San Jose Sharks ELIMINATED
Pacific Division, Western Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82 | 39 | 35 | 8 | 86 | 251 | 292 | -41 | 52.4% |
|
Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Apr 17, 2026
Likely First-Round Opponents
| Opponent | Probability | Likelihood |
|---|---|---|
Colorado Avalanche
|
2.2% |
Probabilities sum to 0.0% (= playoff probability). Remaining 100.0% = miss playoffs.
Analysis
Summary
The San Jose Sharks are clinging to faint playoff hopes with a 3.7% chance of qualifying, though that number has jumped by 5.5% after a recent surge. At 81 points with four games left, they likely need to reach at least 90 points to sneak in, meaning they’ll need near-perfect results and help from multiple teams above them.
Record and Recent Performance
San Jose sits at 37-34-7 through 78 games, good for a 51.9% points percentage, but their -43 goal differential (237 scored, 280 allowed) underscores how thin their margin has been all season. Their underlying team strength rating of 47.4% reflects a club that has been below average overall, though they’ve been more competitive at home (52.4%) than on the road (41.1%). Encouragingly, their recent form sits at 55.0%, which helps explain the modest bump in playoff probability, but the season-long defensive issues remain a significant drag.
The Competition
The Sharks are 11th in the conference, four points back of the cutline currently held by the Los Angeles Kings at 85 points, with Utah and Edmonton already locked in at 90 points apiece. Vegas (89 points, 98.4% playoff odds) and Anaheim (89 points, 97.8%) are nearly secure, leaving LA, Nashville (84 points), and Winnipeg (82 points) as the realistic targets. However, LA is projected to finish right at the 89.9-point cutoff, and both Nashville and Winnipeg project ahead of San Jose as well, meaning the Sharks likely need to leapfrog at least three teams in just four games — a very tall order.
Remaining Schedule
San Jose has four games remaining, one at home and three on the road, where they’ve struggled all year. The good news is the schedule is rated easy, with opponents carrying a combined 42.5% strength rating, well below the league average of 52.7%. They’re projected to earn 4.5 more points, which would bring them to 85 or 86 points — short of the projected 89.9 cutoff — so realistically they need at least three wins and probably four to force their way into the conversation.
Outlook
The math is simple but daunting: the Sharks probably need to win out and hope Los Angeles, Nashville, and Winnipeg all stumble. Their recent uptick in form and soft schedule give them a puncher’s chance, but their season-long profile and defensive struggles leave almost no margin for error. At 3.7%, this is a long shot — not impossible, but requiring both perfection and chaos.
Bandwagon Options
Your team's playoff hopes are fading — here are some teams worth cheering for:
Carolina Hurricanes
Metropolitan · Eastern| W | L | OTL | PTS | Diff | Str | Playoff | Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 22 | 7 | 113 | +56 | 65.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
The Hurricanes are a machine right now—deep, fast, and relentless. With Sebastian Aho driving play and a blue line that smothers opponents, they’re easy to appreciate if you like structured, high-tempo hockey. It’s a chance to watch a true Cup contender from the other conference without any Pacific baggage.
Buffalo Sabres
Atlantic · Eastern| W | L | OTL | PTS | Diff | Str | Playoff | Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 23 | 9 | 109 | +47 | 62.3% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
Buffalo is one of the most entertaining teams in the league, blending speed and skill with a hungry, up-and-coming core. They play aggressive, attack-first hockey that can turn any game into a track meet. If you want fun, high-event playoff games without West Coast rivalries involved, the Sabres are a great ride.
Colorado Avalanche
Central · Western| W | L | OTL | PTS | Diff | Str | Playoff | Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 16 | 11 | 121 | +99 | 69.3% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
If you just want to watch dominance, Colorado is the pick. With elite firepower and a massive goal differential, they can overwhelm teams in waves. They’re in the West but not a division rival, so you can enjoy the star power and highlight-reel moments without it feeling traitorous.
Montréal Canadiens
Atlantic · Eastern| W | L | OTL | PTS | Diff | Str | Playoff | Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 24 | 10 | 106 | +27 | 60.9% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
Montréal brings history, atmosphere, and a team that’s putting together a statement season. They’re balanced, disciplined, and getting big contributions up and down the lineup. Bandwagoning the Canadiens gives you meaningful Eastern Conference playoff drama in one of hockey’s loudest buildings.
Dallas Stars
Central · Western| W | L | OTL | PTS | Diff | Str | Playoff | Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 20 | 12 | 112 | +53 | 65.7% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
Dallas is deep, experienced, and built for playoff hockey. They can win tight defensive games or open things up when needed, which makes them dangerous in a long series. As a Central Division power, they’re safely outside the Pacific drama but still offer that Western Conference edge.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has mathematically clinched a playoff spot. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 86–86 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 90–90 points. Finishes above the cutline in 0.0% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Western Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 95 | 82 | 0 | 60.8% | 85.0% | 50.0% | 95.0 | 100.0% | |
| 5 | 93 | 82 | 0 | 57.2% | 70.0% | 50.0% | 93.0 | 100.0% | |
| 6 | 92 | 82 | 0 | 56.6% | 60.0% | 50.0% | 92.0 | 100.0% | |
| 7 | 92 | 82 | 0 | 46.5% | 30.0% | 50.0% | 92.0 | 100.0% | |
| 8 | 90 | 82 | 0 | 53.1% | 70.0% | 50.0% | 90.0 | 100.0% | |
| 9 | 86 | 82 | 0 | 51.0% | 65.0% | 50.0% | 86.0 | 0.0% | |
| 10 | 86 | 82 | 0 | 47.6% | 45.0% | 50.0% | 86.0 | 0.0% | |
| 11 | 86 | 82 | 0 | 48.0% | 55.0% | 50.0% | 86.0 | 0.0% | |
| 12 | 82 | 82 | 0 | 47.1% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 82.0 | 0.0% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48.0% | 52.3% | 42.6% | 42.5% | 55.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | Macklin Celebrini | C | 81 | 45 | 69 | 114 | +10 | 0 | 51 | 53 | 21:16 | |
| 2 | Will Smith | C | 68 | 24 | 35 | 59 | +3 | 0 | 15 | 12 | 18:06 | |
| 21 | Alexander Wennberg | C | 79 | 18 | 37 | 55 | -22 | 0 | 28 | 93 | 20:24 | |
| 72 | William Eklund | L | 77 | 15 | 37 | 52 | -29 | 0 | 71 | 50 | 18:29 | |
| 73 | Tyler Toffoli | C | 79 | 19 | 30 | 49 | -12 | 0 | 49 | 31 | 14:58 | |
| 51 | Collin Graf | R | 80 | 21 | 25 | 46 | +7 | 0 | 88 | 48 | 16:30 | |
| 9 | Dmitry Orlov | D | 81 | 2 | 34 | 36 | -27 | 0 | 122 | 76 | 21:09 | |
| 3 | John Klingberg | D | 55 | 10 | 17 | 27 | -14 | 0 | 45 | 62 | 20:32 | |
| 81 | Adam Gaudette | R | 65 | 17 | 8 | 25 | -8 | 0 | 53 | 33 | 11:29 | |
| 38 | Mario Ferraro | D | 81 | 7 | 16 | 23 | -1 | 0 | 135 | 149 | 21:02 | |
| 77 | Michael Misa | C | 44 | 9 | 12 | 21 | -2 | 0 | 14 | 22 | 12:41 | |
| 96 | Philipp Kurashev | C | 42 | 7 | 13 | 20 | +1 | 0 | 40 | 13 | 15:38 | |
| 92 | Igor Chernyshov | L | 28 | 9 | 10 | 19 | +2 | 0 | 17 | 13 | 15:03 | |
| 6 | Sam Dickinson | D | 71 | 1 | 13 | 14 | -3 | 0 | 73 | 67 | 16:45 | |
| 44 | Kiefer Sherwood | L | 27 | 6 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 0 | 125 | 8 | 16:44 | |
| 53 | Jeff Skinner | L | 32 | 6 | 7 | 13 | -8 | 0 | 17 | 11 | 12:20 | |
| 23 | Barclay Goodrow | C | 81 | 5 | 7 | 12 | -18 | 0 | 137 | 60 | 11:22 | |
| 85 | Shakir Mukhamadullin | D | 49 | 5 | 7 | 12 | -3 | 0 | 35 | 62 | 17:08 | |
| 10 | Ty Dellandrea | C | 46 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -18 | 0 | 130 | 37 | 14:11 | |
| 27 | Timothy Liljegren → WSH | D | 43 | 1 | 10 | 11 | -7 | 0 | 36 | 83 | 20:07 | |
| 84 | Pavol Regenda | L | 24 | 9 | 1 | 10 | -4 | 0 | 59 | 6 | 13:20 | |
| 63 | Zack Ostapchuk | C | 58 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 0 | 137 | 28 | 10:05 | |
| 5 | Vincent Desharnais | D | 53 | 1 | 6 | 7 | +8 | 0 | 103 | 83 | 18:10 | |
| 4 | Nick Leddy | D | 31 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -8 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 17:59 | |
| 75 | Ryan Reaves | R | 49 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 0 | 160 | 15 | 7:57 | |
| 6 | Vincent Iorio | D | 21 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 0 | 11 | 32 | 16:29 | |
| 54 | Patrick Giles | R | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8:52 | |
| 42 | Luca Cagnoni | D | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 18:02 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Location | Score | Result | Opp Strength | Playoff Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | Winnipeg Jets | Away | 1 - 6 | W | 47.1% | 0.0% |
| Apr 15 | Chicago Blackhawks | Away | 5 - 2 | L | 36.9% | 0.0% |
| Apr 13 | Nashville Predators | Away | 2 - 3 | W | 47.6% | +0.4% |
| Apr 11 | Vancouver Canucks | Home | 3 - 4 (OT) | OTL | 34.5% | -1.6% |
| Apr 09 | Anaheim Ducks | Away | 6 - 1 | L | 46.5% | -9.0% |
| Apr 08 | Edmonton Oilers | Home | 2 - 5 | L | 57.2% | -11.0% |
| Apr 06 | Chicago Blackhawks | Home | 3 - 2 | W | 36.9% | +7.8% |
| Apr 04 | Nashville Predators | Home | 3 - 6 | L | 47.6% | -16.7% |
| Apr 02 | Toronto Maple Leafs | Home | 4 - 1 | W | 40.1% | +9.4% |
| Apr 01 | Anaheim Ducks | Home | 4 - 3 | W | 46.5% | +8.6% |