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New York RangersNYR 1–2 Final/OT Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

Thursday, October 16, 2025

Final/OT 1st2nd3rdOT T SOG
New York RangersNYR 0010 1 29
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 1001 2 24

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
11:48 TOR Matthew Knies (2)PP William Nylander (6), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (3) · deflected xG 0.09 0–1 ▶
2nd Period
No scoring
3rd Period
4:51 NYR Juuso Parssinen (1) Braden Schneider (2) · tip-in xG 0.10 1–1 ▶
Overtime
0:58 TOR Auston Matthews (4) William Nylander (7), Morgan Rielly (4) · tip-in xG 0.13 1–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

NYR 63%Deserve to win37% TOR
NYRTOR
3.09Expected goals2.33
1Goals (no shootout)2
1.99Expected goals, 5 on 51.44
58Shot attempts48
45Unblocked attempts38
29Shots on goal24

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
11:36 TOR Deserve to win Deserve to win · TOR takes the lead, 60–40%
NYR had led since 8:29 of the 1st, by as much as 61%
3rd Period
0:20 TOR Goalie Goalie · Stolarz +2.2 goals saved
0 goals on 2.16 xG, 19 shots on goal
4:51 NYR Deserve to win Deserve to win · NYR takes the lead, 60–40%
TOR had led since 11:36 of the 1st, by as much as 63%
16:50 TOR No shift No shift · Cowan, 13:15 on the bench
No shift after 6:45 of the 3rd; 13 shifts (11:47) before that

Shot map

NYR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TOR shoots
Matthew Knies: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 1:03) William Nylander: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:30) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 4:46) Brandon Carlo: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 7:20) Mika Zibanejad: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 7:26) Alexis Lafrenière: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 7:41) Mika Zibanejad: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 7:58) Alexis Lafrenière: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 8:29) Adam Fox: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 8:40) Matthew Knies: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 10:26) Matthew Knies: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 10:34) Max Domi: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 11:09) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:21) Nick Robertson: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 11:36) William Nylander: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:47) Mika Zibanejad: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 15:55) Artemi Panarin: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 16:17) Alexis Lafrenière: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 16:57) Artemi Panarin: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 17:24) Will Cuylle: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 17:35) Will Cuylle: snap, 5 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 17:38) Matthew Knies: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 18:06) Vladislav Gavrikov: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:05) Will Borgen: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 19:50) John Tavares: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:37) Jake McCabe: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 0:48) Will Cuylle: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 1:19) Easton Cowan: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:32) Auston Matthews: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:33) Will Borgen: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:16) Vladislav Gavrikov: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 4:43) J.T. Miller: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 4:44) William Nylander: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 5:02) Easton Cowan: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 5:40) Morgan Rielly: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:50) Juuso Parssinen: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:23) John Tavares: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 8:42) Chris Tanev: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:03) Easton Cowan: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:29) Matt Rempe: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 9:43) Sam Carrick: tip-in, 32 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:49) John Tavares: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 10:16) J.T. Miller: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 11:32) Will Cuylle: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 11:51) Will Cuylle: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:22) Calle Jarnkrok: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:39) Max Domi: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 13:01) Nick Robertson: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:22) Alexis Lafrenière: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 14:39) Morgan Rielly: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 16:40) Sam Carrick: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 16:53) Bobby McMann: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:29) Max Domi: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 17:55) Max Domi: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 18:44) Will Cuylle: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:25) J.T. Miller: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.30 (P3 0:20) Urho Vaakanainen: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:06) Braden Schneider: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:15) J.T. Miller: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:21) Vladislav Gavrikov: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 2:36) Max Domi: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:50) Braden Schneider: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:33) Matt Rempe: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 5:31) Will Borgen: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 5:47) William Nylander: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 8:35) Jake McCabe: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:16) Nick Robertson: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 10:14) Alexis Lafrenière: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 10:35) Will Cuylle: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:33) Adam Fox: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 11:37) Will Cuylle: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:45) Artemi Panarin: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 11:50) Brandon Carlo: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 13:05) John Tavares: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 13:45) Morgan Rielly: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:03) Matt Rempe: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 16:47) J.T. Miller: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 16:51) Urho Vaakanainen: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:24) Alexis Lafrenière: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:44) Mika Zibanejad: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 19:09) Matthew Knies: GOAL, deflected, 4 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 11:48) Juuso Parssinen: GOAL, tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 4:51) Auston Matthews: GOAL, tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.13 (OT 0:58)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

New York Rangers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
10 Artemi Panarin 000 -1 40.14 2022:42
93 Mika Zibanejad 000 -1 40.37 0021:41
10 J.T. Miller 000 0 70.63 1021:12
13 Alexis Lafrenière 000 0 80.50 0019:31
43 Conor Sheary 000 0 10.00 0017:41
50 Will Cuylle 000 0 80.51 3016:21
73 Matt Rempe 000 0 40.29 6112:34
10 Sam Carrick 000 0 20.16 0212:24
14 Taylor Raddysh 000 +1 10.00 2011:08
42 Noah Laba 000 +1 00.00 1010:24
84 Adam Edstrom 000 0 00.00 1109:44
Defense
23 Adam Fox 000 -1 50.04 0125:36
44 Vladislav Gavrikov 000 0 30.14 1224:47
4 Braden Schneider 011 +1 20.02 1119:17
17 Will Borgen 000 0 40.14 0116:22
29 Matthew Robertson 000 0 00.00 1015:24
18 Urho Vaakanainen 000 +1 20.03 1013:44
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Igor Shesterkin 24222 .917 2.33 +0.33

Toronto Maple Leafs

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
34 Auston Matthews 101 +1 30.15 0322:32
88 William Nylander 022 +1 50.20 0121:13
89 Matthew Knies 101 0 70.57 1120:15
91 John Tavares 000 -1 40.33 0016:54
63 Matias Maccelli 000 0 20.00 0014:43
74 Bobby McMann 000 0 10.01 8014:24
11 Max Domi 000 0 50.35 0014:23
19 Calle Jarnkrok 000 -1 10.01 0112:18
53 Easton Cowan 000 0 30.08 1011:47
10 Nicolas Roy 000 0 00.00 2011:00
14 Nick Robertson 000 0 30.22 0010:35
81 Dakota Joshua 000 -1 00.00 3209:15
Defense
44 Morgan Rielly 011 -1 40.23 0021:10
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 011 +1 20.03 0221:04
22 Jake McCabe 000 0 20.01 0119:39
44 Simon Benoit 000 0 20.00 2219:21
25 Brandon Carlo 000 -1 30.12 1018:39
8 Chris Tanev 000 0 10.01 0017:52
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Anthony Stolarz 29128 .966 3.09 +2.09

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

New York Rangers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
8 J.T. Miller C +1.38 0.00 +0.41 +0.95 0.00 +0.03 0.00 — 21:12
71 Juuso Parssinen C +1.11 +0.75 +0.08 +0.23 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 8:41
17 Will Borgen D +0.80 0.00 +0.09 +0.66 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:22
50 Will Cuylle L +0.71 0.00 +0.33 +0.36 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 16:21
29 Matthew Robertson D +0.68 0.00 0.00 +0.68 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:24
13 Alexis Lafrenière L +0.63 0.00 +0.33 +0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:31
43 Conor Sheary L +0.55 0.00 0.00 +0.42 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 17:41
23 Adam Fox D +0.43 0.00 +0.02 +0.34 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 25:36
44 Vladislav Gavrikov D +0.41 0.00 +0.09 +0.22 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 24:47
31 Igor Shesterkin G +0.33 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.33 60:51
93 Mika Zibanejad C +0.32 0.00 +0.24 +0.08 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 21:41
4 Braden Schneider D +0.30 +0.70 +0.01 -0.40 0.00 0.00 -0.01 — 19:17
10 Artemi Panarin L +0.27 0.00 +0.09 +0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 22:42
42 Noah Laba C +0.23 0.00 0.00 +0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:24
73 Matt Rempe C +0.20 0.00 +0.19 -0.04 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 12:34
14 Taylor Raddysh R +0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.12 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 11:08
18 Urho Vaakanainen D 0.00 0.00 +0.02 +0.02 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 13:44
84 Adam Edstrom C -0.02 0.00 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 9:44
39 Sam Carrick C -0.31 0.00 +0.10 -0.50 0.00 -0.01 +0.10 — 12:24

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
41 Anthony Stolarz G +2.09 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +2.09 60:48
88 William Nylander R +1.11 +1.40 +0.13 -0.44 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 21:13
44 Morgan Rielly D +0.73 +0.55 +0.15 +0.07 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 21:10
34 Auston Matthews C +0.73 +0.75 +0.09 -0.28 0.00 +0.05 +0.11 — 22:32
23 Matthew Knies L +0.72 +0.75 +0.37 -0.24 -0.15 0.00 -0.01 — 20:15
22 Jake McCabe D +0.50 0.00 +0.01 +0.31 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 19:39
89 Nick Robertson L +0.29 0.00 +0.14 +0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:35
11 Max Domi C +0.20 0.00 +0.22 +0.01 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 — 14:23
25 Brandon Carlo D +0.18 0.00 +0.08 +0.12 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:39
74 Bobby McMann C +0.17 0.00 +0.01 +0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:24
8 Chris Tanev D -0.06 0.00 +0.01 -0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 17:52
55 Nicolas Roy C -0.13 0.00 0.00 -0.11 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 11:00
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D -0.14 +0.55 +0.02 -0.79 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 21:04
19 Calle Jarnkrok C -0.17 0.00 +0.01 -0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 12:18
53 Easton Cowan R -0.18 0.00 +0.05 -0.13 0.00 0.00 -0.10 — 11:47
81 Dakota Joshua C -0.26 0.00 0.00 -0.20 -0.15 -0.01 +0.10 — 9:15
91 John Tavares C -0.32 0.00 +0.22 -0.67 +0.15 -0.02 0.00 — 16:54
63 Matias Maccelli L -0.43 0.00 0.00 -0.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:43
2 Simon Benoit D -1.12 0.00 0.00 -1.03 -0.15 0.00 +0.06 — 19:21

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.