Calgary FlamesCGY 1–3 Final Utah MammothUTA

Wednesday, October 15, 2025

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Calgary FlamesCGY	1	0	0	1	20
Utah MammothUTA	0	2	1	3	32

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
8:37	CGY	Rasmus Andersson (1)PP Morgan Frost (1), Nazem Kadri (3) · slap xG 0.32	1–0 ▶
2nd Period
1:16	UTA	Barrett Hayton (1) Nick Schmaltz (3), John Marino (2) · snap xG 0.15	1–1 ▶
4:24	UTA	JJ Peterka (2) Unassisted · snap xG 0.23	1–2 ▶
3rd Period
19:37	UTA	Kevin Stenlund (1)EN Unassisted · snap xG 0.43	1–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

CGY 54%Deserve to win46% UTA

CGY		UTA
3.44	Expected goals	3.65
1	Goals (no shootout)	3
2.20	Expected goals, 5 on 5	1.74
56	Shot attempts	62
39	Unblocked attempts	48
20	Shots on goal	32

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
5:30	UTA	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced CGY 1.51–0.01 In xG over 10 minutes, 2:10 to 12:10 of the 2nd; goals 1–0
8:19	UTA	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · UTA takes the lead, 61–39% CGY had led since 8:37 of the 1st, by as much as 75%
3rd Period
7:40	CGY	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced UTA 1.54–0.13 In xG over 10 minutes, 19:20 of the 2nd to 9:20 of the 3rd; neither team scored
12:35	UTA	Goalie	Goalie · Vejmelka +2.0 goals saved 1 goal on 3.02 xG, 15 shots on goal
17:20	UTA	No shift	No shift · Yamamoto, 11:13 on the bench No shift after 5:09 of the 3rd; 12 shifts (11:13) before that
18:19	CGY	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Cooley, down 2–1 With 1:41 left; UTA scored at 19:37 of the 3rd (1–3)

Shot map

CGY shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ UTA shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Calgary Flames

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
86	Joel Farabee	0	0	0	-1	7	0.49	2	0	19:49
91	Nazem Kadri	0	1	1	-1	2	0.08	0	1	19:46
11	Mikael Backlund	0	0	0	-1	2	0.00	2	0	19:09
20	Blake Coleman	0	0	0	-1	4	0.69	1	0	17:58
27	Matt Coronato	0	0	0	-1	6	0.47	0	0	16:11
16	Morgan Frost	0	1	1	-1	3	0.15	1	0	15:01
17	Yegor Sharangovich	0	0	0	0	4	0.29	0	0	13:38
47	Connor Zary	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	0	0	13:35
29	Samuel Honzek	0	0	0	-1	4	0.24	2	1	13:00
28	Justin Kirkland	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	1	0	09:19
94	Ryan Lomberg	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	6	1	08:26
43	Adam Klapka	0	0	0	-1	3	0.26	2	0	07:30
Defense
52	MacKenzie Weegar	0	0	0	-2	2	0.05	2	2	23:54
4	Rasmus Andersson	1	0	1	0	5	0.47	0	1	23:23
7	Kevin Bahl	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	3	23:16
19	Zayne Parekh	0	0	0	-2	7	0.15	1	2	17:25
44	Joel Hanley	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	2	14:36
94	Brayden Pachal	0	0	0	-1	4	0.05	1	1	13:22

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Devin Cooley	31	2	29	.935	3.22	+1.22

Utah Mammoth

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
92	Logan Cooley	0	0	0	+1	5	0.53	1	0	20:28
9	Clayton Keller	0	0	0	+1	7	0.37	0	0	20:23
8	Nick Schmaltz	0	1	1	+1	8	0.47	1	0	19:52
27	Barrett Hayton	1	0	1	+1	3	0.23	1	0	18:08
11	Dylan Guenther	0	0	0	+1	7	0.40	3	0	16:54
10	JJ Peterka	1	0	1	+1	5	0.34	0	0	16:30
82	Kevin Stenlund	1	0	1	+1	4	0.62	0	2	14:30
22	Jack McBain	0	0	0	+1	1	0.10	2	1	14:17
67	Lawson Crouse	0	0	0	+1	6	0.28	6	1	13:45
56	Kailer Yamamoto	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	11:13
13	Brandon Tanev	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	6	2	10:28
53	Michael Carcone	0	0	0	0	3	0.03	0	0	07:55
Defense
98	Mikhail Sergachev	0	0	0	+1	5	0.11	1	2	24:21
88	Nate Schmidt	0	0	0	+2	3	0.08	0	1	22:29
6	John Marino	0	1	1	+2	1	0.07	0	2	19:20
28	Ian Cole	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	3	16:32
3	Olli Maatta	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0	1	11:40

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Karel Vejmelka	20	1	19	.950	3.44	+2.44

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Calgary Flames

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
4 Rasmus Andersson D	+2.13	+0.75	+0.31	+1.00	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	23:23
7 Kevin Bahl D	+1.41	0.00	0.00	+1.24	0.00	0.00	+0.17	—	23:16
16 Morgan Frost C	+1.33	+0.70	+0.10	+0.72	-0.15	0.00	-0.04	—	15:01
1 Devin Cooley G	+1.22	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.22	58:42
91 Nazem Kadri C	+0.88	+0.55	+0.05	+0.04	+0.15	+0.03	+0.05	—	19:46
86 Joel Farabee L	+0.75	0.00	+0.32	+0.47	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	19:49
27 Matt Coronato R	+0.67	0.00	+0.31	+0.25	+0.15	0.00	-0.04	—	16:11
20 Blake Coleman L	+0.59	0.00	+0.45	+0.14	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	17:58
29 Samuel Honzek L	+0.40	0.00	+0.16	+0.05	+0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	13:00
17 Yegor Sharangovich C	+0.33	0.00	+0.19	+0.15	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	13:38
47 Connor Zary C	+0.04	0.00	+0.02	+0.04	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	13:35
19 Zayne Parekh D	-0.01	0.00	+0.10	-0.20	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	17:25
43 Adam Klapka R	-0.11	0.00	+0.17	-0.13	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	7:30
23 Justin Kirkland C	-0.32	0.00	0.00	-0.32	0.00	+0.02	-0.02	—	9:19
70 Ryan Lomberg L	-0.32	0.00	0.00	-0.38	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	8:26
11 Mikael Backlund C	-0.34	0.00	0.00	-0.22	-0.15	+0.03	0.00	—	19:09
94 Brayden Pachal D	-0.38	0.00	+0.03	-0.30	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	13:22
52 MacKenzie Weegar D	-0.68	0.00	+0.03	-0.65	-0.15	0.00	+0.08	—	23:54
44 Joel Hanley D	-0.72	0.00	0.00	-0.84	0.00	0.00	+0.12	—	14:36

Utah Mammoth

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
70 Karel Vejmelka G	+2.29	0.00	—	—	-0.15	—	—	+2.44	59:42
8 Nick Schmaltz C	+1.46	+0.70	+0.31	+0.08	+0.45	-0.05	-0.02	—	19:52
77 JJ Peterka R	+1.29	+0.75	+0.22	+0.32	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	16:30
6 John Marino D	+1.13	+0.55	+0.05	+0.43	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	19:20
27 Barrett Hayton C	+1.07	+0.75	+0.15	0.00	+0.15	0.00	+0.02	—	18:08
82 Kevin Stenlund C	+0.92	+0.75	+0.41	-0.21	-0.15	+0.03	+0.10	—	14:30
88 Nate Schmidt D	+0.83	0.00	+0.05	+0.75	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	22:29
11 Dylan Guenther R	+0.81	0.00	+0.26	+0.40	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	16:54
92 Logan Cooley C	+0.79	0.00	+0.34	+0.31	+0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	20:28
9 Clayton Keller R	+0.42	0.00	+0.24	+0.37	-0.15	0.00	-0.04	—	20:23
2 Olli Maatta D	-0.07	0.00	0.00	-0.10	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	11:40
67 Lawson Crouse L	-0.13	0.00	+0.18	-0.34	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	13:45
22 Jack McBain C	-0.26	0.00	+0.06	-0.35	0.00	-0.03	+0.05	—	14:17
56 Kailer Yamamoto R	-0.28	0.00	0.00	-0.25	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	11:13
13 Brandon Tanev L	-0.29	0.00	0.00	-0.40	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	10:28
28 Ian Cole D	-0.37	0.00	0.00	-0.52	0.00	0.00	+0.15	—	16:32
53 Michael Carcone L	-0.40	0.00	+0.02	-0.41	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	7:55
98 Mikhail Sergachev D	-0.45	0.00	+0.07	-0.47	-0.15	0.00	+0.10	—	24:21
26 Dmitri Simashev D	-0.57	0.00	+0.01	-0.66	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	14:17

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.