San Jose Sharks
Pacific Division, Western Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 27 | 24 | 4 | 58 | 171 | 193 | -22 | 52.7% |
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Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Feb 20, 2026
Analysis
Summary
The San Jose Sharks are very much in the mix but sitting on the wrong side of the playoff bubble, with a 34.0% playoff probability and projected to finish just short of the cutoff. At 58 points through 55 games, they likely need to outperform projections over the final two months to leapfrog multiple teams.
Record and Recent Performance
San Jose’s 27-24-4 record translates to a 52.7% points percentage, which is borderline playoff quality but not strong enough to bank on without improvement. Their -22 goal differential, driven by 193 goals against, highlights defensive issues that drag down an already modest 46.8% team strength rating, especially on the road where they sit at just 41.5%. Recent form at 45.0% suggests the Sharks have been treading water rather than building momentum at a critical time.
The Competition
The Western Conference race is crowded, with Anaheim holding the current cutline at 63 points and a projected 94.9-point finish, while Seattle, Utah, and Vegas all project comfortably into the 90s. Edmonton looms as the most catchable target, projected right at the 90.6-point cutoff, while Los Angeles sits just ahead of San Jose in the standings but with a similar strength profile. For the Sharks to get in, they likely need to pass at least two of Anaheim, Seattle, Edmonton, or Los Angeles, which leaves little margin for prolonged slumps.
Remaining Schedule
San Jose has 27 games left with a favorable 15 at home, where they have played above .500, and an opponent strength of 49.3% that is softer than league average. The schedule is rated as average overall, and their expected 30 remaining points would put them at 88 total, about 2.6 points shy of the projected playoff cutoff of 90.6. That means they likely need closer to 32–34 points, roughly a 60% points pace the rest of the way, to truly control their fate.
Outlook
The Sharks’ path to the playoffs is narrow but realistic if they can turn home-ice advantage into a sustained run and tighten up defensively. As things stand, they are chasing the math rather than dictating it, and while a postseason berth is far from out of reach, it will require a clear uptick in performance and some help from rivals ahead of them.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has already reached that threshold. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 33.9% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 85–91 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 89–92 points. Finishes above the cutline in 38.4% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Western Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 68 | 57 | 25 | 52.5% | 40.0% | 53.2% | 96.3 | 91.1% | |
| 5 | 64 | 57 | 25 | 59.6% | 70.0% | 52.3% | 94.4 | 86.1% | |
| 6 | 64 | 58 | 24 | 52.1% | 50.0% | 53.3% | 90.6 | 58.5% | |
| 7 | 63 | 56 | 26 | 53.4% | 60.0% | 52.7% | 92.9 | 76.5% | |
| 8 | 63 | 56 | 26 | 56.6% | 80.0% | 49.1% | 94.9 | 86.2% | |
| 9 | 60 | 56 | 26 | 49.6% | 55.0% | 49.4% | 89.5 | 43.6% | |
| 10 | 59 | 57 | 25 | 45.6% | 45.0% | 53.0% | 85.7 | 19.3% | |
| 11 | 58 | 55 | 27 | 46.8% | 45.0% | 49.3% | 88.1 | 33.9% | |
| 12 | 53 | 57 | 25 | 42.4% | 40.0% | 52.9% | 78.7 | 1.0% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46.8% | 51.0% | 41.5% | 44.0% | 45.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | Macklin Celebrini | C | 55 | 28 | 53 | 81 | +10 | 0 | 29 | 34 | 21:11 | |
| 2 | Will Smith | C | 42 | 17 | 22 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 | 18:09 | |
| 21 | Alexander Wennberg | C | 55 | 10 | 27 | 37 | -16 | 0 | 19 | 71 | 20:48 | |
| 73 | Tyler Toffoli | C | 55 | 15 | 21 | 36 | -6 | 0 | 38 | 27 | 15:52 | |
| 72 | William Eklund | L | 51 | 11 | 24 | 35 | -26 | 0 | 45 | 35 | 19:27 | |
| 51 | Collin Graf | R | 54 | 15 | 16 | 31 | +4 | 0 | 56 | 35 | 16:30 | |
| 9 | Dmitry Orlov | D | 55 | 1 | 22 | 23 | -10 | 0 | 80 | 56 | 21:22 | |
| 81 | Adam Gaudette | R | 45 | 13 | 7 | 20 | -9 | 0 | 41 | 17 | 11:47 | |
| 3 | John Klingberg | D | 41 | 10 | 10 | 20 | -9 | 0 | 32 | 56 | 21:10 | |
| 96 | Philipp Kurashev | C | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | +3 | 0 | 34 | 10 | 15:55 | |
| 53 | Jeff Skinner | L | 32 | 6 | 7 | 13 | -8 | 0 | 17 | 11 | 12:20 | |
| 38 | Mario Ferraro | D | 55 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -2 | 0 | 94 | 104 | 20:52 | |
| 92 | Igor Chernyshov | L | 15 | 3 | 8 | 11 | +2 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 15:47 | |
| 10 | Ty Dellandrea | C | 42 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -15 | 0 | 117 | 36 | 14:24 | |
| 37 | Timothy Liljegren | D | 42 | 1 | 10 | 11 | -6 | 0 | 36 | 83 | 20:14 | |
| 84 | Pavol Regenda | L | 16 | 8 | 1 | 9 | +3 | 0 | 36 | 3 | 14:01 | |
| 23 | Barclay Goodrow | C | 55 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -13 | 0 | 83 | 43 | 11:27 | |
| 6 | Sam Dickinson | D | 45 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 0 | 42 | 41 | 15:48 | |
| 77 | Michael Misa | C | 18 | 2 | 6 | 8 | +1 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 11:49 | |
| 85 | Shakir Mukhamadullin | D | 26 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -4 | 0 | 13 | 35 | 16:15 | |
| 63 | Zack Ostapchuk | C | 32 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 0 | 78 | 13 | 9:48 | |
| 5 | Vincent Desharnais | D | 28 | 1 | 3 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 49 | 48 | 16:42 | |
| 4 | Nick Leddy | D | 19 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 17:30 | |
| 75 | Ryan Reaves | R | 46 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 0 | 142 | 15 | 7:58 | |
| 6 | Vincent Iorio | D | 21 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 0 | 11 | 32 | 16:29 | |
| 54 | Patrick Giles | R | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8:52 | |
| 44 | Kiefer Sherwood | L | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 17:39 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 04 | @ COL | 4 - 2 | L |
| Feb 02 | @ CHI | 6 - 3 | L |
| Jan 31 | @ CGY | 3 - 2 | L |
| Jan 29 | @ EDM | 4 - 3 | L (OT/SO) |
| Jan 27 | @ VAN | 2 - 5 | W |
| Jan 23 | vs NYR | 3 - 1 | W |
| Jan 20 | @ TBL | 4 - 1 | L |
| Jan 19 | @ FLA | 1 - 4 | W |
| Jan 16 | @ DET | 4 - 2 | L |
| Jan 15 | @ WSH | 2 - 3 | W |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 22:00 | vs Calgary Flames | Home | 44.6% | 1.32 | SJS (61%) |
| Feb 28, 16:00 | vs Edmonton Oilers | Home | 52.1% | 1.16 | SJS (52%) |
| Mar 01, 16:00 | vs Winnipeg Jets | Home | 45.7% | 1.21 | SJS (55%) |
| Mar 03, 22:00 | vs Montréal Canadiens | Home | 58.5% | 1.04 | MTL (55%) |
| Mar 06, 22:00 | vs St. Louis Blues | Home | 35.1% | 1.38 | SJS (65%) |
| Mar 07, 22:00 | vs New York Islanders | Home | 55.9% | 1.08 | NYI (52%) |
| Mar 10, 19:00 | @ Buffalo Sabres | Away | 59.0% | 0.96 | BUF (60%) |
| Mar 12, 19:00 | @ Boston Bruins | Away | 59.9% | 0.89 | BOS (63%) |
| Mar 14, 19:00 | @ Montréal Canadiens | Away | 58.5% | 1.02 | MTL (56%) |
| Mar 15, 17:00 | @ Ottawa Senators | Away | 55.5% | 0.98 | OTT (58%) |
| Total Expected (Next 10 games): | 11.0 pts | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.