Vegas Golden Knights
Pacific Division, Western Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 27 | 16 | 14 | 68 | 191 | 179 | +12 | 59.6% |
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Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Feb 20, 2026
Analysis
Summary
The Vegas Golden Knights are in a strong position with a 91.1% chance to make the playoffs and a projected finish comfortably above the cutoff at 96.3 points. While their recent dip in form has slightly trimmed their odds, Vegas still controls its destiny in a crowded Western Conference race and remains a legitimate division contender with a 40.9% chance to finish first.
Record and Recent Performance
Vegas sits at 27-16-14 through 57 games, good for 68 points and a 59.6% points percentage, which aligns closely with their projected playoff pace. Their +12 goal differential, driven by 191 goals for and 179 against, suggests a solid but not dominant profile, reinforced by a team strength rating of 52.5% that is nearly identical home and away. The concern is recent form at just 40.0%, indicating the Golden Knights have left points on the table lately and need to stabilize to avoid letting the pack close in.
The Competition
The Golden Knights currently rank fourth in the conference playoff race, with Utah, Edmonton, Seattle, and Anaheim all within five points, making this one of the tightest clusters on the board. Anaheim sits on the projected cutline at 63 points but is expected to finish at 94.9, while Utah is close behind Vegas in projection at 94.4 and boasts a notably higher team strength of 59.6%. Edmonton’s projection of 90.6 points makes them a direct threat to the cutoff rather than to Vegas’ spot, but Seattle and Anaheim both have realistic paths to passing teams above them if Vegas stumbles.
Remaining Schedule
Vegas has 25 games left, split almost evenly with 12 at home and 13 on the road, and their schedule is rated as perfectly average in both balance and opponent strength at 53.2%. With expected remaining points of 28.3, the math supports their projection to reach the mid‑90s, well clear of the 90.6-point projected cutoff. There is no built-in advantage or disadvantage here, meaning their final position will largely hinge on execution rather than schedule quirks.
Outlook
If the Golden Knights play to their season-long strength rather than their recent form, they should lock up a playoff berth with room to spare and remain in the division title conversation. The margin for error is not huge given the depth of competition, but Vegas’ current cushion and balanced schedule give them a favorable path as long as they avoid prolonged slumps.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has already reached that threshold. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 91.1% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 93–99 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 89–92 points. Finishes above the cutline in 93.0% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Western Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 68 | 57 | 25 | 52.5% | 40.0% | 53.2% | 96.3 | 91.1% | |
| 5 | 64 | 57 | 25 | 59.6% | 70.0% | 52.3% | 94.4 | 86.1% | |
| 6 | 64 | 58 | 24 | 52.1% | 50.0% | 53.3% | 90.6 | 58.5% | |
| 7 | 63 | 56 | 26 | 53.4% | 60.0% | 52.7% | 92.9 | 76.5% | |
| 8 | 63 | 56 | 26 | 56.6% | 80.0% | 49.1% | 94.9 | 86.2% | |
| 9 | 60 | 56 | 26 | 49.6% | 55.0% | 49.4% | 89.5 | 43.6% | |
| 10 | 59 | 57 | 25 | 45.6% | 45.0% | 53.0% | 85.7 | 19.3% | |
| 11 | 58 | 55 | 27 | 46.8% | 45.0% | 49.3% | 88.1 | 33.9% | |
| 12 | 53 | 57 | 25 | 42.4% | 40.0% | 52.9% | 78.7 | 1.0% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52.5% | 52.5% | 51.9% | 53.2% | 40.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Jack Eichel | C | 50 | 21 | 47 | 68 | +18 | 0 | 30 | 30 | 21:16 | |
| 61 | Mark Stone | R | 41 | 21 | 39 | 60 | +18 | 0 | 17 | 34 | 19:32 | |
| 93 | Mitch Marner | R | 57 | 16 | 42 | 58 | +13 | 0 | 20 | 35 | 19:57 | |
| 48 | Tomas Hertl | C | 57 | 22 | 27 | 49 | -7 | 0 | 77 | 30 | 17:26 | |
| 16 | Pavel Dorofeyev | R | 57 | 26 | 18 | 44 | -4 | 0 | 22 | 22 | 17:32 | |
| 49 | Ivan Barbashev | L | 57 | 16 | 25 | 41 | +13 | 0 | 91 | 31 | 16:09 | |
| 27 | Shea Theodore | D | 46 | 7 | 20 | 27 | +12 | 0 | 1 | 66 | 23:42 | |
| 42 | Braeden Bowman | R | 41 | 7 | 13 | 20 | -14 | 0 | 13 | 19 | 13:57 | |
| 15 | Noah Hanifin | D | 47 | 2 | 18 | 20 | -1 | 0 | 29 | 77 | 23:25 | |
| 19 | Reilly Smith | R | 53 | 9 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 0 | 20 | 10 | 13:48 | |
| 21 | Brett Howden | C | 39 | 9 | 6 | 15 | -4 | 0 | 66 | 9 | 14:52 | |
| 17 | Ben Hutton | D | 50 | 6 | 9 | 15 | +3 | 0 | 24 | 50 | 14:45 | |
| 55 | Keegan Kolesar | R | 57 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -10 | 0 | 193 | 29 | 11:34 | |
| 6 | Kaedan Korczak | D | 57 | 3 | 9 | 12 | +7 | 0 | 87 | 76 | 16:48 | |
| 5 | Jeremy Lauzon | D | 43 | 0 | 9 | 9 | +1 | 0 | 162 | 71 | 17:30 | |
| 26 | Alexander Holtz | R | 26 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 11 | 11:30 | |
| 71 | William Karlsson | C | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 15:08 | |
| 23 | Cole Reinhardt | L | 40 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 0 | 73 | 6 | 9:45 | |
| 28 | Zach Whitecloud | D | 47 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -8 | 0 | 73 | 62 | 18:46 | |
| 20 | Brandon Saad | L | 39 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -1 | 0 | 9 | 17 | 13:52 | |
| 10 | Colton Sissons | C | 41 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 0 | 61 | 26 | 11:48 | |
| 4 | Rasmus Andersson | D | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 21:54 | |
| 3 | Brayden McNabb | D | 38 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 0 | 63 | 98 | 20:47 | |
| 28 | Tanner Laczynski | C | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 10:13 | |
| 46 | Jonas Rondbjerg | R | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:04 | |
| 88 | Jaycob Megna | D | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 10:37 | |
| 77 | Kai Uchacz | C | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 11:57 | |
| 52 | Dylan Coghlan | D | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 14:57 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 05 | vs LAK | 4 - 1 | W |
| Feb 04 | vs VAN | 5 - 2 | W |
| Feb 01 | @ ANA | 4 - 3 | L |
| Jan 31 | vs SEA | 2 - 3 | L |
| Jan 29 | vs DAL | 4 - 5 | L (OT/SO) |
| Jan 27 | @ MTL | 3 - 2 | L (OT/SO) |
| Jan 25 | @ OTT | 7 - 1 | L |
| Jan 23 | @ TOR | 3 - 6 | W |
| Jan 22 | @ BOS | 4 - 3 | L |
| Jan 19 | vs PHI | 1 - 2 | L |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 22:00 | @ Los Angeles Kings | Away | 49.6% | 1.21 | VGK (55%) |
| Feb 27, 19:00 | @ Washington Capitals | Away | 54.2% | 1.06 | WSH (54%) |
| Mar 01, 13:00 | @ Pittsburgh Penguins | Away | 62.9% | 1.06 | PIT (54%) |
| Mar 03, 19:00 | @ Buffalo Sabres | Away | 59.0% | 1.05 | BUF (54%) |
| Mar 04, 19:00 | @ Detroit Red Wings | Away | 55.5% | 1.08 | DET (53%) |
| Mar 06, 22:00 | vs Minnesota Wild | Home | 65.9% | 1.03 | MIN (56%) |
| Mar 08, 21:30 | vs Edmonton Oilers | Home | 52.1% | 1.17 | VGK (53%) |
| Mar 10, 20:00 | @ Dallas Stars | Away | 63.9% | 1.03 | DAL (56%) |
| Mar 12, 22:00 | vs Pittsburgh Penguins | Home | 62.9% | 1.01 | PIT (56%) |
| Mar 14, 22:00 | vs Chicago Blackhawks | Home | 42.4% | 1.22 | VGK (56%) |
| Total Expected (Next 10 games): | 10.9 pts | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.