hockeystats.io

Seattle KrakenSEA 4–3 Final/OT Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

Saturday, October 18, 2025

Final/OT 1st2nd3rdOT T SOG
Seattle KrakenSEA 1201 4 28
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 1110 3 30

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
7:29 SEA Shane Wright (2)PP Jaden Schwartz (3), Mason Marchment (2) · wrist xG 0.34 1–0 ▶
14:56 TOR Morgan Rielly (2) Auston Matthews (2), Matthew Knies (6) · wrist xG 0.06 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
14:19 SEA Jani Nyman (2) Mason Marchment (3), Shane Wright (2) · wrist xG 0.12 2–1 ▶
16:01 TOR John Tavares (2) William Nylander (8) · wrist xG 0.04 2–2 ▶
17:44 SEA Vince Dunn (2) Eeli Tolvanen (1), Chandler Stephenson (1) · wrist xG 0.02 3–2 ▶
3rd Period
1:21 TOR John Tavares (3)PP William Nylander (9) · backhand xG 0.28 3–3 ▶
Overtime
3:06 SEA Josh Mahura (1) Jordan Eberle (4), Chandler Stephenson (2) · wrist xG 0.18 4–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

SEA 53%Deserve to win47% TOR
SEATOR
2.39Expected goals2.26
4Goals (no shootout)3
1.27Expected goals, 5 on 51.55
53Shot attempts61
36Unblocked attempts41
28Shots on goal30

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
9:23 TOR Deserve to win Deserve to win · TOR takes the lead, 63–37%
SEA had led since 7:26 of the 1st, by as much as 76%

Shot map

SEA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TOR shoots
Easton Cowan: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 0:52) Adam Larsson: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 4:36) Jordan Eberle: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 4:52) Chandler Stephenson: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 5:59) Jaden Schwartz: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 7:26) Jamie Oleksiak: wrist, 136 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 7:33) Easton Cowan: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 8:48) Auston Matthews: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 8:56) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 9:30) Auston Matthews: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 9:47) Chandler Stephenson: wrist, 145 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 10:58) Dakota Joshua: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 11:39) Steven Lorentz: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 11:54) Vince Dunn: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:29) Chris Tanev: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:17) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:22) Nick Robertson: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:16) Brandon Carlo: slap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:59) Nick Robertson: slap, 15 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 2:23) John Hayden: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:58) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:17) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:24) Steven Lorentz: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:27) Easton Cowan: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 4:03) Auston Matthews: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 4:07) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 4:57) Jake McCabe: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 6:36) Mason Marchment: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 7:30) Cale Fleury: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:02) Dakota Joshua: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 8:59) Jaden Schwartz: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 9:24) Tye Kartye: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:50) Adam Larsson: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 11:03) Jamie Oleksiak: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 11:42) Jordan Eberle: deflected, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:46) Adam Larsson: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:47) Matias Maccelli: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 15:57) Eeli Tolvanen: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 16:40) Eeli Tolvanen: tip-in, 31 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 16:47) Max Domi: wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 17:24) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 18:24) William Nylander: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 19:33) Auston Matthews: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:54) Nick Robertson: backhand, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:08) William Nylander: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:18) Chris Tanev: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:38) Brandon Carlo: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 1:51) Jaden Schwartz: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 2:00) Shane Wright: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 2:41) Ryan Lindgren: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:50) Mason Marchment: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:54) Josh Mahura: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:15) Auston Matthews: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 4:26) Chris Tanev: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:02) Adam Larsson: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:38) Dakota Joshua: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 7:53) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:59) Easton Cowan: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 9:23) Jake McCabe: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 9:47) Jani Nyman: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 11:17) Matty Beniers: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 11:24) Adam Larsson: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:34) Matty Beniers: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 11:36) Jaden Schwartz: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 12:06) Steven Lorentz: wrist, 123 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 16:25) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:56) Auston Matthews: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.07 (OT 0:18) Shane Wright: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.05 (OT 2:10) Shane Wright: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.12 (OT 2:23) Shane Wright: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.13 (OT 2:35) Shane Wright: GOAL, wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.34 (P1 7:29) Morgan Rielly: GOAL, wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 14:56) Jani Nyman: GOAL, wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 14:19) John Tavares: GOAL, wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 16:01) Vince Dunn: GOAL, wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:44) John Tavares: GOAL, backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.28 (P3 1:21) Josh Mahura: GOAL, wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.18 (OT 3:06)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Seattle Kraken

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
10 Matty Beniers 000 -1 30.18 0220:14
9 Chandler Stephenson 022 +1 30.17 0019:13
7 Jordan Eberle 011 0 20.04 0117:50
19 Jared McCann 000 -1 10.00 2017:08
71 Jaden Schwartz 011 0 40.54 2117:05
51 Shane Wright 112 +1 50.69 0016:04
27 Mason Marchment 022 +1 20.04 2015:50
17 Eeli Tolvanen 011 0 50.16 4015:30
24 Tye Kartye 000 0 20.01 3011:21
26 Ryan Winterton 000 0 00.00 2009:41
Defense
6 Adam Larsson 000 +1 80.14 2627:43
29 Vince Dunn 101 +1 50.03 0027:24
4 Jamie Oleksiak 000 -1 50.01 2120:44
55 Ryan Lindgren 000 -1 10.02 0317:17
28 Josh Mahura 101 +1 20.20 1315:06
8 Cale Fleury 000 0 10.01 3211:45
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joey Daccord 30327 .900 2.26 -0.74

Toronto Maple Leafs

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
34 Auston Matthews 011 0 80.41 1123:05
89 Matthew Knies 011 +1 20.00 4121:59
88 William Nylander 022 +1 30.10 0019:57
91 John Tavares 202 +1 40.32 0017:11
74 Bobby McMann 000 -2 00.00 4016:12
81 Dakota Joshua 000 0 30.33 7213:49
18 Steven Lorentz 000 0 40.07 4213:16
11 Max Domi 000 -2 40.04 0013:02
10 Nicolas Roy 000 0 00.00 1112:49
53 Easton Cowan 000 0 40.31 1112:48
14 Nick Robertson 000 -2 30.13 0012:18
63 Matias Maccelli 000 +1 20.11 0011:38
Defense
44 Morgan Rielly 101 -1 80.21 2124:13
22 Jake McCabe 000 0 20.08 3220:48
8 Chris Tanev 000 0 30.04 0120:32
25 Brandon Carlo 000 0 40.05 0017:51
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 000 0 50.06 0117:37
44 Simon Benoit 000 0 20.00 2216:22
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Anthony Stolarz 28424 .857 2.39 -1.61

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Seattle Kraken

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
51 Shane Wright C +1.72 +1.30 +0.45 +0.04 0.00 -0.04 -0.02 — 16:04
38 Jani Nyman R +1.30 +0.75 +0.09 +0.31 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 13:23
9 Chandler Stephenson C +1.23 +1.10 +0.11 +0.02 0.00 -0.02 +0.02 — 19:13
27 Mason Marchment L +1.10 +1.25 +0.02 0.00 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 15:50
17 Jaden Schwartz L +1.05 +0.70 +0.35 -0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 17:05
20 Eeli Tolvanen R +0.92 +0.70 +0.10 -0.02 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 15:30
7 Jordan Eberle R +0.49 +0.70 +0.03 -0.26 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 17:50
29 Vince Dunn D +0.48 +0.75 +0.02 +0.05 -0.30 0.00 -0.04 — 27:24
28 Josh Mahura D +0.47 +0.75 +0.13 -0.54 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 15:06
6 Adam Larsson D +0.38 0.00 +0.09 +0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.26 — 27:43
12 Tye Kartye L +0.08 0.00 +0.01 +0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:21
24 Jamie Oleksiak D +0.07 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 20:44
8 Cale Fleury D -0.06 0.00 +0.01 -0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 11:45
55 Ryan Lindgren D -0.09 0.00 +0.01 -0.06 -0.15 0.00 +0.11 — 17:17
15 John Hayden C -0.10 0.00 +0.02 -0.07 0.00 -0.03 -0.02 — 9:56
10 Matty Beniers C -0.15 0.00 +0.12 -0.32 0.00 -0.03 +0.08 — 20:14
26 Ryan Winterton C -0.29 0.00 0.00 -0.27 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 9:41
19 Jared McCann L -0.31 0.00 0.00 -0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:08
35 Joey Daccord G -0.74 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.74 63:06

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
91 John Tavares C +2.09 +1.50 +0.21 +0.36 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 17:11
88 William Nylander R +1.74 +1.40 +0.07 +0.28 0.00 +0.03 -0.04 — 19:57
34 Auston Matthews C +0.97 +0.70 +0.27 -0.06 0.00 +0.07 -0.01 — 23:05
53 Easton Cowan R +0.85 0.00 +0.20 +0.34 +0.30 0.00 +0.01 — 12:48
23 Matthew Knies L +0.67 +0.55 0.00 +0.11 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 21:59
63 Matias Maccelli L +0.60 0.00 +0.07 +0.55 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 11:38
44 Morgan Rielly D +0.57 +0.75 +0.14 -0.26 0.00 0.00 -0.05 — 24:13
81 Dakota Joshua C +0.49 0.00 +0.22 +0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 13:49
22 Jake McCabe D +0.48 0.00 +0.05 +0.33 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 20:48
18 Steven Lorentz C +0.40 0.00 +0.04 +0.25 0.00 +0.01 +0.10 — 13:16
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D +0.29 0.00 +0.04 +0.24 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 17:37
8 Chris Tanev D +0.20 0.00 +0.02 +0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 20:32
25 Brandon Carlo D +0.16 0.00 +0.03 +0.15 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:51
2 Simon Benoit D +0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 16:22
11 Max Domi C +0.04 0.00 +0.03 -0.05 +0.15 -0.03 -0.06 — 13:02
55 Nicolas Roy C -0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.06 -0.15 +0.02 +0.03 — 12:49
74 Bobby McMann C -0.59 0.00 0.00 -0.45 -0.15 +0.01 0.00 — 16:12
89 Nick Robertson L -0.59 0.00 +0.08 -0.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:18
41 Anthony Stolarz G -1.46 0.00 — — +0.15 — — -1.61 63:06

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.