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Carolina HurricanesCAR 4–1 Final Anaheim DucksANA

Thursday, October 16, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Carolina HurricanesCAR 112 4 32
Anaheim DucksANA 010 1 24

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
14:54 CAR Seth Jarvis (4) Shayne Gostisbehere (4) · snap xG 0.34 1–0 ▶
2nd Period
10:22 CAR Seth Jarvis (5)PP Jackson Blake (3), Shayne Gostisbehere (5) · slap xG 0.10 2–0 ▶
11:32 ANA Leo Carlsson (2) Alex Killorn (1), Drew Helleson (1) · wrist xG 0.08 2–1 ▶
3rd Period
2:38 CAR Alexander Nikishin (1) Sebastian Aho (5), Shayne Gostisbehere (6) · snap xG 0.14 3–1 ▶
15:48 CAR Sebastian Aho (1) Seth Jarvis (2) · wrist xG 0.47 4–1 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

CAR 75%Deserve to win25% ANA
CARANA
4.25Expected goals2.59
4Goals (no shootout)1
3.79Expected goals, 5 on 52.17
62Shot attempts53
44Unblocked attempts36
32Shots on goal24

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
16:10 CAR xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced ANA 1.32–0.31
In xG over 10 minutes, 6:10 to 16:10 of the 1st; goals 1–0

Shot map

CAR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ ANA shoots
William Carrier: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 0:32) Leo Carlsson: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:38) Olen Zellweger: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 4:09) Leo Carlsson: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 4:53) Alexander Nikishin: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:04) Andrei Svechnikov: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 6:23) Jordan Staal: deflected, 17 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 7:24) Mike Reilly: snap, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:03) Cutter Gauthier: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 10:30) Sebastian Aho: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 11:13) Nikolaj Ehlers: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 11:19) Troy Terry: slap, 167 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 11:40) Cutter Gauthier: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 12:58) Cutter Gauthier: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 13:25) Eric Robinson: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:36) Frank Vatrano: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:18) Mikael Granlund: wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 14:36) Shayne Gostisbehere: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 14:51) Taylor Hall: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 15:14) Jackson Blake: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 15:24) Jackson Blake: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 15:28) Jackson Blake: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 15:29) Jordan Martinook: deflected, 15 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 15:45) Seth Jarvis: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 16:09) Logan Stankoven: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 17:25) Frank Vatrano: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:46) Mason McTavish: slap, 26 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 18:06) Sean Walker: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:59) Jackson Blake: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 1:19) Mike Reilly: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 2:58) Jacob Trouba: snap, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:57) Seth Jarvis: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 6:55) Nikolaj Ehlers: slap, 25 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 8:03) Sebastian Aho: deflected, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:04) Logan Stankoven: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 9:14) Taylor Hall: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 9:20) Jalen Chatfield: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:08) Andrei Svechnikov: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.25 (P2 11:20) Frank Vatrano: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.25 (P2 11:39) Frank Vatrano: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 12:05) Cutter Gauthier: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 12:44) Cutter Gauthier: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 12:51) Radko Gudas: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:57) Jordan Martinook: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 14:49) Jordan Staal: deflected, 21 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 15:21) Mason McTavish: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 16:51) Jackson LaCombe: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 16:59) Alex Killorn: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 17:13) Mark Jankowski: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 17:41) Andrei Svechnikov: wrap-around, 4 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 17:53) Mark Jankowski: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 17:59) Beckett Sennecke: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:17) Mason McTavish: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 18:55) Leo Carlsson: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 19:43) Leo Carlsson: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.28 (P2 19:46) Leo Carlsson: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 0:31) Jordan Martinook: wrist, 165 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 0:33) Mikael Granlund: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 1:27) Jackson LaCombe: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 1:32) K'Andre Miller: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 2:08) K'Andre Miller: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.23 (P3 2:10) Seth Jarvis: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 2:25) Seth Jarvis: snap, 6 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 2:26) Olen Zellweger: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:55) Troy Terry: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 7:34) Ryan Poehling: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 8:17) Cutter Gauthier: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 10:41) Sebastian Aho: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:48) Jackson LaCombe: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:54) Leo Carlsson: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 14:17) Chris Kreider: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 14:23) Chris Kreider: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 14:58) Seth Jarvis: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 15:45) Jalen Chatfield: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:48) Mike Reilly: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 18:51) Seth Jarvis: GOAL, snap, 12 ft, xG 0.34 (P1 14:54) Seth Jarvis: GOAL, slap, 31 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 10:22) Leo Carlsson: GOAL, wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 11:32) Alexander Nikishin: GOAL, snap, 29 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 2:38) Sebastian Aho: GOAL, wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.47 (P3 15:48)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Carolina Hurricanes

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
11 Jordan Staal 000 0 20.19 3017:46
48 Jordan Martinook 000 0 30.17 1217:40
20 Sebastian Aho 112 +2 40.57 0016:38
24 Seth Jarvis 213 +3 70.97 0016:19
22 Logan Stankoven 000 +1 40.17 1016:08
71 Taylor Hall 000 0 40.25 1115:16
53 Jackson Blake 011 0 40.19 0014:55
37 Andrei Svechnikov 000 -1 50.49 0013:23
28 William Carrier 000 0 20.16 3112:51
27 Nikolaj Ehlers 000 +3 20.12 0012:45
50 Eric Robinson 000 -1 10.01 2111:07
77 Mark Jankowski 000 -1 20.20 0109:26
Defense
26 Sean Walker 000 -1 50.01 4223:22
19 K'Andre Miller 000 -1 30.42 2121:55
5 Jalen Chatfield 000 +1 30.02 0320:29
6 Mike Reilly 000 +2 40.06 0118:43
4 Shayne Gostisbehere 033 +2 20.09 0216:40
21 Alexander Nikishin 101 +1 50.17 2116:37
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Frederik Andersen 24123 .958 2.59 +1.59

Anaheim Ducks

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
83 Mason McTavish 000 -1 30.27 1118:43
61 Cutter Gauthier 000 -1 60.52 2018:20
45 Beckett Sennecke 000 -2 30.03 0117:59
91 Leo Carlsson 101 +1 80.78 0017:35
22 Chris Kreider 000 +1 30.12 1117:20
17 Alex Killorn 011 +1 30.04 0116:59
64 Mikael Granlund 000 -2 30.14 0016:48
19 Troy Terry 000 -1 20.10 0016:29
13 Nikita Nesterenko 000 0 00.00 2011:52
77 Frank Vatrano 000 -2 50.36 4011:38
25 Ryan Poehling 000 0 10.02 0110:24
49 Ross Johnston 000 0 00.00 2107:24
Defense
2 Jackson LaCombe 000 -2 40.13 3122:18
14 Drew Helleson 011 -1 10.00 0120:46
65 Jacob Trouba 000 0 30.01 6519:23
8 Olen Zellweger 000 0 60.05 1019:01
6 Radko Gudas 000 -1 10.02 7316:52
98 Pavel Mintyukov 000 0 10.00 2014:51
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Lukas Dostal 32428 .875 4.25 +0.25

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Carolina Hurricanes

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
24 Seth Jarvis C +5.27 +2.20 +0.63 +2.43 0.00 -0.02 +0.02 — 16:19
20 Sebastian Aho C +3.57 +1.45 +0.37 +1.81 0.00 -0.06 0.00 — 16:38
4 Shayne Gostisbehere D +3.30 +1.80 +0.06 +1.36 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 16:40
27 Nikolaj Ehlers L +1.82 0.00 +0.08 +1.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:45
6 Mike Reilly D +1.73 0.00 +0.04 +1.66 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 18:43
21 Alexander Nikishin D +1.69 +0.75 +0.11 +0.82 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 16:37
31 Frederik Andersen G +1.69 0.00 — — +0.10 — — +1.59 60:00
5 Jalen Chatfield D +0.99 0.00 +0.01 +1.02 -0.15 0.00 +0.11 — 20:29
37 Andrei Svechnikov R +0.57 0.00 +0.32 +0.27 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:23
53 Jackson Blake R +0.52 +0.70 +0.12 -0.11 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 14:55
50 Eric Robinson L +0.42 0.00 0.00 +0.41 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 11:07
77 Mark Jankowski L +0.42 0.00 +0.13 +0.41 -0.15 -0.02 +0.05 — 9:26
19 K'Andre Miller D +0.40 0.00 +0.28 +0.17 -0.05 0.00 +0.01 — 21:55
22 Logan Stankoven C +0.19 0.00 +0.11 +0.17 -0.05 0.00 -0.04 — 16:08
28 William Carrier L +0.03 0.00 +0.10 -0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 12:51
11 Jordan Staal C -0.04 0.00 +0.12 -0.31 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 17:46
48 Jordan Martinook L -0.17 0.00 +0.11 -0.38 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 17:40
26 Sean Walker D -0.31 0.00 +0.01 -0.40 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 23:22
71 Taylor Hall L -0.37 0.00 +0.16 -0.58 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 15:16

Anaheim Ducks

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
91 Leo Carlsson C +1.84 +0.75 +0.51 +0.57 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 17:35
17 Alex Killorn L +0.78 +0.70 +0.02 +0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 16:59
20 Chris Kreider L +0.60 0.00 +0.08 +0.47 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:20
1 Lukas Dostal G +0.25 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.25 59:31
65 Jacob Trouba D -0.04 0.00 +0.01 -0.41 +0.15 0.00 +0.21 — 19:23
23 Mason McTavish C -0.10 0.00 +0.17 -0.29 -0.05 +0.04 +0.03 — 18:43
98 Pavel Mintyukov D -0.32 0.00 0.00 -0.41 +0.15 0.00 -0.06 — 14:51
7 Radko Gudas D -0.34 0.00 +0.01 -0.34 -0.15 0.00 +0.13 — 16:52
61 Cutter Gauthier L -0.35 0.00 +0.34 -0.68 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 18:20
25 Ryan Poehling C -0.38 0.00 +0.02 -0.41 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 10:24
13 Nikita Nesterenko C -0.39 0.00 0.00 -0.52 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 11:52
44 Ross Johnston L -0.49 0.00 0.00 -0.52 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 7:24
19 Troy Terry R -0.53 0.00 +0.07 -0.57 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:29
2 Jackson LaCombe D -0.62 0.00 +0.09 -0.73 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 22:18
14 Drew Helleson D -0.74 +0.55 0.00 -1.34 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 20:46
51 Olen Zellweger D -0.90 0.00 +0.03 -0.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:01
45 Beckett Sennecke R -0.94 0.00 +0.02 -1.01 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:59
64 Mikael Granlund C -1.34 0.00 +0.09 -1.48 0.00 +0.05 0.00 — 16:48
77 Frank Vatrano R -1.59 0.00 +0.23 -1.82 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 11:38

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.