Buffalo Sabres
Atlantic Division, Eastern Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 32 | 19 | 6 | 70 | 195 | 176 | +19 | 61.4% |
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Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Feb 20, 2026
Analysis
Summary
The Buffalo Sabres are in a strong playoff position with an 81.8% chance of qualifying, projecting to finish comfortably above the Eastern Conference cutline. While they are unlikely to win the division or conference, they are tracking as a solid playoff team with some margin for error.
Record and Recent Performance
Buffalo sits at 32-19-6 for 70 points through 57 games, translating to a healthy 61.4% points percentage that aligns with a projected 99.3-point finish. Their +19 goal differential reflects a team that generally controls play, and a 59.0% overall strength rating suggests they are legitimately above average, especially at home where that jumps to 61.3%. Recent form has been strong at 65.0%, indicating the Sabres have been banking points at a pace consistent with a playoff club.
The Competition
The Sabres are currently fifth in the conference race, tied in points with Pittsburgh but trailing them in games played, while sitting just behind Montreal and ahead of Boston and the Islanders. Montreal and Pittsburgh are both projected around 101 points with playoff odds north of 87%, making it difficult for Buffalo to climb higher than a wild-card position. Below them, Boston, the Islanders, and Columbus are the primary threats, with the Islanders sitting right on the projected cutline at 96.7 points, meaning Buffalo’s cushion exists but is not large enough to invite a prolonged slump.
Remaining Schedule
Buffalo has 25 games remaining with a near-even split of 13 at home and 12 on the road, and a schedule rated as average in difficulty with opponent strength at 54.5%, slightly above league average. The balance of the schedule means there is no obvious soft stretch to rely on, but also no punishing run that should derail them. Based on current strength and opponent quality, the Sabres are expected to earn about 29.3 more points, which would place them safely above the projected playoff cutoff.
Outlook
If the Sabres continue to play at anything close to their current level, they should secure a playoff spot without needing help from other teams. The path is more about holding position than chasing down the teams ahead, and avoiding a downturn that would allow Boston, the Islanders, or Columbus back into the picture. Overall, Buffalo controls its own destiny and looks poised to return to the postseason.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has already reached that threshold. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 81.8% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 96–102 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 95–97 points. Finishes above the cutline in 83.7% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Eastern Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 72 | 57 | 25 | 58.5% | 65.0% | 54.7% | 101.2 | 87.5% | |
| 5 | 70 | 57 | 25 | 59.0% | 65.0% | 54.5% | 99.3 | 81.8% | |
| 6 | 70 | 56 | 26 | 62.9% | 80.0% | 55.4% | 101.2 | 91.3% | |
| 7 | 69 | 57 | 25 | 59.9% | 75.0% | 56.0% | 97.7 | 70.1% | |
| 8 | 69 | 58 | 24 | 55.9% | 60.0% | 54.0% | 96.6 | 63.9% | |
| 9 | 65 | 59 | 23 | 54.2% | 55.0% | 53.5% | 91.2 | 20.4% | |
| 10 | 65 | 56 | 26 | 60.7% | 90.0% | 54.6% | 95.9 | 56.3% | |
| 11 | 63 | 57 | 25 | 55.5% | 65.0% | 53.8% | 91.8 | 20.4% | |
| 12 | 63 | 57 | 25 | 49.8% | 45.0% | 54.3% | 89.8 | 9.1% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59.0% | 61.3% | 54.4% | 55.1% | 65.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | Tage Thompson | C | 57 | 30 | 29 | 59 | -8 | 0 | 54 | 35 | 19:09 | |
| 89 | Alex Tuch | R | 56 | 22 | 26 | 48 | +14 | 0 | 58 | 63 | 18:47 | |
| 26 | Rasmus Dahlin | D | 53 | 11 | 37 | 48 | -6 | 0 | 50 | 68 | 24:32 | |
| 71 | Ryan McLeod | C | 57 | 11 | 30 | 41 | +19 | 0 | 14 | 23 | 17:45 | |
| 91 | Josh Doan | R | 57 | 18 | 21 | 39 | -7 | 0 | 53 | 23 | 16:06 | |
| 22 | Jack Quinn | R | 57 | 12 | 25 | 37 | +1 | 0 | 27 | 20 | 15:45 | |
| 23 | Mattias Samuelsson | D | 55 | 11 | 23 | 34 | +26 | 0 | 93 | 112 | 23:02 | |
| 17 | Jason Zucker | L | 38 | 15 | 14 | 29 | -9 | 0 | 38 | 9 | 15:59 | |
| 4 | Bowen Byram | D | 57 | 10 | 18 | 28 | +10 | 0 | 31 | 70 | 22:30 | |
| 6 | Zach Benson | L | 42 | 7 | 19 | 26 | +16 | 0 | 21 | 15 | 16:29 | |
| 19 | Peyton Krebs | C | 57 | 7 | 18 | 25 | +3 | 0 | 133 | 31 | 13:40 | |
| 86 | Noah Ostlund | C | 45 | 10 | 9 | 19 | +5 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 13:32 | |
| 25 | Owen Power | D | 56 | 4 | 13 | 17 | +1 | 0 | 26 | 60 | 21:39 | |
| 9 | Josh Norris | C | 19 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 15:57 | |
| 29 | Beck Malenstyn | L | 56 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -6 | 0 | 198 | 56 | 11:08 | |
| 21 | Conor Timmins | D | 33 | 0 | 6 | 6 | -11 | 0 | 25 | 70 | 19:14 | |
| 20 | Jiri Kulich | C | 12 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 0 | 9 | 12 | 16:21 | |
| 78 | Jacob Bryson | D | 35 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 9 | 20 | 10:02 | |
| 12 | Jordan Greenway | L | 33 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 0 | 49 | 15 | 12:23 | |
| 48 | Tyson Kozak | C | 35 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 92 | 28 | 11:21 | |
| 44 | Josh Dunne | C | 28 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 0 | 34 | 12 | 9:30 | |
| 94 | Konsta Helenius | C | 9 | 1 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 11:54 | |
| 73 | Zach Metsa | D | 26 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +13 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 9:42 | |
| 8 | Michael Kesselring | D | 24 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19 | 32 | 14:04 | |
| 63 | Isak Rosen | R | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7:20 | |
| 15 | Justin Danforth | R | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11:42 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 05 | vs PIT | 2 - 5 | L |
| Feb 03 | @ TBL | 4 - 3 | L (OT/SO) |
| Feb 02 | @ FLA | 3 - 5 | W |
| Jan 31 | vs MTL | 2 - 4 | L |
| Jan 29 | vs LAK | 4 - 1 | W |
| Jan 27 | @ TOR | 4 - 7 | W |
| Jan 24 | @ NYI | 0 - 5 | W |
| Jan 22 | @ MTL | 2 - 4 | W |
| Jan 20 | @ NSH | 3 - 5 | W |
| Jan 19 | @ CAR | 2 - 1 | L |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 19:00 | @ New Jersey Devils | Away | 43.8% | 1.21 | BUF (55%) |
| Feb 27, 19:00 | @ Florida Panthers | Away | 46.7% | 1.18 | BUF (53%) |
| Feb 28, 19:00 | @ Tampa Bay Lightning | Away | 71.7% | 1.02 | TBL (56%) |
| Mar 03, 19:00 | vs Vegas Golden Knights | Home | 52.5% | 1.20 | BUF (54%) |
| Mar 05, 19:00 | @ Pittsburgh Penguins | Away | 62.9% | 1.08 | PIT (53%) |
| Mar 07, 17:30 | vs Nashville Predators | Home | 45.6% | 1.28 | BUF (59%) |
| Mar 08, 18:00 | vs Tampa Bay Lightning | Home | 71.7% | 1.05 | TBL (54%) |
| Mar 10, 19:00 | vs San Jose Sharks | Home | 46.8% | 1.29 | BUF (60%) |
| Mar 12, 19:00 | vs Washington Capitals | Home | 54.2% | 1.24 | BUF (56%) |
| Mar 14, 19:00 | vs Toronto Maple Leafs | Home | 49.8% | 1.27 | BUF (59%) |
| Total Expected (Next 10 games): | 11.8 pts | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.