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Vegas Golden KnightsVGK 4–2 Final Calgary FlamesCGY

Tuesday, October 14, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Vegas Golden KnightsVGK 013 4 30
Calgary FlamesCGY 200 2 29

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
7:32 CGY Mikael Backlund (1) MacKenzie Weegar (1) · snap xG 0.05 0–1 ▶
12:10 CGY Blake Coleman (2) Unassisted · snap xG 0.10 0–2 ▶
2nd Period
10:00 VGK Jack Eichel (3) Mark Stone (6) · backhand xG 0.10 1–2 ▶
3rd Period
4:11 VGK Kaedan Korczak (1) Tomas Hertl (2), Mitch Marner (3) · snap xG 0.12 2–2 ▶
6:38 VGK Jack Eichel (4) Ivan Barbashev (2), Jeremy Lauzon (1) · wrist xG 0.28 3–2 ▶
19:53 VGK Tomas Hertl (1)EN Mitch Marner (4), William Karlsson (1) · wrist xG 0.91 4–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

VGK 53%Deserve to win47% CGY
VGKCGY
3.83Expected goals2.30
4Goals (no shootout)2
2.22Expected goals, 5 on 52.07
69Shot attempts55
49Unblocked attempts44
30Shots on goal29

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
20:00 VGK Goalie change Goalie change · Schmid in for Hill
The start of the 2nd; Hill had allowed 2 goals on 10 shots (0.72 xG)
3rd Period
17:34 CGY Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Wolf, down 3–2
With 2:26 left

Shot map

VGK shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ CGY shoots
Blake Coleman: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 0:18) Rasmus Andersson: wrist, 170 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 0:36) Mitch Marner: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:54) Zayne Parekh: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 1:16) Ben Hutton: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:44) Ben Hutton: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 1:48) Jack Eichel: wrist, 121 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 3:20) Mitch Marner: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 4:15) Adam Klapka: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:09) Cole Reinhardt: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:39) Matt Coronato: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 7:48) Rasmus Andersson: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 7:50) Joel Farabee: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 9:17) Zach Whitecloud: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 9:52) Jack Eichel: deflected, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:25) Mikael Backlund: tip-in, 4 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 10:39) Tomas Hertl: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 11:24) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:33) Ryan Lomberg: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 13:03) Mitch Marner: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:08) Yegor Sharangovich: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:12) Jeremy Lauzon: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:32) Brandon Saad: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 17:03) Zach Whitecloud: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 17:18) Blake Coleman: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 18:08) Brandon Saad: tip-in, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 18:56) Brayden McNabb: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:11) Rasmus Andersson: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 0:24) Ivan Barbashev: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 0:35) Tomas Hertl: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 0:58) Tomas Hertl: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:04) Morgan Frost: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 3:33) Tomas Hertl: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 4:06) Ben Hutton: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:10) Ben Hutton: wrist, 114 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 4:31) Pavel Dorofeyev: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 4:40) Reilly Smith: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 4:44) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 6:12) Ben Hutton: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:23) Mikael Backlund: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 6:41) Connor Zary: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 7:27) Colton Sissons: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 9:23) Kevin Bahl: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 9:50) Jack Eichel: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 9:57) Ben Hutton: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:20) Adam Klapka: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 11:05) Zayne Parekh: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 11:23) Connor Zary: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 11:50) Blake Coleman: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 12:28) Matvei Gridin: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:34) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 12:48) Adam Klapka: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:14) Matt Coronato: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:35) Mark Stone: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 16:15) Jack Eichel: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 16:55) Mark Stone: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:56) Mitch Marner: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 17:02) Mitch Marner: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 17:23) Pavel Dorofeyev: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 18:22) William Karlsson: tip-in, 67 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 18:49) Nazem Kadri: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 19:40) Nazem Kadri: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 19:57) Rasmus Andersson: snap, 5 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 19:59) Rasmus Andersson: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:26) Jack Eichel: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:35) Kaedan Korczak: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 0:41) Yegor Sharangovich: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 1:47) Zach Whitecloud: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:06) Mark Stone: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 2:30) Mikael Backlund: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 3:16) Yegor Sharangovich: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 4:35) Mikael Backlund: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 5:13) Joel Hanley: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:15) Brandon Saad: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 8:59) Brayden McNabb: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 10:11) Adam Klapka: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:23) Jack Eichel: wrist, 98 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 10:29) Joel Farabee: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:34) Joel Farabee: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:43) Mikael Backlund: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 13:25) Mark Stone: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:10) Daniil Miromanov: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:35) Yegor Sharangovich: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:02) Morgan Frost: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 16:21) Mitch Marner: wrist, 95 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 16:59) Mark Stone: tip-in, 4 ft, xG 0.23 (P3 18:15) Jack Eichel: wrist, 116 ft, xG 0.46 (P3 18:29) Mikael Backlund: GOAL, snap, 22 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 7:32) Blake Coleman: GOAL, snap, 31 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 12:10) Jack Eichel: GOAL, backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 10:00) Kaedan Korczak: GOAL, snap, 34 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 4:11) Jack Eichel: GOAL, wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.28 (P3 6:38) Tomas Hertl: GOAL, wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.91 (P3 19:53)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Vegas Golden Knights

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
93 Mitch Marner 022 +2 70.16 1021:54
48 Tomas Hertl 112 +2 91.18 1118:31
16 Pavel Dorofeyev 000 0 50.24 1118:12
9 Jack Eichel 202 0 90.99 0017:44
61 Mark Stone 011 0 50.43 1017:32
71 William Karlsson 011 +1 20.00 0016:24
49 Ivan Barbashev 011 0 20.09 1014:49
20 Brandon Saad 000 +1 50.28 0013:17
19 Reilly Smith 000 0 10.03 1013:14
15 Colton Sissons 000 0 20.06 0010:15
55 Keegan Kolesar 000 0 00.00 5210:02
29 Cole Reinhardt 000 0 10.02 3009:22
Defense
27 Shea Theodore 000 -1 10.00 0123:53
3 Brayden McNabb 000 0 40.05 0323:04
28 Zach Whitecloud 000 +2 30.08 1117:39
6 Kaedan Korczak 101 +1 20.13 4217:26
17 Ben Hutton 000 +1 90.05 0016:49
5 Jeremy Lauzon 011 +1 20.03 7016:16
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Adin Hill 1028 .800 0.72 -1.28
Akira Schmid 19019 1.000 1.58 +1.58

Calgary Flames

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
91 Nazem Kadri 000 -3 50.56 0020:35
27 Matt Coronato 000 -3 40.03 0119:12
86 Joel Farabee 000 -1 30.06 1217:05
20 Blake Coleman 101 +1 40.34 2216:49
16 Morgan Frost 000 -1 20.06 1015:41
11 Mikael Backlund 101 +1 70.41 0115:25
17 Yegor Sharangovich 000 0 40.26 0013:42
29 Samuel Honzek 000 +1 00.00 2012:32
43 Adam Klapka 000 0 40.12 5010:21
47 Connor Zary 000 0 20.11 2110:06
94 Ryan Lomberg 000 0 10.03 6109:08
Defense
52 MacKenzie Weegar 011 -1 00.00 2223:37
4 Rasmus Andersson 000 -1 100.17 1021:26
7 Kevin Bahl 000 -1 10.00 1220:43
19 Zayne Parekh 000 -1 30.10 0117:49
44 Joel Hanley 000 0 10.02 0217:43
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Dustin Wolf 29326 .897 2.45 -0.55

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Vegas Golden Knights

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
9 Jack Eichel C +2.75 +1.50 +0.65 +0.50 0.00 +0.08 +0.02 — 17:44
48 Tomas Hertl C +2.52 +1.45 +0.77 +0.26 0.00 +0.02 +0.03 — 18:31
93 Mitch Marner R +1.84 +1.25 +0.10 +0.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 21:54
40 Akira Schmid G +1.58 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.58 39:37
61 Mark Stone R +1.41 +0.70 +0.28 +0.45 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:32
49 Ivan Barbashev L +1.40 +0.70 +0.06 +0.53 +0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 14:49
6 Kaedan Korczak D +1.01 +0.75 +0.09 +0.24 -0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 17:26
5 Jeremy Lauzon D +0.90 +0.55 +0.02 +0.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:16
71 William Karlsson C +0.64 +0.55 0.00 +0.11 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 16:24
3 Brayden McNabb D +0.40 0.00 +0.04 +0.08 +0.15 0.00 +0.13 — 23:04
2 Zach Whitecloud D +0.36 0.00 +0.05 +0.30 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 17:39
16 Pavel Dorofeyev R +0.35 0.00 +0.16 +0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 18:12
17 Ben Hutton D -0.03 0.00 +0.03 -0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:49
20 Brandon Saad L -0.03 0.00 +0.18 -0.23 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 13:17
23 Cole Reinhardt L -0.10 0.00 +0.01 -0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:22
19 Reilly Smith R -0.14 0.00 +0.02 -0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:14
27 Shea Theodore D -0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.25 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 23:53
55 Keegan Kolesar R -0.37 0.00 0.00 -0.46 0.00 -0.01 +0.10 — 10:02
10 Colton Sissons C -0.48 0.00 +0.04 -0.54 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 10:15
33 Adin Hill G -1.28 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.28 20:00

Calgary Flames

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
11 Mikael Backlund C +1.54 +0.75 +0.27 +0.46 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 15:25
20 Blake Coleman L +1.48 +0.75 +0.22 +0.43 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 16:49
4 Rasmus Andersson D +0.78 0.00 +0.11 +0.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 21:26
29 Samuel Honzek L +0.55 0.00 0.00 +0.40 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 12:32
7 Kevin Bahl D +0.47 0.00 0.00 +0.52 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 20:43
86 Joel Farabee L +0.43 0.00 +0.04 +0.31 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 17:05
70 Ryan Lomberg L +0.27 0.00 +0.02 +0.22 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 9:08
47 Connor Zary C +0.18 0.00 +0.07 +0.05 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 10:06
44 Joel Hanley D +0.13 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 17:43
43 Adam Klapka R +0.10 0.00 +0.08 +0.04 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 10:21
52 MacKenzie Weegar D -0.01 +0.70 0.00 -0.81 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 23:37
19 Zayne Parekh D -0.02 0.00 +0.07 -0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 17:49
17 Yegor Sharangovich C -0.03 0.00 +0.17 -0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:42
91 Nazem Kadri C -0.44 0.00 +0.36 -0.63 -0.15 -0.02 0.00 — 20:35
16 Morgan Frost C -0.44 0.00 +0.04 -0.46 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 15:41
27 Matt Coronato R -0.52 0.00 +0.02 -0.60 0.00 -0.01 +0.07 — 19:12
32 Dustin Wolf G -0.55 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.55 58:16
62 Daniil Miromanov D -0.87 0.00 0.00 -0.95 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 17:49
92 Matvei Gridin R -0.95 0.00 0.00 -0.99 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 16:01

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.