PIT

Pittsburgh Penguins

Metropolitan Division, Eastern Conference

Current Standings

GP W L OTL PTS GF GA DIFF PTS % Last 10
56 29 15 12 70 192 169 +23 62.5%

Playoff Probabilities

91.3%
Make Playoffs
14.7%
Win Division
2.6%
Win Conference
7.1%
Win Stanley Cup

Based on 100,000 simulations run on Feb 20, 2026

Analysis

Summary

The Pittsburgh Penguins are in a strong position, sitting at a 91.3% playoff probability and projected to finish with 101.2 points, comfortably above the expected cutoff of 96.7. While their division and conference title odds are more modest at 14.7% and 13.2%, respectively, Pittsburgh looks far more likely to be a playoff participant than a bubble team.

Record and Recent Performance

Pittsburgh’s 29-15-12 record through 56 games translates to 70 points and a solid 62.5% points percentage, backed by a +23 goal differential with 192 goals for and 169 against. Their underlying team strength rating of 62.9% is one of the best among Eastern Conference bubble teams, and it is supported by excellent recent form at 80.0%, suggesting their play has trended upward at the right time. Stronger away performance at 67.7% compared to 60.8% at home also adds confidence that their results are sustainable down the stretch.

The Competition

In the tight middle of the conference race, Pittsburgh sits sixth but is effectively tied in projection with fourth-place Montreal, both expected to reach 101.2 points. Buffalo at 99.3 points and Boston at 97.7 remain legitimate threats, while the Islanders sit exactly at the projected cutoff with 96.7 points. Columbus is a notable wildcard, projected at 96.0 points with a relatively strong 60.7% team strength, but Washington, Ottawa, and Toronto appear to be long shots unless the Penguins stumble badly.

Remaining Schedule

The Penguins have 26 games remaining with an even 13 home and 13 road split, and their schedule is rated as balanced with average difficulty. Opponent strength checks in at 55.4%, slightly above league average, but not daunting given Pittsburgh’s overall profile. They are expected to collect about 31.2 more points, which would put them well clear of the cutline and give them some margin for error if they experience a short slump.

Outlook

Barring a major collapse, Pittsburgh is on track to qualify for the playoffs and could realistically challenge for a higher seed if their strong recent form continues. Their combination of above-average team strength, steady goal differential, and manageable schedule makes their path clearer than most teams in the race. The focus now shifts from simply getting in to whether they can secure favorable matchups and carry momentum into April.

Generated Feb 08, 2026 5:16 PM — AI-generated, may contain inaccuracies

Required Win Percentage for Playoffs

43.5%
Coin Flip (50%)
Even odds
48.7%
Likely (75%)
Probable scenario
55.3%
Near-Certain (95%)
Safe scenario

Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has already reached that threshold. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.

Playoff Probability Breakdown

Understanding the factors that drive the 91.3% playoff probability

📊 Schedule Context

Remaining Games: 13 home, 13 away (50% home)
Schedule Balance: Balanced
Opponent Strength: 55.4% (vs 53.2% avg)
Schedule Difficulty: Average

🎯 Key Factors

Conference Position: 6 in Eastern
Projected Points: 101.2 pts
Expected Points (Remaining): 31.2 pts
Based on: 100,000 simulations

🏒 Playoff Picture

8th Place Cutoff: ~96.6 pts (projected)
Points Gap: 4.5 pts above cutoff ✓
Current Points: 70 pts

Analysis

Strong playoff position, but not yet secure

Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.

Points Distribution vs. Cutline

Projected to finish with 98–104 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 95–97 points. Finishes above the cutline in 92.2% of simulations.

81 120
Team points Playoff cutline (8th place)

Team Projection

Low (10th pctile): 95 pts
Median (50th): 101 pts
High (90th pctile): 107 pts

Playoff Cutline

Low (10th pctile): 94 pts
Median (50th): 96 pts
High (90th pctile): 98 pts

Playoff Race — Eastern Conference

# Team PTS GP Left STR L10 SOS Proj PTS Playoff %
4
MTL
72 57 25 58.5% 65.0% 54.7% 101.2 87.5%
5
BUF
70 57 25 59.0% 65.0% 54.5% 99.3 81.8%
6
PIT
70 56 26 62.9% 80.0% 55.4% 101.2 91.3%
7
BOS
69 57 25 59.9% 75.0% 56.0% 97.7 70.1%
8
NYI
69 58 24 55.9% 60.0% 54.0% 96.6 63.9%
9
WSH
65 59 23 54.2% 55.0% 53.5% 91.2 20.4%
10
CBJ
65 56 26 60.7% 90.0% 54.6% 95.9 56.3%
11
OTT
63 57 25 55.5% 65.0% 53.8% 91.8 20.4%
12
TOR
63 57 25 49.8% 45.0% 54.3% 89.8 9.1%

Team Strength Metrics

Overall Strength Home Strength Away Strength Pythagorean Win % Recent Form
62.9% 60.8% 67.7% 56.3% 80.0%

Player Statistics

# Player Pos GP G A PTS +/- SOG HIT BLK TOI Performance
87 Sidney Crosby C 56 27 32 59 +1 0 50 23 19:35
71 Evgeni Malkin C 41 13 31 44 +13 0 16 14 17:34
39 Anthony Mantha R 56 20 22 42 +14 0 31 26 14:54
17 Bryan Rust R 49 19 21 40 -1 0 19 55 20:09
65 Erik Karlsson D 51 4 31 35 +6 0 13 43 23:40
18 Tommy Novak C 56 11 20 31 +3 0 9 20 13:37
16 Justin Brazeau R 42 15 12 27 +2 0 54 25 12:56
81 Ben Kindel C 53 14 13 27 -3 0 21 44 15:25
58 Kris Letang D 50 3 22 25 +3 0 67 64 22:05
19 Connor Dewar C 56 13 11 24 +11 0 107 27 13:38
67 Rickard Rakell R 35 10 14 24 0 0 50 30 18:58
5 Ryan Shea D 56 3 19 22 +21 0 31 65 19:02
28 Parker Wotherspoon D 56 3 16 19 +7 0 119 87 20:29
46 Blake Lizotte C 46 6 11 17 +10 0 41 25 13:44
55 Noel Acciari C 42 6 9 15 +9 0 46 31 13:08
59 Egor Chinakhov R 18 8 4 12 +4 0 10 6 13:38
77 Brett Kulak D 25 1 6 7 +2 0 5 39 20:19
3 Jack St. Ivany D 17 0 7 7 +7 0 40 23 15:38
13 Kevin Hayes R 24 3 2 5 -4 0 28 8 12:27
2 Rutger McGroarty R 20 2 3 5 -1 0 21 8 11:48
41 Ville Koivunen R 27 2 3 5 -5 0 3 11 12:41
11 Filip Hallander C 13 1 3 4 +4 0 3 5 13:08
75 Connor Clifton D 26 1 2 3 +1 0 107 41 16:21
7 Ilya Solovyov D 5 0 3 3 +6 0 5 3 13:49
85 Avery Hayes R 1 2 0 2 +2 0 2 0 10:09
43 Danton Heinen → CBJ L 13 1 1 2 +1 0 16 10 11:40
45 Harrison Brunicke D 9 1 0 1 -4 0 4 13 15:42
82 Caleb Jones D 7 0 1 1 +1 0 10 15 17:10
27 Ryan Graves D 2 0 0 0 +2 0 2 4 16:47

Recent Games (Last 10)

Date Opponent Score Result
Feb 05 @ BUF 2 - 5 W
Feb 03 @ NYI 5 - 4 L (OT/SO)
Feb 02 vs OTT 2 - 3 L
Jan 31 vs NYR 6 - 5 W
Jan 29 vs CHI 6 - 2 W
Jan 25 @ VAN 2 - 3 W
Jan 22 @ EDM 2 - 6 W
Jan 21 @ CGY 1 - 4 W
Jan 19 @ SEA 3 - 6 W
Jan 17 vs CBJ 3 - 4 L (OT/SO)

Upcoming Games

Date Opponent Location Opp Strength Exp Pts Predicted Winner
Feb 26, 19:00 vs New Jersey Devils Home 43.8% 1.26 PIT (58%)
Feb 28, 12:30 @ New York Rangers Away 37.8% 1.51 PIT (72%)
Mar 01, 13:00 vs Vegas Golden Knights Home 52.5% 1.19 PIT (54%)
Mar 03, 19:00 @ Boston Bruins Away 59.9% 1.10 BOS (51%)
Mar 05, 19:00 vs Buffalo Sabres Home 59.0% 1.17 PIT (53%)
Mar 07, 17:30 vs Philadelphia Flyers Home 48.5% 1.24 PIT (57%)
Mar 08, 16:30 vs Boston Bruins Home 59.9% 1.21 PIT (55%)
Mar 10, 19:00 @ Carolina Hurricanes Away 68.2% 1.11 CAR (51%)
Mar 12, 22:00 @ Vegas Golden Knights Away 52.5% 1.24 PIT (56%)
Mar 14, 21:00 @ Utah Mammoth Away 59.6% 1.09 UTA (52%)
Total Expected (Next 10 games): 12.1 pts

Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.