Anaheim Ducks
Pacific Division, Western Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 41 | 31 | 5 | 87 | 257 | 271 | -14 | 56.5% |
|
Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Apr 07, 2026
Likely First-Round Opponents
| Opponent | Probability | Likelihood |
|---|---|---|
Vegas Golden Knights
|
38.4% | |
Utah Mammoth
|
29.2% | |
Edmonton Oilers
|
18.3% | |
Los Angeles Kings
|
4.6% | |
Colorado Avalanche
|
2.7% | |
San Jose Sharks
|
2.6% | |
Nashville Predators
|
0.7% |
Probabilities sum to 96.7% (= playoff probability). Remaining 3.3% = miss playoffs.
Analysis
Summary
The Anaheim Ducks are on the brink of locking up a playoff berth, sitting at 80 points with a 98.2% postseason probability after a recent bump upward. With a projected 95.5-point finish and nearly a 70% chance to win the division, their focus is shifting from simply getting in to securing the best possible seed.
Record and Recent Performance
Anaheim’s 38-27-4 record through 69 games translates to a solid 58.0% points percentage, good for fourth in the conference race. Interestingly, they’ve been outscored 237-229 on the season, suggesting they’ve won tight games and banked key points despite a negative goal differential. Their overall team strength rating of 52.5% is modest but supported by a dominant 61.3% mark at home, even as they’ve struggled on the road at 45.3%. A 55.0% recent form rating indicates steady, if unspectacular, play — enough to maintain separation in a crowded race.
The Competition
Utah (78 points) and Edmonton (77) are within striking distance, but both have played more games and are projected to finish behind Anaheim at 92.8 and 90.7 points, respectively. Vegas is level in games played and only four points back, though their 48.1% strength rating suggests limitations. The real battle line sits with Los Angeles at 72 points and a projected 88.1-point finish — right on the cutline — while Seattle, Nashville, and San Jose hover in the mid-80s projections. For Anaheim to miss, they would need a sharp downturn combined with multiple teams outperforming projections, which explains the slim 1.8% miss scenario.
Remaining Schedule
The Ducks have 13 games remaining, split 7 at home and 6 on the road, and the schedule sets up favorably. Their remaining opponents carry a 47.1% average strength, well below the league average of 53.3%, giving Anaheim one of the easier closes among bubble teams. The model projects 15.5 more points, which would land them comfortably above the 88.1-point cutoff. If they continue to leverage their home-ice advantage and play to their season-long baseline, they should clear 90 points without needing a dramatic surge.
Outlook
Anaheim’s playoff path is clear: handle business against weaker opponents and protect home ice. The numbers say they’re not just likely to get in, but likely to stay ahead of the wild-card scrum and potentially capture the division. With a manageable schedule and a cushion in hand, the Ducks control their fate — and barring a collapse, playoff hockey is returning to Anaheim.
Bandwagon Case
Why you should jump on the bandwagon:
If you’re looking for a team that feels ahead of schedule, Anaheim is a fun place to land. Trevor Zegras is still the headliner, and when he’s confident he can tilt a game with one touch, but this group isn’t just about flash anymore. Leo Carlsson has given them a legitimate two-way presence down the middle, Mason McTavish brings edge and scoring touch, and Troy Terry remains their most reliable offensive driver. On the back end, Pavel Mintyukov has added poise and puck movement, and John Gibson has rediscovered stretches of the form that once made him one of the league’s most feared goalies.
The storyline here is the shift from rebuild curiosity to real contender in the Pacific mix. After a few lean years, the Ducks are suddenly stacking wins and keeping pace in a crowded Western race. The goal differential isn’t dominant, which makes their climb more interesting — they’ve learned how to win tight games instead of just trading chances. That growth, especially from a young core that’s still figuring out how good it can be, gives this run some staying power.
They’re not a shutdown machine, and that’s part of the appeal. Anaheim plays with pace, leans into skill, and isn’t afraid to open things up, but there’s noticeably more structure than in past seasons. The power play can be creative and unpredictable, and their top six can push the tempo when games get loose. If you want a bandwagon that blends young talent, meaningful games, and the sense that something is building in real time, the Ducks make a pretty compelling case.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has mathematically clinched a playoff spot. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 96.7% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 91–94 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 88–90 points. Finishes above the cutline in 98.3% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Western Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 87 | 77 | 5 | 56.7% | 70.0% | 50.5% | 92.8 | 98.4% | |
| 5 | 87 | 77 | 5 | 50.6% | 50.0% | 48.3% | 92.8 | 96.7% | |
| 6 | 86 | 76 | 6 | 57.2% | 60.0% | 53.6% | 93.1 | 98.3% | |
| 7 | 86 | 77 | 5 | 52.5% | 50.0% | 47.1% | 92.0 | 96.2% | |
| 8 | 81 | 76 | 6 | 52.7% | 70.0% | 52.4% | 87.9 | 44.3% | |
| 9 | 81 | 76 | 6 | 50.1% | 60.0% | 43.3% | 88.1 | 36.7% | |
| 10 | 79 | 75 | 7 | 46.2% | 45.0% | 46.1% | 86.7 | 22.6% | |
| 11 | 78 | 76 | 6 | 50.7% | 70.0% | 55.9% | 84.7 | 5.6% | |
| 12 | 78 | 76 | 6 | 50.5% | 60.0% | 52.6% | 83.5 | 1.1% | |
Today's Impact
| Game | Impact | |
|---|---|---|
| SJS vs CHI |
SJS win:
-0.7%
CHI win:
+0.8%
|
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.6% | 57.8% | 44.8% | 47.4% | 50.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | Cutter Gauthier | L | 73 | 38 | 27 | 65 | -1 | 0 | 59 | 20 | 17:16 | |
| 91 | Leo Carlsson | C | 65 | 27 | 37 | 64 | +3 | 0 | 12 | 26 | 19:13 | |
| 45 | Beckett Sennecke | R | 77 | 23 | 35 | 58 | -10 | 0 | 93 | 24 | 17:27 | |
| 2 | Jackson LaCombe | D | 77 | 9 | 46 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 72 | 125 | 24:15 | |
| 19 | Troy Terry | R | 56 | 18 | 36 | 54 | +12 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 18:22 | |
| 20 | Chris Kreider | L | 71 | 22 | 25 | 47 | -6 | 0 | 66 | 20 | 17:09 | |
| 23 | Mason McTavish | C | 70 | 15 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 0 | 90 | 31 | 15:24 | |
| 64 | Mikael Granlund | C | 53 | 19 | 16 | 35 | -12 | 0 | 29 | 35 | 19:04 | |
| 25 | Ryan Poehling | C | 70 | 11 | 23 | 34 | +9 | 0 | 41 | 81 | 14:59 | |
| 65 | Jacob Trouba | D | 76 | 10 | 24 | 34 | +2 | 0 | 133 | 139 | 22:53 | |
| 17 | Alex Killorn | L | 77 | 13 | 17 | 30 | -4 | 0 | 64 | 28 | 16:37 | |
| 51 | Olen Zellweger | D | 75 | 7 | 15 | 22 | +3 | 0 | 32 | 84 | 17:05 | |
| 98 | Pavel Mintyukov | D | 68 | 8 | 12 | 20 | -4 | 0 | 36 | 105 | 18:26 | |
| 14 | Drew Helleson | D | 57 | 2 | 13 | 15 | -5 | 0 | 60 | 76 | 17:05 | |
| 44 | Ross Johnston | L | 62 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 16 | 9:44 | |
| 7 | Radko Gudas | D | 55 | 2 | 11 | 13 | -1 | 0 | 160 | 87 | 16:18 | |
| 3 | Ian Moore | D | 62 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -12 | 0 | 34 | 78 | 14:00 | |
| 28 | Jeffrey Viel | L | 30 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 0 | 83 | 16 | 12:51 | |
| 22 | Ryan Strome → CGY | C | 33 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -5 | 0 | 16 | 8 | 12:09 | |
| 13 | Nikita Nesterenko | C | 29 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 0 | 53 | 8 | 12:15 | |
| 74 | John Carlson ← WSH | D | 11 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 24:55 | |
| 77 | Frank Vatrano | R | 48 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -15 | 0 | 80 | 28 | 11:52 | |
| 24 | Jansen Harkins | C | 44 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -5 | 0 | 113 | 24 | 9:35 | |
| 42 | Tim Washe | C | 29 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 73 | 21 | 12:07 | |
| 12 | Sam Colangelo | R | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 10:10 | |
| 41 | Nathan Gaucher | C | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 8:01 | |
| 60 | Tyson Hinds | D | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 23:22 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Location | Score | Result | Opp Strength | Playoff Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 04 | Calgary Flames | Home | 3 - 5 | L | 47.3% | -0.9% |
| Apr 03 | St. Louis Blues | Home | 2 - 6 | L | 50.7% | -0.3% |
| Apr 01 | San Jose Sharks | Away | 4 - 3 | L | 46.2% | -0.1% |
| Mar 30 | Toronto Maple Leafs | Home | 4 - 5 (OT) | OTL | 47.0% | -0.1% |
| Mar 28 | Edmonton Oilers | Away | 4 - 2 | L | 56.7% | 0.0% |
| Mar 26 | Calgary Flames | Away | 2 - 3 (OT) | W | 47.3% | +0.1% |
| Mar 24 | Vancouver Canucks | Away | 3 - 5 | W | 30.1% | +0.1% |
| Mar 22 | Buffalo Sabres | Home | 6 - 5 (OT) | W | 60.0% | +0.7% |
| Mar 20 | Utah Mammoth | Away | 1 - 4 | W | 57.2% | +2.2% |
| Mar 18 | Philadelphia Flyers | Home | 2 - 3 (OT) | OTL | 56.2% | -2.6% |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Playoff Swing | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 07, 22:00 | vs Nashville Predators | Home | 52.7% | 1.19 | 5.8% | ANA (54%) |
| Apr 09, 22:00 | vs San Jose Sharks | Home | 46.2% | 1.28 | 6.3% | ANA (59%) |
| Apr 12, 20:00 | vs Vancouver Canucks | Home | 30.1% | 1.30 | - | ANA (60%) |
| Apr 14, 20:00 | @ Minnesota Wild | Away | 59.9% | 1.00 | - | MIN (57%) |
| Apr 16, 20:00 | @ Nashville Predators | Away | 52.7% | 1.02 | - | NSH (56%) |
| Averages (Next 5 games): | 5.8 pts | 3.3% | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.