hockeystats.io

Winnipeg JetsWPG 5–2 Final Philadelphia FlyersPHI

Thursday, October 16, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Winnipeg JetsWPG 122 5 15
Philadelphia FlyersPHI 011 2 17

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
5:45 WPG Vladislav Namestnikov (1) Nino Niederreiter (2), Gustav Nyquist (2) · wrist xG 0.08 1–0 ▶
2nd Period
7:01 WPG Mark Scheifele (4) Gabriel Vilardi (4) · wrist xG 0.06 2–0 ▶
16:22 PHI Owen Tippett (2) Trevor Zegras (3), Travis Sanheim (3) · snap xG 0.07 2–1 ▶
17:43 WPG Morgan Barron (3) Kyle Connor (3) · wrist xG 0.13 3–1 ▶
3rd Period
9:40 WPG Mark Scheifele (5)PP Kyle Connor (4), Alex Iafallo (1) · slap xG 0.15 4–1 ▶
17:39 PHI Matvei Michkov (1) Noah Juulsen (1), Sean Couturier (3) · snap xG 0.10 4–2 ▶
18:47 WPG Tanner Pearson (2)EN Unassisted · wrist xG 0.56 5–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

WPG 34%Deserve to win66% PHI
WPGPHI
1.84Expected goals2.02
5Goals (no shootout)2
0.97Expected goals, 5 on 51.08
38Shot attempts36
22Unblocked attempts27
15Shots on goal17

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
17:43 PHI Goalie Goalie · Ersson −2.2 goals saved
3 goals on 0.76 xG, 9 shots on goal
3rd Period
17:33 PHI Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Ersson, down 4–1
With 2:27 left; PHI scored at 17:39 of the 3rd (4–2)

Shot map

WPG shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ PHI shoots
Logan Stanley: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 1:09) Christian Dvorak: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 1:52) Christian Dvorak: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 1:53) Parker Ford: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:16) Nino Niederreiter: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 5:44) Luke Schenn: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:13) Vladislav Namestnikov: backhand, 26 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:37) Nino Niederreiter: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 15:47) Tyson Foerster: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 17:00) Noah Cates: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 17:01) Luke Schenn: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 18:03) Jamie Drysdale: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 18:45) Kyle Connor: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:00) Tyson Foerster: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 19:39) Noah Cates: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 0:18) Matvei Michkov: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:12) Travis Konecny: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:18) Parker Ford: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 2:44) Owen Tippett: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 3:35) Travis Konecny: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 3:43) Mark Scheifele: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 3:51) Jamie Drysdale: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 4:09) Tyson Foerster: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 5:15) Tyson Foerster: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 5:27) Trevor Zegras: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:33) Tyson Foerster: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 7:23) Noah Juulsen: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:40) Garnet Hathaway: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 10:14) Travis Konecny: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 13:45) Tyson Foerster: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 14:28) Christian Dvorak: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:12) Travis Konecny: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 15:40) Josh Morrissey: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:09) Alex Iafallo: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 18:37) Travis Konecny: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 1:12) Jamie Drysdale: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 1:36) Morgan Barron: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:49) Logan Stanley: snap, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:59) Nino Niederreiter: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 8:34) Alex Iafallo: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 9:21) Luke Schenn: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:10) Owen Tippett: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:50) Vladislav Namestnikov: GOAL, wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 5:45) Mark Scheifele: GOAL, wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 7:01) Owen Tippett: GOAL, snap, 38 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 16:22) Morgan Barron: GOAL, wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 17:43) Mark Scheifele: GOAL, slap, 24 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 9:40) Matvei Michkov: GOAL, snap, 35 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 17:39) Tanner Pearson: GOAL, wrist, 100 ft, xG 0.56 (P3 18:47)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Winnipeg Jets

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
81 Kyle Connor 022 +2 30.01 0018:47
55 Mark Scheifele 202 +1 30.26 0018:44
13 Gabriel Vilardi 011 +1 00.00 1016:46
19 Jonathan Toews 000 0 10.00 0015:45
62 Nino Niederreiter 011 +1 40.30 1014:50
7 Vladislav Namestnikov 101 +1 30.09 1014:20
70 Tanner Pearson 101 0 20.56 0014:05
9 Alex Iafallo 011 0 20.26 1114:03
14 Gustav Nyquist 011 +1 00.00 0013:03
45 Cole Koepke 000 -1 00.00 2011:27
36 Morgan Barron 101 0 30.13 2111:18
Defense
44 Josh Morrissey 000 +3 30.01 0024:21
2 Dylan DeMelo 000 +4 20.00 0223:17
4 Neal Pionk 000 -2 20.00 0322:26
8 Logan Stanley 000 0 20.06 2019:03
2 Luke Schenn 000 0 40.06 5015:51
24 Haydn Fleury 000 -1 10.00 1214:59
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Connor Hellebuyck 17215 .882 2.02 +0.02

Philadelphia Flyers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
14 Sean Couturier 011 0 00.00 0119:51
39 Matvei Michkov 101 0 30.12 0018:48
11 Travis Konecny 000 0 60.42 1118:12
10 Bobby Brink 000 -1 00.00 0017:38
46 Trevor Zegras 011 +1 10.01 0017:29
74 Owen Tippett 101 +1 40.22 1016:20
71 Tyson Foerster 000 0 60.68 1016:09
27 Noah Cates 000 -1 20.12 0215:18
22 Christian Dvorak 000 0 40.24 1113:16
17 Nikita Grebenkin 000 -2 00.00 2011:37
21 Garnet Hathaway 000 -2 10.05 4210:40
Defense
6 Travis Sanheim 011 -1 20.00 1324:35
9 Jamie Drysdale 000 -1 30.14 0124:08
8 Cam York 000 0 10.00 0122:32
24 Nick Seeler 000 -2 20.00 1220:05
47 Noah Juulsen 011 0 10.01 1111:00
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Samuel Ersson 14410 .714 1.28 -2.72

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Winnipeg Jets

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
81 Kyle Connor L +1.49 +1.40 +0.01 -0.07 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 18:47
55 Mark Scheifele C +1.32 +1.50 +0.17 -0.34 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 18:44
62 Nino Niederreiter R +1.21 +0.70 +0.19 +0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:50
36 Morgan Barron C +1.21 +0.75 +0.09 +0.32 0.00 +0.02 +0.03 — 11:18
70 Tanner Pearson L +1.06 +0.75 +0.36 -0.03 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:05
7 Vladislav Namestnikov C +0.96 +0.75 +0.06 +0.23 0.00 -0.06 -0.02 — 14:20
14 Gustav Nyquist R +0.79 +0.55 0.00 +0.26 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:03
9 Alex Iafallo L +0.65 +0.55 +0.17 -0.11 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 14:03
2 Dylan DeMelo D +0.48 0.00 0.00 +0.59 -0.15 0.00 +0.04 — 23:17
25 Parker Ford C +0.42 0.00 +0.06 +0.32 0.00 +0.01 +0.02 — 10:55
13 Gabriel Vilardi C +0.34 +0.70 0.00 -0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:46
24 Haydn Fleury D +0.23 0.00 0.00 +0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 14:59
64 Logan Stanley D +0.10 0.00 +0.04 +0.23 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 19:03
37 Connor Hellebuyck G +0.02 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.02 60:00
44 Josh Morrissey D +0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 24:21
45 Cole Koepke L +0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.03 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 11:27
5 Luke Schenn D -0.10 0.00 +0.04 -0.11 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:51
19 Jonathan Toews C -0.29 0.00 0.00 -0.03 -0.30 +0.06 -0.02 — 15:45
4 Neal Pionk D -0.36 0.00 0.00 -0.51 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 22:26

Philadelphia Flyers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
74 Owen Tippett R +1.36 +0.75 +0.14 +0.49 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:20
71 Tyson Foerster R +0.87 0.00 +0.44 +0.46 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 16:09
39 Matvei Michkov R +0.83 +0.75 +0.08 -0.13 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 18:48
6 Travis Sanheim D +0.81 +0.55 0.00 +0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 24:35
46 Trevor Zegras C +0.74 +0.70 +0.01 +0.22 -0.15 -0.02 -0.02 — 17:29
8 Cam York D +0.70 0.00 0.00 +0.67 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 22:32
22 Christian Dvorak C +0.52 0.00 +0.15 +0.32 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 13:16
47 Noah Juulsen D +0.49 +0.70 0.00 -0.27 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 11:00
14 Sean Couturier C +0.40 +0.55 0.00 -0.17 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 19:51
27 Noah Cates L +0.40 0.00 +0.08 +0.22 0.00 +0.01 +0.10 — 15:18
11 Travis Konecny R +0.19 0.00 +0.28 -0.12 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 18:12
10 Bobby Brink R +0.18 0.00 0.00 +0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:38
24 Nick Seeler D -0.09 0.00 0.00 -0.32 +0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 20:05
9 Jamie Drysdale D -0.09 0.00 +0.09 -0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 24:08
19 Garnet Hathaway R -0.42 0.00 +0.03 -0.71 +0.15 +0.01 +0.10 — 10:40
13 Adam Ginning D -0.44 0.00 0.00 -0.42 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:20
17 Jett Luchanko C -0.49 0.00 0.00 -0.51 0.00 -0.03 +0.05 — 10:40
29 Nikita Grebenkin R -0.57 0.00 0.00 -0.72 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 11:37
33 Samuel Ersson G -2.72 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -2.72 58:58

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.