hockeystats.io

Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 3–4 Final Anaheim DucksANA

Tuesday, October 14, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 210 3 25
Anaheim DucksANA 211 4 22

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
1:03 PIT Justin Brazeau (4) Ryan Shea (2), Evgeni Malkin (6) · tip-in xG 0.08 1–0 ▶
7:01 PIT Rickard Rakell (2) Ryan Shea (3), Sidney Crosby (2) · tip-in xG 0.09 2–0 ▶
9:42 ANA Chris Kreider (3)PP Leo Carlsson (3), Mikael Granlund (3) · tip-in xG 0.11 2–1 ▶
19:25 ANA Cutter Gauthier (3) Pavel Mintyukov (1), Beckett Sennecke (2) · slap xG 0.11 2–2 ▶
2nd Period
9:48 ANA Drew Helleson (1) Chris Kreider (1) · slap xG 0.02 2–3 ▶
17:01 PIT Anthony Mantha (1) Sidney Crosby (3), Bryan Rust (1) · wrist xG 0.14 3–3 ▶
3rd Period
18:33 ANA Chris Kreider (4)PP Troy Terry (3), Leo Carlsson (4) · snap xG 0.18 3–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

PIT 44%Deserve to win56% ANA
PITANA
2.28Expected goals2.62
3Goals (no shootout)4
2.23Expected goals, 5 on 51.26
53Shot attempts69
36Unblocked attempts43
25Shots on goal22

Shot map

PIT shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ ANA shoots
Connor Clifton: snap, 121 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 2:08) Bryan Rust: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:34) Cutter Gauthier: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:55) Mikael Granlund: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 3:40) Mason McTavish: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 4:59) Alex Killorn: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 5:58) Frank Vatrano: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:29) Rickard Rakell: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 6:49) Tommy Novak: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 7:27) Justin Brazeau: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 7:45) Filip Hallander: backhand, 134 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 8:06) Radko Gudas: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:41) Leo Carlsson: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 9:21) Jackson LaCombe: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 9:30) Evgeni Malkin: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 9:54) Sidney Crosby: backhand, 32 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:02) Bryan Rust: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:36) Radko Gudas: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 12:27) Chris Kreider: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 12:52) Chris Kreider: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 15:18) Ryan Shea: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 15:39) Troy Terry: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 16:12) Erik Karlsson: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 17:36) Sidney Crosby: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 18:14) Kris Letang: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 18:41) Evgeni Malkin: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:07) Tommy Novak: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 19:46) Tommy Novak: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 19:58) Rickard Rakell: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 0:35) Leo Carlsson: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 1:26) Mikael Granlund: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 1:55) Troy Terry: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 2:12) Chris Kreider: deflected, 8 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 2:20) Troy Terry: slap, 22 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 2:39) Olen Zellweger: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 3:49) Troy Terry: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 4:58) Philip Tomasino: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 5:07) Philip Tomasino: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 5:15) Mason McTavish: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 6:22) Connor Dewar: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 6:35) Nikita Nesterenko: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 7:12) Evgeni Malkin: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 8:18) Troy Terry: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 9:11) Troy Terry: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 9:25) Pavel Mintyukov: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 9:26) Connor Clifton: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:15) Ryan Shea: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:49) Chris Kreider: backhand, 18 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 13:05) Leo Carlsson: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 13:30) Chris Kreider: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 13:36) Beckett Sennecke: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 14:32) Philip Tomasino: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 14:48) Nikita Nesterenko: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:09) Mathew Dumba: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 16:17) Justin Brazeau: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 16:18) Ben Kindel: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 18:56) Ben Kindel: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 19:01) Drew Helleson: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 19:21) Anthony Mantha: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 1:00) Frank Vatrano: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 1:41) Olen Zellweger: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:04) Jacob Trouba: slap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:23) Mikael Granlund: bat, 6 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 4:08) Mikael Granlund: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:08) Mikael Granlund: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 4:34) Cutter Gauthier: backhand, 24 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 5:37) Sidney Crosby: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 8:16) Olen Zellweger: snap, 75 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 10:28) Drew Helleson: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:52) Ryan Shea: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:56) Connor Clifton: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 14:44) Anthony Mantha: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 15:37) Justin Brazeau: GOAL, tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 1:03) Rickard Rakell: GOAL, tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 7:01) Chris Kreider: GOAL, tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 9:42) Cutter Gauthier: GOAL, slap, 27 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 19:25) Drew Helleson: GOAL, slap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:48) Anthony Mantha: GOAL, wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 17:01) Chris Kreider: GOAL, snap, 19 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 18:33)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Pittsburgh Penguins

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
17 Bryan Rust 011 +2 20.03 0420:32
67 Rickard Rakell 101 +1 50.25 1117:57
87 Sidney Crosby 022 +2 40.23 0017:11
71 Evgeni Malkin 011 0 40.15 1016:47
16 Justin Brazeau 101 0 50.19 1314:19
81 Ben Kindel 000 -1 20.09 0014:12
39 Anthony Mantha 101 +1 40.20 0014:04
19 Connor Dewar 000 0 20.18 1013:06
18 Tommy Novak 000 -1 30.29 0212:43
46 Blake Lizotte 000 0 00.00 0010:53
19 Filip Hallander 000 0 20.00 0010:40
Defense
29 Parker Wotherspoon 000 0 00.00 2221:48
65 Erik Karlsson 000 0 40.03 0221:40
58 Kris Letang 000 0 20.02 1121:11
6 Ryan Shea 022 +2 30.15 0320:13
75 Connor Clifton 000 0 50.10 8418:21
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Tristan Jarry 22418 .818 2.62 -1.38

Anaheim Ducks

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
83 Mason McTavish 000 +1 20.12 0120:59
64 Mikael Granlund 011 0 50.39 0119:57
19 Troy Terry 011 -1 70.50 0019:55
45 Beckett Sennecke 011 +1 10.10 1018:57
61 Cutter Gauthier 101 +1 50.15 1118:31
22 Chris Kreider 213 -2 70.66 0015:13
91 Leo Carlsson 022 -2 80.29 0314:58
77 Frank Vatrano 000 0 20.02 2114:12
49 Ross Johnston 000 0 00.00 6011:09
13 Nikita Nesterenko 000 0 20.08 4010:37
25 Ryan Poehling 000 0 00.00 0010:04
17 Alex Killorn 000 -1 20.00 0009:55
Defense
2 Jackson LaCombe 000 -1 70.06 1426:06
6 Radko Gudas 000 -1 40.01 7320:02
8 Olen Zellweger 000 -2 30.09 0017:41
14 Drew Helleson 101 +2 50.10 0017:12
65 Jacob Trouba 000 -2 60.01 1117:09
98 Pavel Mintyukov 011 +2 30.03 2115:23
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Lukas Dostal 25322 .880 2.28 -0.72

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
5 Ryan Shea D +2.52 +1.40 +0.10 +0.85 0.00 0.00 +0.17 — 20:13
87 Sidney Crosby C +1.96 +1.25 +0.15 +0.69 -0.15 +0.06 -0.04 — 17:11
17 Bryan Rust R +1.42 +0.55 +0.02 +0.69 0.00 0.00 +0.16 — 20:32
39 Anthony Mantha R +1.40 +0.75 +0.13 +0.56 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 14:04
16 Justin Brazeau R +1.37 +0.75 +0.12 +0.37 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 14:19
67 Rickard Rakell R +1.12 +0.75 +0.16 +0.33 -0.15 -0.03 +0.05 — 17:57
71 Evgeni Malkin C +0.87 +0.55 +0.10 +0.29 0.00 -0.06 0.00 — 16:47
18 Tommy Novak C +0.69 0.00 +0.19 +0.43 0.00 -0.01 +0.08 — 12:43
53 Philip Tomasino R +0.65 0.00 +0.19 +0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.20 — 13:04
75 Connor Clifton D +0.62 0.00 +0.06 +0.38 0.00 0.00 +0.18 — 18:21
24 Mathew Dumba D +0.42 0.00 +0.05 +0.50 -0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 15:09
65 Erik Karlsson D +0.41 0.00 +0.02 +0.44 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 21:40
28 Parker Wotherspoon D +0.22 0.00 0.00 +0.27 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 21:48
46 Blake Lizotte C +0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.07 0.00 +0.04 -0.02 — 10:53
81 Ben Kindel C +0.06 0.00 +0.06 +0.03 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 14:12
11 Filip Hallander C +0.06 0.00 0.00 +0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:40
19 Connor Dewar C +0.02 0.00 +0.12 -0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:06
58 Kris Letang D -0.09 0.00 +0.01 +0.01 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 21:11
35 Tristan Jarry G -1.38 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.38 59:01

Anaheim Ducks

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
20 Chris Kreider L +2.02 +2.20 +0.43 -0.61 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:13
98 Pavel Mintyukov D +1.13 +0.70 +0.02 +0.21 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 15:23
91 Leo Carlsson C +0.87 +1.25 +0.19 -0.63 0.00 -0.09 +0.15 — 14:58
14 Drew Helleson D +0.87 +0.75 +0.07 +0.07 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:12
45 Beckett Sennecke R +0.82 +0.55 +0.06 -0.09 +0.30 0.00 0.00 — 18:57
61 Cutter Gauthier L +0.77 +0.75 +0.10 -0.07 0.00 0.00 -0.01 — 18:31
64 Mikael Granlund C +0.29 +0.55 +0.25 -0.62 0.00 +0.06 +0.05 — 19:57
19 Troy Terry R +0.25 +0.70 +0.32 -0.77 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:55
13 Nikita Nesterenko C +0.12 0.00 +0.05 +0.08 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 10:37
23 Mason McTavish C +0.12 0.00 +0.08 -0.02 0.00 +0.07 -0.01 — 20:59
25 Ryan Poehling C +0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.04 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 10:04
44 Ross Johnston L -0.03 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 11:09
51 Olen Zellweger D -0.38 0.00 +0.06 -0.59 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 17:41
2 Jackson LaCombe D -0.39 0.00 +0.04 -0.74 +0.15 0.00 +0.16 — 26:06
17 Alex Killorn L -0.41 0.00 0.00 -0.40 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 9:55
77 Frank Vatrano R -0.48 0.00 +0.02 -0.54 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:12
65 Jacob Trouba D -0.50 0.00 +0.01 -0.54 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:09
7 Radko Gudas D -0.70 0.00 +0.01 -0.85 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 20:02
1 Lukas Dostal G -0.72 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.72 60:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.