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Calgary FlamesCGY 1–6 Final Vegas Golden KnightsVGK

Saturday, October 18, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Calgary FlamesCGY 100 1 27
Vegas Golden KnightsVGK 321 6 28

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
0:46 VGK Mitch Marner (1) Ivan Barbashev (4) · wrist xG 0.16 0–1 ▶
3:42 CGY Jonathan Huberdeau (1)PP Nazem Kadri (4), MacKenzie Weegar (2) · wrist xG 0.25 1–1 ▶
5:39 VGK Tomas Hertl (3)PP Mark Stone (10), Jack Eichel (7) · snap xG 0.21 1–2 ▶
15:03 VGK Mark Stone (1) Jack Eichel (8) · wrist xG 0.13 1–3 ▶
2nd Period
3:57 VGK Ivan Barbashev (2) Kaedan Korczak (1), Jeremy Lauzon (2) · tip-in xG 0.07 1–4 ▶
19:06 VGK Mitch Marner (2)PP Mark Stone (11), Jack Eichel (9) · backhand xG 0.20 1–5 ▶
3rd Period
2:37 VGK Mark Stone (2)PP Tomas Hertl (3), Jack Eichel (10) · wrist xG 0.43 1–6 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

CGY 37%Deserve to win63% VGK
CGYVGK
2.47Expected goals3.23
1Goals (no shootout)6
1.68Expected goals, 5 on 52.05
65Shot attempts54
42Unblocked attempts38
27Shots on goal28

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
15:03 CGY Goalie Goalie · Wolf −2.4 goals saved
3 goals on 0.58 xG, 7 shots on goal
2nd Period
19:06 VGK Deserve to win Deserve to win · VGK takes the lead, 64–36%
CGY had led since 4:12 of the 1st, by as much as 66%
20:00 CGY Goalie change Goalie change · Cooley in for Wolf
The start of the 3rd; Wolf had allowed 5 goals on 19 shots (1.97 xG)
3rd Period
4:10 VGK xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced CGY 1.15–0.13
In xG over 10 minutes, 14:30 of the 2nd to 4:30 of the 3rd; goals 2–0
15:40 VGK No shift No shift · Stone, 14:03 on the bench
No shift after 5:40 of the 3rd; 20 shifts (13:12) before that

Shot map

CGY shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ VGK shoots
Samuel Honzek: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 1:17) Tomas Hertl: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 3:11) Jonathan Huberdeau: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 3:41) Zayne Parekh: slap, 68 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 4:12) Brandon Saad: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:29) Jack Eichel: wrist, 93 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 7:07) Jonathan Huberdeau: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 8:34) Mikael Backlund: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:01) Kaedan Korczak: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 9:23) William Karlsson: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:29) Samuel Honzek: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:03) Joel Farabee: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 11:24) Jake Bean: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 11:36) Kevin Bahl: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:45) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 149 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 12:50) Jonathan Huberdeau: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 16:26) Matt Coronato: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 16:41) Connor Zary: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 17:08) Yegor Sharangovich: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:04) Zayne Parekh: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 18:17) Mitch Marner: deflected, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 19:08) Mark Stone: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:58) Mark Stone: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 0:36) Jack Eichel: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 0:48) Mitch Marner: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:39) Alexander Holtz: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 2:13) Alexander Holtz: tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 2:25) Jake Bean: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:44) Matt Coronato: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 3:06) Mark Stone: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 3:45) Zayne Parekh: wrist, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:26) Keegan Kolesar: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:30) Ben Hutton: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:49) Jack Eichel: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 9:34) Shea Theodore: wrist, 186 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 11:17) Reilly Smith: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:41) Blake Coleman: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:04) Ryan Lomberg: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:53) Joel Hanley: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 14:09) Pavel Dorofeyev: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 14:57) Morgan Frost: snap, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:50) Alexander Holtz: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 18:06) Ben Hutton: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 18:18) Zayne Parekh: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:21) Jake Bean: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:25) Shea Theodore: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 19:45) Blake Coleman: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:48) Ryan Lomberg: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 1:41) William Karlsson: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 1:59) Tomas Hertl: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 2:35) Blake Coleman: backhand, 99 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 4:20) William Karlsson: backhand, 20 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:30) Mitch Marner: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 6:04) Mitch Marner: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 6:05) Connor Zary: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 6:18) Shea Theodore: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:00) Zayne Parekh: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 7:10) Mikael Backlund: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:35) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 8:08) Connor Zary: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 9:08) Zayne Parekh: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 9:34) Tomas Hertl: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 9:54) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 10:25) Samuel Honzek: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 12:21) MacKenzie Weegar: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 13:52) Jeremy Lauzon: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 14:13) Jeremy Lauzon: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:24) Yegor Sharangovich: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 14:40) Joel Farabee: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 15:43) Jack Eichel: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 16:36) Connor Zary: deflected, 8 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 18:33) Samuel Honzek: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 19:15) Joel Farabee: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 19:43) Mitch Marner: GOAL, wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 0:46) Jonathan Huberdeau: GOAL, wrist, 3 ft, xG 0.25 (P1 3:42) Tomas Hertl: GOAL, snap, 15 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 5:39) Mark Stone: GOAL, wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 15:03) Ivan Barbashev: GOAL, tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 3:57) Mitch Marner: GOAL, backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 19:06) Mark Stone: GOAL, wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.43 (P3 2:37)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Calgary Flames

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
10 Jonathan Huberdeau 101 -1 50.67 0118:48
91 Nazem Kadri 011 -1 90.19 0018:15
47 Connor Zary 000 0 60.31 1016:52
86 Joel Farabee 000 0 40.35 0015:53
20 Blake Coleman 000 -1 40.01 1115:23
27 Matt Coronato 000 -2 30.15 0015:09
16 Morgan Frost 000 -1 10.01 0015:03
17 Yegor Sharangovich 000 -1 40.09 1215:00
11 Mikael Backlund 000 -1 20.02 0013:03
43 Adam Klapka 000 0 20.00 4012:52
29 Samuel Honzek 000 -1 40.20 2012:51
94 Ryan Lomberg 000 0 20.10 6112:18
Defense
52 MacKenzie Weegar 011 -2 40.00 1024:00
4 Rasmus Andersson 000 -1 10.00 1119:30
44 Joel Hanley 000 -1 10.07 2018:55
24 Jake Bean 000 0 30.03 1118:52
19 Zayne Parekh 000 0 70.23 0017:50
7 Kevin Bahl 000 -2 30.03 2317:41
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Dustin Wolf 19514 .737 1.97 -3.03
Devin Cooley 918 .889 1.25 +0.25

Vegas Golden Knights

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
93 Mitch Marner 202 +1 80.61 1318:17
48 Tomas Hertl 112 +1 40.58 1016:32
9 Jack Eichel 044 +2 40.42 0016:08
71 William Karlsson 000 0 40.19 0116:06
16 Pavel Dorofeyev 000 0 10.04 1215:46
20 Brandon Saad 000 0 20.02 0115:01
19 Reilly Smith 000 0 30.01 0014:20
49 Ivan Barbashev 112 +3 10.07 1014:13
10 Alexander Holtz 000 0 60.25 0014:08
55 Keegan Kolesar 000 0 10.01 1113:14
61 Mark Stone 224 +2 60.79 0013:12
15 Colton Sissons 000 0 10.00 0011:28
Defense
3 Brayden McNabb 000 0 10.00 2323:06
27 Shea Theodore 000 0 50.07 0722:34
28 Zach Whitecloud 000 +1 00.00 2118:04
6 Kaedan Korczak 011 +2 20.00 1018:01
5 Jeremy Lauzon 011 +2 30.09 4017:58
17 Ben Hutton 000 +1 20.07 0217:30
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Adin Hill 27126 .963 2.47 +1.47

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Calgary Flames

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
10 Jonathan Huberdeau L +1.28 +0.75 +0.44 -0.11 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 18:48
91 Nazem Kadri C +0.66 +0.70 +0.12 -0.02 -0.15 +0.07 -0.06 — 18:15
86 Joel Farabee L +0.35 0.00 +0.23 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 15:53
1 Devin Cooley G +0.25 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.25 20:00
52 MacKenzie Weegar D +0.22 +0.55 0.00 -0.36 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 24:00
17 Yegor Sharangovich C +0.18 0.00 +0.06 +0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 15:00
24 Jake Bean D +0.17 0.00 +0.02 +0.11 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 18:52
43 Adam Klapka R +0.04 0.00 0.00 -0.11 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 12:52
44 Joel Hanley D 0.00 0.00 +0.05 +0.12 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 18:55
47 Connor Zary C -0.03 0.00 +0.20 -0.26 0.00 +0.03 0.00 — 16:52
29 Samuel Honzek L -0.13 0.00 +0.13 -0.24 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:51
70 Ryan Lomberg L -0.13 0.00 +0.06 -0.25 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 12:18
16 Morgan Frost C -0.15 0.00 +0.01 -0.11 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 — 15:03
4 Rasmus Andersson D -0.25 0.00 0.00 -0.13 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 19:30
19 Zayne Parekh D -0.26 0.00 +0.15 -0.39 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:50
20 Blake Coleman L -0.37 0.00 +0.01 -0.56 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 15:23
11 Mikael Backlund C -0.52 0.00 +0.01 -0.46 0.00 -0.07 0.00 — 13:03
27 Matt Coronato R -0.55 0.00 +0.10 -0.63 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:09
7 Kevin Bahl D -0.95 0.00 +0.02 -1.08 0.00 0.00 +0.11 — 17:41
32 Dustin Wolf G -3.03 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -3.03 40:00

Vegas Golden Knights

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
61 Mark Stone R +3.97 +2.90 +0.52 +0.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:12
9 Jack Eichel C +3.23 +2.35 +0.27 +0.70 0.00 -0.08 -0.02 — 16:08
93 Mitch Marner R +2.70 +1.50 +0.40 +0.69 0.00 0.00 +0.11 — 18:17
49 Ivan Barbashev L +2.53 +1.45 +0.04 +1.05 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:13
48 Tomas Hertl C +2.36 +1.45 +0.37 +0.50 0.00 +0.04 0.00 — 16:32
33 Adin Hill G +1.47 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.47 59:58
6 Kaedan Korczak D +1.36 +0.70 0.00 +0.68 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:01
5 Jeremy Lauzon D +0.92 +0.55 +0.06 +0.46 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 17:58
2 Zach Whitecloud D +0.66 0.00 0.00 +0.46 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 18:04
17 Ben Hutton D +0.41 0.00 +0.05 +0.31 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 17:30
26 Alexander Holtz R +0.35 0.00 +0.17 +0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 14:08
27 Shea Theodore D +0.29 0.00 +0.05 -0.26 +0.15 0.00 +0.35 — 22:34
71 William Karlsson C +0.27 0.00 +0.12 +0.13 0.00 +0.01 +0.01 — 16:06
16 Pavel Dorofeyev R +0.20 0.00 +0.03 +0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 15:46
19 Reilly Smith R +0.20 0.00 +0.01 +0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:20
3 Brayden McNabb D 0.00 0.00 0.00 +0.02 -0.15 0.00 +0.13 — 23:06
10 Colton Sissons C -0.47 0.00 0.00 -0.49 0.00 +0.04 -0.02 — 11:28
20 Brandon Saad L -0.48 0.00 +0.01 -0.52 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 15:01
55 Keegan Kolesar R -0.63 0.00 0.00 -0.51 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 13:14

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.