Anaheim Ducks
Pacific Division, Western Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 30 | 23 | 3 | 63 | 185 | 195 | -10 | 56.2% |
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Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Feb 20, 2026
Analysis
Summary
The Anaheim Ducks are in a strong position in the Western Conference playoff race, sitting right on the cutline with an 86.2% chance to qualify and a projected finish comfortably above the cutoff. While not dominant by goal differential, their recent surge and favorable schedule give them real momentum toward locking in a spot.
Record and Recent Performance
Anaheim is 30-23-3 through 56 games for 63 points and a 56.3% points percentage, which aligns well with a playoff-caliber profile. Their goal differential sits at -10 with 185 goals for and 195 against, suggesting they win tight games rather than overpowering opponents. Team strength is rated at 56.6% overall, driven by excellent home play at 67.7% compared to 48.7% on the road, and their recent form of 80.0% indicates they are playing their best hockey at the right time.
The Competition
The Ducks are currently eighth in the conference, tied on points with Seattle and just behind Utah and Edmonton, while Vegas leads this pack with 68 points. Vegas is projected at 96.3 points and looks difficult to catch, but Anaheim is tightly grouped with Utah at 94.4 projected points and ahead of Seattle at 92.9. The main threat comes from Edmonton at a projected 90.6 points and Los Angeles at 89.5, both of whom could pressure the cutline if Anaheim stumbles, but the Ducks’ playoff probability matches Utah’s at 86.2% and sits well ahead of most chasers.
Remaining Schedule
Anaheim has 26 games left, with a favorable 15 at home and 11 on the road, a meaningful edge given their strong home strength. The average opponent strength is 49.1%, well below the league average of 53.2%, making this a comparatively friendly slate despite being labeled average in overall difficulty. The Ducks are expected to earn about 31.9 more points, which would push them to 94.9 total points, comfortably above the projected cutoff of 90.6.
Outlook
If Anaheim continues anything close to its recent form and protects home ice, the Ducks are on track not just to make the playoffs but to do so with a small cushion. A division title remains a long shot at 27.4%, but the path to a wild card or lower-seed berth is clear, and their destiny is largely in their own hands.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has already reached that threshold. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 86.2% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 92–98 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 89–92 points. Finishes above the cutline in 88.6% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Western Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 68 | 57 | 25 | 52.5% | 40.0% | 53.2% | 96.3 | 91.1% | |
| 5 | 64 | 57 | 25 | 59.6% | 70.0% | 52.3% | 94.4 | 86.1% | |
| 6 | 64 | 58 | 24 | 52.1% | 50.0% | 53.3% | 90.6 | 58.5% | |
| 7 | 63 | 56 | 26 | 53.4% | 60.0% | 52.7% | 92.9 | 76.5% | |
| 8 | 63 | 56 | 26 | 56.6% | 80.0% | 49.1% | 94.9 | 86.2% | |
| 9 | 60 | 56 | 26 | 49.6% | 55.0% | 49.4% | 89.5 | 43.6% | |
| 10 | 59 | 57 | 25 | 45.6% | 45.0% | 53.0% | 85.7 | 19.3% | |
| 11 | 58 | 55 | 27 | 46.8% | 45.0% | 49.3% | 88.1 | 33.9% | |
| 12 | 53 | 57 | 25 | 42.4% | 40.0% | 52.9% | 78.7 | 1.0% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56.6% | 67.7% | 48.7% | 47.4% | 80.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | Cutter Gauthier | L | 55 | 25 | 24 | 49 | +2 | 0 | 44 | 16 | 17:24 | |
| 45 | Beckett Sennecke | R | 56 | 18 | 26 | 44 | -5 | 0 | 60 | 16 | 17:25 | |
| 91 | Leo Carlsson | C | 44 | 18 | 26 | 44 | +3 | 0 | 8 | 15 | 19:28 | |
| 19 | Troy Terry | R | 45 | 13 | 31 | 44 | +7 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 18:27 | |
| 2 | Jackson LaCombe | D | 56 | 6 | 31 | 37 | -5 | 0 | 48 | 97 | 24:30 | |
| 20 | Chris Kreider | L | 50 | 19 | 11 | 30 | -4 | 0 | 45 | 17 | 16:57 | |
| 23 | Mason McTavish | C | 51 | 13 | 17 | 30 | -11 | 0 | 56 | 28 | 16:18 | |
| 64 | Mikael Granlund | C | 38 | 12 | 15 | 27 | -10 | 0 | 24 | 26 | 18:55 | |
| 65 | Jacob Trouba | D | 55 | 9 | 16 | 25 | -1 | 0 | 100 | 110 | 22:33 | |
| 25 | Ryan Poehling | C | 49 | 5 | 17 | 22 | +9 | 0 | 25 | 57 | 14:18 | |
| 17 | Alex Killorn | L | 56 | 7 | 11 | 18 | -2 | 0 | 49 | 24 | 16:08 | |
| 51 | Olen Zellweger | D | 55 | 6 | 12 | 18 | +6 | 0 | 25 | 58 | 17:38 | |
| 98 | Pavel Mintyukov | D | 51 | 6 | 9 | 15 | -3 | 0 | 27 | 74 | 17:58 | |
| 44 | Ross Johnston | L | 54 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -4 | 0 | 163 | 14 | 9:40 | |
| 14 | Drew Helleson | D | 48 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 0 | 54 | 68 | 17:27 | |
| 7 | Radko Gudas | D | 43 | 1 | 9 | 10 | -2 | 0 | 147 | 73 | 16:52 | |
| 74 | Ian Moore | D | 41 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 63 | 14:10 | |
| 13 | Nikita Nesterenko | C | 29 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 0 | 53 | 8 | 12:15 | |
| 16 | Ryan Strome | C | 32 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -7 | 0 | 16 | 7 | 12:04 | |
| 77 | Frank Vatrano | R | 38 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 0 | 67 | 24 | 12:20 | |
| 24 | Jansen Harkins | C | 31 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 0 | 86 | 18 | 10:08 | |
| 28 | Jeffrey Viel | L | 9 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 6 | 13:14 | |
| 12 | Sam Colangelo | R | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 10:10 | |
| 42 | Tim Washe | C | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 25 | 8 | 11:50 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 03 | vs SEA | 4 - 2 | W |
| Feb 01 | vs VGK | 4 - 3 | W |
| Jan 29 | @ VAN | 2 - 0 | L |
| Jan 26 | @ EDM | 7 - 4 | L |
| Jan 25 | @ CGY | 3 - 4 | W (OT/SO) |
| Jan 23 | @ SEA | 2 - 4 | W |
| Jan 21 | @ COL | 1 - 2 | W (OT/SO) |
| Jan 19 | vs NYR | 5 - 3 | W |
| Jan 17 | vs LAK | 2 - 1 | W (OT/SO) |
| Jan 16 | @ LAK | 2 - 3 | W (OT/SO) |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 22:30 | vs Edmonton Oilers | Home | 52.1% | 1.28 | ANA (59%) |
| Feb 27, 22:00 | vs Winnipeg Jets | Home | 45.7% | 1.33 | ANA (61%) |
| Mar 01, 20:00 | vs Calgary Flames | Home | 44.6% | 1.44 | ANA (68%) |
| Mar 03, 22:00 | vs Colorado Avalanche | Home | 66.8% | 1.20 | ANA (55%) |
| Mar 04, 22:00 | vs New York Islanders | Home | 55.9% | 1.21 | ANA (55%) |
| Mar 06, 21:00 | vs Montréal Canadiens | Home | 58.5% | 1.16 | ANA (52%) |
| Mar 08, 21:00 | vs St. Louis Blues | Home | 35.1% | 1.49 | ANA (71%) |
| Mar 10, 20:30 | @ Winnipeg Jets | Away | 45.7% | 1.11 | WPG (51%) |
| Mar 12, 19:00 | @ Toronto Maple Leafs | Away | 49.8% | 1.08 | TOR (52%) |
| Mar 14, 13:00 | @ Ottawa Senators | Away | 55.5% | 1.05 | OTT (54%) |
| Total Expected (Next 10 games): | 12.4 pts | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.