New York Rangers
Metropolitan Division, Eastern Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 22 | 29 | 6 | 50 | 151 | 180 | -29 | 43.9% |
|
Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Feb 20, 2026
Analysis
Summary
The New York Rangers are effectively out of the playoff race, with a 0.0% playoff probability and a projected finish well below the Eastern Conference cutoff. At 50 points through 57 games, their path would require an unprecedented surge combined with collapses from nearly the entire field ahead of them.
Record and Recent Performance
The Rangers’ 22-29-6 record translates to a 43.9% points percentage, which ranks last among realistic contenders and aligns with their weak team strength rating of 37.8%. They have been outscored badly at 151 goals for and 180 against, and their recent form rating of 20.0% suggests the team is trending downward rather than building momentum. Even with a slightly better away strength (44.4%) than at home (26.5%), the overall performance profile is that of a bottom-tier club.
The Competition
The Rangers sit 16th in the conference, already 19 points behind the Islanders at the projected cutline of 96.7 points and 22 points back of Montreal, which currently holds the top wild-card position. Multiple teams between 8th and 13th place, including the Islanders, Blue Jackets, Bruins, and Capitals, all project into the 90-plus point range, meaning New York would need to leapfrog at least eight teams to qualify. Given those teams’ higher strength ratings and playoff probabilities, there is no realistic avenue for the Rangers to gain meaningful ground.
Remaining Schedule
New York has 25 games remaining with a home-heavy split of 16 home and 9 away, but their poor home strength undermines what would normally be an advantage. The remaining schedule is rated as average, with opponent strength at 52.7%, nearly identical to league average. Based on current performance, the Rangers are expected to earn just 23.1 more points, putting them on pace for 73.1 total points, more than 20 points short of the playoff threshold.
Outlook
Barring a historic and highly improbable turnaround, the Rangers’ season is no longer about playoff positioning but about evaluation and long-term planning. The numbers strongly suggest a finish near the bottom of the conference, making this stretch run more about development, roster decisions, and draft positioning than postseason hope.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has already reached that threshold. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 0.0% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 70–76 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 95–97 points. Finishes above the cutline in 0.0% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Eastern Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 72 | 57 | 25 | 58.5% | 65.0% | 54.7% | 101.2 | 87.5% | |
| 5 | 70 | 57 | 25 | 59.0% | 65.0% | 54.5% | 99.3 | 81.8% | |
| 6 | 70 | 56 | 26 | 62.9% | 80.0% | 55.4% | 101.2 | 91.3% | |
| 7 | 69 | 57 | 25 | 59.9% | 75.0% | 56.0% | 97.7 | 70.1% | |
| 8 | 69 | 58 | 24 | 55.9% | 60.0% | 54.0% | 96.6 | 63.9% | |
| 9 | 65 | 59 | 23 | 54.2% | 55.0% | 53.5% | 91.2 | 20.4% | |
| 10 | 65 | 56 | 26 | 60.7% | 90.0% | 54.6% | 95.9 | 56.3% | |
| 11 | 63 | 57 | 25 | 55.5% | 65.0% | 53.8% | 91.8 | 20.4% | |
| 12 | 63 | 57 | 25 | 49.8% | 45.0% | 54.3% | 89.8 | 9.1% | |
| 13 | 61 | 57 | 25 | 46.7% | 40.0% | 53.4% | 87.9 | 5.7% | |
| 14 | 61 | 56 | 26 | 48.5% | 45.0% | 54.4% | 89.2 | 9.6% | |
| 15 | 58 | 57 | 25 | 43.8% | 40.0% | 52.2% | 84.9 | 1.5% | |
| 16 | 50 | 57 | 25 | 37.8% | 20.0% | 52.7% | 73.1 | 0.0% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37.8% | 26.5% | 44.4% | 41.3% | 20.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | Artemi Panarin | L | 52 | 19 | 38 | 57 | -16 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 20:54 | |
| 93 | Mika Zibanejad | C | 56 | 23 | 29 | 52 | -21 | 0 | 77 | 37 | 20:59 | |
| 8 | J.T. Miller | C | 48 | 14 | 22 | 36 | -22 | 0 | 99 | 19 | 20:39 | |
| 16 | Vincent Trocheck | C | 43 | 12 | 23 | 35 | -16 | 0 | 131 | 34 | 20:57 | |
| 13 | Alexis Lafrenière | L | 57 | 12 | 20 | 32 | -15 | 0 | 78 | 36 | 17:03 | |
| 23 | Adam Fox | D | 30 | 4 | 24 | 28 | +4 | 0 | 15 | 45 | 23:34 | |
| 50 | Will Cuylle | L | 57 | 13 | 14 | 27 | -19 | 0 | 202 | 57 | 17:09 | |
| 44 | Vladislav Gavrikov | D | 57 | 9 | 12 | 21 | -13 | 0 | 36 | 86 | 24:03 | |
| 42 | Noah Laba | C | 54 | 6 | 10 | 16 | -3 | 0 | 72 | 35 | 13:18 | |
| 14 | Taylor Raddysh | R | 54 | 8 | 5 | 13 | +1 | 0 | 44 | 27 | 11:57 | |
| 29 | Matthew Robertson | D | 47 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -6 | 0 | 70 | 62 | 17:14 | |
| 4 | Braden Schneider | D | 57 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -15 | 0 | 123 | 91 | 20:19 | |
| 22 | Jonny Brodzinski | C | 39 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -5 | 0 | 31 | 17 | 11:09 | |
| 39 | Sam Carrick | C | 57 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 0 | 81 | 28 | 10:30 | |
| 43 | Conor Sheary | L | 37 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -4 | 0 | 17 | 25 | 14:34 | |
| 4 | Carson Soucy | D | 46 | 3 | 5 | 8 | +4 | 0 | 71 | 66 | 17:12 | |
| 94 | Gabe Perreault | R | 24 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 0 | 18 | 14 | 14:58 | |
| 17 | Will Borgen | D | 50 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 0 | 72 | 70 | 18:29 | |
| 84 | Adam Edstrom | C | 24 | 2 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 0 | 48 | 13 | 9:34 | |
| 18 | Urho Vaakanainen | D | 27 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 9 | 21 | 13:53 | |
| 60 | Scott Morrow | D | 12 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 15:49 | |
| 78 | Brennan Othmann | L | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 33 | 4 | 10:57 | |
| 73 | Matt Rempe | C | 26 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 87 | 6 | 8:36 | |
| 25 | Anton Blidh | L | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7:39 | |
| 6 | Vincent Iorio | D | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 14:15 | |
| 37 | Justin Dowling | C | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7:11 | |
| 65 | Brett Berard | L | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17 | 9 | 10:32 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 05 | vs CAR | 0 - 2 | L |
| Jan 31 | @ PIT | 6 - 5 | L |
| Jan 29 | vs NYI | 1 - 2 | L |
| Jan 28 | @ NYI | 5 - 2 | L |
| Jan 26 | vs BOS | 4 - 3 | W (OT/SO) |
| Jan 23 | @ SJS | 3 - 1 | L |
| Jan 20 | @ LAK | 4 - 3 | L |
| Jan 19 | @ ANA | 5 - 3 | L |
| Jan 17 | @ PHI | 3 - 6 | W |
| Jan 14 | vs OTT | 4 - 8 | L |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 20:00 | vs Philadelphia Flyers | Home | 48.5% | 0.89 | PHI (63%) |
| Feb 28, 12:30 | vs Pittsburgh Penguins | Home | 62.9% | 0.74 | PIT (72%) |
| Mar 02, 19:00 | vs Columbus Blue Jackets | Home | 60.7% | 0.83 | CBJ (67%) |
| Mar 05, 19:00 | vs Toronto Maple Leafs | Home | 49.8% | 0.91 | TOR (62%) |
| Mar 07, 15:00 | @ New Jersey Devils | Away | 43.8% | 1.12 | NJD (50%) |
| Mar 09, 19:00 | @ Philadelphia Flyers | Away | 48.5% | 1.07 | PHI (53%) |
| Mar 10, 19:00 | vs Calgary Flames | Home | 44.6% | 1.04 | CGY (55%) |
| Mar 12, 20:00 | @ Winnipeg Jets | Away | 45.7% | 1.06 | WPG (53%) |
| Mar 14, 18:00 | @ Minnesota Wild | Away | 65.9% | 0.95 | MIN (60%) |
| Mar 16, 19:00 | vs Los Angeles Kings | Home | 49.6% | 0.82 | LAK (68%) |
| Total Expected (Next 10 games): | 9.4 pts | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.