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Carolina HurricanesCAR 5–1 Final San Jose SharksSJS

Tuesday, October 14, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Carolina HurricanesCAR 032 5 43
San Jose SharksSJS 010 1 17

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
1:24 CAR Sean Walker (1) Sebastian Aho (4), Seth Jarvis (1) · slap xG 0.04 1–0 ▶
4:38 SJS William Eklund (1) Tyler Toffoli (1), Nick Leddy (2) · wrist xG 0.12 1–1 ▶
14:14 CAR William Carrier (1) Alexander Nikishin (3), Jordan Martinook (3) · poke xG 0.18 2–1 ▶
18:39 CAR Eric Robinson (2) Mike Reilly (1) · backhand xG 0.07 3–1 ▶
3rd Period
1:52 CAR Shayne Gostisbehere (1) Logan Stankoven (1), Taylor Hall (2) · wrist xG 0.20 4–1 ▶
7:25 CAR Jackson Blake (1) Jalen Chatfield (1), Logan Stankoven (2) · slap xG 0.04 5–1 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

CAR 75%Deserve to win25% SJS
CARSJS
3.65Expected goals2.09
5Goals (no shootout)1
2.91Expected goals, 5 on 51.23
84Shot attempts36
64Unblocked attempts27
43Shots on goal17

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
3:05 CAR Deserve to win Deserve to win · CAR takes the lead, 61–39%
SJS had led since 12:26 of the 1st, by as much as 65%
3rd Period
0:30 CAR xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced SJS 1.43–0.19
In xG over 10 minutes, 12:00 of the 2nd to 2:00 of the 3rd; goals 3–0

Shot map

CAR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ SJS shoots
Tyler Toffoli: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:07) Jordan Martinook: wrist, 163 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 0:27) Dmitry Orlov: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 3:05) Mike Reilly: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:02) Jalen Chatfield: wrist, 74 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 5:50) Ryan Reaves: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:38) Mario Ferraro: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:40) Jackson Blake: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:51) Alexander Wennberg: backhand, 78 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 8:12) Sean Walker: tip-in, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:18) Eric Robinson: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:31) Nikolaj Ehlers: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:34) Seth Jarvis: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 11:15) Jeff Skinner: backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 11:30) Will Smith: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 12:26) Sebastian Aho: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 12:41) Mike Reilly: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 12:46) Michael Misa: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 13:15) Nikolaj Ehlers: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 14:37) Sean Walker: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 15:20) Will Smith: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 16:49) Tyler Toffoli: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:50) Sebastian Aho: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 17:00) Jackson Blake: backhand, 19 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 17:35) Nick Leddy: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:51) William Carrier: backhand, 20 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 19:10) Sean Walker: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:12) William Carrier: slap, 31 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 19:49) Alexander Nikishin: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:55) Alexander Wennberg: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 0:28) John Klingberg: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 0:31) Logan Stankoven: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 1:52) Mike Reilly: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:41) Eric Robinson: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 3:05) Alexander Wennberg: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 3:22) Will Smith: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 3:33) Nikolaj Ehlers: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 6:41) Sean Walker: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 7:01) Barclay Goodrow: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 7:22) K'Andre Miller: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 7:52) William Eklund: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 8:23) Jeff Skinner: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 10:29) Jeff Skinner: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 10:42) Logan Stankoven: wrist, 85 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 11:41) William Carrier: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 11:57) Jordan Martinook: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:05) Nikolaj Ehlers: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 12:16) Sebastian Aho: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:19) Nikolaj Ehlers: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 13:03) Alexander Nikishin: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:18) Shayne Gostisbehere: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 13:22) William Carrier: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 13:47) Alexander Nikishin: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 14:09) Logan Stankoven: backhand, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 14:21) Mark Jankowski: tip-in, 31 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 14:53) Mike Reilly: wrist, 73 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:15) Eric Robinson: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 15:27) Mike Reilly: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:37) Nikolaj Ehlers: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:44) Nikolaj Ehlers: tip-in, 26 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:48) K'Andre Miller: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 16:26) Shayne Gostisbehere: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 16:46) Logan Stankoven: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 17:12) Barclay Goodrow: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 18:25) Adam Gaudette: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 18:31) Jalen Chatfield: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:14) William Carrier: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 0:18) Nikolaj Ehlers: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:49) Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 0:58) Eric Robinson: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 2:26) Sebastian Aho: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 3:35) Alexander Nikishin: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:30) Sebastian Aho: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 7:08) Shayne Gostisbehere: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 9:35) Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 10:27) William Carrier: backhand, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:06) Andrei Svechnikov: deflected, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 11:21) William Eklund: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 12:32) K'Andre Miller: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:00) K'Andre Miller: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:20) Macklin Celebrini: tip-in, 28 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 14:01) Tyler Toffoli: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 14:12) Jackson Blake: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 16:07) Jalen Chatfield: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:44) Logan Stankoven: between-legs, 7 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 19:33) Sean Walker: GOAL, slap, 59 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 1:24) William Eklund: GOAL, wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 4:38) William Carrier: GOAL, poke, 8 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 14:14) Eric Robinson: GOAL, backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 18:39) Shayne Gostisbehere: GOAL, wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 1:52) Jackson Blake: GOAL, slap, 51 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 7:25)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Carolina Hurricanes

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
20 Sebastian Aho 011 0 50.33 2018:26
24 Seth Jarvis 011 0 10.04 0017:19
22 Logan Stankoven 022 +3 50.34 0017:03
53 Jackson Blake 101 +2 50.23 0016:42
27 Nikolaj Ehlers 000 0 90.44 0015:04
11 Jordan Staal 000 0 10.00 2015:01
48 Jordan Martinook 011 +1 20.03 2014:41
37 Andrei Svechnikov 000 +1 20.11 0013:30
71 Taylor Hall 011 +2 30.00 0012:48
50 Eric Robinson 101 +1 50.34 0011:00
28 William Carrier 101 +1 100.80 3010:51
77 Mark Jankowski 000 +1 10.06 0109:40
Defense
19 K'Andre Miller 000 +1 50.12 1122:32
26 Sean Walker 101 +1 100.29 2221:44
5 Jalen Chatfield 011 +1 50.02 0019:24
4 Shayne Gostisbehere 101 +2 50.32 0318:48
6 Mike Reilly 011 +1 50.06 0018:13
21 Alexander Nikishin 011 +2 50.13 1117:14
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Brandon Bussi 17116 .941 2.09 +1.09

San Jose Sharks

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
27 William Eklund 101 0 30.38 0220:28
71 Macklin Celebrini 000 0 50.15 0020:12
73 Tyler Toffoli 011 0 30.11 3118:05
96 Philipp Kurashev 000 -2 20.00 1116:34
21 Alexander Wennberg 000 0 40.22 1016:26
77 Michael Misa 000 -2 20.12 0215:06
2 Will Smith 000 -1 30.27 1013:57
10 Ty Dellandrea 000 -2 00.00 1113:54
53 Jeff Skinner 000 -1 40.38 0113:37
23 Barclay Goodrow 000 -1 30.22 4013:26
75 Ryan Reaves 000 -1 10.01 5010:52
81 Adam Gaudette 000 -2 10.14 0009:46
Defense
9 Dmitry Orlov 000 -1 10.09 0023:20
27 Timothy Liljegren 000 -1 00.00 0420:48
4 Nick Leddy 011 0 20.01 0119:39
38 Mario Ferraro 000 -2 10.01 2118:52
3 John Klingberg 000 -1 10.00 3317:06
6 Sam Dickinson 000 -3 00.00 0111:52
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Alex Nedeljkovic 43538 .884 3.65 -1.35

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Carolina Hurricanes

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
4 Shayne Gostisbehere D +2.54 +0.75 +0.21 +1.55 -0.08 0.00 +0.11 — 18:48
22 Logan Stankoven C +2.41 +1.25 +0.22 +1.00 0.00 -0.04 -0.02 — 17:03
21 Alexander Nikishin D +2.06 +0.70 +0.08 +1.17 +0.08 0.00 +0.03 — 17:14
28 William Carrier L +1.93 +0.75 +0.52 +0.81 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 10:51
50 Eric Robinson L +1.71 +0.75 +0.22 +0.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:00
53 Jackson Blake R +1.49 +0.75 +0.15 +0.64 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 16:42
20 Sebastian Aho C +1.47 +0.70 +0.22 +0.46 +0.15 +0.02 -0.08 — 18:26
5 Jalen Chatfield D +1.45 +0.70 +0.01 +0.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:24
6 Mike Reilly D +1.44 +0.70 +0.04 +0.74 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 18:13
71 Taylor Hall L +1.30 +0.55 0.00 +0.77 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:48
48 Jordan Martinook L +1.26 +0.55 +0.02 +0.68 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 14:41
32 Brandon Bussi G +1.09 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.09 60:00
26 Sean Walker D +1.04 +0.75 +0.19 +0.15 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 21:44
24 Seth Jarvis C +0.98 +0.55 +0.02 +0.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:19
77 Mark Jankowski L +0.76 0.00 +0.04 +0.62 0.00 +0.05 +0.05 — 9:40
27 Nikolaj Ehlers L +0.69 0.00 +0.29 +0.42 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:04
19 K'Andre Miller D +0.50 0.00 +0.08 +0.56 -0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 22:32
37 Andrei Svechnikov R +0.46 0.00 +0.07 +0.45 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 13:30
11 Jordan Staal C +0.45 0.00 0.00 +0.37 0.00 +0.04 +0.04 — 15:01

San Jose Sharks

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
72 William Eklund L +0.48 +0.75 +0.25 -0.60 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 20:28
73 Tyler Toffoli C +0.22 +0.70 +0.07 -0.56 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 18:05
53 Jeff Skinner L +0.15 0.00 +0.24 -0.24 +0.15 -0.01 +0.01 — 13:37
21 Alexander Wennberg C +0.14 0.00 +0.14 -0.10 +0.15 -0.02 -0.04 — 16:26
4 Nick Leddy D -0.11 +0.55 +0.01 -0.72 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 19:39
23 Barclay Goodrow C -0.29 0.00 +0.14 -0.42 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 13:26
9 Dmitry Orlov D -0.33 0.00 +0.06 -0.36 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 23:20
71 Macklin Celebrini C -0.40 0.00 +0.10 -0.59 +0.15 -0.09 +0.04 — 20:12
38 Mario Ferraro D -0.51 0.00 +0.01 -0.72 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 18:52
2 Will Smith C -0.59 0.00 +0.17 -0.59 -0.15 -0.01 -0.02 — 13:57
77 Michael Misa C -0.62 0.00 +0.07 -0.79 0.00 +0.02 +0.08 — 15:06
10 Ty Dellandrea C -0.65 0.00 0.00 -0.88 +0.15 +0.05 +0.03 — 13:54
3 John Klingberg D -0.76 0.00 0.00 -0.89 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 17:06
75 Ryan Reaves R -0.78 0.00 0.00 -0.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:52
37 Timothy Liljegren D -0.82 0.00 0.00 -1.02 0.00 0.00 +0.20 — 20:48
96 Philipp Kurashev C -0.85 0.00 0.00 -0.90 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:34
81 Adam Gaudette R -0.97 0.00 +0.09 -0.91 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 9:46
6 Sam Dickinson D -1.32 0.00 0.00 -1.20 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 11:52
33 Alex Nedeljkovic G -1.35 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.35 60:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.