hockeystats.io

Florida PanthersFLA 1–3 Final New Jersey DevilsNJD

Thursday, October 16, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Florida PanthersFLA 100 1 22
New Jersey DevilsNJD 012 3 33

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
1:59 FLA Evan Rodrigues (2) Brad Marchand (3), Seth Jones (3) · snap xG 0.34 1–0 ▶
2nd Period
5:48 NJD Jack Hughes (1)PP Jesper Bratt (3), Timo Meier (2) · snap xG 0.13 1–1 ▶
3rd Period
6:23 NJD Timo Meier (3) Simon Nemec (2), Brenden Dillon (2) · tip-in xG 0.04 1–2 ▶
11:47 NJD Nico Hischier (2) Dawson Mercer (2) · wrist xG 0.15 1–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

FLA 33%Deserve to win67% NJD
FLANJD
2.16Expected goals3.17
1Goals (no shootout)3
1.69Expected goals, 5 on 52.14
59Shot attempts67
36Unblocked attempts48
22Shots on goal33

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
6:15 NJD Deserve to win Deserve to win · NJD takes the lead, 61–39%
FLA had led since 1:59 of the 1st, by as much as 76%

Shot map

FLA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ NJD shoots
Jesper Bratt: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 0:18) Simon Nemec: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:18) Brad Marchand: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 1:56) Brad Marchand: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 1:57) Jeff Petry: slap, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:12) Arseny Gritsyuk: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 2:36) Uvis Balinskis: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 4:53) Carter Verhaeghe: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 5:10) Mackie Samoskevich: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 5:22) Sam Reinhart: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 6:30) Timo Meier: wrist, 132 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 10:12) Luke Hughes: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 11:06) Timo Meier: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 12:00) Timo Meier: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 12:21) Brett Pesce: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 13:48) Jonas Siegenthaler: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 14:56) Timo Meier: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 15:41) Timo Meier: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 15:53) Mackie Samoskevich: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 16:09) Jack Hughes: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 17:45) Jack Hughes: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 18:27) Jesper Bratt: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 18:37) Jesper Bratt: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 18:44) Dougie Hamilton: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 18:53) Evan Rodrigues: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:15) Seth Jones: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:34) Brenden Dillon: snap, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:54) Brenden Dillon: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:00) Luke Glendening: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 1:41) Brian Halonen: backhand, 27 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:42) Paul Cotter: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:58) Jonas Siegenthaler: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 2:01) Brad Marchand: backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.26 (P2 4:13) Evan Rodrigues: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 4:16) Ondrej Palat: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 4:42) Jonas Siegenthaler: snap, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:48) Jack Hughes: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 5:10) Arseny Gritsyuk: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 6:15) Dougie Hamilton: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 6:19) Jeff Petry: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 7:38) Seth Jones: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:18) Sam Bennett: backhand, 21 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 9:36) Sam Bennett: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 9:37) Mackie Samoskevich: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 9:41) Gustav Forsling: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:46) Cody Glass: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 12:50) Gustav Forsling: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 13:13) Mackie Samoskevich: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 14:18) Timo Meier: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 14:54) Jonas Siegenthaler: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:05) Brad Marchand: backhand, 137 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 15:47) Jack Hughes: slap, 23 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 16:28) Ondrej Palat: deflected, 10 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 16:49) Jack Hughes: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 16:56) Jack Hughes: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 17:08) Aaron Ekblad: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:36) Evan Rodrigues: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 1:05) Jeff Petry: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 1:40) Brenden Dillon: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:23) Luke Hughes: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:12) Brett Pesce: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:13) Dougie Hamilton: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:07) Jack Hughes: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 5:19) Anton Lundell: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:45) Jonah Gadjovich: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:30) Seth Jones: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:45) Connor Brown: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 8:40) Gustav Forsling: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 10:32) Brenden Dillon: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 11:39) Jack Hughes: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:58) Dougie Hamilton: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 14:07) Mackie Samoskevich: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 14:53) Dougie Hamilton: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 15:20) Brad Marchand: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 15:34) Eetu Luostarinen: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 16:49) Anton Lundell: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 18:12) Seth Jones: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 18:17) Seth Jones: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 18:23) Gustav Forsling: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:55) Dawson Mercer: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 19:23) Evan Rodrigues: GOAL, snap, 9 ft, xG 0.34 (P1 1:59) Jack Hughes: GOAL, snap, 20 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 5:48) Timo Meier: GOAL, tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 6:23) Nico Hischier: GOAL, wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 11:47)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Florida Panthers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
13 Sam Reinhart 000 0 60.11 3022:31
23 Carter Verhaeghe 000 0 40.04 0018:02
9 Sam Bennett 000 -1 40.09 3217:58
15 Anton Lundell 000 0 30.07 0217:19
63 Brad Marchand 011 -1 60.50 0016:09
11 Mackie Samoskevich 000 0 50.34 2114:57
17 Evan Rodrigues 101 -1 40.46 0014:41
27 Eetu Luostarinen 000 0 10.15 2213:59
71 Luke Kunin 000 0 00.00 0311:40
70 Jesper Boqvist 000 0 10.00 2009:51
18 A.J. Greer 000 0 00.00 3109:46
12 Jonah Gadjovich 000 0 30.01 2109:03
Defense
5 Aaron Ekblad 000 0 40.03 1125:42
3 Seth Jones 011 -1 60.14 6224:47
42 Gustav Forsling 000 -1 50.02 2323:11
77 Niko Mikkola 000 0 10.00 0017:58
2 Jeff Petry 000 0 40.09 1013:46
26 Uvis Balinskis 000 0 20.11 0009:35
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Daniil Tarasov 33330 .909 3.17 +0.17

New Jersey Devils

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
86 Jack Hughes 101 -1 110.88 0021:38
13 Nico Hischier 101 +2 20.15 1021:17
28 Timo Meier 112 +2 90.48 2120:08
91 Dawson Mercer 011 +2 10.12 1219:50
63 Jesper Bratt 011 0 40.14 1016:23
16 Connor Brown 000 -1 10.16 1213:45
12 Cody Glass 000 0 10.15 1112:59
81 Ondrej Palat 000 0 20.25 4111:45
81 Arseny Gritsyuk 000 -1 20.16 0010:34
41 Luke Glendening 000 0 10.20 0109:21
47 Paul Cotter 000 0 10.02 1109:07
Defense
7 Dougie Hamilton 000 -1 80.15 2121:58
22 Brett Pesce 000 0 40.05 0521:03
71 Jonas Siegenthaler 000 -1 40.06 2320:08
43 Luke Hughes 000 0 80.14 1019:43
5 Brenden Dillon 011 +2 40.05 2217:54
71 Simon Nemec 011 +2 20.02 1014:05
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jake Allen 22121 .955 2.16 +1.16

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Florida Panthers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
17 Evan Rodrigues C +1.09 +0.75 +0.30 +0.21 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 14:41
63 Brad Marchand L +0.79 +0.70 +0.33 -0.08 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 16:09
26 Uvis Balinskis D +0.52 0.00 +0.07 +0.28 +0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 9:35
27 Eetu Luostarinen C +0.43 0.00 +0.10 +0.07 +0.15 +0.02 +0.10 — 13:59
3 Seth Jones D +0.35 +0.55 +0.09 -0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 24:47
11 Mackie Samoskevich R +0.23 0.00 +0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 14:57
40 Daniil Tarasov G +0.17 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.17 59:05
9 Sam Bennett C +0.12 0.00 +0.06 -0.20 +0.15 +0.01 +0.10 — 17:58
12 Jonah Gadjovich L +0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 9:03
71 Luke Kunin C 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 11:40
70 Jesper Boqvist C -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.02 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 9:51
2 Jeff Petry D -0.03 0.00 +0.06 -0.07 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:46
10 A.J. Greer L -0.10 0.00 0.00 -0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 9:46
77 Niko Mikkola D -0.24 0.00 0.00 -0.18 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 17:58
5 Aaron Ekblad D -0.26 0.00 +0.02 -0.33 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 25:42
42 Gustav Forsling D -0.29 0.00 +0.02 -0.48 0.00 0.00 +0.17 — 23:11
15 Anton Lundell C -0.31 0.00 +0.05 -0.47 0.00 +0.04 +0.08 — 17:19
23 Carter Verhaeghe C -0.42 0.00 +0.03 -0.62 +0.15 +0.02 0.00 — 18:02
13 Sam Reinhart C -0.64 0.00 +0.07 -0.65 0.00 -0.04 -0.02 — 22:31

New Jersey Devils

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
28 Timo Meier R +2.26 +1.30 +0.31 +0.62 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 20:08
13 Nico Hischier C +1.54 +0.75 +0.10 +0.72 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 21:17
86 Jack Hughes C +1.54 +0.75 +0.57 -0.08 +0.30 -0.03 +0.02 — 21:38
91 Dawson Mercer C +1.45 +0.70 +0.08 +0.60 0.00 -0.01 +0.08 — 19:50
17 Simon Nemec D +1.35 +0.70 +0.01 +0.64 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:05
63 Jesper Bratt L +1.20 +0.70 +0.09 +0.75 -0.30 0.00 -0.04 — 16:23
34 Jake Allen G +1.16 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.16 60:00
5 Brenden Dillon D +0.98 +0.55 +0.03 +0.30 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 17:54
18 Ondrej Palat L +0.79 0.00 +0.17 +0.57 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 11:45
22 Brett Pesce D +0.63 0.00 +0.03 +0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.25 — 21:03
7 Dougie Hamilton D +0.21 0.00 +0.10 +0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 21:58
14 Luke Glendening C +0.21 0.00 +0.13 +0.08 0.00 -0.01 +0.01 — 9:21
43 Luke Hughes D +0.20 0.00 +0.09 +0.41 -0.30 0.00 0.00 — 19:43
12 Cody Glass C +0.13 0.00 +0.10 -0.03 0.00 +0.02 +0.05 — 12:59
47 Paul Cotter L +0.07 0.00 +0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 9:07
48 Brian Halonen L +0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.08 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 6:22
71 Jonas Siegenthaler D -0.17 0.00 +0.04 -0.34 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 20:08
81 Arseny Gritsyuk R -0.55 0.00 +0.10 -0.66 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:34
16 Connor Brown R -0.63 0.00 +0.10 -0.84 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 13:45

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.