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 15:44
20 Justin Barron D -0.70 0.00 +0.01 -0.79 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 14:37
29 Justus Annunen G -1.82 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.82 59:10

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
88 William Nylander R +3.62 +2.15 +0.77 +0.61 0.00 0.00 +0.09 — 18:51
91 John Tavares C +3.40 +2.00 +0.35 +0.99 0.00 +0.05 0.00 — 16:37
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D +2.97 +1.85 +0.02 +0.92 0.00 0.00 +0.18 — 20:17
34 Auston Matthews C +2.92 +1.50 +0.99 +0.34 0.00 -0.04 +0.13 — 21:31
23 Matthew Knies L +2.37 +1.95 +0.15 +0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 18:55
74 Bobby McMann C +1.50 +0.75 +0.26 +0.44 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 15:04
53 Easton Cowan R +1.46 +0.55 0.00 +0.80 +0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 14:05
22 Jake McCabe D +1.37 +1.30 +0.02 -0.06 0.00 0.00 +0.11 — 21:30
2 Simon Benoit D +1.33 +0.55 +0.07 +0.64 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 18:02
89 Nick Robertson L +1.20 +0.70 +0.14 +0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:26
63 Matias Maccelli L +1.08 0.00 +0.08 +1.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:23
81 Dakota Joshua C +0.57 +0.70 +0.07 -0.25 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 11:28
11 Max Domi C +0.52 0.00 +0.04 +0.47 0.00 -0.02 +0.03 — 12:48
44 Morgan Rielly D +0.43 0.00 +0.05 +0.43 0.00 0.00 -0.05 — 20:01
25 Brandon Carlo D +0.43 0.00 +0.06 +0.31 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:00
8 Chris Tanev D +0.09 0.00 +0.01 +0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 19:42
19 Calle Jarnkrok C -0.66 0.00 +0.04 -0.72 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 11:46
55 Nicolas Roy C -0.73 0.00 0.00 -0.52 -0.15 0.00 -0.06 — 11:34
30 Cayden Primeau G -1.67 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.67 60:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.