Anaheim Ducks
Pacific Division, Western Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 100.0% |
|
Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Oct 05, 2026
Likely First-Round Opponents
| Opponent | Probability | Likelihood |
|---|---|---|
Calgary Flames
|
3.3% | |
Seattle Kraken
|
2.4% | |
Vegas Golden Knights
|
2.4% | |
Los Angeles Kings
|
1.9% | |
Dallas Stars
|
1.3% | |
Edmonton Oilers
|
1.2% | |
Chicago Blackhawks
|
1.0% | |
Utah Mammoth
|
0.6% |
Probabilities sum to 15.5% (= playoff probability). Remaining 84.5% = miss playoffs.
Analysis
Summary
The Anaheim Ducks are on the brink of a playoff berth, sitting at 89 points with a 97.8% postseason probability despite a slight 4.9% dip. With just three games remaining and a projected 92.3-point finish, they control their fate and need only modest results to lock in a spot.
Record and Recent Performance
At 42-32-5 through 79 games, Anaheim’s 89 points translate to a 56.3% points percentage, solid but not dominant. Their -14 goal differential (263 goals for, 277 against) suggests they’ve outperformed their underlying numbers, and their overall team strength rating of 49.6% backs that up. They’ve been significantly better at home (56.1%) than on the road (44.0%), which matters with two of three remaining games away, and their recent form rating of 45.0% indicates a slight dip at the wrong time. Even so, they’ve banked enough points to give themselves breathing room.
The Competition
The Ducks are locked in a tight cluster with Vegas (89 points), Edmonton (90), and Utah (90), all of whom are projected to finish between 92 and 95 points and have effectively clinched. Anaheim currently sits seventh in the conference, just ahead of the cutline, where Los Angeles has 85 points in 78 games and a projected 89.9-point finish. Nashville (84), Winnipeg (82), and San Jose (81) would need near-perfect finishes and help to catch Anaheim, making the Kings the only realistic threat. Given the projections, Anaheim likely needs to reach 91 or 92 points to remove all doubt.
Remaining Schedule
The Ducks have three games left, one at home and two on the road, but the good news is the slate is soft: their remaining opponents carry a combined strength rating of 45.8%, well below the 52.7% league average. The schedule is rated as easy overall, and Anaheim is projected to collect 3.4 more points, which would push them safely above the projected 89.9-point cutoff. Even a 1-1-1 finish might be enough, while two wins would almost certainly clinch their spot regardless of outside results.
Outlook
Anaheim has done the hard work to get to the edge of the postseason, and with a 97.8% playoff probability, it would take a significant stumble to miss out. While they’re unlikely to catch the teams above them for anything more than a wild-card position, their path to qualification is clear: steady, disciplined hockey against weaker opponents. One strong week should be enough to send the Ducks back to the playoffs.
Bandwagon Case
Why you should jump on the bandwagon:
If you’re looking for a team that feels ahead of schedule, Anaheim is a fun place to land. Trevor Zegras is still the headliner, and when he’s confident he can tilt a game with one touch, but this group isn’t just about flash anymore. Leo Carlsson has given them a legitimate two-way presence down the middle, Mason McTavish brings edge and scoring touch, and Troy Terry remains their most reliable offensive driver. On the back end, Pavel Mintyukov has added poise and puck movement, and John Gibson has rediscovered stretches of the form that once made him one of the league’s most feared goalies.
The storyline here is the shift from rebuild curiosity to real contender in the Pacific mix. After a few lean years, the Ducks are suddenly stacking wins and keeping pace in a crowded Western race. The goal differential isn’t dominant, which makes their climb more interesting — they’ve learned how to win tight games instead of just trading chances. That growth, especially from a young core that’s still figuring out how good it can be, gives this run some staying power.
They’re not a shutdown machine, and that’s part of the appeal. Anaheim plays with pace, leans into skill, and isn’t afraid to open things up, but there’s noticeably more structure than in past seasons. The power play can be creative and unpredictable, and their top six can push the tempo when games get loose. If you want a bandwagon that blends young talent, meaningful games, and the sense that something is building in real time, the Ducks make a pretty compelling case.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has mathematically clinched a playoff spot. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 15.5% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 81–92 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 94–97 points. Finishes above the cutline in 17.3% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Western Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 79 | 73.6% | 55.0% | 51.3% | 101.7 | 79.3% | |
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 79 | 62.7% | 50.0% | 52.3% | 97.8 | 66.1% | |
| 6 | 4 | 3 | 79 | 73.6% | 50.0% | 52.3% | 97.6 | 65.3% | |
| 7 | 4 | 2 | 80 | 72.1% | 45.0% | 51.4% | 86.3 | 15.5% | |
| 8 | 4 | 4 | 78 | 49.4% | 40.0% | 52.6% | 81.0 | 5.1% | |
| 9 | 4 | 2 | 80 | 75.2% | 70.0% | 51.7% | 85.9 | 14.4% | |
| 10 | 3 | 2 | 80 | 53.5% | 30.0% | 52.4% | 81.3 | 4.7% | |
| 11 | 2 | 2 | 80 | 47.5% | 60.0% | 52.5% | 92.1 | 34.8% | |
| 12 | 2 | 2 | 80 | 39.0% | 30.0% | 52.9% | 84.2 | 8.9% | |
Yesterday's Impact
| Result | Impact | |
|---|---|---|
| ANA 3 - FLA 2 (OT) | ANA played |
+1.6%
|
| Net: | +1.6% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72.1% | 46.1% | 34.7% | 66.2% | 45.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | Cutter Gauthier | L | 78 | 43 | 30 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 69 | 22 | 17:18 | |
| 91 | Leo Carlsson | C | 72 | 30 | 42 | 72 | +4 | 0 | 14 | 32 | 19:11 | |
| 45 | Beckett Sennecke | R | 84 | 24 | 38 | 62 | -9 | 0 | 99 | 27 | 17:30 | |
| 2 | Jackson LaCombe | D | 84 | 10 | 50 | 60 | -1 | 0 | 76 | 132 | 24:22 | |
| 64 | Mikael Granlund | C | 60 | 20 | 23 | 43 | -9 | 0 | 32 | 42 | 19:13 | |
| 25 | Ryan Poehling | C | 77 | 11 | 25 | 36 | +6 | 0 | 44 | 89 | 15:03 | |
| 17 | Alex Killorn | L | 84 | 16 | 18 | 34 | -2 | 0 | 72 | 30 | 16:40 | |
| 98 | Pavel Mintyukov | D | 75 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -4 | 0 | 39 | 114 | 18:29 | |
| 77 | Frank Vatrano | R | 51 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -16 | 0 | 84 | 28 | 11:47 | |
| 13 | Nikita Nesterenko | C | 31 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 0 | 59 | 8 | 12:10 | |
| 42 | Tim Washe | C | 36 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 0 | 86 | 24 | 12:21 | |
| 39 | Jeff Malott ← LAK | L | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 9:17 | |
| 12 | Sam Colangelo | R | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 10:12 | |
| 18 | A.J. Greer ← FLA | L | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 14:13 | |
| 47 | Noah Warren | D | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12:46 | |
| 67 | Tristan Luneau | D | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 26:47 | |
| 38 | James Hamblin ← EDM | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 34 | Travis Mitchell | D | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 17:22 | |
| 28 | Judd Caulfield | R | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 11:33 | |
| 55 | Tyson Hinds | D | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9 | 11 | 14:42 | |
| 4 | Nick Jensen ← OTT | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 24 | Anton Wahlberg ← BUF | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Location | Score | Result | Opp Strength | Playoff Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 04 | Florida Panthers | Home | 3 - 2 (OT) | W | 57.2% | +1.6% |
| Oct 02 | Vegas Golden Knights | Away | 3 - 4 | W | 62.7% | +4.6% |
| Sep 26 | Los Angeles Kings | Away | 6 - 2 | L | 27.2% | - |
| Sep 24 | San Jose Sharks | Away | 10 - 0 | L | 75.2% | - |
| Sep 23 | Los Angeles Kings | Home | 1 - 2 | L | 27.2% | - |
| Sep 20 | San Jose Sharks | Home | 6 - 2 | W | 75.2% | - |
| May 14 | Vegas Golden Knights | Home | 1 - 5 | L | 62.7% | - |
| May 12 | Vegas Golden Knights | Away | 3 - 2 (OT) | OTL | 62.7% | - |
| May 10 | Vegas Golden Knights | Home | 4 - 3 | W | 62.7% | - |
| May 08 | Vegas Golden Knights | Home | 2 - 6 | L | 62.7% | - |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Playoff Swing | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 12:00 | @ Edmonton Oilers | Away | 70.8% | 0.94 | - | EDM (60%) |
| May 16, 17:00 | @ Vegas Golden Knights | Away | 62.7% | 0.92 | - | VGK (62%) |
| Oct 07, 22:00 | vs Edmonton Oilers | Home | 70.8% | 1.14 | 5.5% | ANA (51%) |
| Oct 09, 20:00 | @ Winnipeg Jets | Away | 53.5% | 1.07 | 4.5% | WPG (53%) |
| Oct 10, 22:00 | @ Calgary Flames | Away | 8.7% | 0.78 | 4.8% | CGY (70%) |
| Oct 13, 21:45 | vs Calgary Flames | Home | 8.7% | 0.89 | - | CGY (63%) |
| Oct 16, 22:00 | vs Boston Bruins | Home | 59.3% | 1.13 | - | ANA (50%) |
| Oct 19, 19:00 | @ New York Rangers | Away | 73.0% | 1.03 | - | NYR (56%) |
| Oct 20, 19:00 | @ New York Islanders | Away | 67.2% | 0.81 | - | NYI (68%) |
| Oct 22, 19:00 | @ New Jersey Devils | Away | 34.2% | 1.07 | - | NJD (53%) |
| Averages (Next 10 games): | 9.8 pts | 3.9% | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.