Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken,
the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
OTT 67%Deserve to win33% BUF
OTT
BUF
3.82
Expected goals
3.65
4
Goals (no shootout)
8
2.43
Expected goals, 5 on 5
1.71
78
Shot attempts
42
52
Unblocked attempts
32
37
Shots on goal
27
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is
counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the
shots' expected goals (xG).
2nd Period
5:40
OTT
xG swing
xG swing · Out-chanced BUF 1.30–0.08
In xG over 10 minutes, 16:20 of the 1st to 6:20 of the 2nd; goals 1–0
11:46
OTT
Goalie
Goalie · Meriläinen −2.4 goals saved
4 goals on 1.60 xG, 14 shots on goal
16:10
BUF
xG swing
xG swing · Out-chanced OTT 1.62–0.15
In xG over 10 minutes, 7:30 to 17:30 of the 2nd; goals 3–0
19:20
BUF
No shift
No shift · Danforth, 28:37 on the bench
No shift after 2:45 of the 2nd; 10 shifts (6:14) before that
3rd Period
3:17
OTT
Goalie
Goalie · Meriläinen −4.3 goals saved
7 goals on 2.71 xG, 25 shots on goal
5:30
BUF
No shift
No shift · Johnson, 22:32 on the bench
No shift after 15:23 of the 2nd; 9 shifts (5:12) before that
5:30
BUF
No shift
No shift · Malenstyn, 15:36 on the bench
No shift from 15:21 of the 2nd to 10:57 of the 3rd; 13 shifts (9:51) before that
14:54
OTT
Pulled goalie
Pulled goalie · Pulled Meriläinen, down 7–4
With 5:06 left; BUF scored at 16:44 of the 3rd (4–8)
Shot map
OTT shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ BUF shoots
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot
from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the
share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how
often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count
as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map
leaves them out.
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a
player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays,
all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.
