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Nashville PredatorsNSH 1–4 Final Winnipeg JetsWPG

Saturday, October 18, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Nashville PredatorsNSH 001 1 31
Winnipeg JetsWPG 202 4 24

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
2:39 WPG Mark Scheifele (6)PP Kyle Connor (5), Alex Iafallo (2) · slap xG 0.14 0–1 ▶
10:25 WPG Nino Niederreiter (2) Vladislav Namestnikov (1), Dylan DeMelo (3) · backhand xG 0.42 0–2 ▶
2nd Period
No scoring
3rd Period
5:26 WPG Logan Stanley (2) Gustav Nyquist (3), Jonathan Toews (2) · slap xG 0.03 0–3 ▶
16:52 WPG Vladislav Namestnikov (2)PP Jonathan Toews (3), Nino Niederreiter (3) · wrist xG 0.11 0–4 ▶
18:56 NSH Michael Bunting (2) Ryan O'Reilly (1), Brady Skjei (2) · backhand xG 0.23 1–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

NSH 40%Deserve to win60% WPG
NSHWPG
3.44Expected goals4.05
1Goals (no shootout)4
2.47Expected goals, 5 on 53.03
78Shot attempts46
57Unblocked attempts39
31Shots on goal24

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
10:30 WPG xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced NSH 1.71–0.32
In xG over 10 minutes, 0:30 to 10:30 of the 1st; goals 2–0
2nd Period
8:40 NSH xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced WPG 1.23–0.01
In xG over 10 minutes, 19:20 of the 1st to 9:20 of the 2nd; neither team scored
12:05 WPG Goalie Goalie · Hellebuyck +2.2 goals saved
0 goals on 2.16 xG, 17 shots on goal

Shot map

NSH shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ WPG shoots
Mark Scheifele: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 0:56) Gabriel Vilardi: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 1:20) Alex Iafallo: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 2:05) Mark Scheifele: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 2:22) Filip Forsberg: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 3:55) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 4:14) Neal Pionk: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 4:58) Erik Haula: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:08) Luke Evangelista: poke, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 5:11) Justin Barron: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 5:59) Cole Koepke: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:56) Ryan O'Reilly: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 7:19) Nino Niederreiter: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.22 (P1 7:41) Kyle Connor: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 8:59) Gabriel Vilardi: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 9:05) Michael Bunting: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 12:26) Logan Stanley: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 12:58) Nick Perbix: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:21) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 14:35) Cole Smith: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:37) Vladislav Namestnikov: wrist, 138 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 16:05) Alex Iafallo: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 16:34) Jonathan Toews: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 16:36) Vladislav Namestnikov: tip-in, 24 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 18:33) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 19:29) Filip Forsberg: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 19:45) Roman Josi: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 19:58) Luke Evangelista: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 19:59) Brady Skjei: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 1:32) Michael Bunting: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 1:42) Brady Skjei: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 5:18) Michael Bunting: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 5:32) Filip Forsberg: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 6:01) Roman Josi: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 6:52) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 7:11) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 7:12) Erik Haula: slap, 21 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 7:50) Adam Wilsby: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:25) Steven Stamkos: wrap-around, 4 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 8:50) Neal Pionk: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:59) Roman Josi: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 9:11) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 9:12) Nick Perbix: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 9:13) Kyle Connor: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 10:20) Kyle Connor: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 10:22) Mark Scheifele: slap, 28 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 10:37) Kyle Connor: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 11:00) Fedor Svechkov: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 11:12) Fedor Svechkov: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 11:13) Michael Bunting: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 12:03) Adam Wilsby: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.28 (P2 12:05) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:26) Gustav Nyquist: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 13:22) Logan Stanley: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 16:31) Tanner Pearson: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 16:33) Fedor Svechkov: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:14) Nick Blankenburg: deflected, 8 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 17:16) Cole Smith: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:41) Spencer Stastney: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:58) Ryan O'Reilly: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 18:24) Kyle Connor: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 18:55) Mark Scheifele: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:08) Brady Skjei: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:46) Cole Koepke: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 0:31) Steven Stamkos: slap, 31 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 1:24) Neal Pionk: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 3:04) Dylan DeMelo: wrist, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:00) Spencer Stastney: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:19) Michael Bunting: tip-in, 26 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:24) Ozzy Wiesblatt: backhand, 97 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 6:03) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 6:55) Nick Perbix: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:59) Gabriel Vilardi: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 7:09) Luke Schenn: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 7:38) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 8:10) Erik Haula: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:25) Parker Ford: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 10:27) Adam Wilsby: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:19) Ryan O'Reilly: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 11:30) Kyle Connor: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 12:26) Jonathan Toews: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 13:36) Cole Koepke: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 14:56) Kyle Connor: slap, 23 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 15:37) Ryan O'Reilly: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 18:00) Ryan O'Reilly: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 18:09) Gustav Nyquist: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:23) Ryan O'Reilly: slap, 32 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:39) Ryan O'Reilly: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 18:52) Filip Forsberg: deflected, 8 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 19:28) Justin Barron: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 19:33) Spencer Stastney: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:41) Mark Scheifele: GOAL, slap, 21 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 2:39) Nino Niederreiter: GOAL, backhand, 4 ft, xG 0.42 (P1 10:25) Logan Stanley: GOAL, slap, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 5:26) Vladislav Namestnikov: GOAL, wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 16:52) Michael Bunting: GOAL, backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.23 (P3 18:56)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Nashville Predators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
9 Filip Forsberg 000 0 80.43 3021:58
90 Ryan O'Reilly 011 0 80.41 1218:52
77 Luke Evangelista 000 -1 50.17 0018:22
91 Steven Stamkos 000 0 70.50 0018:06
58 Michael Bunting 101 0 60.56 0017:04
56 Erik Haula 000 -1 40.15 1015:34
9 Fedor Svechkov 000 -1 70.16 0114:30
22 Cole Smith 000 0 20.02 4113:47
17 Tyson Jost 000 0 00.00 0013:08
47 Michael McCarron 000 0 00.00 3011:51
89 Ozzy Wiesblatt 000 0 20.00 3009:55
Defense
59 Roman Josi 000 0 70.18 2124:19
76 Brady Skjei 011 -1 50.13 0020:01
48 Nick Perbix 000 -2 50.06 0017:38
72 Justin Barron 000 0 20.10 0217:32
2 Adam Wilsby 000 0 50.32 0015:22
24 Spencer Stastney 000 0 30.06 0014:56
3 Nick Blankenburg 000 +1 20.20 2012:04
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Juuse Saros 24420 .833 4.05 +0.05

Winnipeg Jets

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
55 Mark Scheifele 101 0 50.58 1119:19
13 Gabriel Vilardi 000 0 30.39 1018:47
81 Kyle Connor 011 0 70.93 0018:32
9 Alex Iafallo 011 0 30.33 2117:08
19 Jonathan Toews 022 0 20.36 0015:56
7 Vladislav Namestnikov 112 +1 40.19 1013:49
62 Nino Niederreiter 112 +1 20.64 1013:27
70 Tanner Pearson 000 0 10.15 0112:42
14 Gustav Nyquist 011 +1 20.12 1012:30
36 Morgan Barron 000 0 00.00 1112:03
45 Cole Koepke 000 0 30.15 1111:30
Defense
44 Josh Morrissey 000 0 10.00 1224:09
4 Neal Pionk 000 +1 30.03 0121:24
2 Dylan DeMelo 011 -1 10.01 0421:09
24 Haydn Fleury 000 0 10.00 1117:29
8 Logan Stanley 101 +2 40.11 1116:33
2 Luke Schenn 000 0 20.03 2114:04
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Connor Hellebuyck 31130 .968 3.44 +2.44

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Nashville Predators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
58 Michael Bunting L +1.29 +0.75 +0.36 +0.05 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 17:04
90 Ryan O'Reilly C +1.03 +0.70 +0.26 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 +0.12 — 18:52
37 Nick Blankenburg D +0.84 0.00 +0.13 +0.56 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 12:04
59 Roman Josi D +0.82 0.00 +0.11 +0.81 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 24:19
40 Fedor Svechkov C +0.48 0.00 +0.11 +0.31 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 14:30
77 Luke Evangelista R +0.42 0.00 +0.11 +0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:22
83 Adam Wilsby D +0.28 0.00 +0.21 +0.10 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:22
74 Juuse Saros G +0.05 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.05 59:30
47 Michael McCarron C -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:51
89 Ozzy Wiesblatt C -0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 9:55
9 Filip Forsberg L -0.08 0.00 +0.28 -0.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 21:58
20 Justin Barron D -0.12 0.00 +0.07 -0.27 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 17:32
17 Tyson Jost C -0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 13:08
24 Spencer Stastney D -0.29 0.00 +0.04 -0.47 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 14:56
91 Steven Stamkos C -0.38 0.00 +0.32 -0.57 -0.15 +0.02 0.00 — 18:06
76 Brady Skjei D -0.56 +0.55 +0.08 -1.03 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 20:01
36 Cole Smith R -0.66 0.00 +0.01 -0.72 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 13:47
56 Erik Haula L -0.86 0.00 +0.10 -0.94 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 15:34
48 Nick Perbix D -1.18 0.00 +0.04 -1.16 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 17:38

Winnipeg Jets

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
37 Connor Hellebuyck G +2.44 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +2.44 59:51
81 Kyle Connor L +2.23 +0.70 +0.61 +0.94 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:32
62 Nino Niederreiter R +2.15 +1.30 +0.42 +0.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:27
55 Mark Scheifele C +2.15 +0.75 +0.38 +1.00 0.00 +0.01 +0.01 — 19:19
7 Vladislav Namestnikov C +1.94 +1.45 +0.13 +0.39 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 13:49
64 Logan Stanley D +1.57 +0.75 +0.07 +0.74 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 16:33
14 Gustav Nyquist R +1.41 +0.70 +0.08 +0.63 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:30
19 Jonathan Toews C +1.15 +1.25 +0.24 -0.48 +0.15 -0.02 +0.02 — 15:56
2 Dylan DeMelo D +1.07 +0.55 0.00 +0.17 +0.15 0.00 +0.20 — 21:09
13 Gabriel Vilardi C +0.98 0.00 +0.25 +0.76 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 18:47
44 Josh Morrissey D +0.76 0.00 0.00 +0.83 -0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 24:09
9 Alex Iafallo L +0.38 +0.55 +0.22 -0.47 0.00 +0.01 +0.07 — 17:08
24 Haydn Fleury D +0.24 0.00 0.00 +0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:29
45 Cole Koepke L +0.13 0.00 +0.10 -0.14 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 11:30
5 Luke Schenn D -0.08 0.00 +0.02 -0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 14:04
4 Neal Pionk D -0.25 0.00 +0.02 -0.28 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 21:24
25 Parker Ford C -0.25 0.00 +0.01 -0.15 -0.15 -0.01 +0.05 — 11:38
36 Morgan Barron C -0.27 0.00 0.00 -0.14 -0.15 -0.03 +0.05 — 12:03
70 Tanner Pearson L -0.47 0.00 +0.10 -0.47 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 12:42

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.